Tehran views the conflict as a victory because the regime survived, enhanced its regional influence, and demonstrated it can disrupt global energy supplies through asymmetric warfare. By using drones and missiles to threaten the Strait of Hormuz and regional oil facilities, Iran has created a powerful deterrent, forcing negotiation terms that could lift sanctions and solidify their control over a vital economic chokepoint.
“When Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire only hours before President Trump had vowed to unleash punishing new attacks, it was in many ways a moment of triumph for the battered regime.
Tehran emerged from 38 days of war against the U.S. and Israel having won not only its primary goal -- its own survival -- but also two potential strategic gains: Control of the Strait of Hormuz and a newly established deterrence against large-scale attacks by its longtime adversaries.
Despite huge military losses, Iran's stranglehold on the vital waterway for 20% of the world's oil exports won't be broken soon.
Tehran's asymmetric tactics were carefully planned to offset U.S. and Israeli military advantages, raising the pressure on Trump to halt the conflict. The cease-fire went into effect without the U.S. and Israel attaining far-reaching goals such as toppling the regime, eliminating Iran's nuclear program and ending its ability to threaten its neighbors.
"What Iran did, systematically and deliberately, was hurt the U.S. economy" by closing down Hormuz and spiking the price of oil globally, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and Iran expert at the Middle East Institute. In response to Trump's effort to bring down the regime, "they made sure the war was felt in the U.S."
For that reason, he added, "I don't think Trump's going to try that again."
The White House said it had halted offensive operations, but Iran's attacks on neighboring Arab states in the Persian Gulf hadn't stopped Wednesday, an indication that the truce still faces obstacles and that it could collapse before taking hold.
Iranian officials were quick to declare victory, insisting in a statement by the country's national-security council that their longtime adversaries had suffered "an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat." Pro-government demonstrators took to the streets after the cease-fire announcement, waving flags and chanting.
Even more telling was Tehran's insistence that it would continue to assert control over Hormuz. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi promised ships "safe passage" through the strait for two weeks during talks with the U.S. on ending the war. But he said vessels could only move "in coordination" with Iranian armed forces and "with due consideration of technical limitations."
If attacks on Iran resumed, it would restart its military operations, Araghchi warned.
The implication: Iran is intent on using its newfound control over the flow of oil from the Persian Gulf as leverage over Trump as the Islamic Republic seeks to rebuild its power after the biggest threat to its survival in decades.
After the killing of Iran's longtime theocratic leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, Iran's new leadership has taken an even more anti-Western stance, with a greater decision-making role for the hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, analysts said.
The war has proved a disaster for Tehran in many respects. Its attacks on Arab countries and restrictions on their oil imports have shattered relations in the region, driving the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf countries that had cultivated ties to Iran closer to the U.S. and even to Israel.
More than five weeks of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes damaged Iran's infrastructure, including its largest petrochemical processing facility. Many of its navy ships were sank and its large missile and drone arsenal was degraded.
On Wednesday, Trump called the cease-fire a win and insisted the U.S. will retrieve Iran's enriched uranium buried under rubble. Iran wouldn't enrich uranium in the future, he said, something Tehran says it will do.
Iran's leaders also have emerged from the war seemingly even more determined to suppress internal opposition. Accused of killing thousands of protesters earlier to put down antigovernment demonstrations, the regime is taking an even harder line against opponents, accusing them of being potential spies.” [1]
1. World News: Why Tehran Thinks It Has Won the War --- The regime survived and appears to have a new strategic prize in the Strait of Hormuz. Cloud, David S. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 09 Apr 2026: A6.
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą