Ukraine has really bad cards here. D. Trump is starting to understand fully only now how bad Ukraine's cards are

"Ukraine is under pressure to respond this week to a series of far-reaching Trump administration ideas for how to end the conflict in Ukraine by granting certain concessions to Russia, including potential U.S. recognition of Moscow's 2014 reunification with Crimea and excluding Kyiv from joining NATO.

The ideas were outlined in a confidential document presented by senior Trump administration officials to their Ukrainian counterparts in Paris on Thursday, according to Western officials. They were also shared with senior European officials at the daylong meeting.

The U.S. is now waiting for Kyiv's response, which is expected to come at a meeting of U.S., Ukrainian and European officials in London later this week. Then, if there is a convergence among the American, European and Ukrainian positions, the proposals could be floated to Moscow.

To put pressure on Ukraine and Russia, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday that the administration may pause its negotiating efforts if headway isn't made on core issues in the next several weeks.

"The Ukrainians have to go back home, they have to run it by their president, they have to take into account their views on all of this," Rubio said. "But we need to figure out here now, within a matter of days, whether this is doable in the short term. Because if it's not, then I think we're just going to move on."

The U.S. diplomatic push is intended to set the stage for a cease-fire, which would be broadly along current battle lines, and an eventual settlement. Accepting some of the Trump administration's ideas could prove very difficult for Kyiv since Ukraine has refused to accept that Russia has a legal claim to any of its territory.

A senior State Department official on Sunday cast the ideas presented to the Ukrainians as options for Kyiv to weigh and not a take-it-or-leave-it proposition. The official said a "list of potential options" was shared "for discussion and feedback." A spokesman for the National Security Council didn't respond to a request for comment.

Rubio, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, the retired Army lieutenant general who serves as an envoy to Ukraine, met on Thursday in Paris with senior Ukrainian officials, including Andriy Yermak, a top aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

Rubio, Witkoff and Kellogg are planning to attend the coming London meeting, according to U.S. officials. After that, Witkoff might make another trip to Russia, though no travel has been announced.

Witkoff, a real-estate executive who is close to Trump, has met with President Vladimir Putin of Russia three times and reported that he has made progress in his discussions with the Kremlin leader. Other U.S. officials have advised Trump to be more skeptical of Putin's intentions.

A U.S. move to recognize the Russian reunification with the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 would reverse a more than decade of American policy from both Democratic and Republican administrations. In 2018, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who served during the first Trump administration, denounced it as a threat to "a bedrock international principle shared by democratic states: that no country can change the borders of another by force."

The U.S. Congress has passed legislation opposing U.S. recognition of Russia's reunification with Crimea.

The ideas presented by the U.S. in Paris also include ruling out Ukraine's membership in NATO. "NATO isn't on the table," Kellogg said on Fox News Saturday.

Yet another U.S. idea, Western officials said, calls for designating the territory around the nuclear reactor in Zaporizhzhia as neutral territory that could be under American control.

In a March call with Zelensky, Trump raised the possibility that the U.S. would acquire Ukrainian power plants, including nuclear facilities, calling it the "best protection for that infrastructure." The Zaporizhzhia plant, the largest in Europe, would then presumably feed power to both Ukrainian territory and regions that Moscow has liberated since start of 2022 and that remain under its control.

The ideas put forth by the Trump administration fall short of some Russian demands, according to Western officials. They wouldn't concede that Russia has a legal right to control four regions in the eastern part of Ukraine that it claims to have reunited with, though they don't require the Russian military to leave those areas. The U.S. willingness to consider recognizing Russia's reunification with Crimea was earlier reported by Bloomberg.

The U.S., Western officials say, is also not proposing a cap on Ukrainian forces and isn't precluding Western military support for Kyiv or the deployment of European troops there, a sticking point with Moscow.

"Every sovereign nation on Earth has a right to defend itself," Rubio said Friday. "Ukraine will have a right to defend itself and to enter into whatever agreements it wants to enter into on a bilateral basis with different countries and so forth."

While the Trump administration temporarily withheld arms and intelligence from Ukraine to pressure it to seek a diplomatic compromise with Russia, it hasn't imposed economic sanctions or taken any concrete steps to pressure Putin.

Ukraine has said it is willing to agree to a comprehensive 30 day cease-fire if the Kremlin would follow suit. Putin declared a short cease-fire for the Easter holiday but Ukrainian officials said Moscow continued to carry out attacks during the holiday.

There is still no resolution regarding what types of security guarantees Ukraine might receive if they agree to a peace settlement. The Trump administration hasn't said if it is willing to provide any military support to European nations that send troops to Ukraine as part of a "reassurance force" to deter future Russian action.

