U.S.'s Climate Plan Falters Amid Hurdles and Resistance

"Climate optimism is fading. Higher costs, pushback from businesses and consumers, and the slow rollout of technology are delaying the transition from fossil fuels.

Renewable energy is growing faster than expected. But surging demand for power is sucking up much of that additional capacity and forcing utilities to burn fossil fuels, including coal, for longer than expected.

With greenhouse-gas emissions continuing at record levels, scientists expect floods and heat waves to get worse. This year is on track to be the hottest on record.

"The pace of our response is obviously totally insufficient," said Sonia Seneviratne, a climate scientist at Swiss university ETH Zurich. On this trajectory, "it will become increasingly impossible to face the changing climate we are going to experience," she said.

The energy transition gained momentum in recent years as prices for renewable energy tumbled. Trillions of dollars in government and private investment flowed into technologies to address greenhouse-gas emissions. Industries such as autos embraced major shifts in their businesses, and companies started to count and disclose their emissions.

That momentum stalled recently when costs soared, consumers balked and businesses fought against new regulations. Politicians stepped back from ambitious climate goals or campaigned against them. A victory by GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump in November's election could make those goals even harder to reach. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrats' presidential nominee, is expected to continue President Biden's climate policies if she wins.

"We have this really difficult moment," said Danny Cullenward, a senior fellow at the University of Pennsylvania's Kleinman Center for Energy Policy. "The election is a giant cliff."

The bumps aren't surprising. The energy transition was always going to be a huge, complicated and expensive effort. It has never moved fast enough to minimize the damage of climate change. 

But positive momentum, spurred in part by the 2022 U.S. climate law, created hope that the shift could accelerate.

This week, businesses, climate activists and government officials are converging on New York for the United Nations General Assembly and related climate events dubbed "Climate Week NYC."

Overshadowing the gathering is a surge in electricity demand. The U.S. power sector had been a bright spot. Emissions have declined as natural gas and renewables supplanted coal. But new data centers and factories are halting progress. A shift to electric vehicles and appliances could lead to a bigger crunch.

"We really are going to need just about every resource that's available if demand growth continues at a rapid pace," said Paul Segal, chief executive of LS Power, which operates natural-gas and renewable projects across the country. Research firm Rhodium Group expects U.S. electricity demand to rise 24% to 29% by 2035, nearly twice the rate it projected a year ago.

LS revived the expansion of a gas plant in Ohio after halting it five years ago when power demand was muted and state subsidies unfavorable. It recently raised nearly $4 billion for its natural-gas portfolio.

New York state's aggressive goal of getting 70% of its electricity from renewables by 2030 has been upended by permit delays, rising costs and the cancellation of several early offshore-wind projects.

"The goals are still worthy, but we have to think about the collateral damage of all of our major decisions," New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, said at a recent event.

More than 40% of the world's electricity came from low-carbon sources in 2023, with wind and solar comprising more than 90% of new capacity, according to BloombergNEF. Six years ago, electric vehicles made up 2% of new car sales globally. About 1 in 5 new cars is now electric.

But the gains are uneven. China accounted for more than one-third of all wind and solar output last year and is by far the largest EV market. The spread of EVs has slowed in the U.S. and Europe.

In some sectors, things have gotten worse. Investment in improving the efficiency of buildings -- a major driver of emissions -- fell last year, the International Energy Agency says.

Spending decisions happening now can lock in emissions for decades.

Multibillion-dollar liquefied-natural-gas terminals being built in Texas and Louisiana could serve a projected demand boom in places such as Southeast Asia.

Wind and solar are growing rapidly in that region but are limited by the grid and other factors, said Nitin Apte, CEO of Vena Energy, a renewables developer. "It's like we're running really, really hard, and we're still running in place," Apte said.

Sticking with fossil fuels risks worsening countries' vulnerability to climate change. The Philippines -- which plans to use more gas and renewables -- is frequently hit by floods and cyclones and suffers the most weather-related losses of any country as a share of gross domestic product, according to reinsurance firm Swiss Re.

