Iran Puts Europe in Range by Firing at Distant Base

 

 

“When Iranian missile crews rolled two of their largest weapons out of hiding and launched them at the U.S.-U.K. Diego Garcia military base 2,500 miles away, they revealed the Islamic Republic had longer-range missiles than many analysts had realized.

 

The attack on Friday was Iran's first use of intermediate-range ballistic missiles, ones that fly far enough to hit much of Europe. The Trump administration had cited Iran's work on missiles that could one day carry nuclear weapons to the U.S. among its reasons for going to war.

 

Iran's leaders had been insisting they had limited their missile ranges to about half the distance to Diego Garcia.

 

Friday's missiles missed their target -- one failed in flight and the other disappeared after a Navy destroyer launched SM-3 interceptors, U.S. officials said. But Tehran demonstrated progress on the capacity to strike far beyond the Middle East. "It shows how far the decision-making process is moving toward the extreme," said Danny Citrinowicz, who formerly headed the Iran desk for Israeli military intelligence.

 

By aiming at Diego Garcia, a U.S.-U.K. military base about as far away as London or Paris, Tehran has created a new security challenge for Europe and parts of the Pacific.

 

European countries have worried Iran might upgrade its missile arsenal to increase its range and target them. The launches make that hypothetical threat real, said Douglas Barrie, a specialist in military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on Friday on social media that the U.K. is putting British lives at risk by allowing its bases to be used in the war.

 

Following the attack, the U.K. granted the U.S. greater access to its bases to strike targets in Iran and prevent the regime from firing missiles or threatening shipping.

 

Israel said the missiles fired at Diego Garcia had two stages. That suggests Iran might instead have adapted one of its purportedly civilian space launchers for military purposes, said Fabian Hinz, an independent missile analyst.

 

The complexity of reworking an existing warhead or missile means Iran likely prepared for the attack long before the war, said Farzin Nadimi, an Iran-focused senior fellow with the Washington Institute, a U.S. think tank.

 

He said it wasn't clear if the missiles fired by Iran could actually reach Diego Garcia, given they didn't hit their target. Building longer-range missiles that can work reliably is complicated owing to the stresses they experience in flight. The prospect of missiles that could reach the U.S. from Iran was considered unlikely even before the damage done by the war.

 

Diego Garcia, on a remote island in the British Indian Ocean Territory, is a base where the U.S. hosts bombers, nuclear submarines and guided-missile destroyers.

 

The U.S. military had taken seriously the risk of an Iranian missile strike and positioned a guided-missile destroyer near the base, U.S. officials said. The destroyer fired SM-3 interceptors at the incoming missiles, they said.

 

The more significant change in Iran might be strategic. Iran's rulers had approached previous conflicts with the U.S. and Israel with measured responses aimed at avoiding escalatory spirals. But with protests, an economic crisis, the killing of top leaders and military pressure pushing the regime toward collapse, they decided on a more-aggressive approach this time in hopes of deterring the U.S. and Israel from attacking them again.

 

Jeffrey Lewis, an arms-control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said Iran has long had the technical capability to develop intermediate-range missiles but was held back by a political reluctance to use it. That line has now been crossed. "There's sort of no going back," Lewis said.

 

The decision raises the risk that Iran's leaders might have a change of heart regarding their nuclear program as well, he said. Iran was close to being able to build a nuclear weapon but said repeatedly it would never take that step.

 

In both cases, the Islamic Republic has held back in hopes of avoiding the sort of war it is now having to fight, Lewis said. With that strategy clearly having failed, the risk is that Iran could look to acquire nuclear weapons as a deterrent, if able to do so.

 

"If the regime survives, which it's proving surprisingly resilient, then I think there's no reason to think they won't just go ahead and complete these programs," Lewis said.” [1]

 

Iran has strangled the Western economy with drones and missiles. This is the basis of Iran’s resilience.

 

The current conflict shows that Iran’s asymmetric strategy, based on the production of cheap drones and missiles, has indeed become a serious challenge to the Western economy and their defense capabilities. The impact on the Western market is critical as of March 2026.

 

Economic impact on the West

 

Energy crisis: Iranian threats and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes, have caused fuel prices in Europe and the United States to almost double.

 

Supply chain disruptions: Attacks on shipping have forced cargo carriers to take thousands of kilometers longer routes around Africa, which has drastically increased transportation costs and insurance premiums.

 

Inflation: As energy and logistics prices rise, everyday goods become more expensive, making it harder for Western central banks to control inflation.

 

The Basis of Iran’s Resilience: “Precise Mass”

 

Iran has successfully exploited a “precise mass” strategy that allows even a sanctions-hit state to achieve its strategic goals:

 

Low cost versus expensive defense: A single Iranian Shahed-136 drone costs about $30,000–100,000, while a single Patriot interceptor missile used by the West costs $3–4 million. This disparity financially drains Western defense budgets.

 

Manufacturing Resilience: Drones are manufactured using commercial components that are difficult to prevent through sanctions. Mobile factories allow production to continue even after airstrikes on key infrastructure.

 

Defense Overload: Iran uses drone “swarms” to outnumber missile defense systems, which are physically unable to produce enough expensive missiles to shoot down all targets.

 

While Israeli and U.S. forces have destroyed a large portion of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers, drone capabilities remain highly resilient and continue to threaten energy facilities and trade routes.

 

 

1. World News: Iran Puts Europe in Range by Firing at Distant Base. Holliday, Shelby; Lieber, Dov.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 23 Mar 2026: A6.