Will the drone revolution stop the evolution of maneuver warfare?

 

"The former commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, currently the ambassador to the United Kingdom (UK), Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, in his article "How Drones, Data, and Artificial Intelligence Have Transformed Our Military—And Why the U.S. Must Follow Their Example," argues that current developments have turned modern warfare upside down.

 

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a World War I-style conflict of attrition. Thanks to the use of new equipment, the enemy can no longer move on the battlefield unnoticed. The front line has become stuck and turned into defensive fortresses - soldiers are dug in trenches, where even personnel rotation and evacuation of wounded soldiers have become deadly dangerous.

 

Three new technologies have caused the main changes:

 

Small tactical drones - designed to destroy manpower, armored vehicles, and equipment, and even fight other drones. They are used in the air, on land and at sea.

Electronic warfare means – perform electronic signal detection, jamming and interception of drones, help to detect and destroy specialized, difficult-to-replace enemy military teams.

Remote control sensors – are widely used in occupied but unprotected “gray zones”, they create protective buffers that prevent the enemy from penetrating unnoticed.

 

Military analyst Anders Nilsen of the Royal Danish Defense College, commenting on V. Zaluzhny’s article, says that the main feature of these technologies is their low cost. An FPV drone costs about 10% of the cost of an artillery shell. This reduction in the cost of strike capabilities makes a war of attrition effective and economically feasible for countries that previously could not afford to fight such conflicts.

 

V. Zaluzhny criticizes NATO militaries: “Over the years, they have become complacent with their superiority in multi-domain operations and have ‘overslept’ the drone revolution.

 

If NATO militaries were to enter the battlefield in Ukraine today, they would suffer heavy losses – simply because they have nothing to counter the new weapons.”

 

However, many Western officers still believe that they would outperform the Ukrainian armed forces because they would conduct a ‘correct’ maneuver war. Many claim to understand the importance of drones, but still see them as only an auxiliary tool that allows for maneuver warfare.

 

This is dangerous for Western countries, because they still do not realize that Russia has made significant progress in drone technology. Western countries are years behind Russia. If a NATO-Russia war were to occur, Russia would have a large number of experienced drone operators, and NATO militaries would be unprepared for such a confrontation.

 

If any territory is lost to the Russians at the beginning of the war, there is no guarantee that it can be regained.

 

This is especially relevant for the Baltic states, whose current defense doctrines foresee that Russia could occupy part of the territory before a decisive counterattack is launched that would repel them.

 

It is very important to immediately start training drone operators and electronic warfare specialists in NATO countries.

 

The main resource is experienced pilots - the drones themselves are just ammunition that these pilots use, says General V. Zaluzhny.”