A truism about climate policy is that many people and businesses are unwilling to make real sacrifices to address the problem. The Biden administration's climate law focused on carrots, not sticks, for that reason. (And the Biden administration distributed those carrots to people who can only gnaw on them, but cannot do anything good in business - to their favored companies and unions. (K.))

The backlash has been harsh in the U.S. and Europe when policies are deemed too aggressive.

In Washington state, a vote to repeal a program that since 2023 has required many companies to buy emissions permits is on the ballot in November. The measure is being pushed by a hedge fund executive who has said the program raises gas prices. The state said it would lose $3.8 billion if the repeal passes.

"We're playing defense on some of the biggest wins that we've ever had," said green-transportation campaigner Kirk Hovenkotter.

Climate policy also has gotten wrapped up in trade politics. China controls swaths of the green-energy and materials supply chains. 

The U.S. showed it is willing to sacrifice climate action to build its own supply chains when the Biden administration put a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs.

A Trump victory in November would likely squeeze federal climate spending, threatening Biden's agenda. The package of tax credits and other funding announced in 2022's Inflation Reduction Act was a landmark, but some tax-credit rules still aren't completed and money is flowing slower than expected.

Faced with farmers blocking roads and spraying manure, the European Union dropped this year a proposed agricultural-emissions target from its new climate goal and relaxed green regulations in farming subsidies.

Pro-environment parties that helped pass various climate laws suffered losses in recent EU elections.

Many companies are weakening their climate plans. Sustainability fell down CEOs' list of concerns in 2023, behind issues including inflation and artificial intelligence, according to an analysis of survey data by consulting firm Bain.

Ford Motor and General Motors are among the automakers dialing back their plans for new electric models amid flagging demand. Volvo Car recently abandoned a target to sell only fully electric cars by the end of the decade.

Mining giant Glencore was under pressure from shareholders to sell its coal business. They reversed course and encouraged the company to keep the unit, citing waning momentum in sustainable investing.

New green technologies are the best hope for significant progress in reducing emissions, experts said, and cash is pouring into promising startups.

Recent investments include $645 million for Twelve, which makes low-carbon aviation fuel, and a $1.56 billion government loan commitment to an ammonia producer that plans to capture its carbon emissions. 

Ammonia is a key ingredient in fertilizer and doesn't emit carbon when burned as fuel.

Some startups are facing surging costs. Even when things go smoothly, the pressure is on to make a dent in emissions.

Form Energy, a maker of iron-based batteries that can discharge electricity for days -- a boon for intermittent renewables -- recently opened a factory in West Virginia. It has orders from utilities and plans to expand its manufacturing capacity in the next few years.

"Even that -- which is a massively successful business, assuming we get there -- is a tiny drop in the bucket," Form CEO Mateo Jaramillo said."

Biden-Harris administration is lying twice in an attempt to kill competitors. Lying about climate goals, and using big green subsidies  Biden-Harris administration killed Western European industry.  Lying about security and support for workers Biden-Harris administration neglected climate goals and tried to kill China's industry. Global South didn't  stop buying Chinese products so this move didn't work.

Trump will not lie here. If Americans don't care about climate, he is saying exactly that.

1.  U.S.'s Climate Plan Falters Amid Hurdles and Resistance. Ballard, Ed; Ramkumar, Amrith.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 24 Sep 2024: A.1.

Ar Vokietija vis dar yra inžinierių šalis?

 

 

 „Pagaminta Vokietijoje“ turi legendinę reputaciją, tačiau jai gresia išblukti, nes už jos stovintys technikai ir išradėjai vis retėja.

 

 Poetų ir mąstytojų, išradėjų ir inžinierių šalyje inžinieriai šiuo metu turėtų būti geriausioje padėtyje. Nieko daugiau už juos nereikia, sakoma toli už interesų grupių, tokių, kaip Vokietijos inžinierių asociacija (VDI). 

