Russians Win: Oil Markets Can't Shrug Off This Conflict --- There isn't enough cushion in the system to absorb big disruptions

 

How Russia Benefits

 

    Price Windfall: Brent crude surged over 13% to peak above $82 per barrel following the Hormuz disruption. Russian officials have projected potential prices of $100+ if the conflict persists.

    Revenue Protection: Higher global benchmarks allow Russia to narrow the discounts on its Urals crude, which had recently fallen to $40–$45 per barrel—well below the $59 needed to balance the Kremlin's 2026 budget.

    Strategic Leverage: As Gulf supplies face logistical risks, Russia's "shadow fleet" and pipeline exports (like the Druzhba Pipeline) become relatively more valuable to major importers like China, which already accounts for 50% of Russia's export revenue.

  

“The oil market has gotten used to quickly recovering from geopolitical threats. Could this time be different?

 

Brent crude futures have jumped 7% to around $78 a barrel after the Iran conflict began over the weekend.

 

There are two scenarios that could cause a more severe and lasting impact on pump prices. One is a prolonged disruption to the flow of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 million barrels a day of oil -- or one-fifth of global oil production -- transits. Second is serious damage to the region's oil production or infrastructure, especially the kind that would disrupt spare capacity in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

 

The worst-case scenario is one in which Iran does serious damage to neighboring countries' oil facilities, especially the export terminals that are difficult to repair and are within striking distance of Iran's weapons systems, according to Clayton Seigle, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He estimates that this kind of damage could send oil prices higher than $130 a barrel, which was the peak after events in Ukraine.

 

Markets are used to quickly getting over geopolitical threats because the worst-case scenarios haven't played out in recent history. The Strait of Hormuz hasn't been disrupted in a serious way since the 1980s. Attacks on the region's oil infrastructure -- including two separate hits on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure in 2019 -- have failed to do much damage. "We've had seven years of 'boy who cried wolf'" since Iran-allied Houthis attacked Abqaiq, a key Saudi oil-processing facility, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.

 

But the current crisis is on another level: The U.S. is no longer just playing hardball with Iran's leaders; it is pushing for regime change. "Iran has no reason to hold back its most capable and powerful weapons, which includes its ability to disrupt the oil and gas markets," according to Seigle. Iran attacked three commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. It also attacked Saudi Arabia's biggest oil refinery overnight.

 

While Iran may not be able to physically close off the Strait of Hormuz, it does have the ability to disrupt oil's passage -- through strikes, harassment or by placing mines, according to a note from ClearView Energy Partners. "All you have to do is make it too risky for commercial vessels and insurers to agree to send ships through the Strait," according to Rapidan's McNally.

 

If the Strait is disrupted, there isn't nearly enough pipeline capacity to reroute the oil. The International Energy Agency estimates that only about 4.2 million barrels a day of regional pipeline capacity is available. And if oil supply is hit, there isn't much cushion left in the system. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have been ramping up production, leaving them with less spare capacity than they did before events in Ukraine in 2022. On Sunday, they agreed to hike production by 206,000 barrels a day starting in April. But actual production is likely to undershoot because of the "lack of actual production capabilities," according to a note from RBC Capital Markets. In any case, spare capacity will only help if Hormuz remains open for the spare capacity holders -- Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. -- to send out their oil.

 

Can China act as a buffer? China has been loading up on cheap, sanctioned oil, putting some of it away in storage. In a report, analysts at Morgan Stanley said China could slow down on its purchases if oil prices spike, providing a cushion. But the opposite scenario is hard to ignore: An escalating conflict in the Middle East could spur even more hoarding behavior by Beijing. One potential cushion is sanctioned oil on water, although this might depend on China and other countries' willingness to cross Trump. Goldman Sachs estimates that there are some 375 million barrels sitting on water.

 

And while the U.S. is the biggest oil producer in the world, shale isn't considered spare capacity, which by U.S. Energy Information Administration's definition is production that can be brought online within 30 days and sustained for at least 90 days. It typically takes a few quarters to raise U.S. production significantly, according to a report from Goldman Sachs.

 

Strategic stockpiles can help, but this cushion is also limited. There is only so much oil that can come out of those reserves in a given day because of pipeline constraints. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve may be able to provide 1.4 million to 2.1 million barrels a day, and other members of the IEA might be able to draw down about 5.2 million barrels a day of crude, according to ClearView. That compares with 20 million barrels a day that normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. reserve is roughly equivalent to 20 days of domestic consumption.

