Within 10 Years AI Will Be Able to "Do 80% of 80% of All Jobs That We Know of Today.

"LAGUNA BEACH, Calif. -- Artificial intelligence will likely lead to seismic changes to the workforce, eliminating many professions and requiring a societal rethink of how people spend their time, prominent tech leaders said Tuesday.

Speaking at The Wall Street Journal's Tech Live conference on Tuesday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said that the changes could hit some people in the economy more seriously than others, even if society as a whole improves. This will likely be a hard sell for the most affected people, he said.

"We are really going to have to do something about this transition," said Altman, who added that society will have to confront the speed at which the change happens. "People need to have agency, the ability to influence. We need to jointly be architects of the future."

Artificial intelligence is expected to transform the global economy by driving gains in both productivity and growth. But economists and tech entrepreneurs are divided on how quickly this shift could -- and should -- happen.

Earlier Tuesday, Vinod Khosla, a prominent venture capitalist whose firm was one of OpenAI's earliest backers, laid out a stark timeline for AI's transformation of work. 

 Within 10 years AI will be able to "do 80% of 80% of all jobs that we know of today," said Khosla, a tech investor and entrepreneur for more than 40 years.

He pointed to many types of physicians and accountants as examples of professions that AI could largely supplant because these systems can more easily access a broad array of knowledge. 

Khosla likened the extent of the workforce changes to the disappearance of agricultural jobs in the U.S. in the 20th century -- a transition that took place over generations, not years.

The increased prosperity that AI will bring to societies that adopt it, however, will allow people who don't want work to avoid it if they choose to. "I believe the need to work in society will disappear in 25 years for those countries that adapt these technologies," he said. "I do think there's room for universal basic income assuring a minimum standard and people will be able to work on the things they want to work on."

Altman said that ensuring a basic income won't be enough. People will need outlets for creative expression and a chance to "add something back to the trajectory of the species," he said.

OpenAI ignited the current artificial intelligence fervor in Silicon Valley with its chatbot ChatGPT last November. The surprise success of the product has launched significant debate around the best way for governments and people to prepare for the potentially sweeping changes wrought by AI.

One point of concern is the ability to distinguish between real and AI-generated content. AI-generated images are already used to spread misinformation, infringe on intellectual property or sexualize photos of people. AI tools for detecting those types of images are still under development.

Altman said OpenAI explicitly decided to call its chatbot ChatGPT and not a person's name so people wouldn't confuse the tool with a person.

Chris Cox, Meta Platforms' chief product officer, said at the Tech Live conference that Meta decided to give chatbots personas in an effort to make them more engaging. Users want to interact with a tool that has personality, not something that feels like a robot, he said.

The company in September announced a bevy of AI chatbots based on celebrities including Naomi Osaka, Snoop Dogg and Tom Brady. In the chatbot, Meta indicates at the start of a conversation that they are communicating with AI rather than the actual celebrity.

"Having products that experiment with what is possible is great, but having anything that doesn't make it clear to people what is going on is a problem," Cox said.

Asked about the challenges users can have determining whether content is real or AI-made, OpenAI Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati said the company is developing technology to help detect the provenance of images. That tool is "almost 99% reliable," she said, but the company is still testing it and wants to design it in such a way that OpenAI's users don't feel monitored." [1]

Without having to work hard to make at least a decent living, people will be more likely to engage in activities with a higher risk of failure. This will significantly speed up and diversify the development of mankind.

1. AI Is Poised to Transform Employment --- Coming workforce changes will play out unevenly, says OpenAI's Altman. Seetharaman, Deepa; Wells, Georgia.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 19 Oct 2023: B.6.

„Amazon“ pradeda kapitalinį sandėlio pertvarkymą su robotais, kad paspartintų pristatymą

  „Amazon į savo sandėlio operacijas diegia naujas dirbtinio intelekto ir robotikos galimybes, kurios sumažins pristatymo laiką ir padės greičiau identifikuoti prekes.

 

     Atnaujinimas pakeis būdą, kaip „Amazon“ perkelia produktus per jos vykdymo centrus su rūšiavimo mašinomis ir robotinėmis rankomis. Numatyta pakeisti, kiek įmonės darbuotojų dirba jų darbą.

