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2023 m. balandžio 1 d., šeštadienis

Sam Altman Builds Our AI Future --- The 37-year-old CEO behind ChatGPT navigates the line between developing artificial intelligence and pushing tech to dystopia

"Sam Altman, the 37-year-old startup-minting guru at the forefront of the artificial intelligence boom, has long dreamed of a future in which computers could converse and learn like humans.

One of his clearest childhood memories is sitting up late in his bedroom in suburban St. Louis, playing with the Macintosh LC II he had gotten for his eighth birthday when he had the sudden realization: "Someday, the computer was going to learn to think," he said.

In recent months, Mr. Altman has done more than anyone else to usher in this future -- and commercialize it. OpenAI, the company he leads, in November released ChatGPT, the chatbot with an uncanny ability to produce humanlike writing that has become one of the most viral products in the history of technology. In the process, OpenAI went from a small nonprofit into a multibillion-dollar company, at near record speed, thanks in part to the launch of a for-profit arm that enabled it to raise $13 billion from Microsoft Corp., according to investor documents.

This success has come as part of a delicate balancing act. Mr. Altman said he fears what could happen if AI is rolled out into society recklessly. He co-founded OpenAI eight years ago as a research nonprofit, arguing that it's uniquely dangerous to have profits be the main driver of developing powerful AI models.

He is so wary of profit as an incentive in AI development that he has taken no direct financial stake in the business he built, he said -- an anomaly in Silicon Valley, where founders of successful startups typically get rich off their equity.

"Like most other people, I like watching scores go up," when it comes to financial gains, he said. "And I just like not having that be any factor at all." (The company said he earns a "modest" salary, but declined to disclose how much.) Mr. Altman said he has a small stake in a venture fund that invested in OpenAI, but that it is "immaterial."

Mr. Altman said he made "more money than I could ever need" early in his career, when he made a fortune investing in young startups. He owns three homes, including a mansion in San Francisco's Russian Hill neighborhood and a weekend home in Napa Valley, and employs a couple dozen people to manage them and his family office of investments and nonprofits.

During one of his last visits to his grandmother, who died last year, he bought her groceries and then admitted to his mother that he hadn't been to a grocery store in four or five years, she said.

His goal, he said, is to forge a new world order in which machines free people to pursue more creative work. In his vision, universal basic income -- the concept of a cash stipend for everyone, no strings attached -- helps compensate for jobs replaced by AI. Mr. Altman even thinks that humanity will love AI so much that an advanced chatbot could represent "an extension of your will."

In the long run, he said, he wants to set up a global governance structure that would oversee decisions about the future of AI and gradually reduce the power OpenAI's executive team has over its technology.

Backers say his brand of social-minded capitalism makes him the ideal person to lead OpenAI. Others, including some who've worked for him, say he's too commercially minded to lead a technological revolution that is already reshaping business and social life.

The company signed a $10 billion deal with Microsoft in January that would allow the tech behemoth to own 49% of the company's for-profit entity, investor documents show. The corporate partnership, along with Mr. Altman's push to more aggressively commercialize its technology, have disillusioned key early leaders at OpenAI who felt the decisions violated an initial commitment to develop AI outside the influence of shareholders.

One of OpenAI's critics has been Elon Musk, who co-founded the nonprofit in 2015 but parted ways in 2018 after a dispute over its control and direction. The Tesla Inc. CEO tweeted in February that OpenAI had been founded as an open-source nonprofit "to serve as a counterweight to Google, but now it has become a closed source, maximum-profit company effectively controlled by Microsoft. Not what I intended at all."

Mr. Altman paused when asked about his co-founder's critique. "I like Elon," he finally responded. "I pay attention to what he has to say."

Mr. Altman said he doesn't necessarily need to be first to develop artificial general intelligence, a world long imagined by researchers and science-fiction writers where software isn't just good at one specific task like generating text or images but can understand and learn as well or better than a human can. He instead said OpenAI's ultimate mission is to build AGI, as it's called, safely.

OpenAI has set profit caps for investors, with any returns beyond certain levels -- from seven to 100 times what they put in, depending on how early they invested -- flowing to the nonprofit parent, according to investor documents. OpenAI and Microsoft also created a joint safety board, which includes Mr. Altman, that has the power to roll back Microsoft and OpenAI product releases if they are deemed too dangerous.

