Shipping Companies Are Studying Russia's Northern Coast as the Shortest Link Between Seaports of East Asia and Europe, Bypassing Southern Oceans and the Suez Canal

"DUTCH HARBOR, Alaska -- On patrol in the Bering Sea last fall, the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Kimball spotted seven Chinese and Russian vessels steaming through the frigid waters near Alaska's Aleutian Islands.

The Kimball's crew identified the main Chinese ship as the Nanchang, one of a new class of cruiser-destroyers that can launch more than 100 guided missiles. The Russian and Chinese ships, which were on a joint exercise, sailed north and east into U.S. waters, sending an unmistakable message about the region's strategic value to Moscow and Beijing, according to U.S. military officials and national security experts.

Russian warships and Chinese research vessels aren't uncommon in a region that includes the Aleutians, a strategic chain of volcanic islands that divides the Pacific Ocean from the Bering Sea and Arctic Ocean. They were the location of bitter fighting during World War II. One small island city, Unalaska, which brings in more fish than any other U.S. port, hosts the Coast Guard base at Dutch Harbor.

"But to see these combatants form up in a surface action group together and steam together, that's what's rare," said Rear Adm. Nathan Moore, who was Coast Guard commander for the Alaska region until earlier this month, when he became deputy commander for the Atlantic.

The Coast Guard called in a C-130 Hercules aircraft from another of its bases, on Alaska's Kodiak Island, and officers aboard the Kimball radioed the Russian and Chinese ships to warn them they had entered U.S.-regulated waters. The Russian and Chinese ships broke formation and departed.

Once a lonely and largely impassable maritime expanse where countries worked together to extract natural resources, the Arctic is increasingly contested territory. As sea ice melts and traffic increases on the southern edges of the Arctic Ocean, governments are maneuvering in ways that mirror great-power rivalries in lower latitudes.

In recent months, Russian bombers have increased their patrols over the Arctic and probed further south. Norway's intelligence service said that with Russia's conventional forces weakened by the conflict in Ukraine, its strategic weapons are taking on greater importance, among them the nuclear-armed submarines of Russia's Northern Fleet. More Russian-flagged commercial and government vessels are active in Arctic waters.

While U.S. military officials and analysts don't expect Beijing to deploy broad military forces in the Arctic, they said China is sharing satellite and electronic intelligence from the region with Moscow.

In response, the U.S. is beefing up its presence in the Arctic by adding to its polar icebreakers -- the ships vital to a consistent presence in the icy seas. The U.S. has just one icebreaker in the region for only part of the year, compared with three dozen owned by Russia.

It's also tracking movements of Russia and China via satellites, drones and unmanned seacraft, analysts and military officers said.

After the U.S. and other Asia-Pacific nations watched Beijing build military installations in the South China Sea, the Pentagon doesn't want to get caught off guard again, this time near the shores of America, Canada and other NATO allies in Northern Europe. Last fall's Russian-Chinese exercise triggered "Operation Frontier Sentinel," Adm. Moore's plan to respond to foreign military vessels' unexpected approaches to the U.S. in the region.

"We're telling the world, 'We're up here patrolling this area,'" said the Coast Guard's Kenneth Boda, who was captain of the Healy, the U.S. icebreaker used in the Arctic, until June. "There are certain things we don't want you doing up here."

Russia's defense ministry said the exercises, which began in the Sea of Japan, were designed to improve interoperability of the fleets and to defend eastern sea lanes and economic activity.

"China will not and has no intention of using Arctic issues to promote its geopolitical interests," said Chinese embassy spokesman in Washington, Liu Pengyu.

The Biden administration released a new Arctic strategy in October that identified national security as the main pillar for U.S. interests in the region, ahead of the environment, economic development and international cooperation.

The Russian-Chinese partnership heightens the challenges faced by America's military as it enters a new era of great-power competition. For decades, the U.S. has been focused on fighting insurgencies in the Middle East and Afghanistan, and has lately been working to reorient its forces to face a different type of potential conflict.

"Both Putin and Xi have made clear that the High North is key to their strategic interests, and it is imperative that the United States and our allies keep them from dominating this region," said Sen. Roger Wicker (R., Miss.), the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.

Russian-flagged commercial and government vessels active in Arctic waters rose to a monthly average of 709 last year, up 22% since 2018, according to satellite-tracking data compiled by AAC SpaceQuest for The Wall Street Journal. Among the vessels: the 50 Let Pobedy, a 524-foot nuclear icebreaker named for the anniversary of Russia's World War II victory.

China, for its part, is "looking for reasons to have a military presence in the Arctic," explained Vice Adm. Peter Gautier, the U.S. Coast Guard's head of operations.

The American public became aware of China's intelligence-gathering activities near the Arctic earlier this year after a Chinese balloon was first detected near Alaska's uninhabited St. Matthew Island in the Bering Sea. The balloon floated across the U.S. and Canada before it was shot down off the coast of South Carolina.

China's foreign ministry denied the balloon was for surveillance and criticized the U.S. for shooting it down.

Last year, Canadian officials seized Chinese buoys believed to have been involved in surveillance of U.S. submarines, Canadian officials said this year. U.S. officials are also investigating visits by Chinese nationals in and around U.S. bases, including in Alaska.

"If we're not there and we allow them to test our waters, it starts to look more like the South China Sea," said Capt. Stephen Adler, who was then the commander of the Coast Guard Cutter Stratton, on a stop in Dutch Harbor last fall.

The Russia-China security partnership is in part driven by commerce on the energy-rich trade route.

Warmer temperatures are opening new shipping lanes between Asia and Europe and may eventually introduce brand-new shipping routes near the North Pole. As early as the 2030s, the Arctic may be practically ice-free in September, the month with the lowest amount of ice in the year, according to a study in Nature Communications.

Shipping companies are studying Russia's northern coast as the shortest link between seaports of East Asia and Europe, bypassing southern oceans and the Suez Canal. A cargo ship's trip from Japan to a port in the Netherlands could be cut by more than half, to less than 6,000 miles from more than 12,000 miles, by traveling through the Arctic Ocean.

The Northern Sea Route, which Russia asserts the right to regulate under an Arctic agreement, allows ships carrying liquefied natural gas to transport the cargo through the Bering Strait. The route runs along the maritime border between Russian and U.S. waters just west of Alaska.

More ice-crushing vessels in the area are ferrying Russian gas to the Chinese market. Last year, Russia and China used a trio of massive ice-breaking ships flying Hong Kong flags to carry Russian LNG to Chinese and other markets, according to the AAC SpaceQuest shipping data.

The U.S. rejects Russia's claim to regulate traffic through the Northern Sea Route and has considered contesting it in a so-called freedom of navigation exercise, according to a classified document taken and shared online by Airman First Class Jack Teixeira of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

Such exercises, known as Fonops, involve sailing through waters to contest what the U.S. sees as excessive claims of another nation, including China's claims in the South China Sea and other areas.

While Russia's vast territory dominates the Arctic coastline, with well-developed ports, airfields and vessels under its control, NATO assets in Canada, Scandinavia and elsewhere would come into play in any potential conflict.

The U.S. itself has combat capabilities in the Arctic ranging from air bases in Alaska with more than 100 advanced F-35 and F-22 jets, to nuclear-powered submarines roaming the seas that can punch up through the ice, to missile-tracking radar in Greenland.

A new Pentagon planner for the region monitors stepped-up exercises in cold conditions, often with allies in the region. In a February exercise, U.S. Army soldiers from the "Arctic Angels" airborne division flew over the North Pole from Alaska to Finland, where they practiced maneuvers with Norwegian troops.

The frigid deployments are inspiring efforts to deploy unmanned vessels and to innovate for northern fighting forces. Materials scientists are working with the military to improve tools used in icy conditions, for example to prevent frozen spray from accumulating on ships and weapons, a problem previously addressed by a serviceman with a baseball bat.

The biggest gap between Western nations and the Russia-China partnership is in "domain awareness," or the knowledge of what adversaries are doing in and around a region with few people and little infrastructure.