 

     „Amazon“ teigia, kad jos naujoji robotų sistema, pavadinta „Sequoia“, yra skirta tiek greičiui, tiek saugumui. Bendrovė teigia, kad žmonės turi dirbti kartu su naujomis mašinomis taip, kad sumažėtų traumų.

 

     Neaišku, kaip sistema paveiks „Amazon“ darbuotojų skaičių, ir bendrovė atsisakė pateikti išsamios informacijos apie jos lūkesčius, išskyrus tai, kad ji nemato automatikos ir robotikos, kaip darbo vietų pašalinimo priemonių.

 

     „Sequoia“ leidžia įmonei greičiau pateikti parduodamas prekes jos svetainėje ir lengviau numatyti pristatymo sąmatas, sakė bendrovės robotų saugojimo technologijų direktorius Davidas Guerinas. Programa sutrumpina užsakymo įvykdymo laiką iki 25%, pranešė bendrovė, o prekes gali atpažinti ir saugoti iki 75% greičiau. „Amazon“ šią savaitę pristatė sistemą viename iš jos sandėlių Hiustone.

 

     „Kuo greičiau galėsime apdoroti prekes, tuo didesnė tikimybė, kad galėsime pristatyti, kai sakėme, kad galime“, – sakė Guerinas.

 

     Jis sakė, kad „Amazon“ tikisi, kad per ateinančius trejus ar penkerius metus naujoji sistema sudarys didelę bendrovės veiklos dalį.

 

     Susidūrusi su nauja konkurencija JAV, „Amazon“ stengėsi greičiau pristatyti jos produktus. Bendrovė pertvarkė savo veiklą į regioninį modelį, skirtą daiktams laikyti arčiau klientų.

 

     Naujoje struktūroje transporto priemonės gabena daiktus dėžėse į naują rūšiavimo mašiną, aprūpintą mažomis robotizuotomis rankomis ir kompiuterine vizija. 

 

Iš rūšiavimo mašinos dėžės nukreipiamos darbuotojui, kuris ruošia prekes pristatymui. Likusias prekes sukaupia pernai pristatyta „Amazon“ robotinė ranka „Sparrow“.

 

     Ankstesnėje sistemoje transporto priemonės judėjo aplink „Amazon“ prekes, tačiau naujoji rūšiavimo mašina, konteineriai ir „Sparrow“ nebuvo įtraukti. Anksčiau darbuotojai turėdavo lipti aukštai ant lentynos, norėdami paimti sunkų daiktą, tačiau dabar pagal naują sistemą konteineriai pristatomi juosmens lygyje, siekiant sumažinti sužeidimų skaičių.

 

     „Amazon“ yra tarp kelių kompanijų, kurios siekia užvaldyti robotikos „šventąjį gralį“ arba mašinas, tokias vikrias, greitas ir prisitaikančias, kaip žmogaus ranka. Tokie konkurentai, kaip „Walmart“ keičia dėžių perkėlimo darbus į robotų ginklų valdymo vaidmenis.

 

     „Amazon“ ir kiti suprato, kad norint integruoti daugiau robotikos, reikia pakeisti sandėlių darbo eigą, sakė rinkos tyrimų įmonės „Interact Analysis“ tyrimų vadovas Ruebenas Scrivenas.

 

     Pavyzdžiui, naujoji „Amazon“ sistema yra prasminga dėl jos robotų rankų, nes tokie robotai lengviau atpažįsta dėžėse esančius objektus, nei lentynose, kurios buvo ankstesnių „Amazon“ sistemų dalis.

 

     „Svarbiausias dalykas, kurį bando padaryti„ Amazon “, yra integruotis“, – sakė Scrivenas. „Jie turi skirtingus kūrinius, o dabar kalbama apie tai, kaip juos sujungti į darnią sistemą."

 

     Darbo tyrėjai ir aktyvistai teigė, kad „Amazon“ siekis didesnio greičio gali kelti pavojų jos darbuotojams, o kai kurie perspėjo, kad robotikos įdiegimas taip pat gali padidinti darbuotojų traumų skaičių. Įmonė ilgą laiką kovojo su didele sandėlio darbuotojų kaita ir pasikartojančiais streso sužalojimais.

 

     Su naujomis sistemomis, tokiomis, kaip „Sequoia“, „Amazon“ teigia, kad bando pagerinti saugumą. Tye'as Brady, vyriausiasis „Amazon Robotics“ technologas, teigė, kad bendrovės robotai yra skirti pašalinti kasdienes užduotis ir dirbti kartu su žmogiškuoju personalu, nes abiems reikia vienam kito, kad veiktų efektyviai. Per pastarąjį dešimtmetį „Amazon“ į savo sandėlius pristatė įvairią robotiką, tačiau išlaikė daug žmonių samdymo.

 

     „Amazon“ pristatymo strategija buvo sutelkta į patalpų atidarymą, skirtą populiarių daiktų pristatymui klientams greičiau, nei per dieną. Bendrovė tą pačią dieną atidarė dešimtis svetainių, planuodama daugiau plėstis. Guerinas, robotikos saugyklos direktorius, sakė, kad „Amazon“ planuose „Sequoia“ yra tos pačios dienos svetainės.

 

     „Amazon“ ne tik bandė pagreitinti, bet ir iš naujo pradėjo siuntimo verslą, kuris konkuruoja su „United Parcel Service“ ir „FedEx“, tvarkydamas išorinius pristatymus.

 

     „Amazon“ teigė, kad pradės savo veikloje išbandyti dvikojį robotą, pavadintą „Digit“. „Digit“, kurį sukūrė „Agility Robotics“, gali perkelti, sugriebti ir tvarkyti daiktus, o iš pradžių įmonė naudos jį tuščioms dėžėms perkelti.

 

     Mažmenininkas turi vieną didžiausių darbo jėgos šalyje, jos sandėliuose dirba šimtai tūkstančių darbuotojų. Ji vis dažniau į ją įtraukė robotiką,

 

2012 m. bendrovė įsigijo „Kiva Systems“ už 775 mln. dolerių, į savo patalpas įtraukdama mobiliuosius robotus. 2022 m. jis pristatė 1 milijardo dolerių fondą, skirtą naujovėms logistikos ir tiekimo grandinėje, o „Agility Robotics“ buvo vieni pirmųjų fondo gavėjų. Ir tais pačiais metais jis pristatė Sparrow, kuris gali paimti įvairius objektus taip pat lengvai, kaip ir žmonės.“ [1]

 

 

1. Amazon Unveils Warehouse Overhaul With Robotics to Speed Up Deliveries. Herrera, Sebastian.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 19 Oct 2023: B.4.

 

 

Amazon Unveils Warehouse Overhaul With Robotics to Speed Up Deliveries.

"Amazon is introducing new artificial intelligence and robotics capabilities into its warehouse operations that will reduce delivery times and help identify inventory more quickly.

The revamp will change the way Amazon moves products through its fulfillment centers with AI-equipped sortation machines and robotic arms. It is set to alter how many of the company's army of workers do their jobs.

Amazon says its new robotics system, named Sequoia, is designed for both speed and safety. Humans are meant to work alongside new machines in a way that should reduce injuries, the company says.

It is unclear how the system will affect Amazon's head count, and the company declined to provide details about its expectations except to note that it doesn't see automation and robotics as vehicles for eliminating jobs.

Sequoia enables the company to put up items for sale on its website faster and be able to more easily predict delivery estimates, said David Guerin, the company's director of robotic storage technology. The program reduces the time it takes to fulfill an order by up to 25%, the company said, and it can identify and store inventory up to 75% faster. Amazon launched the system this week at one of its warehouses in Houston.

"The faster we can process inventory, the greater the probability that we're going to be able to deliver when we said we could," Guerin said.

He said Amazon expects the new system to make up a significant portion of the company's operations in the next three to five years.

Faced with fresh competition in the U.S., Amazon has worked to become faster at delivering its products. The company transformed its operations to a regionally focused model meant to store items closer to customers.

In the new structure, vehicles transport products inside tote containers to a new sortation machine equipped with small robotic arms and computer vision. From the sortation machine, the bins are routed to an employee who picks items for delivery. Remaining inventory is consolidated by Sparrow, a robotic arm Amazon unveiled last year.

