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2026 m. balandžio 19 d., sekmadienis

Did America Lose Its Will to Work?

 

“'In democratic peoples, where there is no hereditary wealth, everyone works to live, or has worked, or was born of people who worked. The idea of work as a necessary, natural and honest condition of humanity is therefore offered to the human mind on every side."

 

Thus wrote Alexis de Tocqueville in "Democracy in America" about the reverence with which this country's citizens in the 1830s regarded remunerative labor. The great French writer compared aristocratic societies, among whose elite work was regarded as a thing to be done for honor but not money, with the nascent bourgeois society of America, in which gainful employment was an unavoidable part of life. Half a century ago the average college-educated American would have endorsed Tocqueville's remark and marveled that anyone would think otherwise. In the 2020s many Americans evidence a deep confusion about the nature and purpose of work.

 

The weakening of America's Protestant work ethic, to use a contested but irreplaceable phrase, is a complicated story, but you could trace its beginnings to the 1960s. No one has chronicled that story more incisively than Nicholas Eberstadt of the American Enterprise Institute. In November Mr. Eberstadt published "America's Human Arithmetic," a collection of essays mainly on the subject of labor. The book includes a 2014 address about Lyndon B. Johnson's War on Poverty, that assortment of programs begun in the mid-1960s -- Head Start, Medicaid, expanded food stamps and many others.

 

Did the "war" bring victory? On the one hand, today's poor live vastly more prosperous lives by any material measure than the poor of the 1960s. Talk of citizens living over or under a "poverty line" is meaningless, Mr. Eberstadt shows, the de facto line having risen so dramatically upward -- a fact that has little to do with government transfer payments and almost everything to do with rapid economic growth in the postwar period.

 

On the other hand, antipoverty programs have left more or less the same proportion of the citizenry dependent on welfare and disinclined to join the workforce. So private-sector growth has made today's "poor" rich by comparison with their forerunners two generations ago, even as government antipoverty measures have ensured that today's poor, however well off by comparison, remain dependent and resistent to upward mobility. The War on Poverty hasn't only failed; it has weakened virtues its originators took for granted.

 

Three decades after the War on Poverty began, congressional Republicans passed, and a Democratic president signed, the most sweeping reform yet made to America's welfare state. The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 conditioned the most important forms of direct welfare payments on employment or the search for employment. Opponents predicted disaster. New York Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, formerly a critic of America's welfare state, predicted that his colleagues who voted for the bill would "take this disgrace to their graves." In fact, the reform succeeded. It moved millions off welfare rolls and into the labor market.

 

The law mainly reformed Aid to Families With Dependent Children, which it renamed Temporary Assistance for Needy Families. But expansions and liberalizations of other safety-net programs in succeeding years have negated the gains made by the 1996 law. Is a similar reform possible in 2026? Not a chance. The culture has radically changed.

 

In the mid-1990s, politicians and commentators could still speak of America's work ethic without apology. In the 2020s, America's cognoscenti constantly suggest something baneful in the bourgeois idea that gainful toil is virtuous -- movies romanticizing manipulated workers and vilifying rapacious corporate executives; intellectuals contending that the five-day, 40-hour work week abuses wage laborers; academics suggesting terms like "work ethic" are racist; journalists ready to portray every worker-management relationship as exploitative. A steady stream of freshly published books crosses my desk in which the authors insist that the American workplace jades employees and managers alike. Recall also the Covid-era glorification of "quiet quitting" -- in which employees simply stop doing the jobs they were contracted to do -- and the scores of think pieces claiming that Americans' "work-life balance" is less than optimal.

 

Note the tacit premise that "work" is opposed to "life." Evidence abounds that many Americans no longer consider gainful work a natural and necessary part of life. The sudden explosion of online sports betting bespeaks a nation of young men looking for ways to pocket cash for no work. The Supreme Court's 2018 decision in Murphy v. NCAA struck down a federal prohibition from 1992. By the time of that ruling the stigma attaching to sports betting had all but disappeared and widespread legalization seemed destined one way or another.

