Crypto Has a Backing Problem

"Having compressed most of the mistakes made by finance over the centuries into just over a decade, cryptocurrency speculators may finally be discovering the fundamental flaw of trying to build an alternative to government-backed finance: no government backing.

This week, the founder of the largest crypto exchange, Binance, provisionally agreed to rescue top-five rival FTX after it was abandoned by clients in the equivalent of a bank run. On Wednesday, Changpeng Zhao walked away, saying the problems were too big. FTX's future now looks grim, with likely knock-on effects across crypto.

Even if the deal had gone through, it would have left an obvious danger: There's no one big enough to rescue Binance.

Without the deal, a potentially systemic crisis in crypto will be left to play out by itself.

Many, including my colleague Justin Baer, initially compared the deal to the 2008 rescue of Bear Stearns by JPMorgan. But even America's biggest bank had to rely on help from the Federal Reserve, something impossible in the freewheeling government-free world of crypto. Without Fed support, JPMorgan, like Binance, would have walked away.

A better comparison may be the 1907 Wall Street panic, when John Pierpont Morgan, JPMorgan founder, corralled New York's bankers to provide enough money to restore confidence and end bank runs.

Back then there was no Fed, and there was no one big enough to rescue JPMorgan had it run into trouble. Luckily it didn't, partly because Mr. Morgan loomed larger than life over American finance.

But there's an obvious danger of relying on a single person, even Mr. Zhao, known as CZ. After all, until this week it was Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX founder, who was lauded as a modern-day J.P. Morgan for his rescues of smaller crypto crashes.

Back in 1907 the need to rely on Mr. Morgan and his colleagues in what was labeled a "money trust" was the catalyst needed to start the process of setting up a central bank. The Fed was created by law six years later with a mandate to supervise banks and lend against good assets, among other things.

It's impossible to create a central bank of cryptoland, because the whole point of cryptocurrencies is that they are independent of the government. "If you go there, you're on your own," Stefan Ingves, governor of Sweden's Riksbank, the world's oldest central bank, told me on Wednesday, before Binance walked away.

This leaves crypto with no backstop against banklike runs if there's a loss of confidence in its exchanges, which are really a combination of banks and brokerages, many with little or no regulation. The exchanges themselves often make things worse by being secretive about the risks they are taking, while reusing customer assets to boost profits.

CZ told employees on Wednesday that the confidence of crypto users was "severely shaken," and Binance "must significantly increase our transparency, proof of reserve, insurance funds, etc."

But even if crypto exchanges were perfectly transparent, they would still be susceptible to runs as long as they don't have the ready cash to repay in full customers who lose faith and pull their assets.

The problem here isn't crypto in itself. If everyone hewed to the suggestion made by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto in crypto's 2008 founding document, all would be fine.

Nakamoto set out the case for a decentralized, trustless blockchain where everyone holds their own accounts and transactions are verified by anyone who wants to take part. The trouble with the bitcoin Nakamoto created is that transactions are slow, expensive and hard to scale up.

Instead the crypto boom has largely led to customers trading and holding crypto on exchanges, avoiding the need to interact directly with the blockchains.

The reliance on trust that Nakamoto was trying to avoid has been reintroduced -- and one of the biggest lessons of financial history is that where there's a need for trust, there are also dire consequences when trust breaks down. Mr. Bankman-Fried experienced that first hand this week as his attempts to reassure clients were ignored.

The fundamental flaw of centralized finance is that it needs central banks to end chaotic bank runs, and crypto has reinvented centralized finance.

As a result, FTX and the broader crypto ecosystem now face serious uncertainty, and maybe disaster.” [1]

1.  Streetwise: Crypto Has a Backing Problem
Mackintosh, James. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 10 Nov 2022: B.1.

