Treating Iran like Venezuela was a major miscalculation that left U.S. military bases across the Middle East dangerously exposed to low-cost drones and precision missiles during the conflict. This was huge, most expensive so far, miscalculation of American spies.
The Miscalculation: Iran vs. Venezuela
• False Assumption: Early U.S. planning mistakenly viewed Iran as a weak pushover similar to Venezuela.
• The Reality: Iran possess proximity, resilient defense capabilities, and a powerful network of regional strikes.
• The Spoils Debate: President Donald Trump stated the U.S. would take oil from Iran just like Venezuela, but Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei responded that a nation must win the war first before claiming spoils.
Casualties and Base Damage (Operation Epic Fury)
• Strikes: Iran launched more than 2,000 air, missile, and drone strikes across the Middle East.
• Impacted Nations: Bases and sites were damaged in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and Jordan. [1, 2]
• Losses: At least 18 U.S. service members were killed and about 800 were wounded.
• Financial and Equipment Cost: Nearly 60 aircraft and various equipment valued at about $3.7 billion were destroyed, alongside hundreds of damaged buildings.
Logistical and Supply Strain
• Bahrain Hub Damage: Severe damage to the base in Bahrain disrupted regular food, fuel, and supply access for the U.S. Navy.
• Longer Supply Lines: Supply runs had to shift to Diego Garcia—a tiny island 2,200 miles away—turning one-week supply trips into two-week journeys.
• Extended Deployments: The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln spent over 250 days at sea without a standard port call, causing severe strain and food shortages before heading home on a 13,000-mile voyage to San Diego.
Weapons and Strategic Shortfalls
• Inventory Strain: A joint report by defense and state watchdogs noted that the conflict caused strategic inventory shortfalls and exposed industrial bottlenecks for advanced munitions.
• Replenishment Time: Experts estimate it will take about three years for military contractors to replenish advanced missiles and interceptors to pre-war levels, though the Pentagon maintains it has sufficient weapons.
“A month before President Trump launched his war against Iran, construction crews broke ground on a multimillion-dollar renovation of sailors’ barracks at the U.S. base in Bahrain, the Navy’s regional headquarters. The project, backed by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, was just the latest American investment in the vast campus, which has enabled U.S. forces to project power across the Middle East for decades.
Then, in the opening hours of the Iranian conflict, the future of the barracks, along with the rest of the installation, was thrown into doubt.
On Feb. 28, Iranian missiles and one-way attack drones rained down on food, fuel and ship repair depots at the base. High-tech command facilities were demolished. Living quarters were deemed virtually uninhabitable. No deaths were reported, but roughly 1,500 service members and family members were evacuated, leaving behind their vehicles, pets and belongings.
Nearly seven months later, the base that the military once called the busiest 152 acres in the world remains effectively off limits to nonessential personnel. “We’re not getting back in there anytime soon,” Adm. Daryl Caudle, the chief of naval operations, told one displaced sailor during an Aug. 31 global town hall held from Fort Meade in Maryland. “I just want to be completely honest with that.”
It’s not just Bahrain. American bases in Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman and Jordan have been damaged by Iranian drone and missile strikes. At least 18 U.S. service members have been killed and some 800 others wounded; thousands of troops and family members normally based in the region have been sent elsewhere. A Defense Department inspector general report last week cited the loss of nearly 60 aircraft and other equipment, resulting in around $3.7 billion going up in smoke. Hundreds of buildings were damaged.
The bloodshed and destruction, a harbinger of America’s future fights, show the need for a long-overdue correction: The Pentagon must revamp how it positions its troops and equipment amid the proliferation of low-cost drones and precision missiles by America’s enemies.
The United States depends on its vast constellation of foreign bases as logistics hubs to quickly stream fresh troops, weapons and equipment to all corners of the world.
It has proved an asset since World War II but now increasingly looks like a liability in the drone age.
“It is requiring a complete rethink, not just of our basing strategy and our forward headquarters, but how we’re going to operate in the future,” said David H. Petraeus, a retired commanding general in the Middle East and a former C.I.A. director.
