“Escalating Iranian attacks and the U.S. government's decision to hold off on military escorts for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz are raising the prospect of a prolonged closure that would choke off exports through the world's most important energy-transport route.
On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck three cargo ships attempting to transit the waterway, the only sea route out of the Persian Gulf. Two foreign tankers carrying fuel oil in Iraqi waters were later set ablaze by projectiles. One crew member was killed and 37 were rescued, an Iraqi official said.
The U.S. has turned down repeated requests for tanker escorts from oil companies, officials from Gulf countries said. Defense officials said it is too risky to send warships into the confined waters of the strait -- which is around 21 miles wide at its narrowest point -- until the risks of Iranian fire have receded.
U.S. forces have hit Iran's navy and its drone and missile crews, in an effort to curb the threat. But Iran is still landing blows. Added to that are the risks of naval mines and Iranian submarines.
With traffic paralyzed as a result, the shutdown of the strait is fast causing a global economic disruption and a major military and political challenge for the Trump administration.
Shippers were bracing for a long shutdown of the waterway, where traffic could take a long time to recover even after the conflict ends.
"It will take time. Not only do we need hostilities to stop, but also shipowners to perceive that the risk to the people on board and to the ships has been materially reduced," said Jerry Kalogiratos. CEO of Athens-based Capital Clean Energy Carriers, which transports liquefied natural gas.
"Think about the Red Sea: Six months after the Houthis stopped the attacks, and traffic has not normalized," he said, referring to Yemen's Iran-backed militants. "It's all about perception of safety. And we are far away from that."
The hit to supplies briefly pushed the price of oil up over $100 a barrel and has raised the cost of gasoline for consumers. It is also squeezing Gulf producers who still depend heavily on oil revenue and forcing difficult decisions to shut down oil fields as crude piles up with nowhere to go.
The chief executive of the Saudi state oil company Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, warned Tuesday that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would cause "catastrophic consequences for the world's oil markets" and seriously disrupt the global economy.
That is what Tehran is counting on, as it struggles to respond militarily to the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign. "9 days into Operation Epic Mistake, oil prices have doubled while all commodities are skyrocketing," Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of Iran posted on X on Monday.
The Revolutionary Guard's intelligence branch sent a mass message to the country's mobile phone users saying its control of the Strait of Hormuz has given Iran the ability to move the global economy.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Bahrain have cut output by nearly seven million barrels of oil a day, people familiar with the matter said.
The strait handled 38% of the world's seaborne crude oil trade in the week before war began, according to a United Nations trade agency. Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. are working to ramp up exports through alternative pipeline routes that bypass the strait. In the Saudi case, it means redirecting crude away from its refineries, tightening the market for refined fuel in the process.
The resulting upward move in prices is becoming a major challenge for the Trump administration, which faces rising domestic concern about fuel prices and inflation.
Under pressure to get the oil moving, President Trump has suggested that the U.S. and its allies would provide warships to escort ships safely through the waterway.
On Tuesday, Trump said, "When the time comes, the U.S. Navy and its partners will escort tankers through the strait if needed." On Wednesday, Trump said ships should use the strait.
White House deputy press secretary Anna Kelly said, "President Trump is fully prepared to provide U.S. Navy escorts through the Strait of Hormuz if he deems it necessary."
Navy officials, however, said they have haven't been told to provide escorts, and doing so would pose enormous risks to both U.S. warships and commercial vessels. One official said the Strait of Hormuz could become an Iranian "kill box" if ships start trying to pass through.
Iran lies along the strait's eastern shore and can threaten ships with its arsenal of drones, antiship cruise missiles and mines. The antiship missiles are mounted on mobile launchers and can be fired from such a close distance that defensive systems don't always detect them until it is too late, an official said.
In the decades since the so-called Tanker War with Iran in the 1980s -- when the U.S. escorted tankers in and out of the Persian Gulf -- Iran has upgraded its arsenal of fast attack boats and unmanned air and water craft.
The U.S. military said it has struck more than 60 Iranian navy ships, but military analysts said Iran retains some of its "mosquito fleet."
An escort operation on the strait would be far more challenging than the most recent operation of its kind, when the U.S. and allies helped protect ships in the Red Sea from the Houthi militants.” [1]
1. Tehran Steps Up Ship Attacks As Strait Closure Reverberates. Malsin, Jared; Said, Summer; Holliday, Shelby. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 12 Mar 2026: A1.
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