Sekėjai

Ieškoti šiame dienoraštyje

2022 m. lapkričio 11 d., penktadienis

Tech Founders Apologize for Growing Too Fast

"Tech leaders who spent years eagerly adding to their staffs are now lining up to deliver a different message: Sorry, we grew too fast.

Mark Zuckerberg on Wednesday joined the ranks of tech executives offering a mea culpa, when the chief executive of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. said the company would cut 11,000 workers, or 13% of its staff. Mr. Zuckerberg told employees that he had believed the sharp shift online after the onset of Covid-19 would be permanent. "I got this wrong and I take responsibility for that," he said.

Days earlier, Twitter Inc. co-founder Jack Dorsey, who ran the company until last year, offered contrition after the social-media platform's new owner, Elon Musk, cut head count by roughly 50%. "I grew the company size too quickly. I apologize for that," Mr. Dorsey tweeted on Sunday.

Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of cryptocurrency trading firm Alameda Research and troubled crypto exchange FTX, on Thursday told employees, "I'm sorry," as he detailed what had occurred in recent days.

The pattern has been repeated at companies across the tech industry as job cuts have mounted in recent months. "I take responsibility for choosing to grow our team faster," Jeff Lawson, CEO of Twilio Inc., said in a September letter to staff when he announced he was cutting 11% of the cloud-communications company's workforce. "And now, I also own the decision to become more focused -- resulting in this layoff."

The CEOs' statements reflect, in part, the shock of the sharp downturn that worsened across the tech sector recently. They also convey the illusion of permanence that can set in during boom times -- especially in an industry that was on an extended growth run before the Covid-19 pandemic -- despite the longstanding conventional wisdom that, as investors are often warned, past performance isn't a reliable indicator of future results. For some of these executives, it is also the first time they need to navigate a significant economic downturn.

Tech companies experienced a jump in the amount of time people spent online during the Covid-19 lockdowns that began in 2020. Industry leaders responded by hiring briskly to take advantage of the opportunity and amass talent.

Mr. Zuckerberg had expanded head count at his company by more than 80% since the start of the pandemic, to roughly 87,000 employees. Google parent Alphabet Inc. added nearly 68,000 staffers, a roughly 57% increase, from the start of 2020 through this September. Twitter's staff more than doubled during the first two years of the pandemic. Twilio tripled its staff from the start of 2020 through this September, to 8,992 people.

Fast-forward two years and demand for everything from digital advertising to computer chips has slumped sharply, as people resumed routines and a deteriorating economic outlook weighs on consumer spending. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index is down more than 30% so far this year.

Companies were staffing up to meet the moment and stay ahead of rivals, said Jeff Hunter, CEO of Talentism, an executive-coaching firm. "There's all this stuff happening. They're bringing in a ton of money. They don't want to lose the talent war," he said. "And then the party just stops."

Mr. Zuckerberg, in his remarks on Wednesday, looked back at the surge in tech revenue growth at the start of the pandemic. "Many people predicted this would be a permanent acceleration that would continue even after the pandemic ended. I did too, so I made the decision to significantly increase our investments," he said. "Unfortunately, this did not play out the way I expected."

The cuts came after the social-media giant posted two consecutive quarters of declining ad revenue for the first time in the company's history.

Social-media companies alone in recent weeks have shown the exit door to more than 16,000 employees. But the layoffs span a wider spectrum of the tech industry. Chip maker Intel Corp. has said it is cutting its workforce, Peloton Interactive Inc. has roughly halved its staff over four rounds of layoffs and online broker Robinhood Markets Inc. said in August that it was eliminating about 23% of its positions.

The impetus to hire quickly was strong during the pandemic, when many tech goods and services were in short supply.

Take Amazon.com Inc. As the pandemic set in, the online retail company became somewhat of a lifeline for many Americans who relied on it to deliver daily goods while they were stuck at home. Amazon doubled its workforce from 2020 through March 2022 to about 1.5 million employees and opened hundreds of new warehouses, sorting centers and other logistics facilities to address the surging demand. Its profit nearly tripled.

More recently, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy has been trying to move similarly quickly to reset the business for a different reality after one of the worst stretches of financial performance in the company's history. Amazon's blue-collar workforce fell by almost 100,000 employees during the company's second quarter, leaving the company with roughly 1.5 million staff members at the end of the period -- though it has said it is staffing up at its warehouses to meet the expected holiday demand.