Military officers say fixing that involves adding more satellites to provide better communication on the ground, unmanned aircraft and seagoing vessels, and long-range radar. Ports such as Dutch Harbor also need improvements.

A greater U.S. presence in the region is hobbled by a lack of ships hardened to withstand ice. In comparison, Moscow has invested continuously in ice-hardened ships that can steam through water dotted with "growlers" -- small frozen chunks.

Not since the Cold War have Arctic tensions between the U.S. and Russia been so high.

Both sides invested heavily in Arctic facilities, ranging from radar to ice-capable submarines. In the twilight of the Cold War, Soviet and American nuclear submarines collided twice in Arctic waters north of the main Soviet submarine base on Fennoscandia, near the border with Norway, causing damage to the submarines and headaches for diplomats but avoiding a military conflict.

In 1987, two years before the fall of the Berlin Wall, Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev signaled a willingness to dial back tensions. He warned in a speech in the Arctic city of Murmansk, Russia, that the "militarization of this part of the world is assuming threatening dimensions."

Three decades later, the return of Crimea and the events in broader Ukraine have rekindled old tensions, and the U.S. led Western nations to impose a raft of sanctions on Russia's economy. Western oil and gas giants halted their investment and technology cooperation with Russian firms, especially in technically challenging areas such as the Arctic.

On a visit to Nordic countries in June, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the reopening of a Cold War-era diplomatic outpost north of the Arctic Circle in Tromsoe, Norway." [1]

Northern passage is indeed short, so it could save us a lot of air contamination with carbon. Too bad that the technically challenging Arctic, still dangerous to human life in case of an accident, is removed from cooperation between the West and the East. Thanks to the global South the West's adventure in Ukraine is a complete failure. The adventure created many difficulties though, including no cooperation in Northern passage. It is time to collect the pieces, and fix the damage done.

1.  Melting Arctic --- Rivals have edge in icebreakers, ports. Mauldin, William; Cullison, Alan.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 31 July 2023: A.1.

Naujasis JAV Atstovų Rūmų pirmininkas kelia abejonių dėl JAV pagalbos Ukrainai

„Naujai išrinktas Atstovų Rūmų pirmininkas, kuris nepritarė tolesniam Kijevo finansavimui, dabar reikalauja, kad jis būtų atskirtas nuo pagalbos Izraeliui, todėl jo likimas neaiškus.

 

     Atstovo Mike'o Johnsono išrinkimas pirmininku verčia suabejoti JAV pagalbos Ukrainai likimu, nes Luizianos respublikonas, ilgametis konflikto finansavimo priešininkas, priešinasi prezidento Bideno raginimui supakuoti pinigus Kijevui į didelį neatidėliotinų išlaidų įstatymą, kad būtų galima spręsti pasaulines problemas dėl krizių, įskaitant Izraelio konfliktą su Hamas.

 

     Papildoma pagalba Ukrainai, kuri laikoma gyvybiškai svarbia šios šalies kampanijai palaikyti, buvo nežinioje nuo rugsėjo 30 d., kai įstatymų leidėjai išvengė vyriausybės uždarymo, likus vos kelioms valandoms. Skubėdami laikytis skubaus išlaidų termino ir susidūrę su Atstovų rūmų respublikonų maištu, Kongreso lyderiai išmetė pinigus Ukrainai iš trumpalaikio įstatymo projekto, skirto išlaikyti federalinį finansavimą. Tuo metu jie tikėjo, kad galės grįžti prie šio klausimo, kai tik kils uždarymo grėsmė, ir sudarys dvišalį susitarimą, kad būtų suteikta pagalba.

 

     Tačiau po kelių dienų Kalifornijos respublikono atstovo Kevino McCarthy nušalinimas iš pirmininko posto ir pono Johnsono, dešiniojo sparno respublikono, anksčiau balsavusio prieš Ukrainos pagalbą, išrinkimas į pareigas, pasikeitė dinamika. Dabar lyderiams laukia dar vienas uždarymo terminas lapkričio 17 d., o Kongreso demokratai, Baltųjų rūmų pareigūnai ir kai kurie pagrindiniai respublikonai stengiasi gelbėti Ukrainai teikiamą pagalbą.

