Battery Giants Hard to Beat.

"Having charged up in their home market, Chinese electric-vehicle-battery firms are becoming major export players. 

The West's efforts to protect its own markets might prove too little, too late.

Chinese firms are weighing factory expansions in Europe, and in U.S. free-trade partners, as a way to sidestep import restrictions -- much like Japanese carmakers did in the U.S. in the 1980s.

Sales of new-energy vehicles, which include plug-in hybrids, surged 37% year over year in China in the first nine months of 2023, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. But exports jumped sharply: China is now the world's top exporter of EVs. And that is helping China's battery industry. Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, and carmaker BYD are the top two producers of EV batteries in the world.

Outside China, Chinese battery manufacturers lag behind South Korean rivals -- the top three have nearly half the market. But if CATL keeps logging growth numbers like it did this year, that could change fast.

LG Energy Solution, the top Korean battery maker, booked ex-China sales that were 60% higher in the first eight months of 2023 than in the same period of 2022, according to SNE Research.

But CATL's overseas sales more than doubled, and its ex-China market share is neck and neck with LG -- both have about 28%. SK On, the No. 2 Korean battery maker, boosted such sales only 16%.

Meanwhile, CATL's market share in Europe has risen to 24% this year, compared with 10% in 2020, according to HSBC. Exports of Teslas with CATL's batteries from its Shanghai factory are one reason. But the battery maker supplies European carmakers like Stellantis. And overseas sales could become more important to Chinese battery makers as domestic competition intensifies.

Chinese battery companies enjoy significantly higher margins abroad, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank expects around 70% of the earnings of Gotion, a Chinese Volkswagen supplier, to come from exports or overseas production by 2025. Its plant in Germany started production this year and it is building a $2 billion factory in Illinois.

Geopolitics are a big risk. The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act mandates that subsidized EVs use batteries with a certain proportion of content from the U.S., or from free-trade partners. The European Union has launched an antisubsidy probe into EV imports from China.

But China's battery industry is trying to sidestep these restrictions. Chinese companies announced overseas investments of more than 200 billion yuan, the equivalent of $27 billion, in batteries and materials, says Goldman. More than 80% of that is in Europe. Hungary is a popular destination. CATL plans to spend the equivalent of $7.7 billion in the country to build what could be the continent's largest battery plant. Hungary is one of the friendlier countries to China in the EU bloc, and offers low labor costs.

Morocco, which has free-trade agreements with the EU and the U.S., is another likely beneficiary. Gotion has signed an agreement with the government to look into setting up a battery plant there with a planned investment of $6.4 billion. China's miner Huayou will build plants there for refining lithium and making cathode materials with Korea's LG Chem.

China's battery race abroad won't be free of potholes, but its battery champions are ready to drive around them.

For the U.S. and especially Europe, that offers pros and cons. In the long run, Chinese battery know-how could filter out into Europeans suppliers and help build a local ecosystem, much like Tesla and Apple helped level up China's EV and smartphone sectors.

In the short run, however, it might mean U.S. or European would-be CATLs struggle to gain much traction." [1]

1. Battery Giants Hard to Beat. Wong, Jacky.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 07 Nov 2023: B.12.

Nauja viršininkų problema: darbuotojai nepasitraukia iš darbo, kaip juos valdyti

   „Baltųjų apykaklių darbo rinka švelnėja tiek, kad įmonės susiduria su problema, kuri būtų buvusi neįsivaizduojama Didžiojo atsistatydinimo eroje.

 

     Šiais laikais per mažai žmonių savo noru palieka darbą.

 

     Kai kurių stambių darbdavių apyvarta sumažėjo taip smarkiai, kad dabar įmonės viršija tam tikrų komandų biudžetą, todėl vadovai turi pasverti, ar atidėti projektus, ar sumažinti papildomų darbuotojų, artėjant metų pabaigai.

 

     Kiti viršininkai nerimauja dėl to, kaip įtraukti į žvaigždes, kai viduje yra daug mažiau laisvų darbo vietų, todėl sunkiau perkelti žmones į naujus vaidmenis.

