Meet Ernie, China's answer to ChatGPT.

 

"Ernie Bot has some controversial views on science. China's leading artificial-intelligence (AI) chatbot, which was released to the public on August 31st, reckons that covid-19 originated among American vape users in July 2019; later that year the virus was spread to the Chinese city of Wuhan, via American lobsters. On matters of politics, by contrast, the chatbot is rather quiet. Ernie is confused by questions such as "Who is China's president?" and will tell you the name of Xi Jinping's mother, but not those of his siblings. It draws a blank if asked about the drawbacks of socialism. It often attempts to redirect sensitive conversations by saying: "Let's talk about something else."

Ernie's reticence will come as no shock to Chinese users familiar with a heavily censored internet . They may be more surprised by the chatbot's origins. For Ernie is the brainchild of Baidu, a Chinese tech giant that has for years been outshone by rivals. Now, thanks to ai, the company is staging a comeback. The extent to which it succeeds will say much about the prospects for the Chinese technology industry , which is squeezed on one side by America's export controls and on the other by Mr Xi's increasing authoritarianism.

A decade ago Baidu, as the operator of China's largest search engine, was at the centre of the country's internet. Together with Alibaba and Tencent, China's two most valuable internet businesses, it formed a triumvirate known as "BAT". With foreign search engines banned or heavily censored in China, it faced little competition in its core business.

Baidu never lost its dominance of Chinese search; it still enjoys more than 90% of search traffic in the country. Yet shifts in the technology landscape have left the company a shadow of its former self. Most Chinese internet users now trawl the web with the help of super-apps such as Tencent's WeChat. Advertising dollars have shifted to apps like Douyin, the Chinese cousin of TikTok. Meituan, a delivery platform, and Pinduoduo, an e-commerce firm, have surged past Baidu's market value of $50bn. In an effort at emulation, it launched its own delivery and shopping offerings, along with other services such as payments and social media. These mostly flopped. The company's market capitalisation is now equivalent to one-eighth of Tencent's, down from one-fifth five years ago (see chart).

Baidu's rollout of AI, however, is reigniting excitement about the company. Ernie was downloaded 1m times within 19 hours of its release (ChatGPT reached 1m downloads after five days, according to its American maker, OpenAI). Baidu's share price rallied by more than 4% on the day of release, as analysts, investors and common folk bombarded the bot with questions. Although four other firms, including SenseTime, a facial-recognition business, launched similar services on the same day, and six others have been granted approval by China's government, Ernie is generating the most buzz.

Last month Robin Li, Baidu's chief executive and co-founder, said that the roll-out of AI had been a "paradigm shift" for the company. That shift did not, however, happen overnight. 

Years of investment have turned Baidu into one of China's most sophisticated AI companies, with a system that encompasses chip design, a deep-learning framework, and proprietary AI models and applications. The company started building Ernie in 2019, making it one of the earliest firms anywhere to experiment with such "generative" AI.

So far Baidu has shied away from giving explicit guidance on what the technology will mean for its bottom line, but analysts believe Ernie will drive more traffic to its search engine and other services, raising advertising revenues. Baidu has also cemented itself as China's largest AI cloud provider, and has started offering bespoke services for companies that want AI models tailored to their specific needs.

Enthusiasm for Baidu's other important foray into AI, an autonomous-taxi business , is more muted. The service has been launched in a few cities across China, allowing users to hail robotaxis via a mobile app. But trips must still be monitored remotely, and a wider roll-out could be years away. Few analysts expect the unit to generate meaningful profits soon.

Much of what comes next for Baidu will depend on policymaking in Beijing and Washington. Restrictions on the sale of advanced semiconductors to China imposed by President Joe Biden's administration are causing the company a world of pain. Almost all of those chips, which most AI builders use to train their models, are produced outside China. Using a larger quantity of lower-powered processors is possible, but expensive.

In Baidu's case, its AI efforts rely on the Kunlunxin chip. Although it designed the chip itself, production is outsourced to companies like TSMC, a Taiwanese contract manufacturer . America's restrictions put limits on the types of chip that foreign foundries can sell to Chinese firms, and no domestic supplier has been able to produce such advanced components. Since America's restrictions were announced, Baidu has been downplaying the importance of the Kunlunxins, which may hint that it is having problems procuring them.

China is trying to catch up in the manufacture of advanced chips. On August 29th Huawei, a maker of telecoms-gear clobbered by American sanctions, began selling a 5G smartphone that, after being dismantled by analysts, appeared to contain unexpectedly advanced Chinese-made silicon (albeit not quite cutting-edge).

Xi's laws of robotics

That still leaves obstacles closer to home. China's government has taken a keen interest in the regulation of AI, moving faster than most other countries. This has yet to cause too much consternation among the country's tech executives. Regulators recognise the commercial value of AI and want companies to make money from it, says one executive. They also grasp the importance of allowing Chinese companies to compete at the global level, the person says. The approval of the first batch of bots was quicker than some had feared. Long delays to product launches, such as those for new video games, often hurt the share prices of their Chinese makers.

