Saudi Oil-Export Route Threatened

“Hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militia are raising the threat to a crucial oil-export route that the kingdom has been using to work around the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz.

 

A pipeline routing oil west across the country to a port on the Red Sea has allowed Saudi Arabia to keep up export volumes during the U.S.'s war with Iran. From there, its tankers sail through the chokepoint at Bab al-Mandeb and out to its main markets in Asia, stabilizing prices as shipping in the Persian Gulf has been bottled up.

 

So far, Bab al-Mandeb has been kept open by Saudi diplomacy with the Houthis, whose intermittent attacks crippled Red Sea shipping on and off for the past three years. But a 2022 truce underlying those efforts is breaking down.

 

The Houthis fired drones and missiles at a civilian airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia after the militant group accused the kingdom of bombing an airport runway in the Houthi-controlled capital of San'a this past week to prevent an Iranian plane from landing.

 

Then on Thursday, the Houthis' reclusive leader lashed out at Saudi Arabia in a televised speech. "The real equation is this: San'a airport for Riyadh airport," said Abdul Malik al-Houthi. "The equation is airports for airports, seaports for seaports, and blockade for blockade."

 

The militant leader threatened to target Saudi oil facilities if Riyadh, which led a coalition against the Houthi insurgency over a decade ago, returns to war in Yemen. He called on his supporters to rally Friday to protest restrictions on free movement in and out of the country, which the Saudis and their Yemeni allies have imposed for years. The Houthis are expected to test Saudi resolve again by trying to land another Iranian plane in San'a soon.

 

While al-Houthi said little to indicate an imminent return to attacks against ships transiting the Red Sea, officials and analysts assess that the regional dynamics could lead the militants back to taking shots at ships passing by Yemeni shores.

 

"The situation in the Red Sea is once again deteriorating," Kaja Kallas, the European Commission's head of foreign and security policy, said Friday in a visit to Djibouti, which supports Western efforts to guard the Red Sea. "Recent Houthi missile attacks against Saudi Arabia, breaking a four-year truce, are a warning that instability on land quickly becomes insecurity at sea."

 

The last Houthi shutdown of traffic drew a U.S. military response in 2025 that battered the group. The attacks, however, continued sporadically and snarled shipping for months.

 

This time, any disruption would occur while transit through Hormuz is choked off by Iranian attacks. Consulting firm Capital Economics predicts a prolonged, simultaneous closure of the waterways -- or significant damage to Saudi pipeline or port infrastructure -- could push the global economy into Depression.

 

The war with Iran and its stranglehold on Hormuz have taken millions of barrels of oil a day off the market. Global consumers have made up for the gap by pulling down inventories, but they will eventually run low.

 

Workarounds have bought some time. Saudi Arabia has used the pipeline running across the Arabian Peninsula to export about four million barrels a day of crude via the Red Sea, keeping its overall exports about 4.6 million barrels a day. That's down from 7.3 million barrels a day before the war, but the gap would be a lot wider without the Red Sea barrels.

 

Analysts say the Houthis feel emboldened by a perception that Iran has outmaneuvered the U.S., and see an opportunity to gain an advantage by pressing the Saudis, who have strong incentives to keep Yemen out of the regional conflict.

 

"The Houthis smell this, they know this," said April Longley Alley, a former senior political adviser to the United Nations' special envoy to Yemen. "They see an opportunity to up the ante."

 

The two sides appear closer to resuming at least low-level hostilities than at any time since reaching a truce in 2022. The deal was meant to trigger steps including an easing of Saudi restrictions on fuel entering Yemen's Red Sea port of Hodeidah and a resumption of commercial flights in and out of San'a, but there has been little progress.” [1]

 

1. World News: Saudi Oil-Export Route Threatened. Kalin, Stephen; al-Batati, Saleh.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 July 2026: A7.