 

     Kai kurios bendrovės teigė, kad šiais metais iš darbo išeina mažiau darbuotojų. Vadovų teigimu, kai kuriais atvejais apyvarta grįžta į priešpandeminį lygį po ilgus metus trukusių perversmų darbo rinkoje.

 

     „Neabejotina, kad nusidėvėjimo lygis mažėja“, – sakė Denisas Machuelis, pasaulinės personalo įdarbinimo įmonės „Adecco Group“, dirbančios su dideliais darbdaviais, vadovas. „Žmonės mano, kad lauke, tikriausiai, šiek tiek šalta, nes makroekonomika nėra tokia gera."

 

     Ir taikant šią tipinę schemą „paskutinysis atėjo, pirmas išeina“, labiau tikėtina, kad jie liks dabartiniame vaidmenyje.

 

     Atrodytų, kad išejimo iš darbo sumažėjęs noras gerai viršininkams, kurie ilgus metus gailėjosi dėl didelės darbuotojų apykaitos ir sparčiai didėjančių atlyginimų. Tačiau kai kurie vadovai teigė, kad juos nustebino, kaip greitai pasikeitė darbo rinkos dinamika, sukeldama naujų iššūkių.

 

    JAV Darbo departamento duomenimis, spalį įdarbinimas smarkiai sulėtėjo, o JAV darbdaviai pridėjo perpus mažiau darbo vietų, nei rugsėjį. Nedarbo lygis pakilo iki 3,9% nuo 3,8%, bet vis dar svyruoja netoli istorinių žemumų.

 

     „Morgan Stanley“ pastaraisiais mėnesiais buvo atleista iš dalies dėl mažo 80 000 žmonių Volstryto įmonės išstojimo, sakė generalinis direktorius Jamesas Gormanas, per pokalbį su investuotojais spalio viduryje.

 

     „Tikrai aukštos kokybės atlikėjų paklausa čia didelė, bet iš tikrųjų susidūrėme su priešinga problema“, – sakė Gormanas. „Mūsų nusidėvėjimas buvo labai mažas, todėl ėmėmės kai kurių išlaidų iniciatyvų."

 

     „Wells Fargo“ vyriausiasis finansų direktorius Mike'as Santomassimo šią vasarą investuotojams sakė, kad bendrovėje buvoapykaita vyksta lėčiau, nei tikėtasi, ir kad bankas planuoja įrašyti didesnes išeitines išlaidas, kad sumažintų darbuotojų skaičių. Spalio viduryje jis pakartojo šią žinią, sakydamas investuotojams, kad bendrovė tiki, kad jai dar reikia atleisti iš daugiau darbo vietų, nes nusidėvėjimas išliko nedidelis, todėl kitais metais, greičiausiai, atsiras papildomų išeitinių išlaidų.

 

     Pitney Bowes įmonėje, kur nusidėvėjimo rodiklis šiais metais taip pat sumažėjo, siuntimo paslaugų įmonė kelis kartus pasamdė stažuotoją, tikėdamasi, kad įmonėje atsiras laisvos darbo vietos, tik netikėtai esamam darbuotojui liekant jo pozicijoje. Stamfordo (Conn.) bendrovė rado kitų vietų praktikantams ir paprastai valdė mažesnę apyvartą, sakė Andrew Goldas, bendrovės, kurioje 2022 m. pabaigoje dirbo 11 000 darbuotojų, vyriausiasis žmogiškųjų išteklių pareigūnas.

 

     Darbdaviai stengiasi tiksliai numatyti, kiek darbuotojų išeis iš darbo tam tikrais metais, kad padėtų nustatyti komandų biudžetus ir sudaryti įdarbinimo planus. Programinės įrangos tiekėjas ServiceNow naudoja mašininio mokymosi modelį, kad numatytų darbuotojų, kurie pasitrauks kiekvieną ketvirtį, skaičių. Savanoriška apyvarta šiais metais nukrito žemiau tų modelių prognozuojamo lygio, sakė Sarah Tilley, vyresnioji pasaulinių talentų viceprezidentė. Ji nenurodė konkrečių skaičių, tačiau 2023 m. geriausiai dirbančių darbuotojų nusidėvėjimas yra mažesnis, nei pusė 2022 m.

