This query presents a dramatic, unanswerable question mixing the progress of space exploration with theoretical existential risks. The question of whether we can reach Mars before an AI apocalypse or human self-destruction is a philosophical one. However, based on the information available, here is a breakdown of the status of Mars missions, the nature of the risks, and the inherent uncertainty in projecting either timeline.
Progress toward Mars colonization
SpaceX, with its Starship rocket, is the most prominent private entity aiming to make humanity a "multiplanetary species" by establishing a self-sustaining city on Mars. It is huge, potentially reusable, so it could make transportation of humans to Mars more practical, or put more surveillance and destruction tools into space around Earth, that AI or some stupid people could use to completely destroy us here, or both.
Recent advancements: On August 27, 2025, Starship successfully completed its 10th test flight, with the upper stage deploying mock satellites and achieving a controlled splashdown. While earlier tests in 2025 suffered setbacks, this flight was a significant step forward.
Mars timeline: Following this success, SpaceX's latest timeline for Mars missions is:
2026: First uncrewed Starship missions to Mars.
Early 2030s: First crewed missions to the Martian surface.
2050: Goal of a self-sustaining colony, though many experts view this as highly ambitious.
Major hurdles: Getting to Mars requires overcoming immense challenges beyond just a working rocket:
Refueling: Multiple Starship launches will be needed to refuel a tanker in orbit before a Mars trip can begin.
Logistics: The mission requires sending vast amounts of cargo, habitats, and supplies ahead of the crew.
In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU): Colonists will need to be able to "live off the land" by extracting resources like water and creating propellant.
Human health and psychology: Long-term exposure to space radiation and microgravity is damaging to the human body. The long travel time also presents severe psychological challenges from isolation.
Existential threats from AI and human "stupidity"
These threats exist on a parallel, uncertain timeline that is not directly correlated with spaceflight development.
Existential risk from AI
The risk: The possibility of "artificial general intelligence" (AGI) surpassing human intelligence and becoming uncontrollable is a concern for some researchers. This "alignment problem" could lead to humanity's extinction if the AI's goals do not align with human values.
Expert opinions: Many prominent figures in the field, including OpenAI's Sam Altman and Geoffrey Hinton, have expressed concern about this risk. Some studies have found that AI experts estimate an at least 5% chance of superintelligent AI leading to human extinction.
The timeline: The timeline for AGI and its potential dangers is unknown. Experts disagree on whether such intelligence is even possible, let alone when it could arise.
Counterarguments: Other research argues that AI extinction is an immensely challenging outcome and that humans would have time to respond and mitigate threats.
Existential risk from human "stupidity"
The risk: This category covers a variety of human-caused threats, including nuclear war, extreme climate change, and engineered pandemics.
Cascading effects: A 2023 study identified several interconnected "polycrisis" threats, such as "climate cataclysm" and "synthetic biology in the wild," that could lead to societal collapse and extinction.
Motivation for Mars: The potential for these threats is a major reason proponents like Elon Musk cite for establishing an off-world colony. They argue that becoming a multiplanetary species is the ultimate insurance policy for human survival.
The answer: No one knows
It is impossible to definitively state which milestone will be reached first.
Comparing different "futures": We are comparing a technological timeline—the engineering challenges of building and launching rockets—with a philosophical timeline—the chaotic and unpredictable nature of human-caused disasters.
Dependent vs. independent timelines: The pace of AI development and the likelihood of human self-destruction are not tied to the pace of spaceflight. Progress in one area does not speed up or slow down the other.
The paradox: In a pessimistic view, the very hubris and competitiveness that drives an accelerated race to Mars (e.g., between tech magnates) could also be the same "stupidity" that triggers an unrelated, more immediate catastrophe. Conversely, advancements made in creating an off-world colony—like closed-loop ecological systems—could potentially offer solutions to a dying planet Earth.
“SpaceX pulled off a smoother test launch of its Starship rocket, managing a more complete mission after setbacks earlier this year.
The Starship spacecraft flew through space after launching from the company's South Texas complex Tuesday around 7:30 p.m. Eastern time. The vehicle successfully deployed a batch of dummy Starlink satellites and re-entered Earth's atmosphere, facing intense heat and forces, before splashing down in the Indian Ocean.
The mission marked the 10th launch of Starship since SpaceX -- formally known as Space Exploration Technologies -- began testing the 403-foot-tall rocket in 2023 -- and a rebound after a series of explosions and mishaps cut short several previous test flights.
SpaceX founder Elon Musk has much riding on the rocket, envisioned to one day carry satellites, scientific devices and, eventually, astronauts.
For now, the company is pushing to show it can consistently fly Starship and experiment with its design. SpaceX set up Tuesday's mission to stress-test parts of the Starship spacecraft, seeking to give engineers information to continue developing the vehicle.
One example: SpaceX earlier said it had removed tiles on the spacecraft's heat shield to test parts of the vehicle while it re-entered Earth's atmosphere.
SpaceX planned to launch the vehicle Sunday evening but stood down because of a liquid-oxygen leak in the ground infrastructure that supports the rocket. A potential Monday launch was called off because of weather conditions.
Musk wants both the Starship booster and spacecraft to be fully and rapidly reusable, more akin to an airplane than a traditional rocket. SpaceX has made major strides with reusability with its workhorse Falcon 9 rockets, which are powered by boosters that can be used many times.
SpaceX faces self-imposed and external deadlines with the much larger Starship. Musk wants to launch an uncrewed version of the vehicle to Mars next year but has said meeting that goal will be tough.” [1]
1. SpaceX Launches Rocket After Several Setbacks. Maidenberg, Micah. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 27 Aug 2025: B2.
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