 

Kiekvienas pakankamai informuotas žmogus gali mintinai perskaityti mūsų laikų iššūkius: energijos ir mobilumo perėjimą, skaitmenizaciją ir dirbtinį intelektą, sunykusią infrastruktūrą, klimato kaitą. Visose srityse, kuriose reikia inžinierių – labiau, nei bet kada anksčiau. 

 

Nors „Made in Germany“ anksčiau reiškė vokiečių inžineriją, šiandien „German Engineering“ vis dar yra pasaulinis kokybės ženklas, apibendrinantis Vokietijos ekonominę galią ir inovacijų stiprybę. Tačiau abejonių daugėja: Vokietija vis labiau praranda savo technologijų pionieriaus vaidmenį, beveik pasigedo skaitmenizacijos ir laikosi technologijų, kurios nebeturi ateities, teigia jie.

 

 VDI apklausa parodė, kad kiek daugiau, nei pusė vokiečių savo šalį laiko daugiau ar mažiau konkurencinga. Aiškus nepasitikėjimas – taip pat vokiečių inžinieriais. Ir tai nepaisant to, kad beveik 98 procentai vokiečių vis dar mano, kad techninės naujovės yra būtinos Vokietijos ekonominei sėkmei. Daugiausia dėmesio skiriama vis dar įspūdingai kohortai: 2022 m. inžinerijos dalykų buvo daugiau, nei 100 000 laipsnių. Tačiau pastaruoju metu skaičiai sustingo, nors inžinierių paklausa niekada nebuvo didesnė, o atskirų pagrindinių dalykų mažėjimas stebina.

 

 Geriausias reputacijos smukimo pavyzdys yra automobilių pramonė, kadaise buvusi Vokietijos ekonomikos pasididžiavimas ir pradininkė. Kiek daugiau, nei pusė vokiečių netiki, kad po dešimties ar penkiolikos metų iš Vokietijos atkeliaus geriausi automobiliai. Tai ne tik VDI mano, kad tai „nerimą keliantis signalas“. Yra ir kitų: vadinamoji baterijų elementų giga gamykla dabar laikoma Kinijos domenu. To, ką gali pasiekti tokia valstybės remiama įmonė, kaip CATL, negali pasiekti Vokietijos įmonė; Be to, atominės energetikos palaipsniui atsisakoma, o infrastruktūra tarsi griūva – tad akivaizdu, kad ir techninė ekspertizė griūva.

 

 Juolab, kad atrodo, kad Vokietijos mokyklose, kur liūdnai pagarsėjusios matematikos silpnybės vis nukeliauja į naujas antraštes, vilties pagrindo mažai. Neseniai buvo kalbama, kad beveik trečdaliui penkiolikmečių šioje šalyje nepavyksta atlikti net nesudėtingų užduočių. Kaip jie turėtų tapti gerais inžinieriais? Ir tai nepaisant to, kad Vokietijoje vis dar yra universitetų, kurie turi aukštą tarptautinę reputaciją, o pajamų galimybes lengva palyginti su kitais sektoriais.

 

 Frankas Ferchau, įmonės „Ferchau GmbH“ iš Gummersbacho – vienos didžiausių Vokietijos inžinerinių paslaugų teikėjų, kuriose dirba apie 9 000 darbuotojų – generalinis direktorius ir partneris, Vokietijoje mato kultūrinę kliūtį: didelis matematikos trūkumas Vokietijoje laikomas perpus blogesniu, netgi labai simpatišku. o kompiuterių mokslininkai, bet ir visi inžinieriai būtų atmesti, kaip atitrūkę nuo realybės. Ne visai ideali aplinka trokštantiems inžinieriams. Tuo pat metu Ferchau sako: „Mums reikia daugiau jaunų inžinierių visose srityse ir visose vietose“. Tai patvirtina pažvelgus į laisvas darbo vietas šioje šalyje.

