Trump Is a Realist on Greenland and Ukraine

"If you believe national figures owe it to the country to speak in scripted and uninteresting ways, Donald Trump is already a big disappointment. You also know where to point the finger: Joe Biden did everything right if his goal was to restore Mr. Trump to office.

But it's easier to make sense of Mr. Trump's rhetorical gambits, including threatening to control Panama and Greenland by force, than you might think.

-- Razzle-dazzle. He inherits an economy rolling along fine, no pressing crisis and a burst of financial-market confidence now that Obama-Biden-style aggression against the private sector is in the rearview mirror.

Mr. Trump's unambiguous and nettlesome promise was to solve the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours. He may yet deliver a deal but it won't be a glorious one. It will open new avenues of risk and controversy as Mr. Trump tries to hand over to the unwilling Europeans the job of arming Ukraine and deterring Russia.

Also in the cards: an early Beijing provocation in the South China Sea, aimed just below Mr. Trump's threshold of irritability, to further erode U.S. deterrence in the region. In enlarging the geopolitical playing field to include areas where the U.S. is more advantageously placed, Mr. Trump not only distracts, he reminds us the playing field is bigger and more favorable than we might have remembered.

-- Stating the obvious. He's saying what more decorous and perhaps wiser presidents don't feel the need to emphasize. The U.S. stands ready to exert control over the Panama Canal in any conflict with China. It stands ready, in one fashion or another, to assert control over Greenland to protect vital communications between the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. already has large forces based in Europe. They need to be supported. Also Greenland contains rare minerals that aren't really rare: China's power comes from controlling the processing, which it uses to favor sourcing that it also controls. The underpopulated Danish territory is one of the West's best opportunities to flip this table.

-- Ugly realism. In the early days of events in Ukraine, Trump ally Mike Pompeo urged military support of Ukraine but also said if Russia prevails "we'll live in that world." If Taiwan succumbs to political or military pressure from China, the U.S. will live in that world too.

If Mr. Trump sometimes seems readily resigned to this version of the future, more pessimistic in line with his dog-eat-dog view of human nature, we were clearly anyway entering a period of geopolitical tumult. The world may be sliding toward a new era of armed and antagonistic regional blocs. It would be premature to assume so and also foolish not to consider the possibility.

But there's an upbeat scenario too. Mr. Trump's pessimism isn't as radical as it seems. If he sees a chance of success, he's actually quite ready to be swayed by, and ultimately eager for the favor of, conventional foreign-policy types who believe Ukraine and Taiwan should be upheld, who believe global alliances should be strengthened to protect an open global trading system. That's why he keeps demanding Europe up its defense spending. NATO was on a path to snuff itself out without Mr. Trump's help if it remained an alliance in which only one ally -- the U.S. -- was capable of deploying force in the common defense.

Delving into the weeds for a moment, it may be my view and not Mr. Trump's, but if his threats curb Greenland's rush for independence from Denmark, this would be a good outcome for the U.S.

The Danes have been responsible stewards. Denmark is a loyal NATO ally. Anathema ought to be handing over its giant, indefensible island hinterland to 56,000 local voters. Notice how the "resource curse" has turned the Mideast into a byword of stability and progress. The gap between present status and expectations is even vaster and more dislocating -- on paper, every Greenlander is a multimillionaire given the wealth under their feet.

These are circumstances to undo almost any newly independent nation. In how many years might an outside military have to intervene if demagogues and kleptocrats come to power?

Mr. Trump has dominated the downtime between election and inauguration with his stink-bomb musings on age-old geopolitical questions. He successfully crowded other world leaders and their words off the stage, consolidating his astonishing gift for driving the global discussion. This alone is a useful demonstration. If he has a good game plan to go with it, it could pay off for America." [1]

If Biden's goal was to destroy the West's ability to wage war against countries like Iran, then Biden has achieved that goal. War requires a strong industrial base. After Biden destroyed Germany's industrial base with high energy prices following sanctions and the bombing of gas pipelines, the West no longer has such a base.

1.  Trump Is a Realist on Greenland. Jenkins, Holman W; Jr.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Jan 2025: A17.

