Musk, Dimon Are Hyped on AI, But Not Everyone Is On Board

"Elon Musk and Jamie Dimon say artificial intelligence will be smarter than humans and transform society.

The question now is whether the prognostications of one of the world's richest people and the head of the nation's largest bank will come to fruition, or turn out to be overstated.

In remarks this week, Musk and Dimon joined a chorus of business executives making bold predictions about AI's potential for dramatic change.

"My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year," Musk said in an interview Monday with Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, Norway's $1.6 trillion sovereign fund and one of the largest investors in Tesla. The interview was broadcast on Musk's social-media platform X.

Musk, who is chief executive of Tesla and also runs his own AI company, said AI was the fastest-advancing technology he's ever seen. He predicted it will probably surpass the collective intelligence of humans in five years.

Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, told investors Monday that AI could be as transformative as some of the major technological inventions over the past several hundred years.

"Think the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, computing and the Internet, among others," Dimon wrote in his annual letter to shareholders Monday. Dimon's letter to shareholders is highly anticipated every year and read widely in the financial-service industry. He has said AI might lead future generations to work only 3 1/2 days a week.

The AI race to build the next big thing has sparked a talent war in Silicon Valley. Tech companies have poured cash into AI at a breakneck pace, with investors and analysts increasingly believing the boom is sustainable. And the technology has supercharged the stock performances of many tech and chip companies aiming to cash in on it.

Google Chief Executive Sundar Pichai has said AI could be more profound than the invention of fire or electricity. Vinod Khosla, founder of venture-capital firm Khosla Ventures, declared last year that within 10 years, AI will take on "80% of 80% of the jobs that exist today."

"The need to work in society will disappear within 25 years for those countries that adapt these technologies," Khosla said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

And yet, the technology also has led to stark warnings about the future of humanity. Earlier this week, Japan's largest telecommunications company and the country's biggest newspaper cautioned in a manifesto that unless AI is restrained, "in the worst-case scenario, democracy and social order could collapse, resulting in wars."

They called on Japanese lawmakers to pass legislation to restrain AI, pointing to rising concern about the AI programs U.S.-based companies have been developing.

In the U.S., the Biden administration last year invoked emergency federal powers to compel major AI companies to notify the government when developing systems that pose a serious risk to national security.

Still, some experts say predictions of AI's transformative powers have been overblown.

Gary Marcus, a cognitive scientist who sold an AI startup to Uber in 2016, said generative AI may one day approach a level that it can transform society. But there has to be vast improvements to approach the level of change produced by the internet or even smartphones, he said.

"It's possible as we make new discoveries and build better AI, much better than we have right now, that eventually AI could be transformative for the good," Marcus said in an interview.

Generative AI programs currently make too many mistakes, are unreliable and have a superficial understanding of the world, Marcus said.

In the short term, he said it is implausible that AI will approach human intelligence by the end of next year, like Musk predicted. Surpassing all of human intelligence in the next five years is also far-fetched, he said.

Marcus offered to wager $1 million with Musk that his prediction of AI becoming smarter than a human by next year turns out to be wrong. A representative for Musk didn't respond to a request for a comment about the wager.

"There's a lot of hype in AI right now," says Angel Vossough, the co-founder and chief executive of BetterAI, which is working on an AI wine-recommendation tool (she is drunk and overly emotional every day (K)).

She says AI systems are good at analyzing large data sets, and can make predictions or speed up productivity. But they are nowhere near being as intelligent as humans, she said, as a big part of human intelligence is emotional intelligence.

"It needs to connect, understand and respond to human emotions in a way that actually feels authentic and meaningful," she said. "I don't think we're anywhere close."

Another issue with the AI boom: It is straining resources like electricity. Chip-design company Arm is funding efforts studying how to make AI applications more energy efficient." [1]

1. Musk, Dimon Are Hyped on AI, But Not Everyone Is On Board. De Avila, Joseph.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 11 Apr 2024: B.1.