 

Pandemic-era measures that kept able-bodied men in their homes, bored and looking for ways to pocket a few bucks, enhanced the attractiveness of wagering on games. Americans bet $5 billion on sports in 2018. In 2024 they bet $150 billion. The sports-betting phenomenon reveals, if nothing else, the loss of any notion that income should bear some relation to a product or service rendered. The bettor produces no product or service for his winnings. Indeed, that is the draw -- money for nothing, or nothing that benefits anyone but the bettor. Such an ethic bothered previous generations. It bothers ours much less.

 

Ponder also the sudden ubiquity of advertisements for personal-injury law firms that promise to get their clients ample reward for damages. All over the country one encounters them on television, radio and billboards, with phone numbers leading to call centers that weed out weak claims. Have so many people really suffered bodily injury? An unknowing visitor to the U.S. in 2026 might be forgiven for wondering why more Americans aren't hobbling around in leg casts and wearing neck braces. Some personal-injury suits are right and just. Yet any moderately observant person can see that the industry, if that's the right term for it, has tapped into a massive market of Americans no longer ashamed to avoid work and rake in unearned cash.

 

We've known for years about the slow flight of working-age men from gainful employment. Mr. Eberstadt's "Men Without Work" (2016) documents in painful detail the moral and psychological costs of men leaving the labor force since the mid-1960s. New and frightening is the phenomenon of "disconnection" among the young, both male and female. About 1 in 7 Americans 18 to 24, according to a recent Rand study, are neither working nor looking for work. Many young people support a "universal basic income" -- a government payment to every American, regardless of income or employment status.

 

In 1996, 30 Democrats in the House and 25 in the Senate voted to reform welfare laws, and a Democratic president signed the bill. Today, approximately zero Democrats exhibit any interest in changes to welfare programs that don't involve spending more on them. Since the death of George Floyd and attendant protests, moreover, the nation's cultural arbiters decided not to question the premises of the Great Society and War on Poverty and instead to double down on welfare-state fundamentalism. If Republicans wish to do anything about America's declining work ethic, they will have to do it alone.

 

The public knows there's a problem. Stories about the theft of billions of dollars from Medicaid and other programs in Minnesota have revivified the idea that welfare programs dole out money to undeserving recipients and need reform. The fraud in Minnesota, perpetrated mostly by members of the state's Somali population, is stupendous in its scope and cost -- so much so that the center-left press, including the New York Times, felt obliged to cover the story. But similar stories of welfare fraud have emerged in Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and elsewhere, all covered by local media.

 

Millions of ordinary Americans, moreover, saw the bogus ways in which large parts of the public sector used the 2020-21 pandemic as an excuse not to work. They also see the major disincentives to productivity -- the exploding use of marijuana, thanks to the federal government's refusal to enforce its ban; the ease with which undeserving applicants may receive benefits from programs like Women, Infants and Children, among many others; and the channeling of ambitious and industrious college graduates into jobs that create no useful product or service: academic instructors in arcane subjects, sustainability advisers, diversity coordinators, development and communications managers for activist organizations, and on and on.

 

The rebuilding of America's work ethic is a politically saleable theme ready for use by any candidate brave enough to talk about a subject requiring a few sentences of nuanced explanation. But most Republicans avoid the subject, or address it, when they must, obnoxiously. Last summer, when GOP lawmakers passed a budget bill that imposed modest work requirements on able-bodied recipients of Medicaid payments, they defended the provision in one of two ways -- either by misleadingly claiming that illegal aliens' use of Medicaid dollars justified the reform, or by referring sardonically to "able-bodied men in their parents' basement playing videogames" or some such phrase. America's work-ethic deficit goes far beyond illegal migrants, who know they risk deportation if they get caught taking benefits, and dudes living with their parents.

 

It's true that any suggestion of reforming a federal welfare program to encourage its recipients to achieve greater financial independence will invite accusations of heartlessness, cruelty and racism. That's politics. A genuine concern for lives distorted by unreformed welfare programs can make those accusations sound empty.