 

 Tačiau vietoj to trūkumas pasiekė daugelį universitetų. Šiek tiek daugiau, nei prieš dešimt metų daugelis iš jų patyrė tarpinį aukštą naujų studentų skaičių dėl Bundesvero reformos ir dvigubų mokslo metų iš G8 ir G9: Tačiau dabar MINT dalykai – matematika, informatika, gamtos mokslai, technologijos – vargu ar patrauklios. Universitete vis dar pakankamai žmonių. Darmštato technikos universitetas yra tik vienas iš daugelio, pastebėjusių, kad jaunimą pasiekti tampa vis sunkiau. Hesene elektros inžinerija pirmakursių populiarumo skalėje yra paskutinėje vietoje, o matematika ir mechanikos inžinerija įstrigo viduryje. Yra daug kursų, ypač moterims, kurie yra patrauklesni, nei tie, kurie turi inžinerijos laipsnį. Visi sutinka, kad pasiūlos atotrūkis netaps mažesnis, nebent pagaliau bus įdarbinta daugiau moterų.

 

 Elektros inžinerijos, elektronikos ir informacinių technologijų asociacija (VDE) nustatė, kad Vokietijoje Elektros inžinerijos studijas pernai baigė tik 7500 absolventų, o per ateinančius kelerius metus jų skaičius, tikėtina, ir toliau mažės – tuo tarpu vien šioje šalyje reikia 20 000 absolventų, kad būtų panaikintas kvalifikuotų elektrotechnikos darbuotojų trūkumas. Mažai guodžia, kad problemų turi ir kitos šalys. 

 

Kai Vokietijos įmonės, dažnai viliojamos dosniomis subsidijomis, Amerikoje įkuria savo gamybos patalpas, jos dažnai neranda pakankamai kvalifikuotų darbuotojų. Visų pirma, inžinierių trūksta klasikiniuose dalykuose, tokiuose, kaip mechanikos inžinerija ar elektrotechnika. Amerika yra pagrįsta programine įranga, tačiau kompiuterių moksle viskas yra kitaip.

 

 Permainos vis labiau populiarėja ir Vokietijoje. Sutariama, kad kompiuterių mokslo svarba ir toliau didės, o transmisijos ar variklio konstrukcija neturi didelės ateities drebančioje automobilių pramonėje. 

 

Didžiausia pridėtinė vertė mašinose jau slypi jų valdyme, o ne pačiuose įrenginiuose – inžinieriams tai atsisveikinimas su dešimtmečius trukusiais įpročiais. 

 

Bet kuriuo atveju klasikinė inžinerinė veikla nebegali funkcionuoti be tarpdisciplininio supratimo. Frankas Ferchau netiki, kad Vokietija dabar yra technologijoms priešiška šalis. Tačiau jis sako tai, ką sako daugelis inžinierių: Deja, Vokietija nebėra ypatinga, kai kalbama apie technologines žinias – ir jau greitai kels pavojų jos „Made in Germany“ patvirtinimo antspaudui.” [1]

1. Ist Deutschland noch das Land der Ingenieure? Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online) Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Jul 28, 2024.

Is Germany still the country of engineers?

 

"Made in Germany" has a legendary reputation, but it is in danger of fading. Because the technicians and inventors behind it are becoming rare.

 

In the country of poets and thinkers, inventors and engineers, engineers should actually be in the best position at the moment. No one is needed more than them, it is said far beyond interest groups such as the Association of German Engineers (VDI). 

 

Because any reasonably well-informed person can recite the challenges of our time by heart: energy and mobility transition, digitization and artificial intelligence, dilapidated infrastructure, climate change. All fields in which engineers are needed - more than ever before. 

 

"Made in Germany" used to stand for German engineering, Today, "German Engineering" is still a global seal of quality that sums up Germany's economic strength and innovative power. 

