The Secret of America's Strong Economic Recovery

"When Covid-19 struck, the initial economic impact was devastating. Large parts of major economies shut down, both because of official lockdowns and because people feared that in-person interaction would expose them to infection. In the United States, 20 million jobs suddenly disappeared.

At the time, there was widespread concern that the pandemic would leave lasting economic scars. After all, the 2008 financial crisis was followed by a weak recovery that left real gross domestic product in many countries far below the pre-crisis trend even a decade later. Indeed, as we approach Covid's four-year mark, many of the world's economies remain well short of full recovery.

But not the United States. Not only have we had the strongest recovery in the advanced world, but the International Monetary Fund's latest World Economic Outlook also points out that American growth since 2019 has actually exceeded pre-Covid projections.

There's a lot of terrible noneconomic news out there right now. But let's take a moment to celebrate this good economic news -- and try to figure out what went right with the U.S. economy.

It's true that one recent poll found that a majority of Americans and 60 percent of Republicans say that unemployment is near a 50-year high. But it's actually near its lowest level since the 1960s.

Meanwhile, retail sales are strong, and the rate at which workers are voluntarily quitting their jobs is high, which normally indicates a good labor market in which people are confident of finding new jobs.

What about inflation? When you use comparable measures, America also has the lowest inflation rate among major economies.

Can we trust government data here? I've been having some fun with a project called Truflation, which supposedly uses the blockchain and was backed in part by crypto types and which I suspect was intended to show that official inflation was greatly understated. What its numbers actually show is a steep decline in inflation over the past year.

U.S. economic success, then, is real, and remarkable. How did we pull it off?

Part of the answer, to be fair, is luck. American sanctions on Russia caused a major energy shock in Europe, which had come to rely on imports of Russian natural gas. America, which exports gas, was much less affected.

A second, probably more important factor was that the United States pursued aggressively expansionary fiscal policy. In early 2021 the Biden administration enacted a very large spending bill. Many economists were extremely critical, warning that this spending would fuel inflation, which it probably did for a while. But inflation has subsided, while "Big Fiscal" helped the economy get to full employment -- arguably the first time we've had truly full employment in decades.

A strong job market may in turn have had major long-term benefits, by drawing previously marginalized Americans into the work force. Remember the so-called great resignation? In reality, the percentage of U.S. adults in their prime working years participating in the labor force is now at its highest level in 20 years. One number I find especially striking is labor force participation by Americans with a disability, which has soared.

One last thing: When Covid struck, all advanced countries took strong measures to limit economic hardship, but they took different approaches. European governments generally paid employers to keep workers on their payrolls, even if they were temporarily idle. America, for the most part, let layoffs happen but protected workers with expanded unemployment benefits.

There was a case for each approach. Europe's approach helped keep workers connected to their old jobs; the U.S. approach created more flexibility, making it easier for workers to move to different jobs if the post-Covid economy turned out to look quite different from the economy before the pandemic.

My conjecture -- and that's all it is -- is that the U.S. approach turned out to be the right one. Covid appears to have had lasting effects on what we buy and how we work -- most obviously, working from home appears to be here to stay -- while high labor force participation belies fears that laid-off workers would never come back. So America's Covid response, even though it temporarily led to high measured unemployment, may have set the stage for a strong recovery.

No doubt there were other factors behind America's remarkable economic success story. But one thing is clear: We have been remarkably successful, even if nobody will believe it." [1]

1. The Secret of America's Strong Economic Recovery: [Op-Ed]. Krugman, Paul.  New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 24 Oct 2023: A.18.

 

Ar dirbtinis intelektas atneš utopiją ar distopiją? Rizikos kapitalistas renkasi utopiją: Vinodas Khosla sako, kad dirbtinis intelektas sukels didelę gausą – daugiau, nei pakankamai, kad būtų galima pasidalinti

  „Dirbtinio intelekto (AI) ateitis daugeliu atžvilgių yra tuščias lapas – vieta, kur daugelis žmonių kelia įvairiausių baimių, bet kur daugelis investuotojų mato įvairų potencialą.

