"Europe is failing in West Africa as it was in Afghanistan. One lesson from this is that we cannot make the world the way we live ourselves. It is time for more realpolitik.
What the West, especially Europe, is experiencing in West and Central Africa is a strategic defeat. There is no other way to describe it when one's own troops are forced to withdraw and allied governments are overthrown from office in one country after another.
The developments in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Guinea and most recently Gabon may seem less dramatic to the general public due to the lack of appropriate images than the Western withdrawal from Afghanistan two years ago, which in the end was also more of a kick out. But in terms of foreign and security policy, they have a significance that goes beyond the failure in the Hindu Kush: This is about a region on Europe's doorstep on a continent where Russia and China are successfully trying to gain influence.
The fact that the German Bundeswehr was sent to Mali was not least an act of friendship for France. Nevertheless, the consequences of the upheavals do not only affect French politics. The operation followed the same logic as that in Afghanistan: the West wanted to get involved militarily and in development policy in order to counter jihadism and irregular migration at their places of origin.
The terror problem is getting bigger
The terrorist problem has now become even greater with the French withdrawal from Mali, and it is obvious that Europe continues to have an interest in who controls important migration routes towards the Mediterranean. Local militias and military governments working with Russian mercenaries shouldn't be.
There are many reasons why European engagement has failed so miserably. Local factors are often crucial, including power struggles between corrupt elites. However, it is noticeable that in many countries there is disillusionment with cooperation with the West, as was the case in Afghanistan. The fact that in 2023, a good half a century after decolonization, coup leaders are being heard with anti-French, ultimately anti-Western, slogans should give every foreign and development politician in Berlin pause for thought.
The “values-based foreign policy”, which is pursued with great conviction in Germany in particular, is apparently perceived by quite a few recipients as excessive. Sometimes you wonder why German politicians find it so difficult to understand this. They even prohibit EU partners from interfering in many issues, such as when it comes to the right energy mix.
Review development aid
But others want to convert them to a social model that, even in Europe, has only worked properly for a few generations. However, a constitutional state, free media, minority or women's rights cannot be enforced with the Bundeswehr, nor even economic development. This was already known after Afghanistan, but we still tried it again in West Africa.
If you really want, you can now process such experiences in committees of inquiry, as is happening in the case of Afghanistan. But the point here is not whether one or the other set screw needs to be adjusted differently in future operations.
In principle, the same problem arises as in Germany's Russia policy: We would like the world to be the way we live. Because Germany is a great country, its politicians did not believe an action by Putin was possible. Because it is an enlightened, postmodern society, they want Africa to be like that too (or Asia or Latin America).
If that doesn't work, EU sanctions will be imposed, which has already happened in the case of Mali and is being prepared for Niger. This makes people in Europe feel morally entitled, but leaves the field to Moscow and Beijing. The Austrian Foreign Minister is right when he says that this approach will ultimately have to cancel three quarters of the world's population.
This has little to do with realpolitik, which seeks to balance interests. Europe shouldn't make the mistake of letting West Africa fall like it did Afghanistan, even if that sometimes means working with politically questionable people (the overthrown "democrats" weren't all really better).
And it is time to review the direction of development aid. The fact that it often has little effect also becomes problematic for its acceptance among German voters; the AfD has already discovered the topic. Above all, it is important to say goodbye to the illusion that you can curb unwanted migration and terrorism at its root. The Europeans have to do that at home." [1]
Afghanistan, West and Central Africa, Russia and China – we, the West, tried to cancel all of them. We failed. We lost. Could we start thinking what to do at home?
1. Die nächste Niederlage des Westens. Von Nikolas Busse,
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online)Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Sep 11, 2023.