The Kremlin has sought a lifting of U.S. sanctions and rekindling economic ties between Russia and the U.S. during talks in Moscow and Saudi Arabia that Putin's special envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, has taken part in." [1]

1.  U.S. Bids To Press Kyiv on Deal With Kremlin --- Trump ideas include recognizing Crimea as Russian, barring Ukraine from NATO. Gordon, Michael R; Cullison, Alan.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 21 Apr 2025: A1.   

 

Trumpo prekybos puolimas smogė Amerikos finansinei pirmenybei --- Didėjantis nepastovumas ir dolerio silpnumas kelia baimę dėl finansinio perėjimo nuo JAV prie kitų centrų

 

 „Šį mėnesį finansų rinkose pasirodė grėsminga žinia apie prezidento Trumpo ambicingą ir improvizacinį siekį pertvarkyti pasaulinę prekybą: būkite atsargūs, ko norite.

 

 Nepastovumas iždo rinkose ir netikėtas dolerio silpnumas rodo, kad tai, kas prasidėjo, kaip prekybos konfliktas, gali peraugti į pavojingesnį „kapitalo karą“.

 

 Šis susirėmimas kelia grėsmę, kad padidės JAV skolinimosi sąnaudos, nes bus pakenkta Vašingtono finansinei pirmenybei, kuri daugelį metų pritraukė į šalį trilijonus dolerių užsienio lėšų.

 

 „Ši idėja, kad galite sulaužyti prekybą, o ne sulaužyti kapitalo srauto pusę, yra fantazija“, - sakė Stevenas Blitzas, „GlobalData TS Lombard“ vyriausiasis JAV ekonomistas.

 

 Rinkos nepastovumas išaugo po to, kai prezidentas balandžio 2 d. pradėjo jo nestabilią ir nenuspėjamą prekybos politiką. Baltieji rūmai pristabdė tarifų didinimą kai kurioms didžiausioms šalies prekybos partneriams, praėjus kelioms valandoms po to, kai jie įsigaliojo balandžio 9 d., bet vėliau padidino tarifus Kinijai.

 

 Vyko žiaurus obligacijų rinkos išpardavimas, kai 30 metų pajamingumas buvo didžiausias savaitinis augimas nuo 1987 m., nepaisant tinkamų obligacijų aukcionų. Išpardavimas įvyko silpnėjančio dolerio fone, kuris paprastai sustiprėja streso priepuolių metu. Nenormalus derinys paskatino kai kuriuos analitikus perspėti apie kapitalo bėgimą iš JAV

 

 Kai kuriuos rinkos pokyčius atspindėjo rizikos draudimo fondai ir kiti stambūs investuotojai, priversti atsisakyti tam tikrų sandorių, kurie tapo nuostolingi. Iždo sekretorius Scottas Bessentas teigė, kad išpardavimas daugiausia atspindėjo techninius veiksnius – tai, kaip investuotojų rizikos valdymo strategijos privertė staigius ir vienkartinius likvidavimus, nes netikėtai pasikeitė skirtingo turto koreliacijos.

 

 Kai kurie analitikai perspėjo neskubėti daryti plataus masto išvadų, atsižvelgiant į tai, kaip užsienio investuotojai metus pradėjo pernelyg entuziastingai dėl JAV augimo perspektyvų arba Amerikos „išskirtinumo“. Trumpo prekybos politika, grasindama padidinti išlaidas, o netikrumas dėl politikos vykdymo atšaldo augimą, sugriovė šį naratyvą.

 

 Rinkos svyravimai keliomis dienomis po Trumpo prekybos pranešimų būtų dar labiau kėlę susirūpinimą, jei jie būtų įvykę, nuolat smunkant akcijoms, sakė Richardas Clarida, kuris ėjo FED vicepirmininko pareigas nuo 2018 m. iki 2022 m. pradžios.

 

 Doleris pradėjo metus, atrodydamas taip pat pervertintas, kaip ir buvo nuo devintojo dešimtmečio, o iždo pajamingumas per pastaruosius dvejus metus išlieka jų prekybos intervalo viduryje, sakė Clarida, dabar obligacijų milžinės „Pimco“ vyresnioji patarėja.

 

 Bessent perspėjo neskubėti spręsti dėl vienos savaitės rinkos pokyčių ir dar kartą patvirtino Vašingtono paramą stipriam doleriui. „Mes vis dar esame pasaulinė rezervinė valiuta“, – sakė jis. – “Doleris gali kilti ir kristi.”