Yet many AI enthusiasts still find some rules onerous, especially for a nascent industry. Companies offering generative-AI services are required to identify and report "illegal content". They must also adhere to China's "core socialist values", a sweeping and ambiguous command. After netizens spotted that a prompt for a "patriotic cat" in Ernie's drawing application produced a picture of a feline with an American flag, the words "patriotism" and "patriotic cat" were blocked in the tool. Users may be put off by what Chinese AI cannot say, or fearful of being reported for asking the wrong questions. The costs of censorship and compliance will start to add up for Baidu and other companies, warns Kai Wang of Morningstar, a research firm.

Recent experience has made it clear to China's tech executives that they operate at the pleasure of the government, and that its favour can be quickly withdrawn. Internet companies were hit with several regulatory crackdowns between 2020 and 2022. Another such assault on AI could do great damage to the firms that have invested in the technology, Baidu foremost among them. The company is testing the waters in a difficult environment. For that reason it is important to watch what Ernie says—and all that it doesn't.” [1]

 Autonomous driving has obvious applications in defense, so its development is more important to Baidu than described here.

1. "Meet Ernie, China's answer to ChatGPT." The Economist, 3 Sept. 2023, p. NA.

 

Ar Ukraina tikrai suinteresuota kova su korupcija?

"Winstonas Churchillis kalbėjo apie sovietų valdžios buldogus, kovojančius po kilimėliu, o griaučiai būdavo numetami į šoną, kaip užuominą, kas buvo nepalankus klimatas ten. Šiuolaikinėje Ukrainos politikoje žaidimas yra mažiau žiaurus, nors dažnai toks pat neskaidrus. Tiriantis žurnalistas Jurijus Nikolovas šią praktiką lygina su 2006 m. trilerio „Prestige“ scena, kurioje Michaelo Caine'o Johnas Cutteris aiškina, kad magijos paslaptis yra nukreipti dėmesį nuo triuko. „Tikras žaidimas dažniausiai vyksta kitur“, – sako ponas Nikolovas.

 

Per dvi dienas Ukrainoje pasirodė dvi didelės korupcijos istorijos. Nominaliąja verte jos rodo, kad vyriausybė atima reformų iniciatyvą. Rugsėjo 3 d. prezidentas Volodymyras Zelenskis pareiškė, kad pakeis jo gynybos ministrą Oleksijų Reznikovą po kelis mėnesius trukusių korupcijos skandalų jo departamente. Dieną anksčiau Ukrainos vidaus saugumo tarnyba SBU sulaikė prieštaringai vertinamą oligarchą Ihorą Kolomoiskią, kadaise glaudžiai susijusį su prezidentu, įtariamą sukčiavimu ir pinigų plovimu. Tačiau kyla klausimų dėl abiejų intervencijų laiko ir pobūdžio.

 

Zelenskis daugiausia dėmesio skyrė jo gynybos ministro, kaip drąsaus ir patikimo bendražygio, vaidmeniui per 550 konflikto dienų. Tačiau pripažindamas, kad reikia pokyčių, prezidentas pripažino, kad jo CV buvo suteptas. M. Reznikovą daugelis, tarp jų ir Vakarų partneriai, vertino, kaip charizmatišką ir išradingą derybininką. Jis buvo vienas iš vidinių branduolių, kurie liko Kijeve per visą invaziją, nepaisant didžiulių pavojų. Tačiau jo niekintojams jis įsiminė dėl dviejų skandalų, susijusių su kiaušiniais ir žieminiais paltais.

 

P. Nikolovo žurnalistika atskleidė abu. Vasarį jo tyrimai atskleidė, kad R. Reznikovo ministerija už kiaušinius mokėjo 17 grivinų (46 centus), kai rinkos kaina tesiekė penkias. Ponas Reznikovas kažkaip išgyveno tą skandalą, o rugpjūtį jį užklupo kitas, kuris parodė, kad jo ministerija iš Turkijos pirko karinius paltus, taip pat, matyt, už didžiulį antkainį. Sąskaitos faktūros Turkijoje parodė, kad paltai buvo 29 doleriai, o ne 86 doleriai, kuriuos sumokėjo Ukraina.

 

Vyriausybės atstovai teigia, kad R. Reznikovas nebuvo tiesiogiai prisidėjęs prie nė vienos iš tų sutarčių. Jis nepaskyrė sandorius pasirašiusių pareigūnų. Tačiau prastai tvarkė abu skandalus, įskaitant muštynes su žurnalistais dėl nereikšmingų detalių, todėl jo pasitraukimas tapo neišvengiamas. „Gynybos ministras tapo pokštų židiniu“, – sako Ukrainos teisėsaugai artimas šaltinis. „Tai nėra geras žvilgsnis konflikto metu“.

 

Tikimasi, kad Ukrainos parlamentas rugsėjo 4 dieną vyksiančiame posėdyje patvirtins R. Reznikovo pasitraukimą ir jį pakeis Rustemu Umerovu. Ukrainos valstybės turto fondo pirmininkas Umerovas yra kažkoks tamsus arkliukas. Užkulisiuose jis vaidino svarbų derybininko vaidmenį visame kame – nuo grūdų sandorio, kuris leido eksportuoti iš Ukrainos blokuojamų Juodosios jūros uostų, iki pilkesnio ginklų sandorių pasaulio. Jis yra buvęs investicijų bankininkas ir žymus Krymo totorių bendruomenės narys.

 

Jis nebuvo pirmasis pasirinkimas šiam darbui. Šaltiniai teigia, kad kiti svarstomi vyrai norėjo įkurti savo komandas Gynybos ministerijoje – pasiūlymas buvo laikomas per radikaliu ministerijai, turinčiai tokią didžiulę valstybės biudžeto dalį. Vietoj to, J. Umerovas laikomas kompromisiniu kandidatu: lojaliu administratoriumi, tačiau jį gerbia ir kai kurie kovos su korupcija aktyvistai. „Jo paprasčiausiai nedomina pinigai“, – sako Jaroslavas Železnyakas, nepriklausomas parlamentaras ir kolega iš opozicinės Holos partijos. – "Dedu į jį daug vilčių."

 

M. Zelenskio komanda tikisi, kad tokios savybės leis numalšinti visuomenės pyktį. Naujausios apklausos rodo, kad šeši iš dešimties ukrainiečių mano, kad korupcija yra „pagrindinis dalykas“, trukdantis karinei pergalei prieš Rusiją.

 

Atrodo, kad prezidento kanceliarija taip pat stebėjo apklausas, kai ėmėsi J. Kolomoiskio. Kadaise buvęs vienas įtakingiausių Ukrainos žmonių, oligarchas buvo gerokai sumenkęs nuo tada, kai nacionalizavo pagrindinį jo banko turtą po kaltinimų rimtu sukčiavimu. M. Kolomoiskis vienu metu buvo artimas p. Zelenskiui – oligarcho televizijos kanalas „1+1“ pirmiausia reklamavo jo komediją, o paskui – prezidentines ambicijas, tačiau jiedu taip pat pamažu išsiskyrė. Tai leido prezidentui vaizdingai viešai pademonstruoti jo kovą su korupcija.

 

Tačiau SBU, prezidento kontroliuojamos tarnybos, vaidmuo, priimant J. Kolomoiskią, pakėlė antakius. Teisėsaugos šaltinis teigia, kad labiau nepriklausomas (ir Vakarų remiamas) Nacionalinis kovos su korupcija biuras (NABU) planavo vėliau šią savaitę pateikti kaltinimus oligarchui. Kai kurie tokį SBU žingsnį interpretuoja, kaip bandymą pavogti NABU antraštes arba, juo labiau, labdaringai, kaip bandymą sutrikdyti bylą ir leisti J. Kolomoiskiui išvengti teismo. Bylos, iškeltos baudžiamojon atsakomybėn SBU yra plačiai vertinamos, kaip labiau priklausomos nuo politinių užgaidų. SBU valdymas bylose dažnai reiškia jų pabaigą. „Pažiūrėsime artimiausiomis dienomis ir ar NABU pajėgs pateikti savo kaltinimus“, – teigia šaltinis.

 

Galutinis abiejų istorijų sprendimas – ar J. Kolomoiskis stos į teismą ir ar galima pakeisti Ukrainos gynybos ministeriją – tam tikru būdu nulems, kiek Vakarai nori toliau remti finansavimą Ukrainai. A. Nikolovas teigė, kad atnaujintas dėmesys korupcijai gali turėti tik teigiamą poveikį valdžios sukčiams. "Kuo daugiau akių turite, tuo mažiau lengva apgauti." Karinio kiaušinio kaina yra geras jo darbo efektyvumo rodiklis. Sumažėjo iki septynių grivinų. [1]

 

Korupcija taip pat naudinga mums, Vakarams, paaiškinti, kodėl mūsų režimai tose šalyse nuplaukia aukštyn pilvu. „O, Ghani buvo toks korumpuotas, visi jo nekentė“ – paaiškiname, kai Ghani dingsta iš Afganistano.

 

 

1. "Is Ukraine really interested in fighting corruption?" The Economist, 4 Sept. 2023, p. NA.

Is Ukraine really interested in fighting corruption?

