About That 'Thucydides Trap'

“Who knew Xi Jinping was a student of ancient Greek history?

 

The Chinese President warned President Trump in this summit meeting on Thursday about the "Thucydides trap," but don't be fooled by the historical reference. His real point was warning Mr. Trump not to risk a war by interfering with China's designs to retake Taiwan -- by force if necessary.

 

Thucydides was the great ancient historian of the Peloponnesian War, and he argued that a rising Athens frightened Sparta and led to war. Harvard political scientist Graham Allison popularized what he called the "Thucydides trap" by identifying a dozen times in history when a rising power threatened an established power and war resulted. World War I was an example as a rising Germany threatened Britain as Europe's leading power.

 

Getting what Mr. Xi likes about the analogy? In his reading, China is the rising power and America the hegemon fearful of being surpassed. He is warning Mr. Trump in pointed terms not to interfere with China's ambitions or the result could be a destructive war.

 

No one wants war, which would be a catastrophe, but the U.S. isn't threatening to use force against China. The U.S. long assisted China's rise by letting it join the World Trade Organization and hoping it would abide by liberal international rules. Mr. Xi is the leader threatening to use force in the Asia-Pacific, especially in Taiwan.

 

Mr. Xi told Mr. Trump that "the Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations," according to reports on the summit exchange. "If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy."

 

But a war over Taiwan today wouldn't be an accident of mutual suspicion. It would be a decision by Mr. Xi -- a gamble that the U.S. wouldn't intervene in a blockade, a military assault or seizure of Taiwan's outlying islands. Mr. Xi is the only one chipping away at peace with his blockade dress rehearsals, cyber attacks and much more. Taiwan simply wants to continue not living under the boot of the Chinese Communist Party.

 

Mr. Trump reportedly said nothing in response to Mr. Xi's Thucydides play, which we hope is a good sign. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who is in Beijing with Mr. Trump, told NBC that "they always raise [Taiwan] on their side," but "we always make clear our position and we move on to other topics." He added that it would be a "terrible mistake" if China were to take Taiwan by force.

 

The test for Mr. Trump now will be whether he releases a long-awaited U.S. arms sale to Taiwan. Mr. Xi wants a veto over those sales, but Taiwan needs U.S. weapons as a deterrent as it works to reach its goal of spending 5% of its economy on defense by 2030.

 

Speaking of Thucydides and traps, one risk is that Mr. Xi really believes China is a rising power that can become a new Middle Kingdom in which everyone else is a vassal state. His economy depends too much on exports for jobs, the country is aging fast, and its military hasn't fought a real war in decades. He might fall into his own trap if he thinks the U.S. really is in decline enough for China to risk a war.” [1]

 

Taiwan needs weapons. There are none. All the weapons are going to the Iran war. Talk of a Thucydides trap is very timely.

 

The US defense industry has been depleted by the war in Iran, and US arms stocks have fallen to dangerously low levels. This raises serious doubts about Washington’s readiness to defend Taiwan, and China sees this situation as a major strategic advantage.

The pace of recovery is slow, and the shortage of weapons and ammunition is already delaying the provision of supplies to allies, so talk of a Thucydides trap is becoming increasingly real.

Here are some key details about the current situation:

• Shortage of supplies: Due to the large-scale use of weapons in the Iran conflict, the US Department of Defense has faced a shortage of ammunition. This directly limits the US’s ability to respond quickly to a potential military conflict with China.

• Delayed arms deals: While the US is considering huge arms packages for Taiwan, production and supply chains are stalling. Some analysts warn that it will take several years to fully rebuild US military reserves.

 

 

1. About That 'Thucydides Trap'. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 15 May 2026: A14.