Cheap military drones

 

"USING DRONES to assassinate people has long been the preserve of the most advanced armed forces, such as America's and Israel's. But an attempt on November 7th to kill Iraq's prime minister, Mustafa al-Kadhimi, was a dramatic demonstration of how such "precision-strike" capabilities are spreading to less advanced countries and even to shadowy militias.

Several of Mr Kadhimi's bodyguards were hurt when at least one drone hit his home in the protected "Green Zone" of Baghdad. Other drones may have been shot down. The prime minister survived, appearing soon afterwards on television to denounce the "cowardly" attack.

The hit was so rudimentary, apparently involving quadcopters (of the sort that can be bought by hobbyists) rigged with small bombs, that it could have been staged by any one of Iraq's many armed groups. "If you can deliver pizza with a drone, you can drop a grenade," says James Lewis of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, an American think-tank.

Yet suspicion immediately fell on Iran and its proxies, for two reasons. The first is that Fatah, the political arm of Shia militias aligned with Iran, is furious at losing most of its seats in Iraq's election last month. Loyalists have staged protests and on November 5th attempted to burst into the Green Zone. The following day, at the funeral of a protester killed by security forces, militia leaders vowed revenge against Mr Kadhimi.

The second reason is that Iran has become the most assiduous provider of drone technology to its proxies and friends, not only in Iraq but also in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and the Gaza Strip. These are not the sophisticated machines operated by America, such as the Predator and the Reaper. Instead, they are often "craptastic" knock-offs, made with commercially available components, explains Aaron Stein of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, another American think-tank. But Iran is also making improvements, not least by reverse-engineering captured drones, such as America's stealthy RQ-170.

Like unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from advanced countries, Iranian ones are used for both surveillance and strikes. Unlike them, Iranian UAVs do not usually carry precision-guided munitions. Instead the drone itself is the guided bomb, flying into the target and detonating like a robotic kamikaze. Iran dispenses with the satellite links that allow Western forces to control drones from the other side of the world. Its UAVs are typically operated by line-of-sight radio control, or can guide themselves with GPS technology used in smartphones and automotive satnavs.

Iran achieves great range by distributing UAVs (or the techniques to make them) to its allies across the Middle East, thereby threatening targets from the Mediterranean to the Persian Gulf. The drones are often delivered in kits and assembled locally with little help from Iran, notes Mr Stein. "These drones allow Iran to orchestrate attacks while maintaining deniability and ambiguity," says an Israeli military official.

The simplicity belies the threat that the drones pose. Last month an American outpost in Tanf in Syria was hit by five GPS-guided drones. Nobody was hurt, but American officials later blamed Iran and the Biden administration imposed sanctions on people and firms associated with the drone programme. In 2019 several drones struck Saudi Arabia's oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, interrupting about half of the country's oil output for a while. The Houthi militia in Yemen, which is allied to Iran and has been fighting against a Saudi-led coalition since 2015, claimed responsibility. But Western military sources believe the drones were dispatched from Iraq, or perhaps even from Iran.

Israel pioneered the use of disposable, self-destructing drones to destroy Arab air defences in the 1970s and 1980s. Now, though, it must ward off the drones of its enemies. It has resorted to everything from F-16 fighters to the Iron Dome anti-rocket system, but is looking for a better defence. So is America. "We no longer have air superiority," laments an American military source, referring to the Middle East. "Americans got used to owning the skies."” [1]

1. "The new predators; Iran's military tactics." The Economist, 13 Nov. 2021, p. 53(US)