 

Oil can still act as a deterrent to both sides. Trump will want to avoid high gas prices before the midterm elections and Iran won't want to lose its oil revenue. However, the escalation over this weekend has already shown that both sides might be willing to tolerate more risk than the markets think.” [1]

 

1. Oil Markets Can't Shrug Off This Conflict --- There isn't enough cushion in the system to absorb big disruptions. Lee, Jinjoo.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Mar 2026: B10.

„Apple“ „įperkamas“ „iPhone 17e“ su papildymais ir nauja spalva

„Apple“ ką tik pristatė biudžetui skirtą „iPhone 17e“.

 

Panašiai kaip ir praėjusių metų „16e“, tai sumažinta dabartinio flagmano versija, skirta žmonėms, kuriems ne taip rūpi kameros ir baterijos veikimo laikas.

 

Nuo 599 USD tai yra tinkamas ir praktiškas pasirinkimas, nors šiais metais jis turi keletą naujų priedų: „MagSafe“ magnetiniams priedams, tvirtesnį ekrano stiklą ir dvigubą atminties talpą – nuo ​​256 GB.

 

Be pagrindinių baltos ir juodos spalvų variantų, taip pat yra ir „švelniai rožinės“ spalvos, jei jums tai rūpi. Jis bus prieinamas nuo kovo 11 d., o išankstiniai užsakymai bus priimami nuo trečiadienio.

 

Žvelgiant į specifikacijas, „iPhone 17e“ yra šiek tiek geresnis pasiūlymas nei praėjusių metų „iPhone 16e“.

 

Abu telefonai turi tą patį 6,1 colio ekraną, bet  „MagSafe“ technologija „16e“ modelyje man buvo neprieinama, tas labai nepatiko. Abu modeliai turi vieną galinę 48 megapikselių kamerą, kurios pakanka pagrindiniam fotografavimui, nors man trūksta platesnio kampo kadrų, būdingų brangesniems modeliams. Be to, jie turi avarines funkcijas, kurios būdingos visiems „iPhone“ telefonams, įskaitant palydovinius pranešimus ir avarijų aptikimą.

 

Štai ką gautumėte, jei pasirinktumėte sumokėti 200 USD daugiau už visavertį „iPhone 17“:

 

-- Antra galinė kamera su itin plataus kampo objektyvu

 

-- Geresnė asmenukių kamera

 

-- Reaguojantis, visada įjungtas ekranas su „Dynamic Island“ funkcija

 

-- Ilgesnis baterijos veikimo laikas (30 valandų vaizdo įrašų atkūrimo, palyginti su 26 valandomis „17e“ modelyje)

 

-- Greitesnis „MagSafe“ įkrovimas

 

-- Programuojamas veiksmų mygtukas

 

Yra priežasčių rinktis naują „e“ „iPhone“, o ne panašios kainos naudotą įrenginį.

 

Kadangi „iPhone 17e“ turi naują A19 lustą, „Apple“ jį palaikys ilgiau. Programinės įrangos atnaujinimų galite tikėtis gauti maždaug septynerius metus.

 

Šis modelis, užtikrinantis ateitį, yra pigiausias įrenginys, suderinamas su „Apple Intelligence“. „Apple“ dirbtinio intelekto funkcijos šiuo metu gali būti nebūtinos, tačiau tai gali pasikeisti, jei ir kada ateis ilgai žadėtas „Siri“ atnaujinimas.

 

Nepaisant to, teisingas palyginimas būtų naudotas „iPhone 16“, kurį „Verizon“ parduoda maždaug už tokią pačią kainą. Taip pat suderinamas su „Apple Intelligence“, jis suteiktų jums antrą kamerą, „Dynamic Island“ ir programuojamą veiksmų mygtuką bei keletą papildomų privalumų. Tačiau kai kuriais atžvilgiais jis taip pat blogesnis: už tokią kainą gaunate tik pusę atminties – 128 GB.

 

Pirmadienį „Apple“ taip pat pristatė atnaujintą „iPad Air“. Vėliau šią savaitę bendrovė užsiminė apie papildomas produkto naujienas.“ [1]

 

1. Apple's 'Affordable' iPhone 17e Gets Frills and a New Color. Nguyen, Nicole.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Mar 2026: A9.

 

Apple's 'Affordable' iPhone 17e Gets Frills and a New Color

 

“Apple just announced the budget-focused iPhone 17e.

