Demographic Challenges

“Lithuania is experiencing a demographic crisis. The Prime Minister stated that this year he intends to initiate an agreement between parties and state institutions on demography.

 

The Conservatives have already prepared their plan, which “aims to ensure a long-term, election-cycle-independent state strategy that would halt the aging of the population, promote fertility, and create a favorable environment for families.”

 

One cannot disagree with the goal, but one must seriously doubt whether the aforementioned goals will be realized.

No measures have been found to stimulate the birth rate yet

 

Conservative leader Laurynas Kasčiūnas claims that “birth rates are critically low: approximately 0.99 children per woman, when the level that ensures generational change is 2.1 children.”

 

Official statistics are more positive, but in essence gloomy and confusing. In terms of total fertility rate (TFR), the average number of children a woman will have in her lifetime, Lithuania’s rate (1.11) is one of the lowest in the European Union (EU). In 2024, only Malta (1.01) and Spain (1.10) had lower rates. The EU average was 1.34 children per woman. Latvia (1.24), Estonia (1.18), and even Germany (1.36) have higher fertility rates.

 

The situation in South Korea is much bleaker. Tens of billions of dollars have been spent on family policy over the past few decades, but the fertility rate has fallen to around 0.7–0.8. Although the fertility rate increased slightly in 2024 and 2025, it still stands at only around 0.8 children per woman. It is predicted that by 2050, South Korea will lose around 13 percent of its current population, and by 2100, population will be reduced by more than half.

 

So far, no measures have been found to increase the birth rate to a level that ensures generational renewal. Many demographic and economic studies in Europe show that various financial incentives more often accelerate the birth of already planned children, bringing forward the time of their birth, than affecting the final number of children.

 

Children are born earlier to take advantage of the financial incentives, but they do not have more children. Thus, financial incentives more often change when people have children, but much less often change how many children they ultimately decide to have.

 

France has maintained one of the highest birth rates in Europe thanks to a wide package of measures: generous benefits, a wide network of childcare services, tax breaks and better opportunities to reconcile work and family. Migration has played a significant role.

 

First-generation immigrant women from many Muslim countries have more children on average than women born in France, but the gap is narrowing with each generation. In 2025 The total fertility rate has fallen to 1.56 children per woman. It is expected to fall further in the future.

 

Properly managed immigration may be the solution

 

The declining birth rate can be partly offset by migration, by inviting foreigners to come and work. This practice is particularly widespread in the small Gulf states. In some of them, the native population is only a small minority, in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait it is about 10-13 percent of the total population.

 

The largest groups of workers in these countries are from India, Bangladesh and Pakistan. These workers usually work on fixed-term contracts and, even after spending decades in the Gulf states, are usually unable to acquire citizenship and can therefore be expelled from the country without major legal obstacles.

 

EU rules would complicate efforts to carry out such a “cleansing”. But as the situation changes, rules and norms may change.

 

For the current government and many residents, mass immigration is undesirable and unacceptable. Laurynas Kasčiūnas represents the majority, arguing that “immigration policy must be controlled and correspond to the possibilities of the Lithuanian labor market and integration. The survival of the state, its economic and defense power depend on our people.” Migration, as well as permanent residence permits, will be restricted, and the granting of citizenship will be even rarer.

 

In mid-2026, the exact annual distribution of foreigners by citizenship has not yet been announced, but at the beginning of 2025, about 217 thousand foreigners lived in Lithuania, i.e. approximately 7.5 percent. of the country's total population. The situation has not changed significantly over the year.

 

If migration is restricted, it is necessary to determine which people, which nationalities, we will allow in. Business, of course, would give priority to Russian speakers, since many are employed in the transport and logistics sector and most often travel east, not west, where Russian is spoken, not English.

 

So, in fact, priority is given to residents of the territories of the former “evil empire”. But it is not necessary to satisfy the desires of business, there are values ​​that are more precious than the glitter of money or modest growth of the gross domestic product (GDP).

 

Now Russian speakers are more easily integrated, you can talk to them. But the situation is changing. English is becoming a lingua franca, an international language of communication. Lithuanian youth speak English well, I would say, even enviably well. The share of Russian speakers is declining and will continue to decline in the future. After a few years drivers will have to be able to communicate in English at least minimally

 

Some Lithuanian officials, such as the former director of the Migration Department Evelina Gudzinskaitė, have called for efforts to attract more workers from the Philippines and other Asian countries.

 

I agree with this idea. Many Filipinos are Catholic, so they are culturally close to Lithuanians. They are hardworking, peaceful and law-abiding, used to working in foreign countries, so they could be invited to work in Lithuania in transport, health care, nursing and other areas, reducing the number and percentage of Russian speakers.

 

If the birth rate were to grow, the increase would be insignificant, so the need for greater migration would not be reduced. With some exceptions, Lithuanian officials have been quite passively waiting for the problem to resolve itself.

 

Fairytale solutions to problems occur in fairy tales, not in the unruly real world.

 

Lithuanian officials would be wise to demystify the Russian threat and reduce the size of the defense budget. Russia has not attacked and will not attack a NATO country, except in the most exceptional and unlikely circumstances. However, the number of births will continue to be significantly lower than what is needed to maintain population stability.

 

There are no known and proven measures to ensure long-term growth in the birth rate in developed countries. Therefore, it is obvious that strategies need to be developed that would mitigate some of the negative consequences of this trend and prepare for a future in which the greater threat and challenge will be a population shortage, not a surplus.

 

Let us hope that such strategies will be formulated in time to avoid some of the worst possible consequences.”

 

The Ministry of National Defense indicates that defense spending in 2026 will amount to 5.38 percent. GDP or 4.79 billion euros. That is a lot of gold teeth and golden spoons.