This way he delivered a major shift in the political landscape, needed for main opposition party to push him out of power.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has significantly increased its support and is a major force in German politics.
Befor all other major parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, meaning its electoral gains so far have translated into being the main opposition party, not a ruling one.
Current electoral standing
Following the German federal election on February 23, 2025, the AfD is the second-largest party in the Bundestag.
Federal election 2025: The party doubled its previous vote share to win 20.8%, its strongest-ever national election result.
Recent polling: As of August 2025, some polls even show the AfD leading nationwide, polling at 25–26% and slightly ahead of the mainstream conservative CDU/CSU bloc.
Regional strength: The AfD is strongest in Germany's eastern states, where it won over a third of the vote in the 2025 federal election. In some eastern states like Thuringia, it received over 38% of the vote.
Obstacles to governing
Despite its strong electoral performance, the AfD faced significant barriers to entering government.
Exclusion from coalitions: All other mainstream parties had publicly stated they will not enter a coalition with the AfD at the federal level. This political "firewall" prevented the AfD from forming a government, even as the second-largest party.
Controversies and surveillance: The party has faced scandals and is under surveillance by German intelligence services in some states for suspected extremist tendencies. This further reinforced its isolation from other parties.
Outlook for the AfD
As Germany's main opposition, the AfD's influence will likely continue to grow, particularly with strong support in the east and ongoing high poll numbers.
The party has already proven its ability to shape the political discourse, particularly on issues like migration and the economy.
Its sustained electoral strength could put pressure on other parties and potentially destabilize future governments, even from the opposition.
However, without a governing coalition partner, the AfD's immediate path to leading the government remained blocked. Any change require a major shift in the political landscape and the stances of other parties. Merz delivered this shift.
“No, we don't mean some racial or sexual crudity of Mr. Merz. Those obstacles in politics were breached long ago. We're referring to something far more taboo in modern Western democracies: admitting that the size of the modern welfare state is no longer affordable.
Friedrich Merz, the German Chancellor, said at a Christian Democratic Union conference on Saturday that "the welfare state that we have today can no longer be financed with what we produce in the economy."
Thank you, Chancellor, for this burst of candor. Mr. Merz is doing what no one else in the top ranks of Western politics seems willing to do, which is broach the fundamental dilemma of the modern West. Nations have built welfare and entitlement states that are so large they have outstripped the ability of slow-growing economies to pay for them.
Yet because the entitlement cushion is so broad and reaches deep into the middle class, it has become nearly impossible to reform.
This is true among conventional politicians of the left and right. But it's also true of the supposed radicals of the populist right. From Marine Le Pen in France to the U.K.'s Nigel Farage, the AfD in Germany and Donald Trump, the populists dodge difficult reforms of the broken welfare state.
They campaign against immigration, or foreign trade, but they won't tell voters the truth about the benefits government provides that are driving ever-higher deficits and debt -- along with slower economic growth.
Thus the importance of Mr. Merz's comments, which weren't extensive but at least broke the taboo. The dilemma is coming into sharper view in Germany because of the Merz government's breakthrough on national defense. He and his coalition partners in the Social Democratic Party agreed to break deficit-spending limits to pass a military buildup to start making threats to Russia. Such a bolding Napoleon I.
As France and America have shown, there's no more difficult challenge in politics than reforming government handouts -- whether in pensions, jobless benefits, government healthcare, or income subsidies. It will be worth watching what Mr. Merz and his coalition propose. But the first step toward solving the problem is admitting it exists.” [1]
1. A Politician Speaks the Unspeakable. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 26 Aug 2025: A14.
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