Savarankiškas – su žmogaus prisilietimu: pastangos sukurti savarankiškai vairuojančias transporto priemones pritraukia milijardus dolerių, tačiau vadovai sako, kad nuotolinių operatorių vis tiek reikės

   „Ateities pristatymo vairuotojai gali nepalikti siuntos prie jūsų durų. Vietoj to, jie sėdės už kelių mylių ar net laiko juostų valdymo kambaryje ir prižiūrės pristatymo robotų ar dronų parką.

 

    Įmonės skiria milijardus dolerių į autonomines technologijas, kurios, tikisi, pagerins efektyvumą ir išspręs darbuotojų trūkumą. Tačiau šių pramonės šakų vadovai sako, kad tikroji autonomija yra už daugelio metų ir gali niekada nepasireikšti. Taigi, jie siekia dramatiškai padidinti mašinų, kurias prižiūri kiekvienas žmogus, skaičių. Pavyzdžiui, maisto tiekimo įmonė „Serve Robotics Inc.“ dabar turi vieną prižiūrėtoją valdymo kambaryje kiekvieniems keturiems robotams gatvėje. „Galų gale pamatysite vieno žmogaus ir šimtų, o gal ir daugiau, robotų santykį, jei bus pakankamai laiko“, – sako Ali Kashani, bendrovės įkūrėjas ir vadovas.

 

    Norint tai pasiekti, reikia padėti mašinoms geriau susidoroti su įvairiomis kliūtimis, su kuriomis jie susiduria bandydami veikti žmonių pasaulyje. Pristatymo robotai važiuoja sudėtingais šaligatviais, kur kas valandą kinta kliūtys, pvz., paspirtukai ir šiukšlės. Savarankiškai važiuojantiems automobiliams ir sunkvežimiams padeda kelio ženklinimas ir eismo signalai, kurie nukreipia jiems kelią, tačiau juos gali sugadinti neįprastos situacijos, pavyzdžiui, dėl kelių darbų tenka kirsti dvigubą geltoną liniją. Tada žmonės turi sudalyvauti ir nurodyti mašinai, ką daryti, arba perimti ją nuotolinio valdymo pultu.

 

    Šakiniai krautuvai yra viena iš pažangiausių nuotolinio valdymo pažangos transporto priemonių, nes technologijos vis labiau leidžia vairuotojams juos valdyti iš šimtų mylių. Programinės įrangos kūrėjas „Phantom Auto Inc.“ neseniai surinko 42 mln. leisti jiems pasinaudoti didesniu kvalifikuotų vairuotojų būriu, o ne apsiriboti darbuotojais, esančiais kelionės į darbą atstumu nuo sandėlių.

 

    „Autonomija turi apribojimų, – sako Elliotas Katzas, vienas iš „Phantom Auto“ įkūrėjų, – ypač kai esate labai dinamiškoje aplinkoje, pavyzdžiui, sandėlyje, kur žmonės ir transporto priemonės greitai juda, o ant žemės – daiktai. “

 

    Šiandien „Phantom Auto“ nuotoliniai operatoriai perima šakinio krautuvo valdymą ir atlieka visas jo operacijas. Tačiau netrukus pusiau autonominiai šakiniai krautuvai važiuos patys ir atliks kasdienes užduotis, pavyzdžiui, perkels iš vieno sandėlio galo į kitą, sako J. Katzas. "Iki 2030 m. sudėtingus darbus, pavyzdžiui, pakrauti ar iškrauti priekabą, sudėti padėklus į kintamo aukščio stelažus, atliks žmonės operatoriai. Tačiau ne tokius sudėtingus elementus turės perimti technologijas", - sakė jis.  „Taigi, tai bus žmonės, kurie dirbs kartu su autonomija, ir taip iš tikrųjų bus naudojamos nepilotuojamos transporto priemonės.

 

    Kai kurios tolimojo susisiekimo krovinių gabenimo technologijų bendrovės teigia, kad nuotolinis sunkvežimių valdymas viešaisiais keliais nėra saugus, nes jis priklauso nuo belaidžio ryšio signalų, kurie gali būti pertraukti. Vietoj to, jie deda viltis į autonominę sunkvežimio vairavimo technologiją, kartu su žmonėmis prižiūrėtojais, kurie nuotoliniu būdu atsiunčia nurodymus, kai sunkvežimiui reikia priimti netikėtą sprendimą.

 

    „Tai bus patyrę vairuotojai, žinantys, kaip veikia sunkvežimiai ir galintys prisidėti prie mūsų sistemos funkcionavimo“, – sako Rocky Garff, Waymo, Mountain View, Kalifornijoje įsikūrusios autonominių transporto priemonių įmonės ir sunkvežimių gabenimo operacijų vadovas iš „Google“ pagrindinės įmonės „Alphabet Inc.“ dukterinės įmonės.

 

    „Waymo“ autonominė programinė ir techninė įranga šiandien veikia sunkvežimiuose, kurių vairuotojo sėdynėje yra „autonominis specialistas“. P. Garffas sako, kad tolimųjų reisų sunkvežimiai gali važiuoti be žmonių kabinoje po poros metų – bet greičiausiai tik greitkelyje. Vairuotojas turės sėsti į sunkvežimį, kad nuvežtų jį iš greitkelio į sandėlį.

 

    Savarankiška krovinių gabenimo įmonė „Gatik AI Inc.“, kurios specializacija yra trumpesnių atstumų krovinių gabenimas lengvesniais sunkvežimiais, jau vykdo keliones be vairuotojų. Bendrovė gabena „Walmart“ krovinius tarp paskirstymo centro ir mažmeninės prekybos parduotuvės 7,1 mylios maršrutu Bentonvilyje, Arke.

 

    Nuotoliniai prižiūrėtojai įsikiša, kai įmonės sunkvežimiai susiduria su nenumatytomis kliūtimis, tokiomis, kaip eismo juostos uždarymas, dėl kurio sunkvežimis turi kirsti dvigubas geltonas linijas, sako Gautamas Narangas, „Gatik“ įkūrėjas ir generalinis direktorius. Kai paslauga buvo pradėta teikti 2019 m., kai vienam sunkvežimiui buvo vienas prižiūrėtojas, prižiūrėtojai padėjo kiekvienai transporto priemonei vieną ar du kartus per kelionę, sako jis. Šiandien Gatik vadovai įsijungia tik kartą ar du per savaitę. Kitais metais bendrovė planuoja padidinti savo santykį iki penkių sunkvežimių vienam vadovui. Per penkerius–septynerius metus vienas „Gatik“ vadovas galėtų prižiūrėti 40 sunkvežimių, sako ponas Narangas. Bet vadovas tikrai bus. Jis sako: „Viskam reikia atsarginio varianto“.

 

    Dviračiai, šunys ir smalsūs vaikai yra vienas iš iššūkių, su kuriais susiduria keturračiai „Serve Robotics“ robotai, kurie 2018 m. pradėjo tiekti maistą Los Andžele. Robotai sustoja, jei kažkas trukdo jiems, ir laukia, kol valdymą perims nuotolinis prižiūrėtojas. Prižiūrėtojai gali nukreipti robotus aplink šunis ir dviračius, bet robotas, apsimetantis negyvas, yra geriausias būdas susitvarkyti su vaikais, bendrovės vadovas p. Kashani sako: „Jiems bus nuobodu ir jie nueis“.

 

    Mašinos puikiai juda tiesia linija tuščiu šaligatviu, sako p. Kashani. "Bet tada yra tikrovės keistumas." Nuotoliniai žmonės - prižiūrėtojai perima roboto judesius, jei jam užblokuotas kelias, ir vairuoja robotą, kai reikia kirsti gatvę.