In the previous system, vehicles moved around Amazon products, but the new sortation machine, tote containers and Sparrow weren't involved. Previously, employees might have to reach high up on a shelf to pick a heavy item, but now the new system delivers containers around the waist level, with a goal to reduce injuries.

Amazon is among several companies that have chased the "holy grail" of robotics, or machines as dexterous, quick and adaptable as a human arm and hand. Rivals such as Walmart are changing jobs of moving boxes into roles managing robotic arms.

What Amazon and others have realized is that in order to integrate more robotics, the workflow of warehouses has to be transformed, said Rueben Scriven, research manager at market research firm Interact Analysis. 

Amazon's new system, for example, makes sense for its robotic arms because such robots have an easier time identifying objects inside of bins than shelves, which have been a part of previous Amazon systems.

"The key thing Amazon is trying to do is integrate," Scriven said. "They have the different pieces, and now it's about, 'How do we bring them together in a harmonious system?'"

Labor researchers and activists have said Amazon's desire for faster speeds can put its workers at risk, and some have warned that the introduction of robotics could also heighten employee injuries. The company has long struggled with high turnover among its warehouse employees and repetitive stress injuries.

With new systems such as Sequoia, Amazon says it is trying to improve safety. Tye Brady, chief technologist at Amazon Robotics, said the company's robotics are meant to eliminate mundane tasks and work alongside its human staff, with both needing each other to work efficiently. Amazon has introduced various robotics into its warehouses over the past decade but maintained large hiring sprees for human workers.

Amazon's delivery strategy has centered on opening facilities focused on delivering popular products to customers in less than a day. The company launched dozens of the same-day sites, with plans for more expansion. Guerin, the robotics storage director, said Amazon's plans for Sequoia include the same-day sites.

Aside from trying to get faster, Amazon restarted a shipping business that competes with United Parcel Service and FedEx by handling external deliveries.

Amazon said it would start to test a bipedal robot named Digit in its operations. Digit, which is designed by Agility Robotics, can move, grasp and handle items, and will initially be used by the company to move empty tote containers.

The retailer has one of the nation's largest workforces, employing hundreds of thousands of employees in its warehouses. It has increasingly introduced robotics into its operations.

The company bought Kiva Systems in 2012 for $775 million, bringing in mobile robots into its facilities. In 2022, it unveiled a $1 billion fund for innovation in logistics and supply chain, with Agility Robotics being among the fund's first recipients. And the same year, it unveiled Sparrow, which can pick up a variety of objects as easily as humans can." [1]

1. Amazon Unveils Warehouse Overhaul With Robotics to Speed Up Deliveries. Herrera, Sebastian.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 19 Oct 2023: B.4.

 

How to deal with garden pests: no chemicals will be needed

"Doctor of Agronomy, beekeeper Algirdas Amšiejus shared tips on how to get rid of garden and vegetable pests in natural ways. He explained how pest traps can be useful and how easy it is to make them.

This is the best way to destroy fruit tree pests, says A. Amšiejus, talking about insect traps in the garden.

"For example, the apple fruit borer - it gnaws the apple, when it is ripe, then on the branch goes down to the ground to overwinter. Turns into a pupa, and in the spring a butterfly. Traps can be installed for such: you take 20 cm of corrugated paper, the kind from which cardboard boxes are made, wrap the trunk, thicker branches, wrap it with wire and leave it. This should be done at the end of June.

During June, July, August, all those pests that gnaw leaves, fruits, go to the ground to winter, and you make a trap for them closer to the ground and they land there, and you collect them all", he says.

According to him, this is a great and natural way that a person who does not want to use chemicals can do.

"If you do this one year and the next, you agree with the neighbors that they should also make such traps, this is a benefit. If after that three out of a hundred plums are wormy, then what is the problem, and when only three out of a hundred are good, then it is already quite bad. Then chemicals are used, and then we eat chemicals and say that we feel bad," says the interviewee, who has also published a book about it.

Completely different traps are made for soil pests - Colorado beetles, crickets, and grub larvae.

"They need to be lured into the ground. When you harvest the garden, you have already dug up the potatoes, carrots, and pumpkins, you dig a hole half a meter deep, half a meter long and wide, add leaves, grass, lawn, mix it with some other weeds, manure in the village to keep them warm, then bury it in the ground 5 cm layer, dig in a stake - mark that place. Then it starts to get cold, like 8 degrees C of cold already, but the ground doesn't freeze because it heats up from below.

You come, you dig everything, and when you dig, you find Colorado beetles,  larvae - everything. Then you dig everything up and they freeze. From this, the soil is also enriched with organic substances," added A. Amšiejus."

 

 

Amšiejus pasakė, kaip susidoroti su sodo ir daržo kenkėjais: nereikės jokios chemijos

 

"Agronomijos mokslų daktaras, bitininkas Algirdas Amšiejus pasidalijo patarimais, kaip atsikratyti sodo ir daržo kenkėjais natūraliais būdais. Jis paaiškino, kuo gali būti naudingos kenkėjų gaudyklės ir kaip lengvai tokias pasidaryti.

 

Tai yra geriausias būdas naikinti vaismedžių kenkėjams, sako A. Amšiejus, pasakodamas apie vabzdžių gaudykles sode.

 

„Pavyzdžiui, obuolinis vaisėdis – graužia obuolį, kai subręsta, šaka leidžiasi žemyn į žemę žiemoti. Virsta lėliuke, o pavasarį drugeliu. Tokiems galima įrengti gaudykles: paimi 20 cm gofruoto popieriaus, tokio iš kurio daromos kartoninės dėžės, apvynioji kamieną, storesnes šakas, su viela apspaudi ir palieki. Tai reikia daryti birželio pabaigoje.

 

Per birželį, liepą, rugpjūtį visi tie kenkėjai, kurie graužia lapus, vaisius, eina į žemę žiemot, o tu jiems padarai gaudyklę arčiau žemės ir jie ten sulenda, o tu juos visus surankioji“, – pasakoja jis.

 

Anot jo, tai puikus ir natūralus būdas, ką gali padaryti pats žmogus, nenorintis naudoti chemikalų.

„Jeigu taip padarai vienais metais, kitais, su kaimynais susitari, kad ir jie tokias gaudykles padarytų, tai yra naudos. Jei po to iš šimto slyvų trys ir sukirmija, tai kas čia tokio, o kai iš šimto tik trys geros, va tada jau visai blogai. Tada naudojami chemikalai, o chemikalus po to valgom ir sakom, kad blogai jaučiamės“, – tikina pašnekovas, kuris apie tai yra išleidęs ir knygą.

 

Žemės dirvos kenkėjams – kolorado vabalams, spragšių, grambuolių lervoms – daromos jau visai kitokios gaudyklės.

 

„Juos reikia įviliot į žemę. Kai daržą nuimi, jau dabar nukastos bulvės, morkos, moliūgai surinkti, iškasi pusės metro gylio duobę, pusės metro ilgio ir pločio, pridedi lapų, žolės, vejos, sumaišai dar su kokiom piktžolėm, mėšlu kaime, kad jos šiltų, tada užkasi žeme 5 cm sluoksniu, įsikasi kokį kuolą – paženklini tą vietą. Tada pradeda šalt, kokie 8 laipsniai šalčio jau, bet žemė neįšąla, nes iš apačios kaista.

 

Ateini, viską iškasi, o kai iškasi pamatai kolorado vabalų, spragšių, grambuolių lervų – visko. Tada viską iškasi ir jie sušąla. Nuo to dar žemė ir praturtinama organinėmis medžiagomis“, – pridūrė A. Amšiejus.”

Bijo blogiausio: už mažos vertės būstą – tūkstančiai eurų mokesčių?

 Kertate šaką, ant kurios patys sėdite. Žmonės parduos, iš Amerikos pinigų praturtėjusiems, ukrainiečiams ir emigruos, ieškodami, kur nėra tokių mokesčių. Ukrainiečiai organizuos jiems įprastą Maidaną Vilniuje ir jūsų savivaliavimas bei bandymai pralobti baigsis.