“A year ago, President Trump threatened tariffs on European countries if they didn't buy more U.S. energy exports. Now, he is threatening to cut off diesel supplies that have become vital to the region.
Officials on the Continent are scrambling to persuade the Trump administration to hold back.
"We expect close partners to consult each other before taking measures that affect shared markets," said European Commission spokesman Olof Gill.
The bloc has been sucking up U.S. diesel, crude oil and liquefied natural gas that it once purchased from Russia and the Middle East. The European Union's imports of U.S. crude and oil products were up 30% in the first half from a year earlier, while gas imports were up 18%.
Although the U.S. has yet to put firm plans in place for any export controls on diesel, Trump said Tuesday that he would support such a move. The administration is facing pressure from vulnerable Republicans ahead of the midterm elections to bring down prices at home, where the national average has topped $6.50 a gallon.
Any type of ban would likely set off a shock wave in global energy markets, sending prices soaring overseas in economies where supply is already squeezed by the Iran and Ukraine conflicts.
The pain would be felt especially in Europe. A quarter of the EU's diesel imports came from the U.S. from March through July -- and that figure jumped to more than 60% in August.
Houthi attacks on Saudi refineries near the Red Sea shut down one of the remaining suppliers for Europe that hadn't already been hit by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran or Russia's conflict in Ukraine.
European buyers would likely outbid those in Latin America, which has long been the main purchaser of U.S. diesel exports, and in Asia, driving up prices around the world.
"The initial impact would be felt most acutely in Latin America and Europe, which account for the bulk of U.S. diesel exports," said David Oxley of Capital Economics. "But the impact on global prices would be felt anywhere that imports diesel, including the U.S. West Coast."
Diesel prices swung wildly through the week on conflicting signals from the Trump administration. The price for October delivery of diesel in Rotterdam surged more than 6% after Trump voiced support for a ban Tuesday at the United Nations. It fell after U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested there wouldn't be an outright ban on exports, but then jumped again to near a record high.
Diesel fuels much of the logistics of the global economy, powering trucking and cargo ships. It is also the main fuel for agricultural equipment. Farmers across the U.S., Europe and Asia are being hit with price rises just as the harvest season is under way.
An outright ban on U.S. exports could force consumers of all stripes to cut back purchases sharply.
"The lack of available refining capacity elsewhere in the world would likely force global diesel prices to rise precipitously to reduce demand," analysts at S&P Global wrote in a note this week.
Curbs on U.S. diesel exports would likely raise jet-fuel and gasoline prices in the U.S., they said. That is because the inability to export would likely force refiners to cut diesel production. Refiners need to produce a minimum amount of diesel from each barrel of crude oil. Without that minimum, refiners would need to cut overall refinery output.
Even if the U.S. decides not to ban exports, the squeeze on global supplies could get worse in the months to come. Refiners in the U.S. and Europe that have been running all out will likely need to ramp down for maintenance soon, analysts say. Diesel is used for heating during winter in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, another source of demand.
And damage inflicted by attacks on refineries in Russia and the Middle East might not be quickly repaired, said James Noel-Beswick of Sparta Commodities in London, a firm that advises energy traders.
"If you end the crisis now in both Russia and the Middle East -- which doesn't look good -- you don't just snap your fingers and fix this destruction to export infrastructure, to refining infrastructure," he said. "Things are going to get worse in terms of supply of diesel from here, and that effect on the economy will only continue."” [1]
1. EU Shaken by Threat Of Diesel Export Ban. Dalton, Matthew. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 25 Sep 2026: A1.
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