Some of the layoffs now also reflect a somewhat natural effort by companies to reassess their business in a way that was difficult to do during an extended boom period, said former Cisco Systems Inc. CEO John Chambers, who is now a tech investor. "Growth covers up a lot of mistakes -- 12 years of growth uninterrupted means that we get a little bit heavy," he said.

"When you're in growth mode, it's tough to always take the time to do all the readjustments you need to do," said Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and Alphabet, which said in July it would slow hiring for the rest of the year. "Moments like this give us a chance," he added.

Executives who have had to announce cuts are hoping that they won't need to learn the lesson again.

After Snap Inc., the owner of Snapchat, said in August that it was parting ways with 20% of its employees -- the company's ranks had swelled by 65% in two years -- CEO Evan Spiegel said: "The extent of this reduction should substantially reduce the risk of ever having to do this again."" [1]

1. Tech Founders Apologize for Growing Too Fast
Bobrowsky, Meghan. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 11 Nov 2022: B.1.

El. komercijos „entuziazmo traukinuko“ užstrigimas – bloga žinia lėktuvams

„Tikėjimas, kad pandemijos elektroninės prekybos tendencija gali tęstis amžinai, kainuos aukštą kainą. Aviacija gali būti viena iš netikėtų aukų.

 

    Trečiadienį „Meta“ generalinis direktorius Markas Zuckerbergas pareiškė, kad atleis 11 000 darbuotojų ir pripažino klydęs, manydamas, kad pirkimų internetu augimas bus nuolatinis. Klaida, kurią pakartojo tokios bendrovės, kaip Shopify ir Wayfair, yra plačiai paplitusi: Bank of America duomenimis, šiais metais Europos drabužių ir avalynės pardavimų internetu skverbtis, greičiausiai, sieks 22 proc. tendencija ir gerokai mažesnė už 2021 m. užregistruotą 26 proc.

 

    Ne tik internetiniai mažmenininkai ir reklamuotojai pateko į audringų elektroninės prekybos prognozių aukas: į krovininius lėktuvus buvo išleista ašaras iššaukianti pinigų suma.

 

    Amazon.com, FedEx, UPS ir DHL paskelbė apie automobilių parko išplėtimą. Jūrų laivybos gigantai, tokie, kaip A.P. Moller-Maersk, CMA CGM ir Mediterranean Shipping, stengėsi kurti krovinių oro transportu padalinius.

 

    „Boeing“ pasikliovė padidėjusiais krovininių laivų pardavimais, kad išlaikytų gamybos tempą, ir paskelbė apie savo 777X krovininį variantą. „Airbus“ bando pareikšti ieškinį šioje rinkoje su savo plataus korpuso A350 krovininio laivo versija. Abiejų lėktuvų gamintojų optimistinės pardavimo prognozės iš dalies grindžiamos didesne krovinių paklausa. Naudotų krovininių laivų vertės taip pat buvo naudingos, viliojančios nuomotojus ir investuotojus.

 

    Tuo tarpu keleivinių orlaivių pavertimas krovininiais pasiekė aukščiausią lygį, rodo vertintojo IBA duomenys, ir jie vis ateina: laiko tarpsniai rezervuojami iki 2024 m. pabaigos. Prieš dvi savaites Hawaiian Airlines sutiko skraidinti 10 pakeistų Airbus A330 krovininių lėktuvų Amazon.com vardu, kuri nebuvo sugalvojus nieko didesnio, nei vidutinio dydžio Boeing 767.

 

    Problema yra ne tik tai, kad investicijos į tradicinius krovininius lėktuvus yra didesnės, bet ir tai, kad mažesni orlaiviai, geriau tinkantys mažesniems kiekiams gabenti dažniau greitojo pristatymo atveju, yra paverčiami paklausa, kuri gali nepasitvirtinti. Praėjusią savaitę IBA pranešė, kad „Boeing 737“ siaurakūnių šeimoje šiemet buvo 52 konversijos, o prieš „Covid-19“ metinis vidurkis buvo maždaug 30. Gegužę „Boeing“ atidarė 737 konversijos liniją Londono Getviko oro uoste.

 

    Tai didelės investicijos. Penkerių metų senumo 737 arba A330 galima parduoti už maždaug 30 mln. dolerių, o konversijos gali kainuoti atitinkamai apie 5 mln. ir 15 mln. dolerių. IBA duomenys rodo, kad konvertuotų krovininių laivų vertinimai nepatyrė jokios įtakos. Jie beveik neabejotinai tai padarys.

 

    Per pandemiją krovinių gabenimo įkainiai padvigubėjo, bet tik todėl, kad keleiviniai lėktuvai buvo sustabdyti – jų pilvo triumai paprastai sudaro pusę oro krovinių pasiūlos. Tai negalėjo tęstis ir negalėjo kilti pandemijos kliūčių. „Xeneta“ duomenimis, spalį oro transportu siunčiamų krovinių kainos krito antrą mėnesį iš eilės ir buvo 20% mažesnės, nei prieš metus. Tarptautinės oro transporto asociacijos duomenys rodo, kad pasaulinė ekonomika lėtėja, o tai šiemet apsunkina krovinių vežimo oro transportu paklausą, net ir didėjant pasiūlai.

 

    Nors tai buvo nuspėjama, transporto vadovai ir orlaivių investuotojai savo viltis siejo į elektroninę prekybą, supainiodami su uždarymu grindžiamą išlaidų modelį su nuolatiniu vartotojų elgesio pasikeitimu. Aviacijos pramonėje, kuri kitaip turėjo baisią pandemiją, tai gali būti atleistina. Bet dabar ji turi prisiimti pasekmes“ [1].

 

1. End of E-Commerce Hype Train Is Bad News for Planes
Sindreu, Jon. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 11 Nov 2022: B.12.  

End of E-Commerce Hype Train Is Bad News for Planes

"There will be a price to pay for believing the pandemic e-commerce trend could last forever. Aviation might be one of the unexpected victims.

On Wednesday, Meta Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg said he would lay off 11,000 workers, and admitted to being wrong in thinking that the surge in online purchases would be permanent. The mistake, which was echoed by companies such as Shopify and Wayfair, is widespread: According to data by Bank of America, the online penetration of European apparel and footwear sales is likely to be 22% this year, in line with the pre-Covid trend and far below the 26% registered in 2021.

It isn't just online retailers and advertisers that fell prey to hyped e-commerce forecasts: Eye-watering amounts of money were poured into cargo planes.

Amazon.com, FedEx, UPS and DHL all announced fleet expansions. Maritime-shipping giants such as A.P. Moller-Maersk, CMA CGM and Mediterranean Shipping raced to build up airfreight divisions.

Boeing has relied on increased freighter sales to keep its production rate up, and announced a cargo variant of its 777X. Airbus is trying to stake a claim in this market with a freighter version of its A350 wide-body. Both jet makers' optimistic sales forecasts are based in part on higher cargo demand. Secondhand freighter values benefited too, enticing lessors and investors.

Meanwhile, conversions of passenger aircraft to freighters reached a high, data by appraiser IBA shows, and keep coming: Slots are booked into late 2024. Two weeks ago, Hawaiian Airlines agreed to fly 10 converted Airbus A330 freighters on behalf of Amazon.com, which hadn't ventured into anything larger than midsize Boeing 767s.

The problem isn't just that traditional cargo-jet investments are being supersized, but that smaller aircraft -- better suited to carrying lower volumes more frequently for express deliveries -- are being converted for demand that may not materialize. Conversions within Boeing's 737 narrow-body family numbered 52 this year, IBA said last week, compared with an annual average of roughly 30 before Covid-19. In May, Boeing opened a 737 conversion line at London's Gatwick Airport.

These are big investments. A five-year-old 737 or A330 can sell for around $30 million, and conversions can cost about $5 million and $15 million, respectively. IBA data shows converted-freighter valuations haven't felt a hit. They almost certainly will.

Freight rates doubled during the pandemic, but only because passenger planes were grounded -- their belly holds usually make up half of the airfreight supply. This couldn't last and neither could pandemic bottlenecks. In October, spot air-cargo rates fell for the second consecutive month, coming in 20% lower than a year earlier, according to Xeneta data. The global economy is slowing, weighing on airfreight demand this year even as supply expanded, figures by the International Air Transport Association show.

While this was predictable, transportation executives and aircraft investors pinned their hopes on e-commerce, mistaking a lockdown-driven spending pattern for a permanent change in consumer behavior. In the aviation industry, which otherwise had a terrible pandemic, this may be forgivable. But now they must take delivery of the consequences." [1]

1. End of E-Commerce Hype Train Is Bad News for Planes
Sindreu, Jon. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 11 Nov 2022: B.12.