 

Two further circumstances complicate a coherent GOP message on work and welfare. First, a small but influential part of the party rejects the conservative insight that public handouts tend to distort incentives to work. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, the most vocal exponent of this viewpoint, last year fulminated at the overwhelming majority of his fellow Republican lawmakers who voted for a modest stiffening of Medicaid eligibility rules. He calls Medicaid "working-class social insurance" and cheers its expansion. Aligned with Mr. Hawley are Vice President JD Vance and an influential coterie of socially right-wing but state-friendly conservatives.

 

Second, the Trump administration has made its chief policy objective the expulsion of illegal aliens. The president's political advisers show every sign of making that effort, for all its problems in execution, the central Republican message in this year's midterm elections. The great majority of Americans support the effort to deport illegal immigrants who have committed crimes other than crossing the border unlawfully, and probably a majority assents, in the abstract, to the defensibility of deporting all illegal aliens regardless of criminal record.

 

But in rounding up law-abiding migrant workers, the administration has found itself targeting men looking for work in Home Depot parking lots -- men who want to engage in gainful labor and who, whatever zealous Republicans might say in an election year, don't draw welfare checks. Hispanics -- overwhelmingly the object of zealous immigration enforcement -- consistently outperform all other groups in labor-force participation rates. The administration's highest priority, to put the point bluntly, appeared to be to deport guys who hang drywall, install shingles and generally contribute to economic growth.

 

None of this need stop GOP officeholders and -seekers from making the case for the Protestant work ethic in 2026 and beyond. Since the pandemic, American society has seemed to turn away from its presuppositional faith in remunerative labor. Our belief in work as, in Tocqueville's words, "a necessary, natural and honest condition of humanity" is no longer a tacit assumption but a disputed viewpoint. Elected leaders can't solve that problem by passing reforms to welfare laws, but they can force the public to consider the subject. That the public will reward them for it isn't certain, but a proud nation generally likes to be reminded of its old virtues.

 

---

 

Mr. Swaim writes the Journal's Unruly Republic column.” [A]

 

It is funny to see when both American culture and German culture alarm about sacredness of work for money at the same time when many young programmers and other highly educated office workers are kicked out of their jobs by AI. The idea is: You are not a victim. You are a lazy animal. Be ashamed. Keep quiet. The longer you keep quiet, the more money we will grab before leaving for New Zealand.

 

The narrative surrounding the "sacredness of work" is facing a significant contradiction in 2026, as high-skill office workers and programmers face displacement, according to data and reports from early 2026. The tension between urging productivity and the reality of AI-driven workforce restructuring has created anxiety, particularly for entry-level workers and recent graduates, who are bearing the brunt of these shifts.

 

Here is a breakdown of the current landscape based on these points:

 

1. The "Work is Sacred" Narrative vs. AI Displacement

 

    The Shift: By early 2026, AI has transitioned from a tool that assists developers to autonomous agents capable of completing tasks that previously required human juniors.

    The Reality for Programmers: Junior developer roles are vanishing, as AI agents can handle "grunt work" like debugging and documentation faster and cheaper.

    White-Collar Impact: While some experts suggest AI-related layoffs are partly "hype" or a correction after COVID-era hiring surges, others report that 37% of companies expect to replace jobs with AI by the end of 2026.

    The Psychological Toll: There is a growing sense of "survivor's guilt" and anxiety among professionals as they use AI tools to automate their own jobs, with some reporting "prompt fatigue" and burnout.

 

2. The Cultural "Shame" Narrative

 

    Targeting the Young: The narrative that younger workers are "lazy" or "entitled" is being used to mask structural economic changes.

 

    Displacement of Entry-Level: Companies are increasingly avoiding hiring recent graduates, citing a lack of experience, despite many of these workers possessing necessary tech skills.

    The "Victim" Rhetoric: The narrative that workers are responsible for their own obsolescence, rather than being victims of massive technological displacement, is a major source of frustration among the tech workforce.