 

JAV naujienos: balsavimas dėl šnipinėjimo žlugo, o pirmininkas atsimušė į sieną--- Atstovų rūmuose dėl Trumpo pareiškimo „nužudyti FISA“ sumažėjo GOP sulaikymas

„Vašingtonas – Atstovų rūmų pirmininko Mike'o Johnsono silpnas valdžios gniaužtas trečiadienį patyrė dar vieną smūgį po to, kai buvusio prezidento Donaldo Trumpo respublikonai išmušė iš vėžių kritiško, bet prieštaringo nacionalinio saugumo šnipinėjimo įstatymo priėmimą.

 

     Procedūrinis balsavimas, susijęs su įstatymo, žinomo kaip Užsienio žvalgybos sekimo įstatymo 702 skirsnis, atnaujinimas, žlugo, 193 balsai už ir 228 prieš. Dėl nesėkmingo balsavimo sekimo įgaliojimų likimas paskendo neaiškume, likus savaitei iki jos galiojimo pabaigos.

 

     Demokratų ir respublikonų administracijos teigė, kad Section 702 programa yra gyvybiškai svarbi, siekiant apsaugoti amerikiečius nuo teroristų, įsilaužėlių ir kitų užsienio grėsmių. Tačiau įstatymas daugelį metų jaudino kairiuosius ir dešiniuosius kritikus dėl to, kaip leidžia rinkti kai kuriuos amerikiečių pranešimus be teismo orderio.

 

     Johnsonas (R., La.) ragino priimti teisės aktą, sakydamas, kad įstatymų pakeitimai užkirs kelią tam tikriems piktnaudžiavimams. Tačiau balsavimo rytą Trumpas pasisakė prieš pasiūlymą. "NUŽUDYK FISA, JIS BUVO NELEGALIAI PANAUDOTAS PRIEŠ MANE IR DAUG KITŲ. JIE Šnipinėjo MANO KAMPANIJĄ!!!" Trumpas sakė „Truth Social“.

 

     FISA suteikia šnipinėjimo agentūroms plačius įgaliojimus rinkti pranešimus iš JAV technologijų įmonių, kad būtų ieškoma grėsmių nacionaliniam saugumui užsienyje. Nėra įrodymų, kad konkretus nagrinėjamas įstatymas, 702 skirsnis, buvo naudojamas šnipinėti Trumpą ar bet kurią iš jo kampanijų. Trumpas 2018 m. pasirašė įstatymo 702 skirsnio išplėtimą.

 

     Skirtinga įstatymo dalis, kuri neturi galioti, buvo panaudota, norint pasiklausyti Trumpo 2016 m. kampanijos darbuotojo Carterio Peidžo – šį žingsnį Teisingumo departamento generalinis inspektorius vėliau aštriai sukritikavo po to, kai buvo atskleista daugybė klaidų, susijusių su stebėjimo programa.

 

     Buvo manoma, kad Trumpo pareiškimas padėjo nukreipti nuotaikas prieš pasiūlymą.

 

     „Kai Trumpas paskelbia tokį pareiškimą, žmonės išsigąsta“, – sakė Atstovų rūmų respublikonų atstovas Maxas Milleris (R., Ohajas).

 

     Atstovų rūmų respublikonai trečiadienio vakarą išėjo į karštą uždarą posėdį, negavę aiškumo dėl tolesnio kelio. Kai kuriems tai atrodė panašiai kaip vidaus kovos ir paralyžius, dėl kurių prieš šešis mėnesius buvo nušalintas buvęs pirmininkas Kevinas McCarthy (R., Kalifornija).

 

     „Aš turiu deja vu apie deja vu“, – sakė atstovas Mario Diaz-Balart (R., Fla.).

 

     Daugumos partija yra atsakinga už taisyklės priėmimą – procedūrinį veiksmą, leidžiantį pirmininkui nustatyti paprastą balsų daugumą rūmų salėje. Mažumos partija paprastai balsuoja prieš taisyklę, nepaisydama aptariamų teisės aktų.