 

Similar to last year's 16e, it's a scaled-back edition of the current flagship, aimed at people who don't care as much about cameras and battery life.

 

At $599 and up, it's a decent utilitarian option, though this year, it's getting some new frills: MagSafe for magnetic snap-on accessories, stronger display glass and double the storage capacity, starting at 256 GB.

 

There's also one that's "soft pink," if you care about that kind of thing, in addition to basic white and black options. It's available on March 11, with preorders starting Wednesday.

 

Looking at the specs, the iPhone 17e is a slightly better deal than last year's iPhone 16e.

 

Both phones have the same 6.1-inch screen, but no MagSafe on the 16e was a deal breaker for me. They both have the single, rear 48-megapixel camera, enough for basic shooting, though I miss the wider-angle shots found on more expensive models. And they have the emergency features that make sense for all iPhones, including satellite messaging and crash detection.

 

Here's what you would get if you chose to pay $200 more for the full-fledged iPhone 17:

 

-- A second rear-facing camera with an Ultra Wide lens

 

-- A better selfie camera

 

-- A more responsive, always-on display with the Dynamic Island

 

-- Longer battery life (30 hours of video playback vs. the 17e's 26 hours)

 

-- Faster MagSafe charging

 

-- A programmable Action button

 

There are reasons to choose a new "e" iPhone over a similarly priced secondhand device.

 

 Because the iPhone 17e has the fresh A19 chip, Apple will support it for longer. You can expect to get software updates for about seven years.

 

Speaking of future-proofing, this model is the cheapest device compatible with Apple Intelligence. Apple's AI features may not be essential now, but that could change if and when the long-promised Siri overhaul comes.

 

That said, a fair comparison would be a secondhand iPhone 16, which Verizon is selling for about the same price. Also compatible with Apple Intelligence, it would get you that second camera, the Dynamic Island and programmable Action button and some additional perks. But it's also worse in some ways: At that price, you only get half the storage -- 128GB.

 

On Monday, Apple also introduced an upgraded iPad Air. The company teased additional product news later in the week.” [1]

 

1. Apple's 'Affordable' iPhone 17e Gets Frills and a New Color. Nguyen, Nicole.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Mar 2026: A9.

Eksperimentas rodo, kad Marso mikrobai galėjo pasiekti Žemę

„Gyvos bakterijos laboratorijoje išgyveno slėgį, panašų į asteroido smūgį į Raudonąją planetą, o tai rodo hipotetinį scenarijų, pagal kurį mūsų planetoje buvo pasėta gyvybė.

 

Niekas iš tikrųjų nežino, kaip Žemėje atsirado gyvybė, tačiau viena teorija teigia, kad mikrobai atkeliavo meteoritais, o mes esame tų mažyčių klajoklių palikuonys. Jie netgi galėjo atvykti iš Marso.

 

„Turime Marso meteoritų“, kurie pasiekė Žemę po priešistorinių asteroidų smūgių į Raudonąją planetą, sakė K. T. Rameshas, ​​smūgių ekspertas iš Johnso Hopkinso universiteto. Lengva įsivaizduoti, kad vienas iš jų būtų perpildytas mikrobų, sklindančių per pirmykščius Žemės dangus.

 

Ši teorija, žinoma kaip litopanspermija, lieka nepagrįsta, ypač dėl to, kad Marse vis dar sunku rasti įrodymų apie išnykusią nežemišką gyvybę. Tačiau dr. Rameshas ir jo kolegos buvo smalsūs, ar bent jau mikrobai galėtų šokinėti tarp planetų. Ar bakterijos galėtų išgyventi, jei jas nuo planetos paviršiaus numestų asteroido smūgis?

 

Komandos laboratorija Šis eksperimentas pateikia įtikinamų įrodymų, kad toks scenarijus yra įmanomas. Antradienį Nacionalinės mokslų akademijos leidinyje „NEXUS“ paskelbti komandos rezultatai turi įtakos tam, kaip tokiose planetose kaip mūsų galėjo būti apgyvendinta gyvybė.

 

Niekas rimtai neteigia, kad galime turėti marsiečių protėvius. Tačiau šis tyrimas rodo, kad mikrobai gali ne tik ignoruoti vieną žiauriausių procesų kosmose, bet ir pasinaudoti juo, kad skraidytų po žvaigždes.