 

     Siekdamas ištirti utopijos ir distopijos scenarijus, „The Wall Street Journal“ žurnalistas Jasonas Deanas „Journal's Tech Live“ konferencijoje kalbėjosi su Vinodu Khosla, rizikos kapitalo įmonės „Khosla Ventures“ įkūrėju. Čia pateikiamos redaguotos pokalbio ištraukos.

 

     WSJ: Rizikos kapitalo startuolių pasaulis po ilgos plėtros vis dar yra gana nuosmukyje. Jau daugiau, nei 40 metų esate technologijų investuotojas ir verslininkas. Kaip matote šią dabartinę padėtį?

 

     VINOD KHOSLA: Matėme daug investicijų pertekliaus. Tačiau drausmingiems investuotojams sekėsi gerai. Tą patį matome ir AI ažiotažo cikle. Vis tiek reikia būti drausmingam. 

 

Man patinka sakyti, kad dauguma investicijų į AI šiandien, rizikos investicijos, praras pinigus. Tačiau daugiau pinigų bus uždirbta, nei prarasta, jei anksti būsite drausmingi ir apgalvosite, kur investuoti.

 

     WSJ: Jūs buvote pirmasis išorinis investuotojas į OpenAI; Manau, kad tada 50 milijonų dolerių, kai vertinimas buvo maždaug 1 milijardas dolerių. Šių metų pradžioje tai buvo apie 30 mlrd. Neseniai pranešėme, kad jie planuoja parduoti akcijas, kurių vertė siekia beveik 90 mlrd. Ar jis jau vertas 90 milijardų dolerių? Kur lubos?

 

     KHOSLA: Kai žiūriu į AI investicijų kraštovaizdį, vertingiausias dalykas nėra programinė įranga. Tai žmonės, reikalaujantys didelių išlaidų [tai AI galėtų sumažinti arba panaikinti]. Jei paimtumėte milijoną gydytojų ir kiekvienas uždirbtų 300 000 dolerių, tai būtų 300 milijardų dolerių išlaidos vien tik JAV; turbūt, 10 kartų daugiau visame pasaulyje. Tai trilijonai dolerių. Jei pažvelgtumėte į buhalterius, galėtumėte suskaičiuoti tuos pačius skaičius, išleistus trilijonus dolerių. 

 

Tikiu, kad dirbtinis intelektas per 10 metų galės atlikti 80 % iš 80 % darbų, apie kuriuos šiandien žinome.

 

     WSJ: Ar rizikos kapitalistai bus pakeisti?

 

     KHOSLA: Negaliu pasakyti, kad taip nebus. Labai sunku nuspėti. Tačiau visur, kur pasikliaujame žmonių patirtimi, dirbtinis intelektas turės geresnę patirtį ir turės daugiau informacijos. Kreipkitės į onkologą, gydantį pacientą nuo krūties vėžio. Labai mažai tikėtina, kad jie prisimins paskutinius 5000 straipsnių apie tam tikrą krūties vėžį. Tačiau AI tai žinos ir AI paskirs tinkamą gydymą pacientui. Tai bus daug geresnis onkologas, nei onkologas žmogus.

 

     WSJ: Kai kalbate apie 80% gydytojų, 80% buhalterių ir tt, kurie bus pakeisti arba, galbūt, bus pakeisti vos po 10 metų, ar tai yra geras dalykas?

 

     KHOSLA: Mes išgyvenome tą perėjimą anksčiau. 1900-ųjų pradžioje dauguma darbo vietų JAV buvo žemės ūkyje. Iki 1970 m. buvo tik 4 proc.

 

     Didžiausia problema yra ta, kad dirbtinis intelektas sukels didelę gausą, didelį BVP augimą, viską, ką mėgsta ekonomistai, ir padidins pajamų skirtumus. 