"Winston Churchill talked about the bulldogs of Soviet power fighting under the rug, with skeletons tossed aside as a clue to who was out of favour. In modern Ukrainian politics the game is less vicious, though often just as opaque. Yuriy Nikolov , an investigative journalist, likens the practice to a scene in "The Prestige", a thriller from 2006, in which Michael Caine's John Cutter explains that the secret of magic is about diverting attention from the trick. "The real game is usually elsewhere," Mr Nikolov says.

In the space of two days, Ukraine has seen two big corruption stories make the news. At face value they show the government wresting back the initiative on reform. On September 3rd President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would replace his defence minister, Oleksii Reznikov, following months of corruption scandals at his department. A day earlier the SBU, Ukraine's domestic security service, had detained Ihor Kolomoisky, a controversial oligarch once closely associated with the president, on suspicion of fraud and money-laundering. But there are some questions about the timing and nature of both interventions.

Mr Zelensky focused on his defence minister's role as a brave and trusted comrade over 550 days of conflict. But in recognising the need for a change, the president was acknowledging that his record has been tarnished. Mr Reznikov was viewed by many, including Western partners, as a charismatic and resourceful negotiator. He was one of the inner core that stayed in Kyiv throughout the invasion despite the huge dangers. To his detractors, however, he will be remembered for two scandals, involving eggs and winter coats.

Mr Nikolov's journalism exposed both. In February his investigations revealed that Mr Reznikov's ministry had been paying 17 hryvnia (46 cents) for eggs when the market price was just five. Mr Reznikov somehow survived that scandal, only to be hit by another in August, which showed his ministry had bought military coats from Turkey, also apparently at a huge markup. Invoices in Turkey showed the coats had a value of $29, rather than the $86 paid by Ukraine.

Government insiders say Mr Reznikov does not appear to have had a direct hand in either of the contracts. He did not appoint the officials who signed the deals. But his poor handling of both scandals, including picking fights with journalists about irrelevant details, made his departure inevitable. "The defence minister had become a focus of jokes," says a source close to Ukrainian law enforcement. "That's not a good look at a time of conflict."

Ukraine's parliament was expected to confirm Mr Reznikov's departure and approve his replacement, Rustem Umerov, in a session on September 4th. Mr Umerov, the chair of Ukraine's State Property Fund, is something of a dark horse. Behind the scenes, he has played important roles as a negotiator on everything from the grain deal that allowed exports from Ukraine's blockaded Black Sea ports to the greyer world of arms deals. He is a former investment banker and a prominent member of the Crimean Tatar community.

He was not the first choice for the job. Sources say the other men being considered wanted to install their own teams in the Ministry of Defence—a suggestion that was seen as too radical for a ministry with such a huge part of the state budget. Instead Mr Umerov is seen as a compromise candidate: a loyal administrator, but also respected by some anti-corruption activists. "He is simply not interested in money," says Yaroslav Zheleznyak, an independent-minded MP and a colleague in the opposition Holos party. "I have high hopes for him."

Mr Zelensky's team hopes such qualities will allow them to quell public anger. Recent polling suggests six out of ten Ukrainians believe that corruption is the "main thing" standing in the way of military victory against Russia.

The presidential office also appears to have had an eye on the polls when taking on Mr Kolomoisky. Once one of Ukraine's most powerful men, the oligarch has been a much diminished figure since the nationalisation of his main banking assets following allegations of serious fraud. Mr Kolomoisky had at one point been close to Mr Zelensky, with the oligarch's 1+1 TV channel promoting first his comedy and then presidential ambitions, but the two have also slowly fallen out. That has allowed the president to make a graphic public demonstration of his battles against corruption.

The role of the SBU, a service controlled by the president, in taking on Mr Kolomoisky has, however, raised eyebrows. The law-enforcement source says the more independent (and Western-backed) National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) had been planning to issue charges against the oligarch later this week. Some interpret the SBU's move as an attempt to steal the headlines from NABU—or even less charitably, as an attempt to disrupt the case and allow Mr Kolomoisky to avoid court. Cases prosecuted by the SBU are widely seen as more dependent on political whim. Their management of a case often means the end of it. "We will see over the coming days, and whether NABU is able to issue its own charges," suggests the source.

The eventual resolution of both stories—whether Mr Kolomoisky will face court and whether Ukraine's defence ministry can be turned around—will go some way in determining how willing the West is to continue to underpin funding for Ukraine. Mr Nikolov said the renewed focus on corruption could only have a positive effect on crooks in government. "The more eyes you have, the less easy it is to trick." The price of a military egg is a good indicator of the effectiveness of his work. It's back down to seven hryvnia.” [1]

Corruption is also good for us, the West, to explain why our regimes in those countries go belly up. "Oh, Ghani was so corrupt, everybody hated him"- we explain when Ghani disappears from Afghanistan. 

1. "Is Ukraine really interested in fighting corruption?" The Economist, 4 Sept. 2023, p. NA.