The possibilities of AGI have led Mr. Altman to entertain the idea that some similar technology created our universe, according to billionaire venture capitalist Peter Thiel, a close friend of Mr. Altman's and an early donor to the nonprofit. He has long been a proponent of the idea that humans and machines will one day merge.

ChatGPT's release triggered a stream of competing AI announcements. "They've raced to release press releases," Mr. Altman said of his competitors. "Obviously, they're behind now." Google announced it was testing its own chatbot, Bard, in February and opened access to the public in March.

OpenAI's headquarters, in San Francisco's Mission District, evokes an affluent New Age utopia more than a nonprofit trying to save the world.

Mr. Altman gushes about the winding, central staircase he conceived so that all 400 of the company's employees would have a chance to pass each other daily -- or at least on the Mondays through Wednesdays they are required to work in-person. The office includes a self-serve bar and a library modeled after a combination of his favorite bookstore in Paris and the Bender Room, a quiet study space on the top floor of Stanford University's largest library.

Dressed in the typical tech CEO uniform of a gray hoodie, jeans and blindingly white sneakers, Mr. Altman described a much more modest upbringing.

Mr. Altman grew up in a suburb of St. Louis, the eldest of four children born to Connie Gibstine, a dermatologist, and Jerry Altman, who worked various jobs, including as a lawyer, and died five years ago. The senior Mr. Altman's true vocation was running affordable housing nonprofits, his family said.

Among the lessons his father taught him, Mr. Altman said, was that "you always help people -- even if you don't think you have time, you figure it out."

Mr. Altman went on to Stanford. By sophomore year he had co-founded Loopt, a location-based social networking service. It became part of the first class of Y Combinator, a startup accelerator that went on to hatch companies like Airbnb Inc., Stripe Inc. and Dropbox Inc., and Mr. Altman left school.

Loopt never got traction, selling in 2012 for $43.4 million, or close to the amount investors including Sequoia Capital put in.

Mr. Altman then started a venture fund and made powerful allies, including Paul Graham, who co-founded Y Combinator and eventually brought on Mr. Altman. There he helped build the company into a Silicon Valley power broker. He invested his own money in dozens of successful companies early on, including cloud software company Asana Inc. and message-board site Reddit Inc.

While running Y Combinator, Mr. Altman began to nurse a growing fear that large research labs like DeepMind, purchased by Google in 2014, were creating potentially dangerous AI technologies outside the public eye. Mr. Musk has voiced similar concerns.

Messrs. Altman and Musk decided it was time to start their own lab. Both were part of a group that pledged $1 billion to the nonprofit, OpenAI Inc. Mr. Musk didn't respond to requests to comment.

The nonprofit meandered in its early years, experimenting with projects like teaching robots how to perform tasks like solving Rubik's cubes. OpenAI researchers soon concluded that the most promising path to achieve artificial general intelligence rested in large language models, or computer programs that mimic the way humans read and write. Such models required a massive amount of computing power that OpenAI wasn't equipped to fund as a nonprofit, according to Mr. Altman.

"We didn't have a visceral sense of just how expensive this project was going to be," he said. "We still don't."

That year, Mr. Altman said he looked into options to raise more money for OpenAI, such as launching a new cryptocurrency. "No one wanted to fund this in any way," he said. "It was a really hard time."

Tensions also grew with Mr. Musk, who became frustrated with the slow progress and pushed for more control over the organization, people familiar with the matter said.

OpenAI executives ended up reviving an unusual idea that had been floated earlier in the company's history: creating a for-profit arm, OpenAI LP, that would report to the nonprofit parent.

Reid Hoffman, a LinkedIn co-founder who advised OpenAI at the time and later served on the board, said the idea was to attract investors eager to make money from the commercial release of some OpenAI technology, accelerating OpenAI's progress. "You want to be there first and you want to be setting the norms," he said. "That's part of the reason why speed is a moral and ethical thing here."

The decision further alienated Mr. Musk, the people familiar with the matter said. He parted ways with OpenAI in February 2018.

Mr. Musk announced his departure in a company all-hands, former employees at the meeting said. Mr. Musk said that he thought he had a better chance at creating artificial general intelligence through Tesla, where he had access to greater resources, they said.

A young researcher questioned whether Mr. Musk had thought through the safety implications, the former employees said. Mr. Musk grew visibly frustrated and called the intern a "jackass," leaving employees stunned, they said.

Soon after, an OpenAI executive commissioned a "jackass" trophy for the young researcher, which was later presented to him on a pillow. "You've got to have a little fun," Mr. Altman said. "This is the stuff that culture gets made out of."

