Ukraine Has an F-16 Emergency

“Ukraine's air-defense vulnerabilities are becoming critical, and a shortage of Patriot interceptors isn't the only problem. F-16 fighter jets are the best way to counter Russia's new jet-powered drones that are now pounding Ukrainian civilians night and often day. But Ukraine relies on Western help to maintain its fighter-jet fleet, and delays have left most of its F-16 fleet out of commission.

 

So far this month Russia has launched about 2,000 jet-powered drones at Ukraine, compared to some 350 in June. These new drones fly up to 375 miles an hour -- too fast for the interceptor drones Ukraine has used to counter earlier Shahed models. Ukraine intercepts 55% of Russia's jet drones, compared to more than 90% of older Shaheds.

 

Yet jet drones are the kind of target F-16s excel at taking down, and at a typical cost of $25,000 or less. Ukraine's F-16 aces have shot down some 2,500 drones of all types and some 650 cruise missiles.

 

 But after 300 hours of flying time, F-16s require what's known as "phase inspection" to keep the engine, avionics, hydraulics, fuel lines and other systems in working order.

 

The U.S. awarded Sabena Aerospace Engineering, a Belgian company, a contract of up to some $235.5 million for maintenance of Ukraine's F-16s, though subcontractors perform some of the work.

 

Phase inspection generally takes two to six weeks in the U.S., but it's "taking as long as 40 weeks in Belgium," says retired U.S. Navy Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery.

 

Another Western source tells us that more than half of Ukraine's F-16s are currently in maintenance limbo, and at the current pace of use and maintenance Kyiv will exhaust the rest by the end of the year. A Ukrainian air force spokesman declined to comment.

 

Sabena declined to respond to our specific questions, citing "operational security considerations and the sensitive nature of ongoing military support activities." Fighter jets deployed in combat can require more upkeep than those flown in peacetime, and a shortage of specific components may also contribute to delays. But whatever the cause, this is "a sustainment failure that is becoming an air-defense crisis," says retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. David Deptula.

 

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday that Belgium would transfer three F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of 2026, and other Western partners could lend more. It's worth looking at how Ukraine can do more maintenance in-country and whether facilities in Romania can shoulder some of the upkeep.

 

Ukraine is testing alternatives to intercept jet drones, but they will take months to implement at scale. Meantime, "unless Ukraine gets the ability to kill jet-powered drones and cruise missiles, its very limited remaining air defense missiles will be exhausted," says Yuriy Sak, a former adviser to Ukraine's Defense and Strategic Industries ministries. Ukraine's defense-industrial base is very vulnerable.

 

There's a warning here for the U.S. The Government Accountability Office warned this spring of growing delays for maintenance for American military aircraft. Lt. Gen. Linda Hurry said this month that the U.S. Air Force has "a $14 billion hole in supply" for aircraft parts, according to Defense News. Ukraine's air-defense emergency illustrates how maintenance capacity is combat power in a conflict.” [1]

 

This is a result of complexity in Western weapons, deindustrialization because of outsourcing, and turn to financial services as the most profitable activity. It is possible to give birth to babies in a short time. Babies become skilled masters in quite a long time though.

 

1. Ukraine Has an F-16 Emergency. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 30 Sep 2026: A16.