 

     Trečiadienį 19 respublikonų prisijungė prie demokratų, siekdami kovoti su valdžia. Priešininkų tarpe buvo įgula, priklausanti House Freedom Caucus, įskaitant atstovą Bobą Goodą (R., Va.), grupės pirmininką ir atstovą Chipą Roy (R., Teksasas). Iki praėjusių metų per du dešimtmečius nė vienas balsavimas nebuvo žlugęs.

 

     Po nesėkmingo balsavimo Johnsonas sakė, kad respublikonai persigrupuos ir suformuluos kitą planą. "Negalime leisti, kad FISA 702 skirsnis baigtų galioti. Tai per daug svarbu nacionaliniam saugumui. Manau, kad dauguma narių tai supranta", – sakė pranešėjas.

 

     Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.) sakė, kad Atstovų rūmų respublikonų lyderiai privačiuose pokalbiuose ir įslaptintuose pranešimuose saugiose patalpose, vadinamose SCIF, bandė įbauginti žmones balsuoti prieš reikalavimą išduoti orderį.

 

     Pasak kalbėtojo politinės komandos, Trumpas ir Johnsonas penktadienį planuoja kartu pasirodyti Trumpo klube „Mar-a-Lago“ Floridoje, kad paskelbtų bendrą komunikatą apie rinkimų sąžiningumą.

 

     GOP vadovybė patiria nesėkmę, nes Johnsonas dabar susiduria su savo partijos pastangomis jį pašalinti.

 

     Prieš balsavimą Johnsonas susitiko su aukščiausia kritike atstove Marjorie Taylor Greene (R., Ga.), kuri praėjusį mėnesį pateikė pasiūlymą atleisti Johnsoną iš pareigų, tačiau dar nežengė kito žingsnio – priversti balsuoti. Greene ir kiti disidentai piktinosi Johnsonu dėl federalinių išlaidų ir pastangų skirti daugiau finansavimo Ukrainai. Turėdamas 218:213 balsų daugumą, Johnsonas gali sau leisti prarasti tik saujelę balsų dėl bet kokio įstatymo, darant prielaidą, kad jokia demokratinė parama neatskuba.

 

     „Jis neturi mano palaikymo, ir aš stebiu, kas vyksta su FISA ir Ukraina“, – sakė Greene po susitikimo.

 

     Trečiadienio rytą vykusiame susitikime su Atstovų Rūmų respublikonais Johnsonas pasisakė už FISA atnaujinimą ir reformą, pavadinęs šnipinėjimo programą gyvybiškai svarbia, norint suprasti grėsmes JAV. Johnsonas sakė, kad susitiko su Trumpu, nors nenurodė temos, tačiau įstatymų leidėjai Johnsono komentarus įvertino, kaip siekį parodyti, kad pirmininkas kalbasi su Trumpu.

 

     Nesant Kongreso veiksmų, įstatymas nustos galioti balandį. Tačiau Johnsonas gali pasitraukti, nes kai kurie ekspertai teigia, kad įstatymas gali galioti dar metus dėl to, kaip ir kada slaptas teismas, kuris prižiūri programą, kasmet patvirtina leidžiamų žvalgybos duomenų rinkimo kategorijas.

 

     FISA 702 skyrius leidžia JAV sekti teroristų, šnipų ir įsilaužėlių elektroninius ryšius užsienyje, kurie perduodami per JAV technologijų įmones. Nors ir skirta rinkti pokalbius iš įtariamų grėsmių nacionaliniam saugumui užsienyje, programa įtraukia nežinomą kiekį privačių ryšių, priklausančių amerikiečiams." [1] 

 

1. U.S. News: Surveillance Vote Fails, In Setback to Speaker --- GOP holdouts sink measure in House after statement from Trump to 'kill FISA'. Volz, Dustin; Wise, Lindsay.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 11 Apr 2024: A.5.

U.S. News: Surveillance Vote Fails, In Setback to Speaker --- GOP holdouts sink measure in House after statement from Trump to 'kill FISA'

"WASHINGTON -- House Speaker Mike Johnson's tenuous grip on the gavel was dealt another blow Wednesday, after holdout Republicans egged on by former President Donald Trump derailed passage of a critical but controversial national-security spying law.

