Gulf States Worry Two-Week Truce Left Iran Emboldened, Empowered --- Allies say war's gains are overshadowed by Iran's leverage over Strait of Hormuz

 

 

“DUBAI -- The Iranian government hailed the cease-fire with the U.S. by posting images on social media of President Trump waving the white flag and collapsing on his knees in defeat.

 

The U.S.'s allies and partners in the Middle East fear Tehran might have a point -- and that they will end up paying the price for a war in which the overwhelming military might of the U.S. and Israel failed to secure political gains.

 

Subjected to thousands of Iranian missile and drone strikes since the war's start, the Gulf states are grappling with how to survive next to an emboldened Iran that, as of now, retains control over the Strait of Hormuz.

 

"Iran is the only one that is happy with the outcome. They have now been re-established as the policeman of the Gulf," said Mohammed Baharoon, director-general of the B'huth Dubai Public Policy Research Center, a think tank in the United Arab Emirates. "We woke up to a deal that doesn't reduce the risk, but instead replaces it with a bigger risk."

 

To be sure, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained heavy losses, including much of its leadership, and the two-week cease-fire doesn't mean an end to fighting.

 

Officials in the Middle East believe there is a significant chance the war will flare up again -- possibly with greater intensity. The region's future is slated for discussion by the U.S. and Iran at talks Friday in Islamabad, Pakistan.

 

"It's important to keep things in perspective. This is a temporary two-week cease-fire. This is not a deal," said Hamad Althunayyan, a political analyst and professor at Kuwait University. "We could see an extension of that deadline, but we could also see a return to hostilities."

 

The speed with which Trump went from threatening Tuesday morning that "a whole civilization will die tonight" to accepting Iran's maximalist 10-point demands as a basis for negotiations has left many in the Gulf questioning how hard Washington will push for a deal that achieves its objectives and protects the U.S.'s friends.

 

"Trump has decided to compromise, and with that compromise, he has sidestepped his allies in the Gulf," said Mahdi Ghuloom, a Bahraini researcher at the ORF Middle East think tank.

 

Few in the Gulf approved of Trump's pledge to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure and bomb the country until it reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

 

On Wednesday, there was a sense of relief in Dubai, Doha and Kuwait that these Gulf cities avoided potentially catastrophic Iranian retaliatory strikes on their power plants and water-desalination facilities.

 

Still, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. reported sporadic Iranian missile and drone attacks continuing Wednesday, raising doubts about whether the cease-fire would hold.

 

Separately, fighting continued in Lebanon, where Israel said it is going to pursue its campaign against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia.

 

Gaps remain between the Iranian and U.S. positions, including on the issue of Hormuz, a lifeline for the Gulf where one-fifth of the world's oil and gas once passed.

 

While Trump said Iran agreed to the "complete, immediate and safe opening of the Strait of Hormuz," a statement by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted that passage through the international waterway will remain permissible only in coordination with Iran's military. Iran has been collecting tolls from vessels passing the strait since the war began, a practice it seeks to make permanent to pay for its reconstruction.

 

"The real verdict comes Friday in Islamabad. If Iran walks away retaining any form of control over the Strait of Hormuz, it is an Iranian victory, full stop," said Nadim Koteich, an Emirati analyst and political adviser. "If the world succeeds in stripping Iran from weaponizing Hormuz, the way it was stripped from weaponizing uranium, then this war, whatever its costs, is a strategic defeat for the Islamic Republic."

 

Iran's plan calls for permanent Iranian control over Hormuz, acceptance of Iranian uranium enrichment, the withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from the Middle East, the lifting of sanctions and the payment of compensation to Iran.

 

It doesn't mention any limitations on Iran's missile and drone arsenal, or any curbs on its cooperation with militant groups like Hezbollah or Yemen's Houthis.

 

Gulf leaders haven't publicly criticized Trump's cease-fire decision.

 

Saudi Arabia said freedom of navigation in the Hormuz must be exercised without any restrictions.

 

Iran's triumphalism is misplaced given the toll inflicted on its economy and infrastructure, let alone its military assets, said Saudi analyst and commentator Ali Shihabi.

 

"Iran is heavily degraded, and it is going to need a lot of effort and time rebuilding itself," he said.

 

Yet, Iran has also managed to partially offset the strategic setbacks of the past two years, when Israel weakened its regional proxies and, together with the U.S., carried out successful campaigns against its nuclear and missile programs, said Nikolay Kozhanov, an expert on Iran at the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University.

 

"The rest of the region has now been put in a situation where it doesn't have a choice but to seek a deal with the Iranians," he said.” [1]

 

1. Gulf States Worry Two-Week Truce Left Iran Emboldened, Empowered --- Allies say war's gains are overshadowed by Iran's leverage over Strait of Hormuz. Trofimov, Yaroslav.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 09 Apr 2026: A1.