 

„Mes nuolat iš naujo apibrėžiame gyvybės ribas“, – sakė Madhanas Tirumalai, Hiustono universiteto mikrobiologas, nedalyvavęs naujame tyrime. „Šis straipsnis yra dar vienas pavyzdys.“

 

Mokslininkai jau seniai svarsto, ar mikrobai gali išgyventi meteoritų smūgius. Juk daugybė organizmų, vadinamų ekstremofilais, Žemėje išgyvena aukštą temperatūrą, didelį rūgštingumą ir nepaprastą druskingumą – kartais visa tai vienu metu. Kitiems pavyksta išgyventi intensyvių kosminių skrydžių švariųjų patalpų protokolų akivaizdoje ir pasiekti kosmosą, įsikibę į erdvėlaivių vidų ir net Tarptautinės kosminės stoties išorę.

 

Mikrobai nėra atsparūs asteroidams – net ir gana nedideli kosminių uolienų smūgiai gali išlaisvinti energiją, panašią į branduolinių bombų, išgarindami mikroorganizmus epicentre. Tačiau patvarūs mikrobai smūgio vietos pakraščiuose gali pasiekti kosmosą išmesdami paviršiaus medžiagą.

 

Tyrimui Johnso Hopkinso universiteto komanda milžinišku greičiu šaudė metalinėmis plokštelėmis į mikroorganizmus. Susidūrimai sukėlė itin didelį slėgį, susijusį su asteroidų smūgiais, kurie dažniausiai kamuoja Marsą.

 

Kalbant apie savo nenorintį mikrobinį varžovą, komanda pasirinko Deinococcus radiodurans. Aptinkamas Atakamos dykumoje Čilėje, tai bakterijų pasaulio neįtikėtinasis Hulk: jis gali greitai atsinaujinti ir yra atsparus. dėl per didelės dehidratacijos, stiprių cheminių medžiagų ir galingos spinduliuotės – todėl tai puikus kandidatas į mikrobą, kuris lengvai galėtų keliauti kosmose.

 

Komanda įspraudė D. radiodurans mėginius tarp dviejų plieninių plokščių, o tada į juos apšaudė kita metaline plokšte iki 300 mylių per valandą greičiu. Smūgiai sukėlė slėgį nuo vieno iki trijų gigapaskalių, arba 10–30 kartų didesnį nei slėgis Marianų įdubos, giliausios vandenyno bedugnės Žemėje, dugne.

 

„Nežinojome, ko tikėtis“, – sakė Lily Zhao, Johnso Hopkinso universiteto doktorantė, vadovavusi eksperimentams. Jie nepuoselėjo didelių vilčių. „Tiesą sakant, būtume džiaugęsi matę 1 procentą išgyvenusiųjų.“

 

Bakterijos pasirodė esančios atkaklios. Per pirmuosius smūgius beveik nė viena bakterija nežuvo. Net ir tyrėjams padidinus slėgį, dauguma bakterijų atrodė neperšaunamos.

 

Esant 1,4 gigapaskalio slėgiui, vidutiniškai 95 procentai mikrobų išliko. Esant 2,4 gigapaskalio slėgiui, šis skaičius sumažėjo iki 60 procentų, o esant 2,9 gigapaskalio slėgiui – iki kiek mažiau nei 10 procentų.

 

Komanda negalėjo nustatyti smūgio slėgio, kuris būtų sunaikinęs mikrobus – jų eksperimentinis aparatas pradėjo irti dar prieš sunaikinant bakterijas. „Metalai iro ir lūžo anksčiau nei ląstelės“, – sakė ponia Zhao.

 

Nors dabar jo paviršius yra apšvitinta dykynė, „Marsas prieš milijardus metų buvo labai kitoks“, – sakė dr. Ramesh – karalystė, papuošta ežerais, upėmis ir galbūt net milžinišku vandenynu. Anuomet asteroidų smūgiai galėjo paversti gausybę Marso mikrobų astronautais.

 

Po stulbinamos šių eksperimentų sėkmės ponia Zhao tikisi panaudoti kitų rūšių bakterijas, taip pat papildomus mikroorganizmus, tokius kaip grybai ir archėjos, savo šaudyklos gale. Ji tikisi rasti panašų atsparumo adamantinui lygį.

 

„Gyvybė visada yra atsparesnė, nei tikimės“, – sakė ponia Zhao.“ [1]

 

1. Experiment Shows Possibility of Martian Microbes Hitching a Ride to Earth. Andrews, Robin George.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Mar 3, 2026.