 

     Jie prieštarauja paties A. Johnsono asmeninei pozicijai ir nemažam spaudimui, su kuriuo jie susiduria todėl, kad kitaip galvoja eiliniai Atstovų rūmų respublikonai, kurių daugelis pareikalavo atsisakyti papildomo finansavimo Kijevui ir nori sutelkti dėmesį tik į Izraelio apginklavimą.

 

     Praėjus kelioms dienoms po išrinkimo, ponas Johnsonas davė ženklą, kad nesieks visiškai blokuoti pagalbos Ukrainai, tačiau taip pat aiškiai pasakė, kad nori tai svarstyti atskirai nuo bet kokios pagalbos Izraeliui, ir griežtai pinigus Ukrainai apriboja.

 

     „Mūsų Atstovų rūmų respublikonų sutarimas yra toks, kad turime suskaidyti tuos klausimus“, – ketvirtadienį duodamas interviu Sean Hannity iš „Fox News“ apie pagalbą Ukrainai ir Izraeliui sakė ponas Johnsonas.

 

     „Mes neketiname jų apleisti“, – apie ukrainiečius pridūrė ponas Johnsonas, – bet mes esame atsakingi, prisiimame atsakomybę už brangų Amerikos žmonių lobį ir turime užtikrinti, kad Baltieji rūmai aprūpintų žmones, turinčius tam tikrą atsakomybę už dolerius“.

 

     Toks požiūris prieštarauja Baltųjų rūmų, Kongreso demokratų ir daugelio pagrindinių respublikonų, kurie mano, kad geriausias būdas užtikrinti abiejų konfliktų finansavimą, yra išlaikyti juos viename dideliame pakete. 105 milijardų dolerių priemonė, kurios prašė Bidenas, apima 14,3 milijardo dolerių Izraeliui ir 61,4 milijardo dolerių Ukrainai, taip pat lėšas Taivanui ir sienų saugumui Jungtinėse Valstijose.

 

     „Galų gale, visa tai bus sujungta, ir mes balsuosime dėl paketo“, – sakė Teksaso respublikonas ir Užsienio reikalų komiteto pirmininkas Michaelas McCaulis, kai jis stengiasi įtikinti J. Johnsoną priimti tokią priemonę.

 

     Tačiau J. McCaulis pripažino, kad, atsižvelgiant į spaudimą jo paties partijoje, J. Johnsonas jau kitą savaitę galėtų imtis skubių išlaidų įstatymo, apimančio tik Izraelį.

 

     Nuo pat konflikto pradžios J. Johnsonas nuolat šlovino ir meldžiasi už Ukrainos kovą su Rusija, tačiau balsavo prieš nuoseklias neatidėliotinų išlaidų priemones. Daugybė Atstovų rūmų respublikonų laikėsi panašios pozicijos, o praėjusį mėnesį dauguma jų, įskaitant poną Johnsoną, balsavo prieš įstatymo projektą, pagal kurį Ukrainai būtų siunčiama 300 mln. dolerių, kad ji apginkluotų ir apmokytų savo kovotojus.

 

     P. McCaulas, atstovas Michaelas R. Turneris, Ohajo respublikonas ir Žvalgybos komiteto pirmininkas, ir kiti aukščiausi nacionalinio saugumo klausimu užsiėmę respublikonai bandė padaryti įspūdį ponui Johnsonui, kad jo naujas postas reikalauja kitokio požiūrio į užsienio politiką, nei jis ėmėsi iki šiol. Per ketvirtadienio susitikimą situacijų salėje su savo kolegomis demokratais ir patarėju nacionalinio saugumo klausimais Jake'u Sullivanu jie pabrėžė ponui Johnsonui, kad jei jis imtųsi tik Izraeliui skirto finansavimo įstatymo, jis turi pasiūlyti Ukrainai tam tikras garantijas, kad jos padėtis prieš Rusija nebūtų pamiršta.

