"Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, wearing shorts at his seaside palace, sought a relaxed tone for his
first meeting with President Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan,
last September.
The 36-year-old crown prince ended
up shouting at Mr. Sullivan after he raised the 2018 killing of Saudi
journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The prince told Mr. Sullivan he never wanted to
discuss the matter again, said people familiar with the exchange. And the U.S.
could forget about its request to boost oil production, he told Mr. Sullivan.
The relationship between the U.S.
and Saudi Arabia has hit its lowest point in decades, with Mr. Biden saying in
2019 that the kingdom should be treated like a pariah over human-rights issues
such as Mr. Khashoggi's murder.
The political fissures have deepened since Russia's problem
came up, senior Saudi and U.S. officials said. The White House wanted the
Saudis to pump more crude, both to tame oil prices and undercut Moscow's
finances. The kingdom hasn't budged, keeping in line with Russian interests.
Prince Mohammed wants foremost to be
recognized as the de facto Saudi ruler and future king. The crown prince runs
the country's day-to-day affairs for his ailing father, King Salman bin
Abdulaziz al Saud. But Mr. Biden hasn't yet met or spoken directly with the
prince. Last summer, the president told Americans to blame low Saudi oil output
for rising gas prices.
After the publication of this
article online, Adrianne Watson, a White House National Security Council
spokeswoman, reiterated President Biden's stated commitment that the U.S. would
support the kingdom's territorial defense. She cited diplomatic achievements in
recent weeks, including the condemnation by Persian Gulf states, including
Saudi Arabia, of Russia. She said Mr. Sullivan didn't discuss oil production
with Prince Mohammed at their September meeting and that "there was no
shouting."
A Saudi official at the kingdom's
Washington embassy said after publication of this article online that the
relationship between the U.S. and the kingdom remains strong. He called the
meeting between Mr. Sullivan and Prince Mohammed cordial and respectful.
"Over the course of the last 77
years of Saudi-U.S relations, there have been many disagreements and differing
points of view over many issues, but that has never stopped the two countries
from finding a way to work together," the official said.
The risk for the U.S. is that Riyadh
will align more closely with China and Russia, or at least remain neutral on issues
of vital interest to Washington, as it has on Russia, Saudi officials said.
The U.S.-Saudi partnership was built
on the premise that the American military would defend the kingdom from hostile
powers to ensure the uninterrupted flow of oil to world markets. In turn,
successive Saudi kings maintained a steady supply of crude at reasonable
prices, with only occasional disruptions. But the economic underpinning of the
relationship has changed.
The Saudis no longer sell much oil
to the U.S. and are instead the biggest supplier to China, reorienting Riyadh's
commercial and political interests.
U.S. officials, including White
House Middle East coordinator Brett McGurk, have visited the kingdom repeatedly
to try to heal the breach, with an eye to addressing Saudi concerns about
security threats from Iran and the Houthi rebels Iran backs in Yemen. Yet with
Mr. Biden opposed to any broad concessions to the Saudis, the officials
acknowledge making only modest progress.
The White House has stopped asking the Saudis to pump more
oil. Instead, it asks only that Saudi Arabia not do anything that would hurt
the West's efforts against Russia, a senior U.S. official said.
The Saudis cut short a high-level
military delegation to Washington last summer and called off a visit last fall
by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. A planned visit last month by Secretary of
State Antony Blinken was canceled.
Some close Biden aides, including
Mr. McGurk, have been pushing for political detente with the Saudis, which they
see as essential for the U.S. to advance its Middle East interests on
everything from oil prices to establishing normal diplomatic relations between
Saudi Arabia and Israel, according to officials in both countries.
Rapprochement won't be easy. Mr. Biden faces opposition to improving
ties with the Saudis from Democratic and Republican lawmakers, especially since
Prince Mohammed hasn't shown a willingness to retreat from a lucrative alliance
with Moscow to keep a lid on oil-production levels.
White House officials this year worked
to set up a call between Mr. Biden, King Salman and Prince Mohammed, said
people familiar with the matter. As the date for the Feb. 9 call approached,
Saudi officials told the Biden administration that the crown prince wouldn't
take part, these people said.
The snub propelled private
frustrations into the open after The Wall Street Journal reported what
happened.
The unlikely U.S.-Saudi marriage has endured over the past
75 years in part because of personal ties between the respective leaders of a
democracy and a monarchy.
An ailing President Franklin
Roosevelt traveled to the Middle East in 1945 to launch the relationship with
Saudi Arabia's founder, King Abdulaziz ibn Saud. Decades later, former
President George W. Bush and the late King Abdullah hosted each other at their
respective ranches.
The strategic relationship between
the U.S. and Saudi Arabia has never been as difficult as it is now, said Norman
Roule, a former senior U.S. intelligence official covering the Middle East.
Prince Mohammed doesn't like his
treatment by the Biden administration, which released an intelligence report
last year about the crown prince's alleged role in Mr. Khashoggi's killing and
dismemberment inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. The Central Intelligence
Agency concluded the prince likely ordered the killing. He denied directing the
attack on one of his high-profile critics but has said he bears responsibility
because it happened on his watch.