 

However, doubts are growing: Germany has increasingly lost its technological pioneering role, has practically missed the boat on digitization and is clinging to technologies that no longer have a future, it is said.

 

A VDI survey found that only just over half of Germans consider their country to be more or less competitive. A clear vote of no confidence - also in German engineers. And this despite the fact that almost 98 percent of Germans still consider technical innovations to be essential for Germany's economic success. The focus is on a still impressive cohort: there were more than 100,000 degrees in engineering subjects in 2022. However, the numbers have recently stagnated, although demand for engineers is higher than ever and the decline in individual key subjects is blatant.

 

The best example of the decline in reputation is the automotive industry, once the unconditional pride and pioneer of the German economy. A little more than half of Germans do not believe that the best cars will still come from Germany in ten or fifteen years. This is an "alarming signal" and not just the VDI. There are others: a so-called gigafactory for battery cells is now considered a Chinese domain. What a state-supported company like CATL can set up cannot be achieved by a German company; in addition, nuclear power is being phased out and the infrastructure seems to be crumbling - so it is obvious that technical expertise is also eroding.

 

Especially since there seems to be little cause for hope in German schools, where the notorious weaknesses in mathematics are constantly making headlines. Most recently, it was said that almost a third of fifteen-year-olds in this country failed even simple tasks. How are they supposed to become good engineers? And this despite the fact that there are still universities in Germany that enjoy a high international reputation and the income opportunities easily compare with other industries.

 

Frank Ferchau, managing director and shareholder of Ferchau GmbH from Gummersbach - one of the largest German engineering service providers with around 9,000 employees - sees a cultural handicap in Germany: A major weakness in maths is not considered so bad in Germany, even sympathetic, while computer scientists and engineers in general are dismissed as being out of touch with the world. Not exactly an ideal environment for aspiring engineers. At the same time, Ferchau says: "We need more young engineers, in all areas and in all places." A look at the vacancies in this country confirms this.

 

But instead, the shortage has reached many universities. Although many of them experienced a temporary peak in the number of new students just over ten years ago due to the Bundeswehr reform and double years of G8 and G9 at high schools, MINT subjects - mathematics, computer science, natural sciences, technology - are now barely attracting enough people to the campus. The Technical University of Darmstadt is just one of many that has found that it is becoming increasingly difficult to reach young people. In Hesse, electrical engineering is at the bottom of the popularity scale for first-year students, while mathematics and mechanical engineering are stuck in the middle. For women in particular, there are many courses that are more appealing than those with an engineering degree. Everyone agrees that the gap in the range of courses will not become smaller unless more women are finally recruited.

 

The Association for Electrical, Electronic and Information Technologies (VDE) has determined that in Germany, last year there were just 7,500 graduates in electrical engineering and the number is likely to continue to fall in the coming years - while in this country alone 20,000 graduates are needed to counteract the shortage of skilled workers in electrical engineering. It is little consolation that other countries are also having problems. 

 

When German companies - often attracted by generous subsidies - set up their own production in America, they often cannot find enough qualified staff. Above all, there is a lack of engineers in traditional subjects such as mechanical engineering or electrical engineering. America is software-driven, but things are different in IT.

 

The shift is also becoming more and more apparent in Germany. There is a consensus that IT will continue to grow in importance, while gearbox or engine construction does not have much of a future in the shaken auto industry. 

 

Even now, the greatest added value in machines lies in their control and not in the devices themselves - for engineers it is a departure from decades of habits. 

 

In any case, traditional engineering activities can no longer function without interdisciplinary understanding. Frank Ferchau does not believe that Germany has become a technology-hostile country. But he says what many engineers say: Germany is unfortunately no longer special when it comes to technological expertise - and is well on its way to jeopardizing its "Made in Germany" seal of quality." [1]

 

1. Ist Deutschland noch das Land der Ingenieure? Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online) Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Jul 28, 2024.