 

Geros naujienos yra tai, kad jei [AI leidžia mums] pakeisti BVP augimą, tarkime, ateinančius 50 metų, nuo 2% iki 4%, bus visko daugiau, nei pakankamai daug, kad galėtume pasidalinti.

 

     WSJ: Daugelis iš mūsų žiūri mokslinės fantastikos filmus, kurie apibūdinami, kaip distopiniai, ir sako: „Dieve, tikiuosi, kad to niekada nebus“. Atrodo, kad jūsų pramonės žmonės juos stebi ir sako: „Aš padarysiu tai“. Kas yra toks atsijungimas?

 

     KHOSLA: Ar smagu 30 metų dirbti prie vienos surinkimo linijos automobilių gamykloje aštuonias valandas per dieną, prisukant vieno tipo ratus? Tai nėra įdomus darbas.

 

     [Galėsime net dovanoti žmonėms] nemokamus psichoterapeutus. Pirmieji dideli kalbos modelio AI psichoterapeutai buvo patvirtinti Jungtinėje Karalystėje vienoje iš mūsų įmonių. Šiuo metu juos vartoja 33 % visų Nacionalinės sveikatos tarnybos psichikos sveikatos klinikų. Ir kokybė, manau, yra aukštesnė. Kai turite tik žmonių, medicininės priežiūros nuoseklumo lygis yra toks įvairus.

 

     WSJ: Nenoriu, kad dirbtinis intelektas, kuris fantazuoja apie dalykus, teiktų žmonėms psichologinius patarimus.

 

     KHOSLA: Net dirbtinis intelektas turi žinoti, kada kviesti žmonių specialistą. Štai kodėl aš sakau, kad 80% šių darbų. Visada bus žmogiškasis elementas. Ir žmonės galės laisvai dirbti įdomius darbus.

 

     AI gali padaryti daugiau žmonijos labui, kurdamas utopinį ir gausos pasaulį. Aš užaugau Indijoje ir mačiau žmones be namų, neturinčių galimybės gauti medicininės priežiūros ar transporto.

 

     Taigi, aš manau, kad visi turėtų turėti prieigą prie medicininės priežiūros visą parą. Kiekvienas iš šių vaikų turėtų turėti asmeninį mokytoją. Tai yra tikros galimybės, kurias gali pasiūlyti AI." [1]

 

1. Technology (A Special Report) --- Will AI Bring Utopia or Dystopia? A Venture Capitalist Picks Utopia: Vinod Khosla says artificial intelligence will cause great abundance -- more than enough to share. Dean, Jason.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 24 Oct 2023: R.10.

Will AI Bring Utopia or Dystopia? A Venture Capitalist Picks Utopia: Vinod Khosla says artificial intelligence will cause great abundance -- more than enough to share.

"The future of AI is in many ways a blank slate -- a place where many people place all sorts of fears but where many investors see all sorts of potential.

To explore the utopia vs. dystopia scenarios, The Wall Street Journal's Jason Dean spoke to Vinod Khosla, founder of venture-capital firm Khosla Ventures, at the Journal's Tech Live conference. Here are edited excerpts of the conversation.

WSJ: The venture-capital startup world is still in quite a slump after a long expansion. You've been a tech investor and entrepreneur for more than 40 years. How do you see this current state of affairs?

VINOD KHOSLA: We saw a lot of excess in investments. But investors who are disciplined did well. We're seeing the same in the AI hype cycle. One still has to be disciplined. I like to say most investments in AI today, venture investments, will lose money. But more money will be made than lost if one is disciplined early and thoughtful about where to invest.

WSJ: You were the first outside investor in OpenAI; I think $50 million at about a $1 billion valuation back then. Earlier this year, it was about $30 billion. We reported recently that they're planning a share sale valued at nearly $90 billion. Is it worth $90 billion already? Where's the ceiling?