 

Kinijos Xi ir JAV Trumpas aptarė sudėtingas problemas --- Pekinas atsiųs savo viceprezidentą į inauguraciją, žada bendradarbiauti

 „Kinijos lyderis Xi Jinpingas ir išrinktasis prezidentas Donaldas Trumpas pažadėjo glaudžiai bendradarbiauti svarbiais klausimais per retą telefono skambutį prieš, kitą savaitę vyksiančią, inauguraciją, kurioje Pekinui atstovaus jo viceprezidentas.

 

 Socialinės žiniasklaidos įraše Trumpas sakė, kad pora aptarė prekybą, fentanilį, TikTok ir kitus dalykus. „Tikiuosi, kad daug problemų išspręsime kartu ir tuoj pat“, – rašė D. Trumpas.

 

 Jis nepateikė informacijos apie tai, kas buvo pasakyta, tačiau pridūrė: „Prezidentas Xi ir aš padarysime viską, kas įmanoma, kad pasaulis būtų taikesnis ir saugesnis“. Trumpas, perspėjęs apie naujus tarifus, užsiminė apie savo susirūpinimą dėl Kinijos pertekliaus, kalbėdamas apie „prekybos subalansavimą“.

 

 Atrodo, kad tai pirmas kartas, kai jiedu kalbėjosi tiesiogiai po to, kai Trumpas paliko savo postą po pirmosios kadencijos 2021 m. Xi anksčiau pasveikino Trumpą su pergale rinkimuose, o Trumpas pašnekovams sakė, kad jiedu bendravo per atstovus.

 

 Valstybinės žiniasklaidos paskelbtame Kinijos skambučio pranešime teigiama, kad pora susitarė sukurti strateginį komunikacijos kanalą, kad palaikytų nuolatinį ryšį svarbiais klausimais. Jame teigiama, kad Xi išreiškė viltį, kad nepaisant neišvengiamų JAV ir Kinijos skirtumų, abi šalys gali plėtoti savo bendrus interesus ir išnaudoti bendradarbiavimo sritis, sakydamas, kad gali tapti net partneriais ir draugais.

 

 Xi taip pat priminė Trumpui, kad Taivano klausimą jis tvarkytų „apdairiai“, pavadindamas tai nacionalinio suverenumo ir teritorinio vientisumo susirūpinimu, pranešė valstybinė žiniasklaida. Kinijos lyderis pridūrė, kad prekybos pagrindas yra abipusiai naudingi rezultatai. „Konfrontacija ir konfliktai neturėtų būti abiejų šalių pasirinkimas“, – sakė Xi, valstybinės žiniasklaidos teigimu.

 

 Vieninteliai kiti specifiniai klausimai, paminėti Kinijos skaitinyje, buvo nenustatyti mainai, susiję su konfliktais Ukrainoje ir Artimuosiuose Rytuose.

 

 „Tokie lyderių skambučiai yra svarbūs“, – sakė Demokratijų gynybos fondo vyresnysis Kinijos bendradarbis Craigas Singletonas.

 

 Jis priešpastato ankstyvą lyderių bendravimą su Kinijos požiūriu su Bidenu. 

 

„Xi iš esmės ignoravo Bideną“, – sakė jis. 

 

"Reguliarus bendravimas yra labai svarbus, siekiant skatinti JAV interesus ir kartu užtikrinti aiškumą konkurencijoje", - sakė Singletonas.

 

 Skambutis įvyko anksti penktadienį, likus kelioms valandoms iki Aukščiausiojo Teismo sprendimo patvirtinti įstatymą, kuris sekmadienį gali priversti TikTok išvykti iš JAV. Kinijos paskyroje nebuvo paminėta „TikTok“, o Trumpas nepaaiškino, kaip ši programa buvo aptariama.

 

 Anksčiau penktadienį Pekinas sakė, kad viceprezidentas Hanas Zhengas atstovaus Kinijai pirmadienį vyksiančioje Xi specialiojo atstovo inauguracijoje, kai Trumpas ėmėsi žingsnio ir pakvietė patį Xi.

 

 Kinijos vyriausybė, paskelbdama apie Xi planą išsiųsti pasiuntinį, teigė, kad santykiuose su JAV ji vadovaujasi abipusės pagarbos, taikaus sambūvio ir abipusiai naudingo bendradarbiavimo principais, kurdama ir plėtodama dvišalius ryšius.

