"WASHINGTON -- Republicans' narrow control of the House of Representatives will usher in a return to divided government in Washington next year, likely shattering the chances of any major legislation, stoking divisions within the GOP and putting President Biden on defense as the new Congress investigates his administration.
Mr. Biden, who downsized his agenda to get bills through a Congress narrowly controlled by Democrats, will now have to contend with House Republicans who have said they plan to pressure him to cut government spending and make other policy changes by threatening to withhold votes to keep the government open or to ensure that the U.S. meets its debt obligations.
The extent of their leverage likely will be limited by Republicans' performance in the midterms, which fell far short of the blowout many in the party had predicted. The GOP has won enough seats to capture the House majority, the Associated Press said. But supporters of former President Donald Trump and congressional leaders were already blaming each other for the smaller-than-expected margin, a possible sign of divisions to come.
Legislating will likely grind to a near halt, including some bills that once saw bipartisan support but have recently drawn skepticism from Republicans, such as assistance for Zelensky.
Republicans will get to push a competing agenda if they can hold their caucus together on key priorities -- a daunting task with such a small majority.
"Everybody's relevant, nobody's irrelevant," said Rep. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.). When asked what the razor-thin majority would look like, he said: "Go ask Joe Manchin," referring to the centrist Democrat who is a key swing vote in the Senate.
Republican leaders say their plans include boosting border security, restricting abortion, encouraging more pay for police and reversing Democrats' plans to expand the Internal Revenue Service. They will also use their oversight authority to investigate the Biden administration and the president's family.
"A new Republican House is going to view its mandate as to stop the Biden administration, and I don't see a whole lot of opportunities for them to necessarily work together," said Brendan Buck, who worked for Paul Ryan and John Boehner when they were GOP House speakers.
Democrats won a crucial victory in Nevada to retain their hold on the Senate, regardless of the outcome of a coming runoff in the Georgia Senate race. The Democrats' slim majority in the Senate means a priority for the party in the next two years will be confirming Mr. Biden's nominees for judges and positions in the executive branch.
Meanwhile, the 2024 presidential campaign is kicking off, as Mr. Trump on Tuesday announced a run for president.
Several of Mr. Trump's endorsed candidates lost key races, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is seen as a potential challenger to Mr. Trump for the GOP presidential nomination, won re-election easily. The shadow primary could deepen divisions within the House GOP's narrow majority between Mr. Trump's loyalists and those ready to move on.
Mr. Biden said after the midterms that it remains his intention to run again but he wasn't in a hurry, adding that he expected to make a decision by early next year. Democrats' performance in the midterms could help Mr. Biden fend off any potential primary challengers as he makes his final decision.
Still, more voters disapproved than approved of the job being done by the president, and more than half of the electorate thinks Mr. Biden, 79 years old, lacks "the mental capacity to effectively serve as president," according to preliminary results from a poll of more than 94,000 registered voters for The Wall Street Journal, the Associated Press and Fox News.
The midterm results add Mr. Biden to the list of U.S. presidents who lost House majorities roughly two years after they took office, but unlike his immediate predecessors, Mr. Biden staved off heavy losses.
Former President Barack Obama -- who lost more than 60 seats and control of the House in 2010 and saw Democrats' Senate majority narrowed by six seats -- called the outcome a shellacking. Mr. Trump responded to his party's setback in 2018 -- when Republicans lost more than 40 seats in the House and the majority -- with a defiant, nearly 90-minute news conference. Congressional probes followed both elections; Mr. Trump was impeached twice and acquitted twice in the Senate.
After wrangling members of their own parties to pass some priorities in the first two years of their presidencies, Messrs. Obama and Trump turned to executive authority after the midterms, as Mr. Biden is expected to do. Mr. Biden and Democrats would likely block most Republican proposals. Overriding a veto requires a two-thirds vote in the House and Senate.
Republicans say they could use must-pass bills to push for spending cuts and other priorities, threatening government shutdowns, but it could be difficult to unite the conference around a strategy.
The government was shut down in 2013 under Mr. Obama, when some Republicans pushed to repeal Obamacare as part of a spending package. A spending fight between Congress and the Trump administration after the 2018 midterms turned into the longest shutdown in U.S. history.
Generally in shutdowns, government employees miss paychecks, but essential government functions remain open. They haven't significantly affected economic output, but a prolonged stalemate can affect the stock market. Polls in recent years have shown voters disapprove of shutdowns.
"When you've got divided government, you have the tools that you have at your disposal, and walking away from those tools is dereliction of duty," said Rep. Chip Roy (R., Texas). "You're not going to pass grand bipartisan bills to save America."" [1]
1. U.S. News: Political Gridlock Is Poised to Return
Tarini Parti; Andrews, Natalie; Wise, Lindsay.
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 17 Nov 2022: A.4.
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