 

    Robotai tobulėja kiekvieną mėnesį su geresniais duomenimis ir algoritmais, kurie padeda jiems išspręsti daugiau problemų, sako jis. Jis tikisi, kad per metus jiems nebereikės nuotolinio vadovavimo, kad jie kirstų sankryžą. Vietoj to, jie sustos ir paprašys nuotolinio prižiūrėtojo leidimo kirsti, tada tęs patys.

 

    Žmonės - operatoriai taip pat prižiūri autonominius bepiločius orlaivius, kuriuos Izraelio bendrovė „Flytrex Aviation Ltd.“ naudoja maisto tiekimui Šiaurės Karolinoje ir Teksase.

 

    „Flytrex“ turi po vieną nuotolinį operatorių kiekvienam dviems danguje esantiems dronams, sako „Flytrex“ vadovas ir vienas iš įkūrėjų Yariv Bash. Operatoriai nuskaito horizontą, ar nėra netoliese esančių orlaivių, ir vienu mygtuko paspaudimu gali įsakyti dronams skristi namo arba į iš anksto patvirtintą avarinio nusileidimo vietą. Jis tikisi, kad nuskaitymo nebereikės, kai bus įdiegta planuojama žemai skraidančių bepiločių orlaivių nacionalinė oro eismo valdymo sistema. „Flytrex“ taip pat tikisi greitai padidinti dronų, kuriuos prižiūri kiekvienas operatorius, skaičių iki Federalinės aviacijos administracijos nustatyto 20 orlaivių vienam asmeniui limito.

 

    Tačiau dirbti be prižiūrėtojų artimiausioje ateityje nėra galimybės, sako jis. „Jūs vis tiek norite žmogaus, žmonių, kurie galėtų įsikišti ir įsakyti dronams, jei atsitiktų kažkas, ko nesitikėjote.“" [1]

1. The Future of Everything: The Transportation Issue --- Autonomous -- With A Human Touch: The push for self-driving vehicles is attracting billions of dollars, but executives say remote operators will still be needed
Berger, Paul. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 10 Nov 2022: R.2.

Autonomous -- With A Human Touch: The push for self-driving vehicles is attracting billions of dollars, but executives say remote operators will still be needed

"The delivery drivers of the future may not leave a package at your door. Instead, they'll be sitting several miles or even time zones away in a control room overseeing a fleet of delivery robots or drones.

Companies are plowing billions of dollars into autonomous technologies they hope will improve efficiency and solve worker shortages. But executives in these industries say true autonomy is many years away -- and may never come. So they are striving to dramatically ramp up the number of machines each human oversees. Food-deliverer Serve Robotics Inc., for instance, now has one supervisor in a control room for every four robots on the street. "Eventually, you are going to see a ratio of one person for hundreds, maybe more, robots, given enough time," says Ali Kashani, the company's co-founder and chief executive.

Achieving this means helping machines better deal with an array of hurdles they face trying to operate in a human world. Delivery robots navigate complex sidewalks where obstructions such as rideshare scooters and trash shift from hour to hour. Self-driving cars and trucks are helped by road markings and traffic signals that guide their way -- but they can be bamboozled by unusual situations like having to cross a double yellow line because of road work. That's when humans have to step in and tell the machine what to do, or take it over with remote control.

Forklifts are among the vehicles at the cutting edge of remote-control advances, as technology increasingly allows drivers to operate them from hundreds of miles away. Software developer Phantom Auto Inc. recently raised $42 million in a funding round led by trucking company ArcBest Corp. and logistics provider NFI Industries Inc. The two companies, which plan to deploy thousands of remote-controlled forklifts at their warehouses, hope the technology will allow them to draw on a wider pool of skilled drivers instead of being limited to workers within commuting distance of warehouses.

"Autonomy has limitations," says Elliot Katz, a co-founder of Phantom Auto, "especially when you're in a highly dynamic environment like a warehouse where you have humans and vehicles moving around at a fast pace and stuff on the ground."