U.S. bases and aircraft carriers in the region have long been considered relatively safe for troops. Yes, bases and warships would occasionally come under artillery and rocket fire from militant groups, but the attacks were mostly sporadic, underwhelming and easily thwarted. Many of them were launched in Iraq by Iranian-backed militias who wanted to make the United States pay for expanding its military footprint and exerting its influence throughout the region.
Today, Washington and Tehran are in direct conflict. More than six months of fighting have shown that modern air defenses, no matter how extensive, cannot keep bases completely protected from salvos of drones and missiles.
Iran’s leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, celebrated this new vulnerability in May when he said that the United States would no longer have “a safe haven for its mischief and for establishing military bases.”
The damage is already having an impact on America’s ability to sustain the fight. The severe damage to the base in Bahrain, for instance, led to a cascading set of problems for the U.S. Navy. Without access to the hub, warships operating near the Strait of Hormuz do not have regular access to fuel, food and other goods. Instead, sailors have had to depend on a base at Diego Garcia, a tiny island 2,200 miles from the Gulf of Oman, for resupply runs that take two weeks rather than one.
One carrier, the Abraham Lincoln, spent more than 250 days at sea without a port call, except for brief stops in Guam and Oman. The protracted deployment prompted national headlines about food shortages and sailors’ deteriorating mental health. The U.S. Central Command has since directed the carrier to return home, a 13,000-mile voyage that’s expected to end in San Diego within the next few weeks.
Given how fast the world’s militaries are changing, the United States must face the fact that most — if not all — of its estimated 750 worldwide bases, ports and airfields in 80 countries have become exponentially more vulnerable to aerial attack. Russia, China and even North Korea can now launch a wider array of more powerful and technologically advanced missiles against American installations in their regions.
One way to minimize the risk is by downsizing. America has nearly three times as many foreign bases as it has embassies, consulates and missions and roughly double the number of foreign bases of all other countries combined. The facilities cost tens of billions each year to operate. Consolidating these bases would subject fewer troops to enemy cross hairs, while also saving taxpayers’ money.
Ben Hodges, a retired lieutenant general who commanded all U.S. Army forces in Europe, said bases should begin setting up more active defenses with lower cost interceptors. They also will need more robust passive defenses — like placing equipment underground and protecting structures against one-way drone attacks, such as those that have decimated across the Middle East in the Iranian conflict. “Years ago, I never had the vision or the imagination for thousands of these things attacking at once,” he said. “We need to prepare for this threat getting worse.”
Not everything can fit in reinforced hangars or underground bunkers, of course. Glen VanHerck, a retired Air Force general who led U.S. Northern Command, said the U.S. military should randomly rotate warplanes, tankers and other equipment in and out of the bases in the region, ensuring they’re available in an emergency but not making them susceptible to overhead attack.
The Pentagon should look to tricks of the past, he said, including modern-day versions of the lightweight, inflatable rubber decoys that Allied Forces used during World War II. In those days, the United States posed bogus aircraft, tanks and other equipment on their runways and garrisons to confuse enemy intelligence and draw fire away from the real hardware. “Deception, using decoys for example, consumes adversary resources to locate, track and assess capability and intent,” General VanHerck said. “Deception also makes the force appear larger and with more capacity, and it doesn’t cost a lot of money.”
Moves like these may feel like stunts, but the United States can’t afford to continue to keep doing things the same way. The war in Iran has made it clear that the military is at a crossroads. It takes years to negotiate access terms to bases and billions of dollars to build them over time. Walking away isn’t an option. But merely stepping back into its basing footprint when the fighting subsides is not tenable — and Congress shouldn’t accept the status quo by funding it.
America must be smarter in how it defends these facilities against newfound threats and in its broader decision-making in going to war. Doing so without necessary deliberations would be a needless risk of money and our service members’ lives.” [1]
1. Iran Exposed How Vulnerable Our Bases Are: W.J. Hennigan. Hennigan, W J. New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Sep 22, 2026.
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