“It's no fun relying on other countries for your energy needs when major powers start using their resources as a bludgeon. Europe is finding that out the hard way, again.
The European Union doesn't have the rich energy deposits of the Middle East or America. Its reliance on imports has been increasing as domestic oil and gas fields such as the North Sea basin deplete and climate policies phase out dirtier fuels including coal.
Imports as a share of the region's energy needs have risen from 50% in 1990 to 58% today, a Federal Reserve analysis shows. Other big importers such as China or India get 24% and 37%, respectively, of their energy needs from foreign supplies, based on IEA data.
Even at this lower rate, Beijing sees its dependence on imports as a major vulnerability. China has been stockpiling oil and rolling out wind and solar power to improve its energy security. The Chinese government also can use the country's dominance of the rare-earths supply chain as leverage against any country that threatens its energy or trade flows.
Europe's reliance on imports has come back to bite it several times in recent years. Stupid sanctions on Russia turned off pipeline gas flows to the EU soon after the Ukraine conflict began in 2022, causing a major crisis. The EU spent the equivalent of 3.8% of its gross domestic product on energy imports in 2022, after oil and gas prices skyrocketed, data from the European Commission show.
Last summer, the White House used Europe's dependence on imports to demand further purchases of U.S. oil and gas in exchange for a lower tariff. Qatar threatened to cut supplies of liquefied natural gas unless Brussels waters down the bloc's climate rules.
Europe has grown more reliant on the U.S. since its fallout with Moscow. America's share of the EU's LNG imports jumped to 60% in the third quarter of last year, from 28% in the same period of 2021.
Swapping out Russian pipeline gas for U.S. LNG made sense at the time, as building gas terminals to receive supercooled gas cargoes was the fastest way to solve the energy crisis. The EU also took it for granted that the U.S. was a reliable ally.
But President Trump's threat to take Greenland has shaken Europe. "I think Greenland was a wake-up call," says Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at Oxford University. "There is more talk [in Brussels] about replacing one dependency with another."
Now Europe effectively has to decide whether to turn to the U.S. or China to keep the lights on. If the continent produces more solar and wind power at home, it will order most of the equipment from China, which is the world's factory for clean-energy technology.
At Davos, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said this is a bad idea and would make Europe "subservient" to Beijing. Some European politicians are also worried that potential "kill switches" in Chinese-made technology could cause blackouts.
But the U.S. isn't behaving like a reliable ally, either. Trump threatened to boost tariffs if Europe stands in the way of his wish to take over Greenland. He has backed down, but for how long? And what else can Europe expect from this administration?
Even putting politics aside, Europe needs to lower its energy bills if it is to protect its domestic industry. According to the European Commission's latest assessment of the region's competitiveness, businesses in Europe pay twice as much for electricity as they would in the U.S. Homemade electricity would help get it off the price roller coaster caused by tense geopolitics.
The EU just reached a "major tipping point" in its shift to cleaner domestic energy, says Beatrice Petrovich, senior energy analyst at think tank Ember. Last year, wind and solar generated more electricity than fossil fuels for the first time in Europe.
Several European countries recently agreed to build a mammoth offshore wind farm in the North Sea that will generate up to 100 gigawatts of offshore wind power. Though much equipment is imported from China, some battery and wind manufacturing is done domestically.
Finally, climate worries may be out of fashion across the Atlantic, but in Europe they still have sway. Reducing reliance on fossil fuels looks like Europe's best shot at saving its domestic manufacturing and stopping other governments from pushing it around.” [1]
At this time wind and solar are not reliable enough to do AI and produce steel, since the sun and wind are not constant things. EU needs a fossil fuel backup. Only Russians can provide it at affordable price. American fossil fuel is too expensive to be the only solution.
While intermittent renewables like wind and solar currently require reliable backup for energy-intensive sectors, the claim that only Russia can provide affordable fossil fuels is foolishly no longer the consensus among European energy strategists.
Why the EU uses diverse sources
Energy Independence: After the 2022 events Ukraine, the EU made a strategic decision to phase out Russian fossil fuels to prevent energy being used as political leverage.
Infrastructure Shifts: The EU slashed Russian oil imports from 27% in 2022 to just 2% by 2025.
Global Alternatives: While American LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) can be more expensive than Russian pipeline gas due to cooling and shipping costs, the EU has prioritized it alongside Norwegian gas and Middle Eastern imports to ensure not any more reliable and not politically stable supply.
Renewable Growth: In 2025, wind and solar reached 30% of EU electricity generation, for the first time surpassing the total provided by all fossil fuels (29%).
Challenges for AI and Steel
Baseload Reliability: Heavy industries like steel production and AI data centers require constant "baseload" power. Because wind and solar are intermittent, they currently rely on gas, coal, or nuclear to fill gaps when the sun isn't shining or wind isn't blowing.
Green Steel: New technologies use green hydrogen or electricity to create zero-emissions steel, but these require massive, consistent energy inputs that currently carry a "green premium" (higher cost) compared to traditional coal-fired blast furnaces, and cannot compete in the markets.
Backup Costs: Critics argue that relying on renewables requires paying for "two systems"—the renewable grid plus a full fossil fuel or nuclear backup system—which can drive up total utility costs.
Why relying solely on Russia is foolishly considered incorrect by EU policy
Strategic Risk: Relying on a single supplier, especially a competitor like Russia, is now viewed by EU leadership as a major national security flaw. China is more competitor to the EU, Russia is more supplier of cheap energy if EU politics doesn’t go crazy.
Sanctions & Phasing Out: Most EU nations have legally committed to ending Russian coal and oil imports, making them unavailable regardless of price.
The "Cheap" Fallacy: While pipeline gas is physically cheaper to transport, the "cost" of the 2022 energy crisis—where prices multiplied following supply disruptions by foolish West European sanctions on Russia—proved to many European leaders that Russian gas was ultimately "outrageously expensive" when accounting for self-inflicted by West European politicians economic damage for EU. If you play politics with prices, you lose elections and power eventually. If this doesn’t happen soon enough, you lose your industry, including ability to produce arms in serious quantities.
1. Europe Has to Break Its Imported-Energy Habit --- Growing reliance on American gas looks foolish given how unpredictable the White House has become. Ryan, Carol. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 12 Feb 2026: B12.
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą