If China is now repeating the path of Germany in World Wars I and II, and the US is repeating the actions of the UK of that time, then conflict is inevitable. Both are bleeding.
What comes next? The largest country in the world by territory remains Russia. Global warming is significantly improving human conditions in Russia. Control of the Northern Trade Route alone brings many benefits, transporting Indian spices and clothing to Europe, and European gold to India. Stifled by huge bureaucracies, India and the EU lack the order, discipline, necessary for a world leader. Closing Thucydides’ trap this time may be beneficial to Russia.
The dynamic of an escalating US-China rivalry—often likened to the ancient conflict between Athens and Sparta—carries deep structural risks. While experts frequently describe this as the "Thucydides Trap", a prolonged conflict between the two superpowers could reshape global power balances.
Proponents of the view that Russia might benefit from such a scenario often highlight several strategic advantages:
• Climate Change and Geography: Warmer temperatures are gradually making previously inhospitable northern territories in Russia more habitable, which could improve agricultural output and resource extraction.
• The Northern Sea Route: The Arctic shortcut significantly reduces shipping times between Asia and Europe compared to traditional southern channels. Russia’s control over this corridor positions it as a major geopolitical gatekeeper for transcontinental commerce.
• Shifting Alliances: As the EU and other traditional powers grapple with complex bureaucracies, and with US-China tensions threatening global stability, a multipolar order may provide an opportunity for Russia to assert itself as a disciplined and formidable anchor in world affairs.
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