 

 Hanas, buvęs vyriausiojo Komunistų partijos sprendimus priimančio organo narys, yra aukščiausias atstovas, kurį Kinija išsiuntė prisaikdinti Amerikos prezidentą. Vašingtonas į tokias ceremonijas paprastai kviesdavo ambasadorius ir kitus žemesnio lygio pareigūnus, tačiau Trumpas sulaužė precedentą, šį kartą pakviesdamas Xi.

 

 „Mes norime bendradarbiauti su naująja JAV vyriausybe, kad sustiprintume dialogą ir bendravimą“, kad tinkamai valdytume nesutarimus ir plėstume bendradarbiavimą, pranešė Kinijos užsienio reikalų ministerijos atstovas spaudai, praneša valstybinė žiniasklaida.

 

 Tikėtina, kad Pekinas tęs Hano kelione pradėtą veiklą ir sieks surengti aukšto lygio susitikimus su Trumpo administracija, pavyzdžiui, Kinijos užsienio reikalų ministro Wang Yi ir jo kolegos iš Amerikos diskusijų, sakė Singapūro Nanyang technologijos universiteto docentas Dylanas Lohas.“ [1]

 

1.  U.S. News: Xi, Trump Discuss Thorny Issues --- Beijing will send its vice president to the inauguration, vows cooperative efforts. Chun Han Wong; Areddy, James T.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Jan 2025: A7. 

Xi, Trump Discuss Thorny Issues --- Beijing will send its vice president to the inauguration, vows cooperative efforts

"Chinese leader Xi Jinping and President-elect Donald Trump vowed to engage closely on major issues in a rare phone call ahead of next week's inauguration, where Beijing will be represented by its vice president.

In a social-media post, Trump said the pair discussed trade, fentanyl, TikTok and other subjects. "It is my expectation that we will solve many problems together, and starting immediately," Trump wrote.

He provided no details of what was said, though he added, "President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe." Trump, who has warned of new tariffs, hinted at his concern about China's surplus by referring to "balancing trade."

It appears to be the first time the two spoke directly since Trump left office after his first term in 2021. Xi had previously congratulated Trump on his election win, and Trump has said to interviewers that the two have been in communication through representatives.

China's readout of the call, published by state media, said the pair agreed to establish a strategic communication channel to maintain regular contact on major issues. It said Xi expressed hope that despite inevitable differences between the U.S. and China, the two countries can develop their common interests and exploit areas of cooperation, saying they can even become partners and friends.

Xi also reminded Trump to handle the issue of Taiwan "with prudence," calling it a concern of national sovereignty and territorial integrity, state media said. China's leader added that the basis of trade is to produce win-win results. "Confrontation and conflict should not be an option for the two countries," Xi said, according to state media.

The only other specific issues mentioned in China's readout were unspecified exchanges related to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

"Leader-to-leader calls like these are important," Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said.

He contrasted the early outreach between the leaders with China's approach with Biden. "Xi largely ignored Biden," he said. "Regular communication is critical for advancing U.S. interests while ensuring clarity in competition," Singleton said.

The call took place early Friday, hours before the Supreme Court ruled to uphold a law that could force TikTok out of the U.S. on Sunday. China's account didn't mention TikTok, and Trump didn't elaborate on how the app was discussed.

Earlier Friday, Beijing said Vice President Han Zheng would represent China at Monday's inauguration as Xi's special representative, after Trump took the step of inviting Xi himself to attend.

China's government, in announcing Xi's plan to send an envoy, said that in its relationship with the U.S. it follows the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation in viewing and growing bilateral ties.

Han, a former member of the Communist Party's top decision-making body, stands to be the most senior delegate that China has sent to a swearing-in of an American president. Washington has typically invited ambassadors and other lower-level dignitaries to such ceremonies, but Trump broke with precedent by inviting Xi this time.

"We are willing to work with the new U.S. government to strengthen dialogue and communication," to properly manage differences and expand cooperation, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, according to state media.

Beijing is likely to follow up on Han's trip by looking to arrange high-level meetings with the Trump administration, such as discussions between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his American counterparts, said Dylan Loh, an assistant professor at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University who studies China's foreign policy." [1]

1.  U.S. News: Xi, Trump Discuss Thorny Issues --- Beijing will send its vice president to the inauguration, vows cooperative efforts. Chun Han Wong; Areddy, James T.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Jan 2025: A7.