 

3. "Grab Money and Leave" (Wealth Inequality Concerns)

 

    Increasing Anxiety: In the U.S., 35% of Gen X and 33% of millennials feel worse off than their parents, with AI job loss joining soaring housing costs as key factors.

    Profit Over People: The trend toward leaner, tech-ready workforces is driven by a desire for cost efficiency, often prioritizing shareholder value over workforce stability.

    Inequality: There is growing concern that AI will further concentrate wealth within a few tech companies, widening the gap between those who own the technology and those replaced by it.

 

4. The 2026 Outlook

 

    Leaner Teams: Companies that once hired 10 developers may now only need 4, who can use AI to do the work of the previous 10.

 

    Re-skilling Focus: The advice being given is to focus on soft skills—adaptability, critical thinking, and emotional intelligence—as technical tasks become increasingly automated.

    Survivor Guilt: The workers who remain often feel a sense of betrayal as they see colleagues laid off, creating a "culture of silence" and fear.

 

While some reports suggest that AI will create more jobs than it destroys, the short-term impact in 2026 is widely seen as disruptive, particularly for the younger, highly educated workforce.

 

The political backlash is coming anyway, no matter how “lazy” the young are.

 

A. America Loses Its Will to Work. Swaim, Barton.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Apr 2026: A11.  

Pasaulio naujienos: Šiaurės Korėja spartina branduolinę programą

„SEULAS. Iranui urano sodrinimui esant tvirtai prezidento Trumpo taikiklyje, Šiaurės Korėja sparčiai didina savo branduolinio arsenalo plėtros galimybes, didindama aktyvumą savo pagrindiniame branduoliniame objekte, įskaitant darbus įtariamoje naujoje sodrinimo vietoje.

 

Pchenjano pastarojo meto pažanga praėjusią savaitę išprovokavo Jungtinių Tautų atominės energetikos vadovo Rafaelio Grossi įspėjimą. Jis atkreipė dėmesį į padidėjusį aktyvumą Šiaurės Korėjos centriniame Jongbjono branduoliniame komplekse, įskaitant penkių megavatų reaktorių, perdirbimo įrenginį ir lengvojo vandens reaktorių.

 

„Visa tai rodo labai didelį pajėgumų padidėjimą“, – žurnalistams vizito Seule metu sakė JT Tarptautinės atominės energijos agentūros vadovas Grossi.

 

Remiantis nauja Vašingtono analitinio centro Strateginių ir tarptautinių studijų centro palydovinių vaizdų analize, Šiaurės Korėja, regis, taip pat baigė statyti įtariamą urano sodrinimo gamyklą Jongbjone. Apie šio objekto egzistavimą atkreipė dėmesį TATENA ir Pietų Korėjos pareigūnai.

 

Pasak pranešimo, atrodo, kad vyksta vidinės statybos. CSIS, o baigus darbą, papildomi pajėgumai „reikšmingai padidintų“ Šiaurės Korėjai prieinamų branduolinių ginklų skaičių.

 

Šiaurės Korėjos lyderis Kim Jong Unas pastaraisiais metais, plečiantis jo branduoliniam arsenalui, demonstravo didesnį pasitikėjimą savimi ir iššaukimą.

 

Praėjusį mėnesį Kim Jong Unas gyrėsi, kad Šiaurės Korėjos gebėjimas atsispirti išorės spaudimui ir atremti bet kokius priešo išpuolius yra aukštesnio lygio nei kituose pasaulio regionuose, ir išreiškė nesigailėjimą dėl branduolinio nusiginklavimo derybų su Trumpu nutrūkimo prieš daugiau nei septynerius metus.

 

„Dabartinė situacija aiškiai įrodo“, – sakė Kim Jong, – „kaip teisingas mūsų valstybės strateginis pasirinkimas ir sprendimas buvo atmesti priešo įkalbinėjimus ir tęsti savo branduolinio ginklo turėjimą“.

