Is Iran able and willing to destroy most of the world's energy supply system in the Gulf if Trump will destroy Iran's civil infrastructure?

As of April 2026, amid an escalating conflict following US-Israeli strikes, Iran has demonstrated both the capability and stated intent to severely disrupt global energy supplies in the Persian Gulf if its own critical infrastructure is destroyed.

 

Iran's Capability to Disrupt Energy Supplies (Ability)

 

    Strait of Hormuz Closure: In March 2026, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil supply passes—in response to US/Israeli attacks, halting tanker traffic and driving oil prices to over $120 per barrel.

    Infrastructure Attacks: Iran has demonstrated the ability to hit key Gulf oil infrastructure. Following strikes on its own facilities, Iranian missiles caused significant damage to Ras Laffan, a key energy facility in Qatar, and threatened infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

    Military Assets: Iran uses a combination of drone and missile swarms, groups of fast attack boats, and naval mines to threaten shipping in the Gulf, and most of the world’s energy infrastructure in the Gulf.

 

Iran's Willingness to Retaliate (Willingness)

 

    Retaliation Policy: Iranian officials have stated that if the US and Israel target Iran’s power plants, desalination plants, or other civil infrastructure, Tehran will respond by "irreversibly" destroying energy and infrastructure across the region.

    "Mutual Assured Destruction" Strategy: Iran has adopted a policy of "mutual assured energy destruction," indicating that if its own energy sector is crippled, it will ensure Gulf Arab neighbors and Western interests face equivalent, or greater, damage.

 

Contextual Factors

 

    Trump's Threats: President Donald Trump has threatened to "obliterate" Iran's energy infrastructure and power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened.

    Escalation Risks: Experts warn that attacking Iranian civilian infrastructure would not significantly hinder their military, but would likely cause unprecedented disruption to global energy markets and spark a widespread, uncontrollable crisis in the region, and in the world.