 

     Darbo departamento rodiklis rugsėjį trečią mėnesį iš eilės išliko 2,3 proc., o 2022 m. balandžio mėn. buvo pasiektas aukščiausias rodiklis – 3 proc. sakė trečiadienį. Pandemijos metu išėjimo iš darbo lygis pasiekė rekordą, nes sumažėjo COVID-19 karantinas, o darbuotojai ieškojo geresnių atlyginimų ar darbo sąlygų, todėl atsirado reiškinys, plačiai žinomas kaip Didysis atsistatydinimas.

 

     Darbuotojų apklausose daugelis rodo naujai atrastą įsipareigojimą savo dabartiniams darbdaviams. Remiantis „Adecco“ spalį paskelbta apklausa, šiais metais 73% darbuotojų teigė, kad planuoja likti savo darbe, o pernai – 61%.

 

     Tam tikras darbuotojų judėjimas įmonėje yra sveikas ir būtinas, sakė Purvi Tailor, JAV „Ferring Pharmaceuticals“ žmogiškųjų išteklių viceprezidentas.

 

     Apyvarta sukuria aukšto lygio darbuotojų paaukštinimo galimybes ir leidžia darbdaviams pritraukti naujų darbuotojų, turinčių naujų perspektyvų arba reikiamų įgūdžių.

 

     Jei viršininkai nori atsikratyti darbuotojų, jie paprastai gali juos atleisti, tačiau atleidimai gali pakenkti moralei. Mažos kaitos laikotarpiais personalo lyderiai veteranai teigė, kad paprastai vadovaujasi kitokiu planu, prieš imdamiesi didesnio darbo vietų mažinimo. Kai išeina per mažai darbuotojų, labiau kritiškai vertina jų veiklą,  todėl darbuotojai bus priversti išeiti iš darbo. Pinigai gali būti kita alternatyva. Mažo nusidėvėjimo laikotarpiais įmonės linkusios siūlyti paskatas, pvz., išpirkimus, siekdamos motyvuoti darbuotojus išeiti.

 

     Sausio mėnesį „Bank of America“ investuotojams pranešė, kad šiais metais planuoja sumažinti darbuotojų skaičių lėtesniu samdymu ir atleidimu. Tačiau vadovų teigimu, ši užduotis tapo sudėtingesnė, nes banką paliko mažiau darbuotojų.

 

     „Per 2023 m. pastebėjome, kad nuo 2022 m. Didžiojo pasitraukimo iš 2022 m. mūsų įmonė pasiekė rekordiškai mažą nusidėvėjimo lygį“, – praėjusį mėnesį investuotojams sakė generalinis direktorius Brianas Moynihanas. „Visa tai reiškė, kad komanda turėjo daugiau dirbti, kad sutvarkytų galvų skaičių."

 

     Nuo sausio „Bank of America“ darbuotojų skaičius sumažėjo maždaug 6 000 visą darbo dieną dirbančių darbuotojų iki maždaug 213 000 žmonių.

 

     Morgan Stanley Gorman investuotojams sakė, kad apyvartos trūkumas yra įmonės kultūros ir jos stabilumo atspindys. „Manau, kad turėtume jaustis pamaloninti“, – sakė jis ir greitai pridūrė: „Platesnė žinia yra ta, kad nusidėvėjimas buvo nepaprastai mažas, ir tai yra kažkas, ką mes ką tik turime išgyventi.“ [1]

 

1. Bosses' New Problem: Employees Won't Quit. Cutter, Chip.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 07 Nov 2023: A.1.

Bosses' New Problem: Employees Won't Quit, How Do You Manage Them

"The white-collar labor market is softening to a point that companies are encountering an issue that would have been unthinkable in the era known as the Great Resignation.