 

Vasario mėnesį vykusiame retai pasitaikančiame politiniame kongrese 42 metų diktatorius įsakė pareigūnams sparčiai kurti branduolinius ginklus, įskaitant antžeminius paleidimo įrenginius ir savo karines jūrų pajėgas.

 

Skaičiuojama, kad Pchenjanas turi net 50 branduolinių galvučių ir pakankamai skiliosios medžiagos, kad pagamintų dar apie 40, teigia Stokholmo tarptautinis taikos tyrimų institutas, analitinė grupė.

 

Karas Irane, dėl Vašingtono deklaruojamo tikslo sustabdyti Teherano branduolinę programą, sustiprino Kim Jong Uno požiūrį, kad tokie ginklai yra labai svarbūs jo režimo išlikimui. Pastaraisiais mėnesiais JAV taikėsi į nebranduolines valstybes, tokias, kaip Venesuela ir Kuba. JAV ir Izraelio smūgiai pražudė daugelį aukščiausių Irano vadovų ir smogė šaliai.

 

Priešingai, Trumpas ne kartą patvirtino savo gerus santykius su Kim Jong Unu ir sakė, kad tikisi dar kartą susitikti su Šiaurės Korėjos lyderiu.

 

Tačiau konfliktas su Iranu gali sustiprinti ilgalaikį Kim Jong Uno atmetimą JAV pasiūlymams pradėti nusiginklavimo derybas.

 

Kai kurie JAV analitikai ir politiniai lyderiai atkreipia dėmesį į Šiaurės Korėją, teigdami, kad Vašingtonas privalo sustabdyti Iraną prieš jam kuriant branduolinius ginklus.“ [1]

 

Žinoma, niekas nenori liesti branduolinės valstybės. Taisyklė yra tokia: „Neliesk, dvokia.“ Jei branduolinė valstybė puola aplinkines valstybes, kaip tai nuolat daro Izraelis, visi statymai negalioja, ji vis tiek bus kankinama dronais ir raketomis. Branduolinio ginklo pasirinkimas nėra absoliuti gynyba. Nors tokios sistemos, kaip „Geležinis kupolas“ yra labai veiksmingos – kai kurias dronų bangas jos atremia net 99 % – didžiulis atakų skaičius vis tiek gali peržengti gynybos ribas, kaip matyti 2026 m. balandžio mėn., kai Irano raketos padarė didelę žalą Izraelio miestuose, tokiuos,e kaip Petah Tikva.

 

1. World News: North Korea Hastens Nuclear Program. Martin, Timothy W.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Apr 2026: A7.

World News: North Korea Hastens Nuclear Program


“SEOUL -- With Iran's uranium enrichment firmly in President Trump's crosshairs, North Korea is quickly advancing its ability to expand its nuclear arsenal, upping activity at its main nuclear facility, including work on a suspected new enrichment site.

 

Pyongyang's recent advances drew a warning this past week from Rafael Grossi, the United Nations' atomic chief. He noted the increase in activity at North Korea's central Yongbyon nuclear complex, including at a five-megawatt reactor, a reprocessing unit and a light-water reactor.

 

"All of them point to a very serious increase in the capabilities," Grossi, head of the U.N.'s International Atomic Energy Agency, told reporters during a visit to Seoul.

 

North Korea also appears to have completed construction of a suspected uranium-enrichment plant at Yongbyon, according to new satellite imagery analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. The existence of the facility has been flagged by the IAEA and South Korean officials.

 

Internal construction appears ongoing, according to CSIS, and once finished, the extra capacity would "significantly increase" the number of nuclear weapons available to North Korea.

 

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has emerged more confident and defiant in recent years as his nuclear arsenal has expanded.

 

Last month, Kim boasted of how North Korea's ability to resist outside pressure and fend off any enemy attacks was at a higher level than other regions of the world -- and expressed no regret over the breakdown in nuclear-disarmament talks with Trump more than seven years ago.

 

"The present situation clearly proves," Kim said, "how just the strategic option and decision of our state were in rejecting the enemy's cajolery and perpetuating our nuclear possession."