KHOSLA: When I look at the landscape for AI investments, the most valuable thing is not software. It's human beings with big expenses [that AI could reduce or eliminate]. If you take a million doctors and each makes $300,000, that's a $300 billion expense, just in the U.S. alone; probably 10 times that, globally. Those are trillions of dollars. If you look at accountants, you could count the same kinds of numbers, trillions of dollars spent. I believe AI will be able to do, within 10 years, 80% of 80% of the jobs that we know of today.

WSJ: Will venture capitalists be replaced?

KHOSLA: I can't say they won't. It's very hard to predict. But anywhere we rely on human expertise, AI will have that expertise better, and it will have broader information. Take an oncologist treating a patient for breast cancer. It's very unlikely that they remember the last 5,000 papers on a certain breast cancer. But the AI will know that, and the AI will prescribe the right treatment for the patient. It will be a much better oncologist than the oncologist.

WSJ: When you talk about 80% of doctors, 80% of accountants, etc., being replaced or potentially replaced in as little as 10 years, is that a good thing?

KHOSLA: We've gone through that transition before. In the early 1900s, the majority of jobs in the U.S. were in agriculture. By 1970, it was 4%.

The biggest problem is that AI will cause great abundance, great GDP growth, everything economists love -- and increase income disparity. The good news is, if [AI allows us to] change GDP growth, say, for the next 50 years, from 2% to 4%, there's more than enough abundance to share.

WSJ: A lot of us watch science-fiction movies that are described as dystopian and say, "God, I hope that never happens." People in your industry seem to watch them and say, "I'm going to make that happen." What is the disconnect?

KHOSLA: Is it fun to have a job working at one assembly line at an auto plant for eight hours a day, for 30 years, screwing one type of wheel on? It's not a fun job.

[We will even be able to give people] free therapists. The first large language model AI therapists got approved in the U.K. for one of our companies. It's now doing intake at 33% of all mental-health clinics in the National Health Service. And the quality is, I believe, higher. When you have humans, the level of consistency in medical care is so varied.

WSJ: I don't want AI that makes stuff up to be giving people psychological advice.

KHOSLA: Even an AI needs to know when to call in a human specialist. That's why I say 80% of these jobs. There will always be a human element. And humans will be free to do fun jobs.

AI can do more for humanity in creating a utopian world and world of abundance. I grew up in India and I saw people without homes, no access to medical care, no access to transportation.

So, I have a view everybody should have access to 24/7 medical care. Every one of these kids should have a personal tutor available to them. These are real capabilities that AI can offer." [1]

1. Technology (A Special Report) --- Will AI Bring Utopia or Dystopia? A Venture Capitalist Picks Utopia: Vinod Khosla says artificial intelligence will cause great abundance -- more than enough to share. Dean, Jason.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 24 Oct 2023: R.10.

 

„Žvelgiant atgal ne tik į praėjusį ar du šimtmečius, bet ir į ankstesnes epochas, istorija gali atrodyti labiau, kaip atsitiktinis ėjimas per progreso ir atsitraukimo, šviesos ir tamsos, civilizacijos ir tironijos laikotarpius, o ne tiesią strėlę, nukreiptą į laisvę ir taiką

   146 m. pr. m. e. Atėnų piliečiai, kurie rinkdavosi, siekdami politikos, išleisti viešųjų pinigų ir rinkti lyderius, kurie davė mums žodį „demokratija“, pralaimėjo, miestas ir jo gyventojai buvo prispausti po tolimo valdovo padu, pajungti didžiulės užsienio imperijos forpostui.

 

     Galbūt, Romos Respublika nebuvo demokratinė mūsų supratimu apie šį terminą, tačiau jos konstitucinė tvarka ir daugelis jos institucijų buvo šiuolaikinės Amerikos respublikos šablonai. Tačiau gana greitai ją pakeitė imperijos valdžia, kuri, nors ir išlaikė respublikonizmo lekanas, šimtmečius buvo asmeninė autokratija, kurią, savo ruožtu, galiausiai pakeitė barbariškas chaosas." [1]

1. Free Expression: The Enemies of Freedom Are Deadlier Than Ever. Baker, Gerard.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 24 Oct 2023: A.15.