"The metal used in construction has become cheaper
again, and this is bad news for hobbyists investing in real estate.
Although developers and builders are pulling in a harmonious
chorus that apartment prices will not fall, because something has become more
expensive, the builders end up running to Norway, it's just that they think
that Lithuania is so unique that everything can only get more expensive here,
the reality is that problems are coming for people who
bought an apartment for investment at the wrong time.
This bad news was not brought by the Swedes, Americans or
Chinese, whose real estate market is already stagnating and prices are, let's
say, undergoing a correction, but by our Lithuanian banks, which are
successfully raising interest rates because the Euribor is increasing.
"A real example. A person rents an apartment in
Santariškės. He receives 560 euros per month from this activity, but his loan
payment increased to 750 euros after recalculation. In reality, the amount of
apartment rent from this month does not cover the monthly amount of the loan,
you need to add your own.
Thus, another Trojan horse appears in the real estate
market, the consequences of which are unclear", explains the market
participant, who did not want to give his name, and says that rental income is
just bare numbers. If the contract is legal, personal income tax (PIT),
apartment insurance must be deducted from the income. There is even less money
that can be given to the bank.
"Two years ago, I calculated myself whether it was
worth buying such an apartment, then the prices were much lower, but it turned
out that even then the rent barely covered the loan, and if GPM and apartment
insurance were excluded, I would have had to add it from my own pocket. And
this was at a time when Euribor was zero percent. The hardest thing now is for
those who wanted to get rich quickly and bought not one but several
apartments," the same person teaches and says that now "the numbers
are getting harder and harder to add up."
Preliminary loan payment on 150,000 euros loan – 670 euros per month
without insurance and GPM. In order for such a business to make sense, you need
to rent a home for 850-950 euros, which is difficult or impossible with the
rental market's oversupply and falling prices.
Another problem is that the housing market is practically
dead and there are relatively few transactions. No one knows what the real
price is today, because, as the developers say, it is "contractual"
and not published anywhere. If there is a correction, people who invested
during the peak will not even be able to get out of this activity, because
after selling the house, they will still owe the bank. This also happened
during the last crisis, when those who could not pay fell into debt. It was
impossible to sell and simply forget about the failed investment, because the
banks still demanded the rest of the loan.
The fact that "apartments for investment" is no
longer such a fun investment, as explained by various gurus from the stage, is
also recognized by analysts.
According to Raimonds Reginis, head of Ober-Haus market
research for the Baltic countries, there is currently no panic in the market,
there is a mood of anticipation, but housing or other real estate is usually
purchased for a longer period of time and you have to accept various market ups
and downs:
"A rare investor can boast of having entered the market
at its bottom and exited at its peak. In any case, we can expect that the
overall long-term development prospects of the country or its individual
regions will remain positive, so those investing in real estate just need to be
interested in this market and avoid an overly aggressive investment strategy,
so in the long term, the real estate market should generate positive
returns."
When buying real estate that will be rented out, you should
consider not only your ability to repay the loan, but also other additional
costs associated with the new purchase.
Estateguru investor relations manager Vaidotas Šumskis
reminded that those buying real estate as an investment should also assess the
possible financial and time costs of maintaining the real estate. It should
also be taken into account that, as the economic situation worsens, the
financial situation of tenants also deteriorates, and they may become
insolvent, it may take time to find new tenants, rental prices may decrease to
such an extent that the rental income received by those who invested in real
estate with a loan may no longer be sufficient for the loan to cover premiums.
"With rising interest rates, it is more expensive to
renovate a depreciated property if you have to borrow for the
renovations." After assessing these risks, rising interest rates and
significantly reduced rental profitability, it can be assumed that currently
investing in real estate with a loan is less attractive than before, so the
popularity of other investment alternatives may increase in Lithuania, as
investors try to find solutions that provide higher returns," he said.
Translated into human language, if a person suffers losses
from several properties with the addition of a drop in the standard of living,
it can be difficult for him to survive and support his family. All the more so
because the economic winter, it seems, is just beginning and there is less and
less easy money "out of thin air". People who don't want to lose
their wealth will have to go look for additional work or even find a paid job
if they didn't have it before.
The wave of layoffs sweeping through technology companies
will benefit the entire sector - it will stabilize the inflated salaries of IT
specialists and allow smaller businesses to hire employees cheaper, says
Andrius Bičeika, deputy head of Revolut Bank and member of the board. According
to him, the company itself does not plan layoffs, and sees crediting and
business services as one of the most important niches for future development.
Last year up to 35 percent of all of Revolut's revenue came
from cryptocurrency revenue, Revolut founder and CEO Nikolaj Storonskis told
Bloomberg. The company allows users to trade cryptocurrencies through the app,
and provides these services through third-party intermediaries.
This year, since the beginning of the bear market, Revolut
has received less than 5% from cryptocurrencies.”
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