Europe's Climate Almost-Epiphany

"If you didn't believe in miracles before, maybe it's time to start. The European Union on Wednesday released a new economic-growth strategy that goes easy on climate-change pieties and focuses instead on more private investment. In Europe, this counts as both a sign and a wonder.

The plan, formally the Competitiveness Compass for the EU, is Brussels's attempt to meet economic challenges from the U.S. and China while assuaging European voters worried about stagnating economic growth. One of the flashier proposals is to rethink the EU's electric-vehicle mandate, which currently requires all new cars and vans to be zero-emissions by 2035.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whose brainchild this report is, hints at some new flexibility in the intermediate targets that already are taking effect. She suggests the rule could change to be technology-neutral -- meaning it won't mandate battery cars.

This is a far cry from the unshackling of the U.S. auto industry President Trump is attempting via executive orders. But Brussels is all but admitting its mandates are killing Europe's auto industry, and recognizing you have a problem is the first step toward fixing it.

Brussels also promises a big green regulatory simplification. Ms. von der Leyen wants to reduce by 25% the cost of filling in EU-mandated paperwork and other administrative hassles for businesses, and to cut that cost by 35% for small businesses. In the cross-hairs are recent EU rules requiring companies to report on carbon emissions and other environmental effects along their global supply chains. Better late than never to admit this is an investment and jobs killer.

A European growth plan is still European, so there's some dubious industrial policy. That includes diverting cash from public-works projects to industrial research, and a dollop of trade protectionism, especially against Chinese EVs and foreign steel. But there are surprising moments of insight. Brussels wants to reform financial regulations to make it easier for Europeans to invest in growing companies as Americans can via U.S. capital markets.

That was among the most important ideas former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi included in his report on Europe's lagging competitiveness last year. Most officials and commentators at the time focused on what they interpreted as his call for 800 billion euros in extra government spending, so it's a relief to see someone read the rest of his report about deregulation.

Ms. von der Leyen's "compass" is far from a one-stop solution to all Europe's economic problems. But it's the closest Brussels has come to admitting that Europe's climate fixations are killing prosperity. If this augurs the start of bigger rethinks to come, perhaps the continent's decline isn't inexorable." [1]

1. Europe's Climate Almost-Epiphany. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 01 Feb 2025: A12.

 

Besibaigiančios globalizacijos pavojai: brangesni avokadai. Vaje, vaje...

  „Tiekimo grandinės perversmai. Brangesni avokadai. Didesnės šildymo sąskaitos. Ir laimingesnė JAV plieno pramonė.

 

 Prezidentas Trumpas sako, kad šį mėnesį taikys 25% muitus prekėms iš dviejų pagrindinių Amerikos prekybos partnerių Meksikos ir Kanados, nebent jos abi neleis neteisėtiems migrantams ir narkotikams patekti į JAV. Jis taip pat pagrasino papildomu 10% muitu prekėms iš Kinijos. - trečia pagal dydį šalies prekybos partnerė, kaltindamas ją, užtvindžius JAV fentaniliu.

 

 Trumpas taip pat apibūdino tarifus, kaip priemonę apsaugoti ir plėsti JAV gamybą.

 

 Trims didžiausiems prekybos partneriams taikomi tarifai, neįskaitant kitų rinkliavų, kurias prezidentas pažadėjo penktadienį, kirs per ekonomiką ir turės įtakos viskam – nuo ​​bakalėjos kainų iki plieno ir energetikos pramonės. Įmonės jau kuria planus, kaip reaguoti.

 

 Štai ko tikėtis:

 

 Sumišimas

 

 Šiaurės Amerikos įmonės priprato prie dešimtmečius trukusios be muitų prekybos, kurią įgaliojo Šiaurės Amerikos laisvosios prekybos susitarimas ir jo 2020 m. įpėdinis, Jungtinių Valstijų, Meksikos ir Kanados susitarimas, USMCA.

 

 Taigi įvedus tarifus gali kilti painiavos. Ilgos sunkvežimių eilės gali važiuoti ant tiltų Teksase ir Detroite, jei taisyklės nebus iš karto aiškios, todėl pristatymas vėluotų.