 

At a rare political congress in February, the 42-year-old dictator ordered officials to rapidly develop nuclear weapons -- including ground-based launchers and its naval forces.

 

Pyongyang is estimated to possess as many as 50 nuclear warheads and enough fissile material to produce about 40 more, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, a think tank.

 

The war in Iran, in addition to Washington's stated goal of halting Tehran's nuclear program, have bolstered Kim's view that such weapons are critical for the survival of his regime. In recent months, the U.S. has targeted nonnuclear states such as Venezuela and Cuba. U.S. and Israeli strikes have killed many of Iran's top leadership and pummeled the country.

 

In contrast, Trump has repeatedly affirmed his good ties with Kim, and says he hopes to meet the North Korean leader again.

 

The Iranian conflict, however, could harden Kim's longstanding rejection of U.S. overtures to engage in disarmament talks.

 

Some U.S. analysts and political leaders point to North Korea in arguing that Washington must stop Iran before it develops nuclear weapons.” [1]

 

Sure, nobody wants to touch a nuclear state. The rule is: “Don’t touch, it stinks.” If the nuclear state attacks the states around it, like Israel does all the time, all bets are off, it gets pummeled by drones and missiles anyway. The nuclear choice is not an absolute defense. While systems like the Iron Dome are highly effective—with a 99% success rate against some drone waves—the sheer volume of attacks can still overwhelm defenses, as seen in April 2026 when Iranian missiles caused major destruction in Israeli cities like Petah Tikva.

 

1. World News: North Korea Hastens Nuclear Program. Martin, Timothy W.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Apr 2026: A7.

 

2026 m. balandžio 18 d., šeštadienis

Pasaulio naujienos: Kas mirksės, kai Hormūzo statymai kyla? --- Iranas demonstruoja lankstumą, o Trumpas siekia pranašumo, tęsdamas blokadą

 


„RIJADAS, Saudo Arabija – Laivybos iš Persijos įlankos sutrikimai kelia vis didesnį skausmą Amerikos arabų sąjungininkams, Iranui ir pasaulio ekonomikai.

 

Klausimas, kas labiausiai kenčia – ir kas pirmas mirksės.

 

Iki balandžio 13 d., kai Vašingtonas įvedė Irano uostų jūrų blokadą, Hormūzo sąsiaurio uždarymas buvo Irano režimo koziris. Teheranas per 40 dienų trukusį konfliktą pasipelnė iš savo naftos eksporto, tuo pačiu atimdamas iš Persijos įlankos valstybių svarbiausias pajamas ir įgyvendindamas planą surinkti didelius mokesčius iš nedaugelio praplaukiančių laivų.

 

Dabar, kai JAV ir Iranas palaiko trapias paliaubas, derėdamiesi dėl daug platesnio susitarimo dėl branduolinio klausimo, kuris sukėlė karą, laikas nebūtinai veikia Irano naudai.

 

Irano užsienio reikalų ministras Abbasas Araghchi suteikė atsikvėpimo deryboms ir paskatino staigų naftos kainų kritimą, penktadienį pareikšdamas, kad sąsiauris bus „visiškai atviras“ visą laiką, kol galioja paliaubos, kurios baigsis antradienį.

 

Tačiau laivyba bus leidžiama tik Irano kariuomenės nurodytu maršrutu, einančiu per inspekcijos zoną Irano vandenyse – tai toli gražu nereiškia, kad vandens kelias bus visiškai atidarytas, ir nebūtinai reiškia, kad Teheranas atsisako savo teisių rinkti pravažiavimo mokesčius.

 

Tuo tarpu JAV blokada Irano uostams „išliks visa apimtimi“, kol bus pasiektas išsamus susitarimas su Teheranu, netrukus po to laidoje „Truth Social“ sakė prezidentas Trumpas.

 

Irano ekonomika, kurios būklė buvo prasta prieš JAV ir Izraelio išpuolį vasario 28 d., nukentėjo nuo bombardavimo kampanijos ir pradeda jausti Amerikos blokados poveikį, nes mažėja naftos pajamos ir svarbus importas.