Mr. Musk's departure marked a turning point. Later that year, Open-AI leaders told employees that Mr. Altman was set to lead the company. He formally became CEO and helped complete the creation of the for-profit subsidiary in early 2019.

In the meantime, Mr. Altman began hunting for investors. His break came at Allen & Co.'s annual conference in Sun Valley, Idaho, in the summer of 2018, where he bumped into Satya Nadella, the Microsoft CEO, on a stairwell and pitched him on OpenAI. The conversations picked up that winter.

"I remember coming back to the team after and I was like, this is the only partner," Mr. Altman said.

Some employees still saw the deal as a Faustian bargain.

OpenAI's lead safety researcher, Dario Amodei, and his lieutenants feared the deal would allow Microsoft to sell products using powerful OpenAI technology before it was put through enough safety testing, former employees said.

Mr. Amodei also worried the deal would tether OpenAI's ship to just one company -- Microsoft -- making it more difficult for OpenAI to stay true to its founding charter's commitment to assist another project if it got to AGI first, the former employees said.

Microsoft initially invested $1 billion in OpenAI. While the deal gave OpenAI its needed money, it came with a hitch: exclusivity. OpenAI agreed to use only Microsoft's giant computer servers, via its Azure cloud service, to train its AI models, and to give the tech giant the sole right to license OpenAI's technology for future products.

"You kind of have to jump off the cliff and hope you land," Mr. Nadella said in a recent interview. "That's kind of how platform shifts happen."

The cash turbocharged OpenAI's progress, giving researchers access to the computing power needed to improve large language models, which were trained on billions of pages of publicly available text. OpenAI developed a more powerful language model called GPT-3 and then sold developers access to the technology in June 2020.

Mr. Amodei left the company a few months later with several others to found a rival AI lab called Anthropic. "They had a different opinion about how to best get to safe AGI than we did," Mr. Altman said.

Anthropic has since received more than $300 million from Google this year and released its own AI chatbot called Claude in March.

More than one million users signed up for ChatGPT within five days of its November release, a speed that surprised even Mr. Altman. It followed the company's introduction of DALL-E 2, which can generate sophisticated images from text prompts.

By February, ChatGPT had reached 100 million users, according to analysts at UBS, the fastest pace by a consumer app in history to reach that mark.

Mr. Altman's close associates praise his ability to balance OpenAI's priorities. No one better navigates between the "Scylla of misplaced idealism" and the "Charybdis of myopic ambition," Mr. Thiel said.

Mr. Altman said he delayed the release of the latest version of its model, GPT-4, from last year to March to run additional safety tests. Users had reported some disturbing experiences with the model, integrated into Bing, where the software hallucinated -- meaning it made up answers to questions it didn't know. It issued ominous warnings and made threats.

"The way to get it right is to have people engage with it, explore these systems, study them, to learn how to make them safe," Mr. Altman said.

After Microsoft's initial investment is paid back, it would capture 49% of OpenAI's profits until the profit cap, up from 21% under prior arrangements, the documents show. OpenAI Inc., the nonprofit parent, would get the rest.

Mr. Altman has put almost all his liquid wealth in recent years in two companies: $375 million into Helion Energy, which is seeking to create carbon-free energy from nuclear fusion, and $180 million into Retro, which aims to add 10 years to the human lifespan.

He noted how much easier these problems are, morally, than AI. "If you're making nuclear fusion, it's all upside. It's just good," he said. "If you're making AI, it is potentially very good, potentially very terrible."" [1]

1. EXCHANGE --- Sam Altman Builds Our AI Future --- The 37-year-old CEO behind ChatGPT navigates the line between developing artificial intelligence and pushing tech to dystopia
Berber, Jin; Keach Hagey.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 01 Apr 2023: B.1.

 

Turkija siūlo dilemą dėl sankcijų Rusijai --- Infliacijai ir kitoms bėdoms erzinus šalį, atsiranda pagrindinis prekybos partneris

  „Sankcijas ir kitus prekybos apribojimus labai sunku įgyvendinti vieniems, net ir tokioje didelėje šalyje kaip JAV. Tam tikras draugų ir sąjungininkų erzinimas, kartu su paslėptais grasinimais ir paskatomis, ateina kartu su teritorija.

