"The Inflation Reduction Act will
reshape the physical and economic landscape of the United States over the next
decade, including in ways that might surprise a lot of people.
Anyone keen to understand how should
look at Brookfield Renewable Partners’ recent investment of up to $2
billion in Scout Clean Energy and Standard Solar. B.R.P. is a
vehicle of Brookfield Asset Management, a leading global asset management firm,
with around $800 billion of assets under management, and it purchased two
American developers and owner-operators of wind and solar power-generating
facilities. This took place six weeks after President Biden signed the I.R.A.
into law.
The I.R.A. will help accelerate the
growing private ownership of U.S. infrastructure and, in particular, its
concentration among a handful of global asset managers like Brookfield. This is
taking the United States into risky territory. The consequences for the public
at large, whose well-being depends on the quality and cost of a host of
infrastructure-based services, from energy to transportation, are unlikely to
be positive.
A common belief about both the
I.R.A. and 2021’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, President Biden’s
other key legislation for infrastructure investment, is that they represent a renewal of President
Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal infrastructure programs of the 1930s. This is
wrong. The signature feature of the New Deal was public ownership: Even as
private firms carried out many of the tens of thousands of construction
projects, almost all of the new infrastructure was funded and owned publicly.
These were public works. Public ownership of major infrastructure has
been an American mainstay ever since.
Mr. Biden’s laws will radically
overhaul this culture. Informed by what Brian Alexander, a writer for The
Atlantic, in 2017 described as a
profound recent change in philosophy among U.S. policymakers about “how to build
and maintain America’s stuff,” the modus operandi of both statutes is
principally to subsidize and catalyze private-sector infrastructure investment.
Such a subsidy was explicitly factored into the aforementioned Brookfield
investment in solar and wind power.
So it would be truer to say that in
political-economic terms, Mr. Biden, far from assuming Roosevelt’s mantle, has
actually been dismantling the Rooseveltian legacy. The upshot will be a
wholesale transformation of the national landscape of infrastructure ownership
and associated service delivery.
It is true, as many have observed, that the
I.R.A. allows for public investment in and ownership of clean-energy assets
through its direct-pay provisions, which enable entities without tax
liabilities, including nontaxable bodies such as public agencies, to benefit
from the tax credits it makes available. But this presupposes that public
entities are actually willing and institutionally capable of taking advantage
of those provisions, which is anything but a given.
It took over two years of dogged
campaigning for supporters of publicly owned U.S. solar and wind power to
achieve a relatively modest victory, the requirement that the New York Power
Authority build renewable
capacity if private-sector developers fall behind state targets for renewable
penetration. If revivified public ownership cannot be readily effectuated in
New York, of all places, it will be an extremely tall order elsewhere in the
country.
Asset management firms are likely to
step in. A 2016 article in this paper examined
fledgling asset manager investment in U.S. municipal water systems and presciently
described it as the “leading edge of the industry’s profound expansion into
public services.” At that time, the industry globally featured fewer than 100
infrastructure funds (which are the main vehicle through which asset managers
invest in infrastructure). By 2020, there were over 250, the
total amount of investor capital held in such funds for investment in
infrastructure having quintupled since 2009.
Other parts of the world have been
experiencing large-scale asset manager investment in infrastructure for
decades. Led by Macquarie, an Australian financial services group that is the
sector pioneer, asset managers began investing substantially
in Asian and European infrastructure in the early 1990s. Today, in countries
such as South Korea and Britain, infrastructure funds are the leading owners of
major infrastructure assets in a range of sectors, among them energy,
transportation and water.
The story of asset-manager-led infrastructure investment is
overwhelmingly a negative one. Asset managers are focused on optimizing returns
on the assets they control by maximizing the income they generate while
minimizing operating and capital costs. Many users of infrastructure that has
come under asset manager ownership have suffered, as service rates have risen
quickly and service quality has deteriorated.
Nowhere is this better illustrated than in Britain. There,
numerous types of infrastructure have come substantially under asset manager
ownership. This has led to consistently negative outcomes in, for example, care facilities, schools and water supply. Many
observers have concluded that essential infrastructure and asset manager
ownership simply don’t mix.
And in South Korea, Macquarie’s
eight-year investment in Metro Line 9, part of the Seoul subway system,
involved a bitter spat with the metropolitan government over a proposal to hike
fares by nearly 50 percent.
That led Macquarie and other shareholders in 2013 to unceremoniously sell their
stake, in what commuters came to call the subway line from hell.
Local critics charged Macquarie
with taking excessive profits without assuming any risk, an accusation that has
been a consistent drumbeat accompanying the phenomenon of asset manager
infrastructure investment around the world. Macquarie said that
it is committed to its operations in Korea and that its Korean infrastructure
fund is a “passive financial investor” that has cooperated fully with the city
of Seoul.
The story has been much the same
when housing is owned by asset managers. There have been allegations of skimped
maintenance and egregious eviction practices in some areas. Such outcomes have
been reported in Spain, for example, a notable
hot spot of asset manager investment in housing since the global financial
crisis, by a series of academic researchers.
If the United States has been a
relative laggard in asset-manager-owned infrastructure, it has been in the
vanguard of asset-manager-owned housing.
The detrimental impact of asset
manager ownership of housing appears to be a general problem, but it is not
evenly distributed. In the United States, for instance, the Sun Belt has been
severely affected; increased eviction rates have been the most troubling outcome.
Fred Tuomi, a veteran of asset manager investment in U.S. single-family
housing, once described the region’s
housing market as an asset manager “strike zone.”
The Biden administration has taken a
step freighted with peril by hitching the future of U.S. infrastructure
provision to the private sector in general — and (by implication, if not
intent) to asset management firms in particular. Brookfield and its peers will
be undoubted beneficiaries. It seems unlikely that the American people also
will.
Brett Christophers is a professor at
Uppsala University in Sweden. His most recent book is “Our Lives in Their
Portfolios: Why Asset Managers Own the World.””
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