The procedural vote related to renewing the law, known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, failed with 193 in favor and 228 opposed. The failed vote plunges the fate of the surveillance power into uncertainty a week before it is due to expire.

Democratic and Republican administrations have said the Section 702 program is vital to protecting Americans from terrorists, hackers and other foreign threats. But the law has animated critics on the left and right for years for how it allows the collection of some American communications without a warrant.

Johnson (R., La.) has urged passage of the legislation, saying that changes to the law would prevent certain abuses. But the morning of the vote, Trump inveighed against the proposal. "KILL FISA, IT WAS ILLEGALLY USED AGAINST ME, AND MANY OTHERS. THEY SPIED ON MY CAMPAIGN!!!" Trump said on Truth Social.

FISA grants spy agencies broad authority to collect communications from U.S. technology firms to hunt for national-security threats living overseas. There is no evidence that the specific law at issue, Section 702, has been used to spy on Trump or any of his campaigns. Trump signed an extension of Section 702 into law in 2018.

A different section of the law that isn't due to lapse was used to obtain wiretaps on Trump's 2016 campaign staffer Carter Page, a move that a Justice Department inspector general later sharply criticized after a litany of errors regarding the surveillance application were uncovered.

The Trump statement was seen as helping to tip sentiment against the proposal.

"When Trump puts out a statement like that, people get scared," said Rep. Max Miller (R., Ohio) of House Republicans.

House Republicans emerged from a heated closed-door meeting Wednesday evening without clarity about the path forward. For some it felt similar to the infighting and paralysis that led to the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) six months ago.

"I'm having deja vu about the deja vu," said Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R., Fla.).

The majority party is responsible for passing a rule, a procedural step that allows the speaker to set up a simple-majority vote on the House floor. The minority party typically votes against the rule, regardless of the underlying legislation.

On Wednesday, 19 Republicans joined Democrats to tank the rule. The opponents included a crew aligned with the House Freedom Caucus, including Rep. Bob Good (R., Va.), the group's chairman, and Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas). Until last year, no rule vote had failed for two decades.

After the failed vote, Johnson said Republicans would regroup and formulate another plan. "We cannot allow Section 702 of FISA to expire. It's too important to national security. I think most of the members understand that," the speaker said.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.) said House Republican leaders were trying to frighten people into voting against the warrant requirement in private conversations and at classified briefings in secure facilities called SCIFs.

Trump and Johnson are planning to appear together at Trump's Mar-a-Lago club in Florida on Friday for a joint announcement on election integrity, according to the speaker's political team.

The setback for GOP leadership comes as Johnson now faces an effort from within his own party to remove him.

Ahead of the vote, Johnson met with top critic Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R., Ga.), who filed a motion to remove Johnson last month but has yet to take the next step of forcing a vote. Greene and other dissidents have soured on Johnson over federal spending and efforts to provide more funding to Ukraine. With a 218-213 majority, Johnson can only afford to lose a handful of votes on any legislation, assuming no Democratic backing.

"He does not have my support, and I'm watching what happens with FISA and Ukraine," said Greene following the meeting.

In a meeting with House Republicans Wednesday morning, Johnson argued for renewing and reforming FISA, calling the spying program vital to understanding the threats against the U.S. Johnson told members that he had spoken with Trump on Tuesday night, according to a lawmaker in the room. Johnson didn't specify the topic, but the lawmaker took Johnson's comments as designed to show that the speaker wasn't on the outs with Trump.

Absent congressional action, the law will expire in April. But Johnson may have an out, as some experts say the law could potentially continue for another year due to how and when the secretive court that oversees the program grants annual approval for the categories of intelligence collection it allows.

Section 702 of FISA allows the U.S. to track the electronic communications of terrorists, spies and hackers overseas that route through U.S. technology firms. Though intended to collect conversations from suspected national security threats located overseas, the program ensnares an unknown volume of private communications that belong to Americans." [1]

1. U.S. News: Surveillance Vote Fails, In Setback to Speaker --- GOP holdouts sink measure in House after statement from Trump to 'kill FISA'. Volz, Dustin; Wise, Lindsay.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 11 Apr 2024: A.5.