This is wrong idea. By hitting with swarms of precise missiles and drones’ desalination plants and other infrastructure, Iran can make the area not livable to everybody, including American troops, completely stop flow of oil, gas, fertilizers and helium from there. The Strait of Hormuz is just an example of what can be done. There are not enough Patriots to protect it all.
Iran targeting critical infrastructure like desalination plants and energy facilities in the Strait of Hormuz would trigger catastrophic economic collapse. Such an escalation would devastate global markets, cut off vital Gulf supplies.
Strategic Risks and Realities
• Global Impact: Halting oil and gas flows would instantly crash world energy markets and hurt American, Asian and European economies most. An all-out war is not on the cards for Mr. Trump.
“Iran's leadership has made a high-stakes calculation in its showdown with President Trump: maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz is a nonnegotiable red line.
By asserting authority over a critical waterway for global crude-oil flows, Tehran is betting that its ability to inflict pain on the U.S. economy is its best leverage to avoid future military action from the U.S. and Israel. With gasoline prices and inflation elevated, Tehran believes that Trump, a Republican, will ultimately accept its terms ahead of fast-approaching midterm elections that could determine the future of his presidency.
But centering its strategy on controlling the strait is an extraordinary gamble. It assumes Trump will prefer a messy, volatile stalemate over an all-out war. In playing this card so aggressively, Tehran risks miscalculating Washington's breaking point and threatening its own economic survival.
"Their maximalism will contribute to their isolation in the long run," said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a policy organization that opposes Iran's rulers.
There are fissures from within Iran's government on control of the strait.
The hard-line Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps sees the control of Hormuz as its most important tool to exert pressure on the West following the degradation of Iran's nuclear program and its militia proxies over the past few years, Iranian and Arab officials and a Revolutionary Guard adviser said.
The Iranian military has suffered major losses since the U.S. and Israel launched a surprise attack on Feb. 28, but has since been able to bog Washington down by harrying shipping in the strait and targeting U.S. assets in the Persian Gulf.
Iranian moderates, on the other hand, have become increasingly worried that the U.S. blockade implemented in response to Iran's attacks on Hormuz is bringing Tehran's economy close to collapse, the officials and adviser said.
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Iran's economic growth will contract 6% in 2026. Its annual inflation rate is about 69%, the IMF said, while average Iranians face fuel shortages and other wartime deprivations.
Iran's chokehold on the strait has cut deeply into global petroleum supplies, with Persian Gulf oil flows having now fallen to around 36% of prewar levels. Yet oil prices never reached sustained levels above $100 a barrel, which could have punished the U.S. economy enough to force capitulation. Even with the Iran-backed Houthis bottling up Saudi oil in the Red Sea, crude prices were below $80 a barrel on Tuesday.
Some Gulf oil has been rerouted to avoid the strait. A limited number of ships have squeezed through the passage by cutting deals with Iran, or by going dark and making the risky crossing.
"There were a lot of factors that provided cushion," said Barbara Leaf, who was the State Department's top Middle East official during the Biden administration. "The oil market was well oversupplied at the outset." After Israel and the U.S. struck Iran's nuclear facilities in June 2025, she said, China was "reading the tea leaves" and started to stockpile oil.
Though Trump has backed off his threats of attacks equivalent to World War II, the U.S. maintains a blockade of Iran and reimposed sanctions that make trading its oil difficult. Iran's own oil exports rely on the passage through the strait. Long-term disruption deprives the Islamic Republic of its primary revenue stream while accelerating efforts by neighboring Gulf states to build alternative bypass routes.
China, one of Iran's most important partners, hasn't come to its rescue. Beijing has dialed back oil purchases, keeping prices down, and shows little sign of picking back up.
But as countries deplete their stockpiles at record rates, it could lead to sustained price increases by the end of the year, some analysts said.
Trump has said Iranian leaders are eager for a deal that would open the strait, lift the U.S. naval blockade and eventually limit Tehran's nuclear program -- the president's latest war aim.
Iran says there are no talks with the U.S.
Instead, Tehran and Oman -- the country sitting on Hormuz's southern coast -- are in talks to create a temporary channel for ships to safely pass. Tehran has demanded to collect tolls from ships transiting the strait.
Mediators in Egypt, Pakistan and Qatar are hopeful that once there is a temporary fix for the strait, the U.S. and Iran may be able to get back to the negotiating table.
On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio provided insight into the administration's hope for a two-step negotiation that, eventually, ends with severe caps on Iran's nuclear advancements. "There's the big deal, which is the one that has to do with their nuclear ambitions," he said.
"The immediate deal and the one that you've seen a lot of focus on is the straits," the secretary added.
Rubio's remarks echoed Trump's desire for an agreement to fully reopen Hormuz by Wednesday before relaunching nuclear talks.
U.S. officials privately noted Washington is pursuing a similar course that led to June's memorandum of understanding -- ceasefire first, then negotiations -- before Trump grew impatient and relaunched attacks on Iran.
Over the long term, Iran's leverage over the global economy and its Persian Gulf neighbors could diminish as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other large oil producers successfully create alternative routes for their oil that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
"They are all looking for bypasses," Leaf, the former senior State Department official, said of Arab Gulf states.
Those bypasses, however, all lie in striking range of Iranian missiles’ and drones’ swarms. "If the Iranians are fully committed to laying waste to Gulf energy infrastructure, they could do it, and that will outrun the build-out that any of these countries are undertaking," Leaf said.” [1]
All this Iran situation proves that green speeches from EU leaders are just speeches. Fossil fuels remain important as ever. This was the main mistake with sanctions on cheap Russian gas. China is really enjoying EU’s mistake.
The tension in the Middle East shows the hard limits of Europe's energy transition. While leaders talk about green energy, global oil and gas markets still dictate immediate economic survival.
Europe and Fossil Fuels
• Short-term reality: Europe still needs gas and oil to keep factories open and homes warm.
• Sanction impact: Cutting off cheap Russian pipeline gas forced Europe to buy expensive LNG from global markets.
• Green gap: Renewable energy builds slowly, leaving a large gap filled by alternative fossil fuels.
China's Advantage
• Cheaper inputs: China buys discounted Russian energy supplies that Europe rejected.
• Industrial edge: Low energy costs give Chinese factories a big price advantage over European rivals.
• Market power: China controls many green tech supply chains while still using cheap fossil fuels at home.
1. Iran Bets All of Its Chips on Control Of Strait --- Tehran's maximalist stance poses risk of new escalation with U.S., economic harms. Abdel-Baqui, Omar; Faucon, Benoit; Ward, Alexander. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 05 Aug 2026: A1.
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