Today, Phantom Auto's remote operators take control of a forklift truck for all of its operations. But soon semi-autonomous forklift trucks will run on their own for mundane tasks like moving from one end of a warehouse to another, Mr. Katz says. "By 2030 you're going to have human operators doing the complex work, such as loading or unloading a trailer, placing pallets in variable racking heights. But for the less-complex elements you're going to have technology taking over," he says. "So it's going to be humans working hand-in-hand with autonomy, and that is how unmanned vehicles are really going to actually deploy."

Some long-distance trucking technology companies say remote control of trucks on public roads isn't safe because it relies on wireless signals that could be interrupted. Instead, they are pinning their hopes on autonomous technology to drive the truck, paired with human supervisors who step in remotely to provide direction when the truck needs to make an unexpected decision.

"It's going to be experienced drivers who know how trucks work and are able to play a part in helping our system function," says Rocky Garff, head of trucking operations for Waymo, the Mountain View, Calif.-based autonomous-vehicle company and subsidiary of Google parent Alphabet Inc.

Waymo's autonomous software and hardware run today in trucks that have an "autonomous specialist" in the driver's seat. Mr. Garff says long-distance trucks could be running without people in the cab in a couple of years -- but most likely only on the highway. A human driver will need to get into the truck to take it from the highway to a warehouse.

Gatik AI Inc., an autonomous trucking company that specializes in shorter-distance freight trips using lighter box trucks, is already operating end-to-end trips without drivers. The company carries Walmart loads between a distribution center and a retail store along a 7.1-mile route in Bentonville, Ark.

Remote supervisors step in when the company's trucks encounter unanticipated obstacles, such as a lane closure that requires the truck to cross double yellow lines, says Gautam Narang, Gatik's co-founder and chief executive. When the service launched in 2019 with one supervisor per truck, the supervisors assisted each vehicle once or twice per trip, he says. Today, Gatik's supervisors step in just once or twice per week. The company plans to increase its ratio to five trucks per supervisor next year. In five-to-seven years, a single Gatik supervisor could oversee 40 trucks, Mr. Narang says. But there will always be a human in the loop, he says: "There needs to be a backup for everything."

Bicycles, dogs and curious children are among the challenges for the four-wheeled robots of Serve Robotics, which began delivering meals in Los Angeles in 2018. The robots stop if something is blocking their way and wait for a remote supervisor to take over. Supervisors can direct robots around dogs and bicycles, but having the robot play dead is the best way to handle children, the company's chief executive Mr. Kashani says: "They will get bored and walk away."

The machines are fine moving in a straight line on an empty sidewalk, Mr. Kashani says. "But then there's the oddness of reality." Remote human supervisors take over the robot's movements if its way is blocked and drive the robot when it needs to cross a street.

The robots are evolving every month with better data and algorithms that help them solve more problems, he says. Within a year, he expects they will no longer need remote guidance to cross an intersection. Instead, they will stop and ask a remote supervisor for permission to cross, then proceed on their own.

Human operators also oversee the autonomous drones Israeli company Flytrex Aviation Ltd. uses to deliver meals in North Carolina and Texas.

Flytrex has one remote operator for every two drones in the sky, says Flytrex's chief executive and co-founder Yariv Bash. The operators scan the horizon for nearby aircraft and can, at the press of a button, order the drones home or to a pre-approved emergency landing spot. He expects the scanning will no longer be needed once a planned national air-traffic-control system for low-flying drones is in place. Flytrex also expects to soon increase the number of drones each operator oversees to the Federal Aviation Administration's limit of 20 aircraft per person.

But operating without supervisors isn't in the cards for the foreseeable future, he says. "You still want a human, the people who can intervene and call the drones in case there's something you haven't anticipated."" [1]

1. The Future of Everything: The Transportation Issue --- Autonomous -- With A Human Touch: The push for self-driving vehicles is attracting billions of dollars, but executives say remote operators will still be needed
Berger, Paul. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 10 Nov 2022: R.2.