Saudi leaders are also upset about
the U.S. approach to Yemen. The White House no longer classifies the Houthis as
a terrorist organization and announced it was reducing support for the
Saudi-led military campaign in Yemen, imposing a freeze on the sale of
precision-guided missiles. Saudi Arabia saw an uptick in cross-border drone and
missile attacks by the Houthis and was alarmed by the Pentagon removing several
antimissile systems from Saudi Arabia in June. The U.S. said the move was for
maintenance.
The Saudis were dismayed by the U.S.
withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the Biden administration's ongoing efforts to
revive the Iran nuclear deal.
Prince Mohammed's demand for
acknowledgment by Mr. Biden of his claim to inherit the throne has grown more
complicated, Saudi officials said. A few months ago, a phone call may have been
enough. Now, Saudi officials are skeptical that even a state visit would
suffice.
The Saudi embassy in Washington
called the idea that Prince Mohammed wanted such acknowledgment
"nonsensical."
The prince wants to put Mr.
Khashoggi's murder behind him -- he faces civil lawsuits over the killing --
and secure legal immunity in the U.S., Saudi officials said. Mr. Biden could
facilitate that by directing the State Department to recognize Prince Mohammad
as a head of state.
Saudi Arabia wants more support for
its intervention in Yemen's civil war and to bolster its defenses against
cross-border attacks from Iran-allied Houthi fighters.
Mr. Biden is unable or unlikely to
meet most of these demands, given the lack of support for Saudi Arabia in
Congress, especially among Democrats. On April 13, 30 Democrats asked the
administration to take a tougher stance on Saudi Arabia, largely over its
response to the Russia’s problem and its refusal to boost oil production.
The U.S.-Saudi relationship has faltered before. The 1973
Arab oil embargo, led by Saudi Arabia in response to U.S. support for Israel
during the Yom Kippur War, sparked the worst U.S. recession in 40 years.
Weeks before the Sept. 11 attacks --
in which the mastermind and 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi citizens --
Riyadh nearly cut ties with the U.S. over what it saw as Washington's failure
to rein in Israel during the Palestinian uprising known as the second intifada.
Former President Barack Obama angered the Saudis with his support for the
"Arab Spring" uprisings and Washington's secret nuclear talks with
Iran.
President Donald Trump, who stood by
Prince Mohammed after the Khashoggi killing, proposed a joint military response
to Iran's attack on Saudi oil sites in 2019. The idea was shelved when Riyadh,
fearing an escalating regional war, declined to take part, U.S. and Saudi
officials said.
What is different this time is a
breakdown at the highest level. When Mr. Biden spoke with King Salman last year,
the White House said he viewed the 86-year-old monarch as his counterpart, not
Prince Mohammed. The president designated Mr. Austin as the interlocutor for
the crown prince, who also holds the title of defense minister.
In July, Prince Khalid bin Salman,
who is Prince Mohammed's younger brother, met Messrs. Austin and Sullivan in
Washington to discuss bolstering Saudi air defenses, U.S. and Saudi officials
said.
Prince Khalid, the most senior Saudi
official to visit the U.S. during the Biden administration, canceled a dinner
for U.S. officials at the ambassador's Washington residence after being told he
wouldn't get the amount of time with Mr. Blinken he had requested, a Saudi
official said.
The next day, the two men talked
briefly one-on-one, said the official and a person familiar with the visit, but
the Saudis cut the trip short and left empty-handed. Ms. Watson said they
"spent the better part of an hour one-on-one."
During meetings last year at the seaside palace, Prince
Mohammed and King Salman huddled with advisers about what punitive actions Mr.
Biden might be planning and how best to pre-empt them, senior Saudi officials
said.
They discussed such options as bowing to White House
pressure by releasing more political prisoners. Prince Mohammed instead chose a
more aggressive path -- threatening to solidify nascent alliances with Russia
and China, the officials said.
In September, the Saudis called off
Mr. Austin's visit, citing a scheduling conflict, and welcomed on the same
night a senior Russian politician sanctioned by the U.S.
Two weeks later, Prince Mohammed,
dressed in shorts, received Mr. Sullivan at the seaside palace and told him the
Saudis would stick with a Russia-blessed oil production plan that didn't
significantly raise output.
Since then, Mr. McGurk and Amos
Hochstein, the State Department's energy envoy, have visited Saudi Arabia
frequently for meetings with Prince Mohammed, Prince Khalid and their older
half brother, energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman.
The White House resumed weapons
sales for defensive purposes to Riyadh, agreeing to a $650 million sale of
air-to-air missiles in November. Last month, Saudi Arabia and the Houthis
agreed to a rare truce in their seven-year-old conflict, following diplomacy by
Mr. Biden's special envoy to Yemen.
As oil surged toward $140 a barrel,
Saudi Arabia took no action. The U.S. delegation got a chilly reception. The Saudis
seemed to be leaning closer to the Kremlin, according to a person briefed by
the Biden administration.
In March, weeks after rebuffing the invitation to speak with
Mr. Biden, Prince Mohammed took a call from Russian President Vladimir Putin
and affirmed Riyadh's commitment to maintaining its oil deal with Moscow." [1]
