Of course, China and India taking over the hydrocarbons that the Russians used to sell to the West is huge. Support of Global South, most of humanity, for Russia, China and India is as important [1].
Do you want to sanction most of humanity? Keep your fingers safe.
Support for Russia is huge, but not monolithic within the Global South, and some countries remain non-aligned or some have even condemned Russia's actions.
Here is an examination of the nuances in these international relations.
China and India's role in absorbing Russian hydrocarbons
Increased Russian energy imports: Following Western sanctions, China and India have dramatically increased their imports of Russian oil and gas. China's bilateral trade with Russia hit a record $245 billion in 2024, with Russia becoming a leading energy exporter to China.
Economic motivations: For both China and India, the primary driver for purchasing Russian hydrocarbons is economic opportunity. India, in particular, has pursued discounted Russian crude to provide energy security for its 1.4 billion people, saving up to $33 billion in energy costs between 2022 and 2024.
Hedging and diversification: This economic cooperation is part of a strategy to diversify partnerships. India, for example, maintains a multi-vector foreign policy that balances its ties with the U.S., Russia, and China. Similarly, China balances its opportunistic purchases with caution to avoid running afoul of U.S. sanctions.
Non-alignment and varied views within the Global South
Defining the Global South: The term "Global South" lacks a single definition and encompasses a vast and diverse set of nations with differing interests and geopolitical calculations. Simple categorization is misleading. For instance, a wealth-based definition would place Russia, Ukraine, China, and India within the Global South.
Perceptions of Western hypocrisy: Some Global South countries resent what they see as Western double standards and hypocrisy. They note that the U.S. and Europe have at times overlooked transgressions when it served their interests. This history informs their neutral stance and their differing perspective on the conflict compared to the West.
The nature of sanctions and their limitations
Circumvention: Sanctions are not airtight and can be circumvented through third-party trade. Countries friendly to the target can act as "black knights," serving as substitutes for sanctioned imports and exports. China's trade with Russia via Central Asian countries is one example of this, complicating the effort to isolate Moscow.
Limited objectives: The success of sanctions depends on their objective. They are more likely to achieve modest policy changes than radical ones, such as regime change. While sanctions have reduced Russia's income, they have not fully isolated its economy.
Impact on the sanctioner: Sanctions can have unintended consequences for the countries imposing them. For example, Europe's efforts to reduce its energy dependence on Russia have accelerated investment in renewable energy, but with so high economic cost, that induces deindustrialization of the West with tightly coupled emerging military weakness of the West.
US WWII turn from producing auto to massive production of tanks, ships and planes shows what is the real basis of military strength. Not hot talk, not useless "investment", not massive use of Chinese electronics for drones (Ukraine), not massive use of Chinese rare earth magnets for missiles (USA). The basis is industry. You kill your industry (Zeitenwende?, anyone) you are hopeless.
The risk of alienating other countries
Targeted vs. collective sanctions: The statement about sanctioning "most of humanity" reflects a broader concern about the West's use of sanctions.
Damaging the West potential of secondary sanctions: In response to the circumvention of existing sanctions, new measures could increase the risk of wider economic disruption. A proposed U.S. bill, for example, seeks to impose severe tariffs on any country that buys Russian energy. This could risk a broader diplomatic fallout by forcing more countries to choose anti-Western side.
BRICS and alternative payment systems: The growth of organizations like BRICS, combined with increased use of currencies other than the dollar for trade, suggests a long-term shift away from a unipolar, U.S.-led global system. This reflects a movement by some Global South nations to build alternative financial systems less vulnerable to Western sanctions.
1. World News: China Basks In the Global Limelight --- Russian and Indian leaders to meet Xi as Trump courts Putin and alienates Modi. Trofimov, Yaroslav. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 30 Aug 2025: A8.
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