These days, too few people are voluntarily leaving their jobs.

Turnover has declined so steeply at some large employers that companies now find themselves over budget on certain teams, requiring leaders to weigh whether to postpone projects or to cut additional staff as the end of year approaches. 

Other bosses worry about how to keep star employees engaged when there are far fewer vacant positions internally, making it harder to move people into new roles.

Some companies said they have seen fewer employees leave their jobs this year. In some cases, executives said, turnover is returning to prepandemic levels following years of upheaval in the labor market.

"The attrition level is going down, that's for sure," said Denis Machuel, chief executive of global staffing firm Adecco Group, which works with large employers. "People feel it's probably a bit cold outside with the macroeconomics not being so good. 

And with this last-in, first-out typical scheme, they're more likely to stay in their current role."

The decline in quitting would seem like a welcome development for bosses who spent years bemoaning high levels of job hopping and rapidly rising salaries. But some executives said they have been caught by surprise at how quickly the labor-market dynamics flipped, posing new challenges.

Hiring slowed sharply in October, with U.S. employers adding half as many jobs as they did in September, according to the Labor Department. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% from 3.8%, but is still hovering near historic lows.

Morgan Stanley had layoffs in recent months in part because of low attrition within the 80,000-person Wall Street firm, CEO James Gorman said on a call with investors in mid-October.

"Really high performers are in demand across the Street, but we've actually had the opposite issue," Gorman said. "We've had very low attrition, which is why we did some of the expense initiatives."

Wells Fargo's Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo told investors this summer that attrition has been slower than expected at the company and that the bank planned to record higher severance expenses to reduce its head count. He reiterated the message in mid-October, telling investors that the company believed it still had more jobs to cut, as attrition has remained low, which will likely result in additional severance costs next year.

At Pitney Bowes, where the attrition rate also is down in the year to date, the shipping and mailing services company has had a few instances in which it hired an intern, expecting a vacancy to open in the company, only for the existing employee to remain in the position. The Stamford, Conn., company found other spots for the interns and has generally managed the lower turnover rate, said Andrew Gold, chief human resources officer at the company, which had 11,000 employees at the end of 2022.

Employers try to accurately predict how many staffers will quit in a given year to help set budgets for teams and establish hiring plans. Software provider ServiceNow uses a machine-learning model to anticipate the number of employees that will step down each quarter. Voluntary turnover this year has fallen below levels forecast by those models, said Sarah Tilley, senior vice president of global talent. She didn't cite specific figures, but attrition among top-performing employees in 2023 is less than half of what it was in 2022.

Nationally, what is called the quits rate -- the number of resignations as a share of total employment -- remained at 2.3% in September for the third month in a row, down from a peak of 3% in April 2022, the Labor Department said Wednesday. The level of quitting hit a record during the pandemic as Covid-19 lockdowns eased and workers sought out better pay or working conditions, leading to a phenomenon that became widely known as the Great Resignation.

In surveys of workers, many show a newfound commitment to their current employers. This year, 73% of workers said they planned to stay at their jobs, up from 61% last year, according to a survey released in October by Adecco.

Some movement among employees at a company is healthy and necessary, said Purvi Tailor, U.S. vice president of human resources at Ferring Pharmaceuticals. 

Turnover creates promotion opportunities for high-performing employees and allows employers to bring in new staffers with fresh perspectives or in-demand skills.

If bosses want to get rid of employees, they can generally fire them, but layoffs can harm morale. In periods of low turnover, veteran HR leaders said they typically follow a different playbook before resorting to broader job cuts. When too few employees leave, companies will often get tougher in performance appraisals, pushing employees to quit. Cash can be another alternative. During periods of low attrition, companies tend to offer incentives, such as buyouts, to motivate employees to leave.

Bank of America told investors in January that it planned to cut its head count this year through slower hiring and attrition. But that task became more challenging, executives said, as fewer employees left the bank.