 

     „Tai nėra kažkas, su kuo mes norime žaisti politikoje; tai labai aktualus nacionalinio saugumo klausimas“, – po susitikimo sakė J. McCaulis. „Manau, kad pasitraukimas iš Ukrainos būtų siaubinga klaida.

 

     J. Johnsono komentarai J. Hannity leido suprasti, kad jis perspėjimą priėmė į širdį. Jis pažadėjo neapleisti Ukrainos ir pažymėjo, kad leidimas laimėti Rusijai paskatins kitus JAV priešininkus. Tačiau jis dar nenurodo, kada galėtų pateikti pagalbos Ukrainai paketą, kokio dydžio jis galėtų būti ar kokie apribojimai milijonams turėtų būti įtraukti.

 

     Senatorius Chuckas Schumeris, Niujorko demokratas ir daugumos lyderis, pažadėjo, kad jo rūmai parengs teisės aktus, kuriais bus kovojama su daugeliu pasaulinių grėsmių, įskaitant Ukrainą ir Izraelį. Senatorius Mitchas McConnellas, Kentukio respublikonas ir mažumos lyderis, taip pat pabrėžė, kad reikia skubiai spręsti kelias krizes vienu metu, keliose kalbose ir retame televizijos interviu teigdamas, kad Kongresas turi pritarti pagalbai Izraeliui ir Ukrainai, kad galėtų pasipriešinti Rusijai, Iranui ir Kinijai.

 

     Tačiau tiek Atstovų rūmų, tiek Senato respublikonų grupės bandė tai sustabdyti.

 

     Ketvirtadienį penki respublikonai, vadovaujami Floridos atstovo Michaelo Waltzo, buvusio žaliosios beretės, raštu kreipėsi į Senato lyderius, įspėdami juos neįtraukti Ukrainos finansavimo į pagalbos paketą Izraeliui ir pietinei sienai.

 

     „Esame susirūpinę, kad prezidentas Bidenas pasinaudojo Izraelio egzistencine kova, kaip dingstimi, siekdamas priversti Kongresą papildomai išleisti milijardus daugiau, o ne spręsti svarbiausias šalies ekstremalias situacijas“, – rašė jie.

 

     Atskira Senato grupė, vadovaujama senatorių Rogerio Marshallo iš Kanzaso ir J. D. Vance'o iš Ohajo, ketvirtadienį pristatė teisės aktus, kuriais siekiama teikti karinę pagalbą vien Izraeliui.

 

     „Izraelis turi pasiekiamą tikslą“, – rašė J. Vance'as atmintinėje, kurią išplatino Senato respublikonams prieš pateikdamas įstatymo projektą. „Ukraina ne.“" [1]

 

1. New Speaker Puts U.S. Aid to Ukraine in Doubt: [National Desk]. Demirjian, Karoun; Edmondson, Catie.  New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 28 Oct 2023: A.17.

New Speaker Puts U.S. Aid to Ukraine in Doubt

"The newly elected House speaker, who has opposed continued funding for Kyiv, is now insisting on separating it from aid to Israel, leaving its fate uncertain.

Representative Mike Johnson's election as speaker has thrown the fate of U.S. assistance for Ukraine into doubt, as the Louisiana Republican, a longtime opponent of funding the conflict effort, resists President Biden's call to package money for Kyiv in a large emergency spending bill to tackle global crises including Israel's conflict against Hamas.

Additional aid for Ukraine, considered vital for sustaining that country's campaign, has been in limbo since Sept. 30, when lawmakers averted a government shutdown with only hours to spare. Rushing to meet an urgent spending deadline and facing a revolt from House Republicans, congressional leaders left money for Ukraine out of a short-term bill to keep federal funding flowing. They believed at the time that they could come back to the issue once the threat of a shutdown was behind them, and strike a bipartisan deal to deliver the aid.

But the ouster days later of Representative Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California, from the speaker's post and the installation of Mr. Johnson, a right-wing Republican with a history of voting against Ukraine assistance, has shifted the dynamics. Now leaders are facing yet another shutdown deadline on Nov. 17, and congressional Democrats, White House officials and some leading Republicans are scrambling to salvage Ukraine aid.