 

     Tačiau Turkijos atvejis yra ypač gluminantis. Turkija yra NATO sąjungininkė, tiekė Ukrainai bepiločių orlaivių, kurie padarė esminį poveikį įvykių pradžioje, ir padėjo sudaryti susitarimą su Rusija, kad Ukrainos grūdai tekėtų į pasaulį. Tačiau ji tapo pagrindiniu puslaidininkių ir kitos potencialiai dvejopo naudojimo elektros įrangos tranzito į Rusiją tašku, Rusijos turistų ir Rusijos oro linijų, skraidančių tranzitu JAV pagamintais lėktuvais, vieta. Turkija taip pat yra pagrindinė Rusijos energijos pirkėja – ir sulaiko Švedijos ir Suomijos stojimą į aljansą.

 

     Tai šalis, išgyvenanti gilią ekonominę krizę, atsigaunanti po niokojančio žemės drebėjimo. Jos prekyba su Rusija tapo ekonominiu išsigelbėjimu.

 

     Visa tai daro bet kokias neįmanomomis rimtas pastangas spausti šalį užimti tvirtesnę poziciją prieš Rusiją. Tai, tikriausiai, reiškia, kad daugelis aukštųjų technologijų prekių ir kitos pagrindinės įrangos ir toliau plūs per ją į Rusiją. Nauja administracija po gegužę įvykusių rinkimų gali pakeisti šį požiūrį, bet, tikriausiai, tik tuo atveju, jei Vakarai ir jų sąjungininkai norės įsikišti su finansine pagalba, kad kompensuotų šalies santykių su Rusija pranašumus.

 

     Nenuostabu, kad tų santykių kertinis akmuo yra energija. Didžiąja dalimi dėl Erdogano administracijos primygtinai reikalingos labai netradicinės pinigų politikos, 2021 m. gruodžio mėn. Turkijos infliacija siekė 36 proc. Naftos kainų kilimas ir prekybos sutrikimai karo pradžioje tuomet ją padidino: Turkijos lira vėl smarkiai sumažėjo, o infliacija išaugo net 85 proc.

 

     Kad ir kaip būtų blogai, padėtis tikriausiai būtų gerokai prastesnė, jei nebūtų suteiktos subsidijos iš Rusijos naftos, importuojamos su didele nuolaida, palyginti su pasauliniu Brent naftos standartu: maždaug 20 dolerių už barelį 2022 m. 2021 m. 28 % Turkijos importo. Jungtinių Tautų duomenimis, sąskaita už mineralinį kurą ir alyvą – prekybos kategoriją, kuriai priklauso žalia nafta – atkeliavo iš Rusijos. 2022 m. tai padarė 43 %, o beveik 60 % grynojo išlaidų padidėjimo teko Rusijai. Tuo tarpu transportas, elektra ir kuras tiesiogiai sudaro beveik ketvirtadalį Turkijos vartotojų kainų krepšelio.

 

     Didėjančio eksporto į Rusiją poveikis buvo ne toks dramatiškas, bet vis tiek svarbus atsižvelgiant į prekybos deficitą, kuris 2021 m. viduryje išaugo nuo maždaug 4 mlrd. dolerių per mėnesį iki maždaug dvigubai didesnio, nei iki 2022 m. valiuta, kuri privertė Ankarą garantuoti daugelį liromis denominuotų indėlių nuo valiutos nuvertėjimo. Remiantis duomenų teikėjo CEIC duomenimis, bendras Turkijos eksportas pernai išaugo 13%, tačiau eksportas, neįskaitant Rusijos, išaugo 11%. Eksportas į Rusiją išaugo 62%.

 

     Naftos kainoms nukritus 2023 m. pradžioje, Turkijos infliacija taip pat šiek tiek sumažėjo: vasarį ji buvo 55%. Tačiau šalis susiduria su lėtėjančiu augimu – 3,5% per metus ketvirtąjį ketvirtį, palyginti su 9,6% prieš metus – ir brangiai kainuojančio žemės drebėjimo padariniais.

 

     Be abejo, netradicinė R. T. Erdogano administracijos pinigų politika – palūkanų mažinimas, augant infliacijai – ir kiti klaidingi žingsniai prisiima didelę atsakomybę už Turkijos bėdas. Tačiau tautos, kaip gyvybiškai svarbios Rusijos prekybos partnerės, atsiradimas išryškina vieną iš griežtų sankcijų realijų: griežtas vykdymas visada pareikalauja didelių politinių ir ekonominių išlaidų, o kartais tose vietose, kur patiria didelių gamtos ar žmogaus sukeltų nelaimių." [1]

 

Tai pamoka Lietuvai: galima būti NATO sudėtyje ir pelningai prekiauti su Rusija, naudojantis tuo, kad gyvename Rusijos kaimynystėje. Moralės klausimu, reikia nuolat prisiminti Jėzų, mūsų Viešpatį: tegul tas pirmas meta akmenį, kuris yra visai be nuodėmės.


1. Turkey Offers Dilemma on Russia Sanctions --- As inflation and other troubles vex nation, a key trading partner emerges
Taplin, Nathaniel.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 31 Mar 2023: B.12.

Turkey Offers Dilemma on Russia Sanctions --- As inflation and other troubles vex nation, a key trading partner emerges

"Sanctions and other trade restrictions are very tough to enforce alone, even for a country as large as the U.S. A certain amount of badgering of friends and allies -- along with veiled threats and inducements -- comes with the territory.

But the case of Turkey is particularly confounding. Turkey is a NATO ally, has supplied Ukraine with drones that made a crucial difference early in the war and helped broker the pact with Russia that keeps Ukrainian grain flowing to the world. But it has emerged as a key transit point for semiconductors and other potentially dual-use electrical equipment into Russia, a destination for Russian tourists and for Russian airlines flying U.S.-made airplanes to transit. Turkey also is a key buyer of Russian energy -- all while holding up Sweden's and Finland's accession to the alliance.

It is a country in deep economic crisis, recovering from a devastating earthquake. Its trade with Russia has become an economic lifeline.

All of this makes any serious effort to pressure the country into taking a stronger stance against Russia highly fraught. That probably means many high-tech goods and other key equipment will continue to flow through it into Russia. A new administration after May's election might change that calculus, but probably only if the West and its allies are willing to step in with financial assistance to offset the advantages of the country's relationship with Russia.

The cornerstone of that relationship, unsurprisingly, is energy. In large part due to the Erdogan administration's insistence on a highly unconventional monetary policy, Turkish inflation was sitting at 36% in December 2021. The run-up in oil prices and trade disruptions at the beginning of the war then supercharged it: The Turkish lira dropped sharply again, and inflation increased as high as 85%.

As bad as that is, the situation would probably have been significantly worse without the subsidy from Russian oil imported at a hefty discount to the global benchmark of Brent crude: around $20 a barrel for much of 2022. In 2021, 28% of Turkey's import bill for mineral fuels and oils, a trade category that includes crude oil, came from Russia, according to United Nations data. In 2022, 43% did -- and nearly 60% of the net increase in spending went to Russia. Meanwhile, transport, electricity and fuel directly account for close to one-quarter of Turkey's consumer-price basket.

The impact of rising exports to Russia was less dramatic, but still important in the context of a trade deficit that blew out from about $4 billion a month in mid-2021 to roughly twice that by the last quarter of 2022, and a run on the currency that forced Ankara to guarantee many lira-denominated deposits against currency depreciation. Turkey's overall exports managed to rise 13% last year, according to figures from data provider CEIC, but exports excluding Russia rose 11%. Exports to Russia rose 62%.

With oil prices down in early 2023, Turkish inflation is down marginally, too: It was 55% in February. But the country faces slowing growth -- 3.5% year over year in the fourth quarter, down from 9.6% a year earlier -- and the costly earthquake aftermath.

To be sure, the Erdogan administration's unconventional monetary policy -- cutting rates amid rising inflation -- and other missteps bear much responsibility for Turkey's troubles. But the nation's emergence as a vital trading partner for Russia highlights one of the harsh realities of sanctions: Tough enforcement always entails significant political and economic costs, and sometimes in places suffering substantial natural or man-made misfortune." [1]

 

 This is a lesson for Lithuania: it is possible to be part of NATO and trade profitably with Russia, taking advantage of the fact that we live in Russia's neighborhood. In the matter of morality, we must constantly remember Jesus, our Lord: let him who is without sin cast the first stone.

 

1. Turkey Offers Dilemma on Russia Sanctions --- As inflation and other troubles vex nation, a key trading partner emerges
Taplin, Nathaniel.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 31 Mar 2023: B.12.

Atleidimai iš darbo nesumažina darbo jėgos paklausos

„Visi tie atleidimai iš atleidimo iš darbo neturėjo didelės įtakos darbo rinkai. Pastarasis bankų šurmulys taip pat gali nepakenkti.