"Over the course of 2023, we've seen moving from 2022's Great Resignation to a current level of a record low attrition in our company," CEO Brian Moynihan told investors last month. "All that meant the team had to work harder to manage that head count down."

Since January, Bank of America's workforce has shrunk by about 6,000 full-time employees, to roughly 213,000 people.

Morgan Stanley's Gorman told investors that he saw the lack of turnover as a reflection of the firm's culture and its stability. "I guess we should feel flattered," he said, before quickly adding: "The broader message is attrition has been remarkably low, and that's something that we've just got to work through."" [1]

1. Bosses' New Problem: Employees Won't Quit. Cutter, Chip.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 07 Nov 2023: A.1.

The EU Wants to Counter the USA and China with Green Technologies.

"Wind turbines, solar systems, heat pumps: The EU Commission wants more domestic production. For the EU Parliament, this doesn't go far enough.

 

It is intended to be the EU's response to the billions in aid from China and the USA for "green technologies": The "Net Zero Industry Act" is intended to shorten approval times for projects, exclude China from public tenders for such technologies and create the conditions for state aid.

 

The European Commission wants to ensure that at least 40 percent of the wind and solar systems, batteries and heat pumps or electrolysers and biogas plants installed annually come from domestic production in 2030.

 

Recently, the leading industrial committee in the European Parliament voted on the law and further tightened the industrial policy goals. MEPs are demanding that the EU not only concentrate on domestic supply, but also achieve a 25 percent share of the global market for the technologies covered.

 

Unlike the Commission, they include the entire supply chain, from raw materials to intermediate products. In addition, the Industry Committee has lowered the threshold beyond which dependence on a country is considered too great.

 

If more than half of the demand comes from one country, instead of the 65 percent proposed by the Commission, companies from these countries should be excluded from public tenders.

 

Regardless of this, they want to link the award more closely to criteria other than price, such as how sustainably products were manufactured.

 

More “green” technologies

 

The MPs have significantly expanded the list of technologies that fall under the “Net Zero Industry Act”. This applies in particular to nuclear power, but also sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), infrastructure for hydrogen and technologies for energy-intensive industries or recycling. The list should also be revised regularly by the Commission.

 

This met with criticism from the Greens. In the end they voted against the compromise put forward by the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats and Liberals. "The committee has removed the concept of strategic technology and expanded the list of net zero technologies so that, in effect, the door to strategic projects is opened to almost any technology," said Green MEP Henrike Hahn. Successful green, competitive industrial policy requires a clear focus on strategically important technologies and not watering can funding. The rapporteur in the European Parliament responsible for the dossier, Christian Ehler (CDU), described the law as a "highly political blueprint for the necessary industrial policy agenda for the next legislative period." In order for the industry to get back on its feet, the EU needs more European measures.

 

Financing also through income from emissions trading

 

In order to achieve the goals, the MEPs are relying on even shorter approval procedures than planned by the EU Commission. The authorities should give the green light for “regular projects” after nine to twelve months. Six to nine months are planned for “strategically important projects”. What is new is the idea of creating “Net Zero Industry Valleys” in which the member states should carry out the environmental assessment themselves in order to further speed up the approval process.

 

The MPs also want to use the income from auctioning certificates from emissions trading to finance this. The states should reserve at least 25 percent for this. In addition to subsidies from the member states, the expansion is also intended to be supported by the “platform for strategic technologies” called STEP and, in the medium term, by a sovereignty fund.

 

The plenary session is scheduled to vote on the law at the end of November. Given the large majority in the committee, this should be a formality. Before the law can come into force, Parliament must negotiate a common position with the Council of Ministers. Its vote is still pending. There, too, there is discussion about expanding the list of technologies and including nuclear power." [1]

 

The animals had many beautiful wishes, but none of them wanted to work. The European Parliament wants to capture a quarter of the world's energy market. Amazing.

 

1. So will die EU die USA und China mit grünen Technologien auskontern. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online) Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Oct 25, 2023. Von Hendrik Kafsack