They are working against Mr. Johnson's own personal stance, and considerable pressure he is facing from rank-and-file House Republicans, many of whom have soured on sending additional funding to Kyiv and want to focus exclusively on arming Israel.

In the days since his election, Mr. Johnson has signaled that he will not seek to block aid to Ukraine altogether, but he has also made it clear that he wants to consider it separately from any assistance for Israel, and put tight restrictions on it.

"Our consensus among House Republicans is that we need to bifurcate those issues," Mr. Johnson said of Ukraine and Israel assistance in an interview on Thursday with Sean Hannity of Fox News.

"We're not going to abandon them," Mr. Johnson added of the Ukrainians, "but we have a responsibility, a stewardship responsibility over the precious treasure of the American people and we have to make sure that the White House is providing the people with some accountability for the dollars."

That approach is at odds with the one favored by the White House, congressional Democrats and many mainstream Republicans who believe that the best way to ensure funding for both conflicts is to keep them together in one large package. The $105 billion measure Mr. Biden has requested includes $14.3 billion for Israel and $61.4 billion for Ukraine, as well as funds for Taiwan and border security in the United States.

"At the end of the day, these are all going to be linked together, and we're going to be voting on a package," said Representative Michael McCaul, Republican of Texas and the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, who has been working to persuade Mr. Johnson to embrace such a measure.

But Mr. McCaul conceded that, given the pressures inside his own party, Mr. Johnson could act as soon as next week to push through an emergency spending bill covering only Israel.

Since the start of the conflict, Mr. Johnson has routinely offered praise and prayers for Ukraine's fight against Russia, but he has voted against successive emergency spending measures. Scores of House Republicans have adopted a similar stance, and last month, a majority of them, including Mr. Johnson, voted against a bill to send Ukraine $300 million to arm and train its fighters.

Mr. McCaul, Representative Michael R. Turner, Republican of Ohio and the chairman of the Intelligence Committee, and other top national-security-minded Republicans have been trying to impress upon Mr. Johnson that his new post requires a different approach to foreign policy than he has taken to date. During a Thursday meeting in the Situation Room with their Democratic counterparts and Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, they stressed to Mr. Johnson that if he moved ahead with an Israel-only funding bill, he must offer Ukraine some assurances that its plight against Russia would not be forgotten.

"This is not something we want to play politics with; it's a very urgent national security issue," Mr. McCaul said after the meeting. "I think pulling out of Ukraine would be a terrible mistake."

Mr. Johnson's comments to Mr. Hannity suggested he had taken the warning to heart. He promised not to abandon Ukraine, and noted that allowing Russia to win would embolden other U.S. adversaries. But he has yet to specify when he might bring up an aid package for Ukraine, how large it might be or what restrictions would have to be included.

Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, has pledged that his chamber will produce legislation to address multiple global threats, including Ukraine and Israel. Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the minority leader, has also stressed the urgency of addressing multiple crises at once, arguing in several floor speeches and a rare television interview that Congress must approve assistance for both Israel and Ukraine in order to counter Russia, Iran and China.

But bands of both House and Senate Republicans have been trying to stop that from happening.

On Thursday, five Republicans led by Representative Michael Waltz of Florida, a former Green Beret, wrote to Senate leaders warning them against including Ukraine funding in an aid package for Israel and the southern border.

"We are concerned that President Biden has used Israel's existential struggle as an excuse to force billions more in additional spending through Congress, rather than address the nation's most pressing emergencies," they wrote.

A separate group in the Senate led by Senators Roger Marshall of Kansas and J.D. Vance of Ohio introduced legislation Thursday to provide military aid to Israel alone.

"Israel has an achievable objective," Mr. Vance wrote in a memo he circulated among Senate Republicans before introducing the bill. "Ukraine does not."" [1]

1. New Speaker Puts U.S. Aid to Ukraine in Doubt: [National Desk]. Demirjian, Karoun; Edmondson, Catie.  New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 28 Oct 2023: A.17.