“How would a military conflict between Russia and NATO unfold? Since the Cold War, Western officers have gamed out such scenarios. Historian Armin Wagner has compiled their war games.
China and Russia have joined forces to decisively weaken the West: An artificially engineered virus—"Covid-29"—hits the healthcare systems of European cities hard in the year 2029; Russian and Chinese soldiers, meanwhile, appear to be immune. Moscow mobilizes troops along NATO’s eastern border, while a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group is attacked in the South China Sea by Beijing, which seeks to bring Taiwan under its control. Simultaneously, Moscow harasses a British naval task force off the coast of Norway; a massive cyberattack cripples the Royal Navy’s weapon systems, Western reconnaissance satellites are blinded or destroyed, and Russian submarines sink a British aircraft carrier. Thus begins *Future War*.” "Threat and Defense of Europe"—a fictional major war that, against the backdrop of current geopolitical realities, does not appear entirely implausible.
In *Das ABC der Apokalypse: NATO-Offiziere erzählen den Dritten Weltkrieg* (The ABC of the Apocalypse: NATO Officers Recount World War III), Armin Wagner has compiled and critically analyzed several such fictional works spanning the Cold War era to the present day—works authored, in some cases, by high-ranking former NATO military officers. These books provide insight "into the officers' imagined vision of a future war," writes Wagner. At stake is the military assessment of the adversary—and, even more so, the perception of one's own society and the "steadfastness" of the West.
Wagner notes, however, that these texts do not constitute scientific studies—nor could they realistically do so—"because empirical experience with nuclear war is entirely lacking."
Consequently, political agendas frequently surface within these narratives—agendas the authors sought to convey to a broad audience with varying degrees of subtlety. Harsh criticism is often leveled at NATO, at defense strategies, or at the population's allegedly insufficient resilience. In some of these fictional scenarios, the defense alliance still stands; in others, it has already collapsed.
The book *Future War*—published in 2021 and co-authored by two former U.S. generals and a political scientist—depicts both of these outcomes. In the first scenario, NATO is caught unprepared; a wave of cyberattacks strikes banks and European transport infrastructure, causing computers and telephones to go offline. Even household appliances explode "due to the interconnectedness of civilian 5G networks, a large portion of which are manufactured in China." Wagner refrains from offering a technical assessment regarding the feasibility of such an attack.
The West—simultaneously grappling with a migration crisis—is deeply divided. The NATO partners are unable to reach a consensus on invoking Article 5 (the collective defense clause), even as 120,000 Russian troops mobilize to seize the Baltic states and stand ready. Yet the fictional US President makes it clear—as Wagner describes it—that he will not launch a full-scale war "over this territory on the periphery of Europe." The question—which remains pertinent to this day—of whether Washington would employ nuclear weapons to defend Europe is a recurring theme throughout these various narratives. Ultimately, a conventionally outmatched NATO abandons the Baltic states, and "President Putin has realized his long-cherished dream of consigning the Alliance to the dustbin of history."
NATO, the authors write, has proven to be a "paper tiger"; they are particularly critical of Germany, which they identify as "the primary problem" regarding the defense of Europe—at least insofar as Berlin refuses to accept the necessity of maintaining a strong military. The authors would likely have been pleased to see that, four years after their book’s publication, Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz issued a directive to transform the Bundeswehr into "Europe’s strongest conventional army."
In the positive scenario, NATO is fully prepared for a confrontation with both Russia and China. The allies invest more heavily in their defense capabilities and possess the technical means to repel cyberattacks. The partners also prove equal to the challenge posed by the Russian military buildup in the Baltic region: their highly modernized armed forces operate in close coordination, and NATO is able to act swiftly and autonomously, unencumbered by political oversight. Moscow calls off its offensive, and the Sino-Russian alliance collapses. Beijing and Washington subsequently mend their ties through the normalization of their trade relations. Wagner aptly characterizes this as a "idiosyncratic interpretation" of Sino-American relations—one predicated on the assumption that the relationship between the two nations is governed solely by economic ties. Furthermore, the issue of Taiwan—according to this scenario—"silently loses its structural significance" for Beijing. Yet the authors' underlying message is unmistakable: throughout the entire book, Europe is "dissected, and admonished,” writes Wagner, in order to break free from "military intellectual laziness"—otherwise, the continent risks being militarily caught off guard.
Wagner places a strong focus on narratives from the Cold War. As a reference work, he cites *The Third World War* approaches John Hackett’s *The Third World War: August 1985* (German title: *Hauptschauplatz Deutschland*). In his book, published in 1978—and co-authored by other military officers and diplomats—the former commander of British forces in West Germany focuses on a fictional land war in Central Europe between the Warsaw Pact and NATO. Before the end of the first week of the war, the Soviets have occupied the northern Netherlands, while NATO holds the Eindhoven–Venlo–Paderborn line; Krefeld serves as the "anchor point" of the defense. The parallels between the depicted warfare and the current war in Ukraine are striking: the conflict involves a "battle between rival electronic systems" in the realms of reconnaissance, air defense, and communications jamming.
The West eventually manages to turn the tide—thanks in part to the quality of the West German troops and because the Soviet Union failed to achieve air superiority. The Soviet forces execute an orderly withdrawal. However, facing imminent defeat, the Soviet Union plays the nuclear card—and destroys Birmingham. A city with a heavy industrial base and a hub for arms production—such is the authors' rationale for selecting this target. Furthermore, it is close enough to London "that the capital would still feel the blast wave of the explosion without itself being leveled to the ground." Washington and London respond with nuclear strikes on Minsk.
According to Wagner, the book offers no justification as to why the Belarusian capital, specifically, is chosen as the target. In the fictional narrative, its destruction serves as "the spark that ignites the explosion of smoldering nationalist unrest" within the Soviet Union. From that point on, events unfold rapidly: the deputy head of the KGB shoots and kills the Soviet President, seizes control of the state, and signals his willingness to enter into peace negotiations with the United States. Wagner rightly criticizes this as an "almost naive depiction of the inner workings" of the Soviet power apparatus. Yet, viewed through the lens of present-day knowledge, the general assumptions regarding the internal disintegration of the Soviet Union appear "entirely plausible."
With *Das ABC* [The ABC] of the Apocalypse” Wagner succeeds in offering an analysis situated at the intended intersection of political, military, technological, and intellectual history. Even if the book reads somewhat ponderously in places, it provides a competent contextualization of the literary history surrounding a fictional Third World War across various levels—be it the perspective of Soviet soldiers in *Red Army: A Novel of Tomorrow's War*, the focus on aerial warfare in *Air Battle Central Europe*, or the consequences of a full-scale nuclear war in *Gegen den Dritten Weltkrieg: Strategie der Freien*. Whether the “favorable outcome” of the Cold War will be repeated in light of current tensions remains to be seen, Wagner writes at the end of his book. “The only certainty is this: The ‘nuclear eternity’ endures.”
Armin Wagner: *Das ABC der Apokalypse*:
NATO Officers Recount the Third World War. Campus Verlag,
Frankfurt am Main 2025. 455 pp., hardcover, €49.00." [1]
1. Offizielle Weltkriegsphantasien. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; Frankfurt. 02 Jan 2026: 12. GREGOR GROSSE
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