 

 Didesnė infliacija

 

 Federalinio rezervų banko pageidaujamas infliacijos matas parodė, kad vartotojų kainos gruodį išaugo 2,6%, palyginti su metais anksčiau. Analizės bendrovės „Capital Economics“ duomenimis, 25 % tarifas prekėms iš Kanados ir Meksikos padidintų infliaciją iki maždaug 3,2 % ir išliktų gerokai didesnis už FED 2 % tikslą.

 

 Trumpo administracija sumažino infliacijos rizikos tikimybės poveikį ir teigė, kad didesni tarifai atneštų daugiau pajamų federaliniam iždui.

 

 Brangesni maisto produktai

 

 Ekonomistai teigia, kad infliaciją vartotojai gali pastebėti pirmiausia, kad padidėtų maisto produktų kainos. Pasak Edo Gressero, buvusio JAV prekybos atstovo padėjėjo, dabar dirbančio Progresyvios politikos institute, Meksika tiekia apie pusę JAV importuojamų šviežių produktų ir yra ypač svarbus tiekėjas žiemą. Pasak JAV žemės ūkio departamento, daugiau, nei 80% JAV avokadų yra kilę iš Meksikos. Kanada yra didelė visko tiekėja – nuo ​​pupelių iki vyšninių pomidorų.

 

 Automobilių pramonė

 

 Vietos ir užsienio automobilių gamintojai sukūrė sudėtingą gamyklų tinklą visoje JAV, Kanadoje ir Meksikoje. Dalys ir nebaigtos transporto priemonės kartais kelis kartus kerta šiaurinę ar pietinę sieną, kol gamyba nesibaigia. Kiekvienai iš šių importo kirtimų, taikant 25 % tarifą, padidintų sąnaudas ir automobilių gamintojai, galbūt, padidintų kainas.

 

 Kai kurie Meksikos ir Kanados automobilių dalių gamintojai prideda viršvalandžius ir didina pristatymą į JAV, siekdami aplenkti tarifus, o kiti svarsto galimybę perkelti kai kurias gamybos linijas į JAV, sakė konsultacijų įmonės vadovas Ambrose'as Conroy'us Serafė.

 

 Plieno pramonė

 

 Plieno ir aliuminio sektorius jau seniai ragina apsisaugoti nuo pigių konkurentų užsienyje ir, tikriausiai, pritartų griežtiems tarifams.

 

 Vietos gamintojų koalicija praėjusią savaitę paragino Trumpą įvesti naujus muitus Meksikos plienui ir aliuminiui. Jie tvirtino, kad Meksikos gamintojai užtvindė JAV rinką plienu ir aliuminiu, pažeisdami Meksikos įsipareigojimus, todėl kelios JAV gamyklos buvo uždarytos arba neveikiančios.

 

 Vietiniai plieno pirkėjai, tikriausiai, laikytųsi priešingos nuomonės. Trumpo plieno tarifai per pirmąją kadenciją paskatino JAV kainų kilimą.

 

 Perkėlimas (galbūt)

 

 Jei didelė dalis gamybos nuolat persikeltų į namus, reaguodama į tarifus, tai atitiktų vieną iš Trumpo nustatytų mokesčių tikslų.

 

 Ekonomistai teigia, kad tai - didelis klausimas. Trumpas plačiai vertinamas, kaip taikantis tarifus kaip derybų įrankį ir nebūtinai, kaip nuolatinį įrankį, sakė buvęs JAV iždo pareigūnas, o dabar Užsienio santykių tarybos vyresnysis bendradarbis Bradas Setseris.

 

 Kyla energijos kainos

 

 Nauji tarifai gali padidinti JAV benzino, reaktyvinio kuro ir namų šildymo alyvos kainas, nes Kanada tiekia apie 60% JAV žalios naftos importo, o Meksika – dar 10%, sakė Gresseris.

 

 Kartu šis importas sudaro apie 30 % JAV naudojamos žalios naftos.

 

 Jis pridūrė, kad daugelis vietinių naftos perdirbimo gamyklų yra įsteigtos perdirbti Kanados naftą, o prisitaikyti nuo jos nėra paprasta.

 

 Brangesnė elektronika

 

 Trumpas paskelbė įvairius grasinimus dėl muitų Kinijai, įskaitant jo naujausią pasiūlymą nuo vasario 1 d. taikyti papildomą 10 % tarifą. Buitinė elektronika, įskaitant išmaniuosius telefonus ir nešiojamuosius kompiuterius, yra viena iš kategorijų, kurioms gali kilti kainos.” [1]

 

1. U.S. News: Trump's Tariff Plans Risk Jolting Economy --- Border chaos and higher prices for fruit, oil and other goods expected. Whalen, Jeanne.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 01 Feb 2025: A2.

The Dangers of the Ending Globalization: More Expensive Avocados. Oh My...

"Supply-chain upheavals. Pricier avocados. Higher heating bills. And a happier U.S. steel industry.

President Trump says he will levy 25% tariffs on goods this month from America's two top trade partners, Mexico and Canada, unless they both stop unauthorized migrants and drugs from entering the U.S. He also has threatened an additional 10% tariff on goods from China -- the nation's third-biggest trading partner -- accusing it of flooding the U.S. with fentanyl.

Trump also has described tariffs as a tool to protect and expand U.S. manufacturing.

Tariffs on the top three trading partners -- not including other levies the president promised on Friday -- would ripple through the economy, affecting everything from grocery prices to the steel and energy industries. Businesses are already making plans for how to respond.

Here is what to expect:

Confusion

North American businesses have gotten used to decades of tariff-free trade mandated by the North American Free Trade Agreement, and its 2020 successor, the United States Mexico Canada Agreement, USMCA.

So some confusion is likely to follow the imposition of tariffs. Long lines of trucks could back up on bridges in Texas and Detroit if the rules aren't immediately clear, delaying deliveries.

Higher inflation

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation showed that consumer prices rose 2.6% in December over a year earlier. A 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico would bring the inflation rate up to about 3.2%, keeping it well above the Fed's 2% target, according to Capital Economics, an analysis firm.

The Trump administration has played down the risk of inflation and said that higher tariffs would bring more revenue to federal coffers.

Pricier groceries

Grocery-price increases could be the inflation consumers notice first , economists say. Mexico provides about half of U.S. fresh produce imports and is a particularly important supplier in the winter, according to Ed Gresser, a former assistant U.S. trade representative now working at the Progressive Policy Institute. More than 80% of U.S. avocados come from Mexico, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department. Canada is a big supplier of everything from kidney beans to cherry tomatoes.

Auto industry

Domestic and foreign automakers have built a complex web of factories all over the U.S., Canada and Mexico. Parts and half-finished vehicles sometimes cross the northern or southern border several times before production is complete. Hitting each of those import crossings with a 25% tariff would raise costs and possibly cause automakers to raise prices.

Some auto-parts manufacturers in Mexico and Canada are adding overtime shifts and stepping up deliveries to the U.S. in efforts to get ahead of tariffs, while others are considering moving some manufacturing lines to the U.S., said Ambrose Conroy, chief executive of the consulting firm Seraph.

Steel-industry

The steel-and-aluminum sector has long called for protection against low-cost competitors overseas, and likely would applaud stiff tariffs.

A coalition of domestic producers last week urged Trump to impose new tariffs on Mexican steel and aluminum. They argued that Mexico's producers were flooding the U.S. market with steel and aluminum in violation of Mexican commitments, leading several U.S. plants to close or idle.

Domestic buyers of steel probably would have the opposite view. Trump's steel tariffs during his first term caused U.S. prices to rise.

Reshoring (maybe)

If a large chunk of manufacturing moves home permanently in response to tariffs, it would fulfill one of Trump's stated goals for the levies.

That's a big if, economists say. Trump is widely seen as using tariffs as a bargaining cudgel and not necessarily as a permanent tool, said Brad Setser, a former U.S. Treasury official and now a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Energy-price rises

New tariffs could raise U.S. prices for gasoline, jet fuel and home heating oil, because Canada supplies about 60% of U.S. crude-oil imports and Mexico an additional 10%, Gresser said.

Together, those imports make up about 30% of the crude oil used in the U.S.

Many domestic refineries are set up to process Canadian oil, and adjusting away from it isn't a simple task, he added.

Costlier electronics

Trump has issued a variety of tariff threats toward China, including his latest suggestion of an extra 10% tariff starting Feb. 1. Consumer electronics, including smartphones and laptops, are one category that could face price increases." [1]

1. U.S. News: Trump's Tariff Plans Risk Jolting Economy --- Border chaos and higher prices for fruit, oil and other goods expected. Whalen, Jeanne.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 01 Feb 2025: A2.