Experiment Shows Possibility of Martian Microbes Hitching a Ride to Earth

“Hearty bacteria in a lab survived pressures comparable to an asteroid strike on the red planet, suggesting a hypothetical scenario in which our planet was seeded with life.

 

No one really knows how life started on Earth, but one theory is that microbes hitched a ride on meteorites, and we’re the descendants of those tiny vagabonds. They may have even come from Mars.

 

“We have Martian meteorites” that made it to Earth after prehistoric asteroid strikes on the red planet, said K.T. Ramesh, an impacts expert at Johns Hopkins University. It’s easy to imagine one suffused with microbes plunging through Earth’s primeval skies.

 

This theory, known as lithopanspermia, remains unsubstantiated, not least because evidence of extinct alien life remains elusive on Mars. But Dr. Ramesh and his colleagues were curious if it was at least possible for microbes to hop between planets. Could bacteria survive if they were flung off a planet’s surface by an asteroid strike?

 

The team’s lab experiment offers compelling evidence that such a scenario is possible. Published Tuesday in The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences NEXUS, the team’s results have implications for how planets like ours might have been seeded with life.

 

No one is seriously claiming that we might have Martian ancestors. But this research shows that microbes cannot only brush off one of the most violent processes in the cosmos, but also take advantage of it to sail across the stars.

 

“We continuously redefine the limits of life,” said Madhan Tirumalai, a microbiologist at the University of Houston who was not involved with the new study. “This paper is another example.”

 

Scientists have long wondered if microbes can survive meteorite impacts. After all, plenty of organisms known as extremophiles survive high temperatures, extreme acidities and extraordinary salinities — sometimes all at once — on Earth. Others manage to persist in the face of intensive spaceflight clean-room protocols and make it all the way to space, clinging to the insides of spacecraft and even the outside of the International Space Station.

 

Microbes aren’t asteroid-proof — even relatively modest space rock strikes can unleash energies comparable to nuclear bombs, vaporizing micro-organisms at ground zero. But durable microbes on the edges of an impact site might be able to hitch a ride to space on jettisoned surface material.

 

For the study, the team at Johns Hopkins fired metal plates at microorganisms at tremendous speeds. The collisions generated extreme pressures associated with the sorts of asteroid impacts that commonly afflict Mars.

 

As for their unwilling microbial challenger, the team chose Deinococcus radiodurans. Found in the Atacama Desert in Chile, it’s the Incredible Hulk of the bacterial world: It can quickly self-repair, and it’s resistant to excessive dehydration, strong chemicals and powerful radiation — making it an excellent candidate for a microbe that could easily handle space travel.

 

The team sandwiched samples of D. radiodurans between two steel plates, then fired another metal plate at them at speeds of up to 300 miles per hour. The impacts generated pressures between one and three gigapascals, or between 10 and 30 times the pressure at the bottom of the Mariana Trench, the deepest oceanic chasm on Earth.

 

“We didn’t know what to expect,” said Lily Zhao, the doctoral student at the Johns Hopkins University who led the experiments. They didn’t have high hopes. “We would have been excited to see 1 percent survival, honestly.”

 

The bacteria proved to be tenacious. In the initial impacts, almost none of the bacteria perished. Even when the researchers ramped up the pressure, most of the bacteria appeared to be bulletproof.

 

At 1.4 gigapascals, an average of 95 percent of the microbes persisted. That dropped to 60 percent at 2.4 gigapascals, and just under 10 percent at 2.9 gigapascals.

 

The team couldn’t determine the impact pressure that would have exterminated the microbes — their experimental apparatus began to fall apart before the bacteria were wiped out. “The metals were failing and fracturing before the cells,” Ms. Zhao said.

 

Although its surface is now an irradiated wasteland, “Mars was very different billions of years ago,” Dr. Ramesh said — a realm decorated with lakes, rivers, perhaps even a giant ocean. Back then, asteroid strikes might have turned copious Martian microbes into astronauts.

 

Fresh off the smashing success of these experiments, Ms. Zhao hopes to put other kinds of bacteria, as well as additional microorganisms like fungi and archaea, at the end of her shooting gallery. She anticipates finding similar levels of adamantine resistance.

 

“Life is always hardier than we expect it to be,” Ms. Zhao said.” [1]

 

1. Experiment Shows Possibility of Martian Microbes Hitching a Ride to Earth. Andrews, Robin George.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Mar 3, 2026.