 

„Atrodo, kad Jungtinės Valstijos nori, jog Irano režimas paragauti savo vaistų“, – sakė Saudo Arabijos politinis analitikas Salmanas al-Ansari. „Blokada atima vienintelę kortą, kurią turi iraniečiai – Hormūzo sąsiaurį – nes verčia Irano režimą sėsti prie derybų stalo.“

 

Irano ir JAV derybininkai gali vėl susitikti ateinančiomis dienomis. dienų, o Trumpas teigė, kad šalys yra arti susitarimo, pagal kurį Vašingtonas užtikrintų Irano labai praturtinto urano atsargų, palaidotų po žeme po JAV bombardavimo praėjusią vasarą, saugojimą.

 

Teheranas neginčijo JAV blokados, tačiau tai nereiškia, kad jis to nedarys artimiausiomis dienomis, ypač jei derybos įstrigs ir paliaubos baigsis be reikšmingos diplomatinės pažangos.

 

Persijos įlankos valstybės, tokios kaip Saudo Arabija, tikrai nenori grįžimo prie kovų. Tikslūs Irano raketų ir dronų smūgiai padarė didelę žalą jų energetikos įrenginiams, tokiems kaip naftos perdirbimo gamyklos ir naftos chemijos gamyklos, tuo pačiu išeikvodami oro gynybos perėmėjų atsargas.

 

Jie pirmenybę teikia išlaikyti ekonominį spaudimą Iranui, tačiau ginklams tylint.

 

Tačiau tam tikru momentu, Irano ekonominei krizei stiprėjant, jam teks pasirinkti, ar sutikti su tinkamu Hormūzo sąsiaurio atidarymu, prarandant derybų svertą ir ambicijas rinkti mokesčius, ar mesti iššūkį JAV blokadai ir rizikuoti grįžti prie visaverčio karo. karas.

 

Irano vėl kurstomas regioninis karas dar labiau izoliuotų Teheraną likusiame pasaulyje, nes Europos ir Azijos ekonomikos būtų dar labiau suspaustos.

 

„Mintis, kad viena šalis gali kontroliuoti Hormūzo sąsiaurį, yra absurdiška visoms pasaulio šalims“, – sakė Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg, Persijos įlankos bendradarbiavimo tarybos, kuri vienija šešias Persijos įlankos monarchijas, generalinio sekretoriaus padėjėjas politiniams ir derybų reikalams.

 

„Mintis, kad Irano ir Saudo Arabijos šalys yra labiau atsparios skausmui, nei Iranas, atrodo teisingas tik todėl, kad šiuo metu jos tiesiogiai nepatiria tolesnių išpuolių prieš ypatingos svarbos infrastruktūrą“, – teigė Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, analitinio centro „Bourse & Bazaar“ generalinis direktorius. „Iranas mano, kad pakankamai ilguoju laikotarpiu jis vis dar galės toleruoti daugiau skausmo nei jo regioniniai kaimynai ir JAV. Aš tiesiog nesuprantu, kaip po aštuonerių metų maksimalaus spaudimo sankcijų bet koks JAV ekonominio spaudimo didinimas per ateinančias kelias savaites reikšmingai pakeistų skaičiavimus.“

 

Artimiausios savaitės parodys, ar Teherano prielaidos yra teisingos.

 

„Konfliktas nebėra susijęs su tuo, kuri pusė gali smogti daugiau fiksuotų taikinių“, – sakė Normanas Roule'as, kuris nuo 2008 iki 2017 m. dirbo pagrindiniu JAV žvalgybos bendruomenės pareigūnu Irano klausimais. „Dabar vyksta kova dėl to, kas gali išlaikyti regiono prekybos sistemos veikimą, o kas gali ją sutrikdyti.“ [1]

 

1. World News: As Hormuz Stakes Rise, Who Will Blink? --- Iran signals flexibility, while Trump seeks an upper hand by continuing blockade. Trofimov, Yaroslav.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Apr 2026: A6.