 

     JAV darbo vietų augimas išliko nepaprastai didelis, nepaisant per pastaruosius metus smarkiai išaugusių Federalinio rezervų banko palūkanų normų, griūvančio būsto ir keleto raundų, kai buvo atleista pagal antraštes iš tokių įmonių, kaip „Google“ pagrindinė „Alphabet“ įmonė, „Meta Platforms“ ir „Amazon.com“. 

 

Kai įmonės, pradedant ligoninėmis ir baigiant viešbučiais, stengiasi gauti reikiamą darbuotojų skaičių, žmonių, netenkančių darbo vietų, skaičius yra mažas, palyginti su tais, kurie jas gavo.

 

     Ne tai, kad visoje ekonomikoje atleidžiamų žmonių skaičius buvo didelis.

 

     Ketvirtadienį Darbo departamentas pranešė, kad per savaitę, pasibaigusią šeštadienį, buvo pateikta sezoniškai pakoreguota 198 000 naujų nedarbo prašymų, šiek tiek daugiau, nei praėjusią savaitę, tačiau vis dar labai mažas skaičius. 2019-aisiais – metais, kuriems būdingas stiprus darbas darbo rinkoje – žalų skaičius vidutiniškai siekė apie 220 tūkst.

 

     Gali užtrukti, kol žmonės, netekę darbo, pavėlintai pateikia pareiškimus dėl nedarbo, tačiau per tą laiką, kai kovo 9 d. Silicio slėnio banke kilo sunkumų biržoje, darbo vietų praradimas nebuvo pastebimas.

 

     Be to, darbdavių, siekiančių samdyti, paklausa, atrodo, nesumažėjo.

 

     Bendras JAV laisvų darbo vietų indeksas iš darbo vietų sąrašų svetainės „Indeed“ praėjusį penktadienį iš tikrųjų buvo šiek tiek didesnis, nei buvo prieš Silicio slėnio banko bėdas. Nors ir sumažėjo nuo 2021 m. pabaigoje pasiektų aukštumų, jis vis dar yra trečdaliu didesnis, nei prieš pandemiją.

 

     Panašiai, Duke universiteto Fuqua verslo mokyklos ir Atlantos bei Ričmondo federalinių rezervų bankų vasario pabaigoje–kovo pradžioje atlikta vyriausiųjų finansų pareigūnų apklausa 17 % respondentų labiausiai rūpinosi darbo kokybe ir prieinamumu. - daugiau, nei bet kuris kitas veiksnys, įskaitant infliaciją, pinigų politiką ir ekonomikos būklę. Papildomi 4,8 % didžiausią susirūpinimą kelia darbo sąnaudos.

 

     „Daugelis įmonių niekada negalėjo įdarbinti tiek daug, kiek norėjo“, – sako Duke'o ekonomistas Johnas Grahamas, kuris yra tyrimo akademinis direktorius. „Net jei ekonomika susilpnėja, jie vis tiek bando užpildyti tuos tuščius tarpus."

 

     Žinoma, neaišku, kiek bankų sektoriaus problemos galiausiai gali sumažinti darbuotojų paklausą. Net jei pavojus, kad padidės išeinančių indėlių srautas, buvo sumažintas, regioniniai ir bendruomenės bankai kurį laiką, greičiausiai, bus atsargesni skolindami, taip pat patirs daugiau reguliavimo priemonių.

 

     Tačiau „Goldman Sachs“ ekonomistai pabrėžia, kad skolinimo standartai dėl nuosmukio jau buvo sugriežtinti dar prieš Silicio slėnio žlugimą, todėl bet koks tolesnis griežtinimas gali reikšti tik laipsnišką kredito sąlygų pasikeitimą. Jie taip pat pabrėžia, kad kadangi yra tiek daug neužpildytų darbo vietų, net jei mažų bankų paskolomis finansuojama mažiau plėtros, daugelis žmonių vis tiek susiras darbą.

 

     Dėl bankų problemų gali sumažėti temperatūra darbo rinkoje, todėl įmonėms, turinčioms naujų darbo vietų, bus lengviau samdyti darbuotojus ir sumažinti darbo užmokesčio augimą. Bet jos jo neužšaldys.“ [1]

 

Taip, kad, jei ruošiatės emigruoti į Vakarus, važiuokite drąsiai - darbo bus. Jei ruošiatės dėrėtis dėl geresnių darbo sąlygų - dabar tam tinkamas laikas.

 

1. Layoffs Aren't Denting Labor Demand
Lahart, Justin.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 31 Mar 2023: B.12.