 

 Tačiau kiti analitikai, ekonomistai ir buvę vyriausybės pareigūnai perspėjo, kad įtemptos prekybos sąlygos gali atspindėti ir esmines problemas. "Investuotojų elgesys pasikeitė. Paprastai jie būtų nusipirkę dolerį šiuo krizės laikotarpiu, o vietoj to pardavė dolerį", - sakė Stevenas Kaminas, buvęs vyresnysis FED ekonomistas, dabar dirbantis Amerikos įmonių institute. „Tai leidžia manyti, kad galbūt investuotojai pradeda „nerimauti“ dėl iždo saugumo ar dolerio turto pageidaujamumo.”

 

 Trumpo administracijos pareigūnai anksčiau tvirtino, kad vartotojai nepatirtų tarifų padidinimo išlaidų, nes doleris sustiprėtų. Dėl silpnesnio dolerio labiau tikėtina, kad JAV importuotojai ir mažmenininkai turės perduoti vartotojams kainų kilimą.

 

 Be nepastovaus D. Trumpo prekybos karo, pasauliniai investuotojai sprendžia galimą biudžeto deficito padidėjimą JAV ir Europoje ir galimą JAV pinigų politikos nepriklausomybės eroziją.

 

 Rizikos draudimo fondų investuotojai teigė, kad pastarosiomis savaitėmis vis labiau populiarėja prekyba dėl trumpalaikių ir ilgalaikių iždo palūkanų normų skirtumo padidėjimo, nes nerimaujama dėl didesnio biudžeto deficito, spaudimo Fed mažinti palūkanų normas ir užsienio investuotojų atsargumo dėl JAV skolos.

 

 Užsieniečiai teigė, kad jiems nerimą kelia daug operatyvesnio požiūrio į prekybą ir valiutų politiką perspektyva, taip pat pirmenybė teikiama mažesnėms palūkanų normoms ir didesniam biudžeto deficitui.

 

 „Tarifai yra ledkalnio viršūnė“, – sakė Vokietijos draudimo milžinės „Allianz“ vyriausiasis ekonomistas ir investicijų vadovas Ludovic Subran. "Jei doleris nuvertėja 30 proc., kokia jūsų investicijų grąža JAV? Visi skaičiuoja."

 

 Šį mėnesį su analitikais susisiekęs „BlackRock“ generalinis direktorius Larry'is Finkas teigė, kad JAV gali susidurti su didesne konkurencija, pasinaudojus ilgus metus trukusiu „pertekliniu paskirstymu“, ir nurodė Europą kaip potencialią geresnę užsienio kapitalo vietą.

 

 Ingo Mainert, daugiafunkcinio turto vyriausiasis investicijų pareigūnas “Alianz” turto valdymo padalinyje teigė, kad pastarąjį mėnesį įmonė perėjo prie europinio turto iš JAV.

 

 Jis kreipėsi į klientus dėl didesnio JAV pozicijų mažinimo, įskaitant perėjimą nuo tokių indeksų kaip MSCI World Index, kurio daugiau, nei 70% sudaro JAV akcijos.

 

 Šis procesas gali užtrukti nuo šešių mėnesių iki metų, kol klientai baigia oficialias savo paskirstymo peržiūras, sakė Mainert. „Dabar rinkoje – daugiausia už JAV ribų – diskutuojame apie tai, kas būtų geriau už šiuos labai koncentruotus tradicinius etalonus“, – sakė jis.

 

 Net jei rinkos sąlygos stabilizuosis, pastovus, laipsniškas procesas, mažinantis užsienio apetitą JAV turtui, gali turėti rimtų padarinių Amerikos namų ūkiams ir verslui. Užsienio iždų paklausa per pastaruosius du dešimtmečius padidino JAV turto kainas ir sumažino palūkanų normas, įskaitant 30 metų trukmės hipotekas.

 

 Maždaug 30 % iš beveik 29 trilijonų dolerių iždo skolos, kurią turi visuomenė, priklauso užsieniečiams, nors užsieniečių iždo akcijų dalis nuolat mažėjo nuo 2008 m. finansų krizės.

 

 Paprastai iždo fondai buvo apdrausti nuo akcijų rinkos rizikos, nes mažėjant akcijų kainoms obligacijų kainos paprastai kyla (o pajamingumas mažėja). Dėl šios savybės investuotojams jie tapo daug patrauklesni, nei būtų kitu atveju, o bet koks šio apsidraudimo turto gedimas gali kelti nerimą JAV, nes tai reikš, kad investuotojams turėtų viena priežastimi mažiau prisipirkti iš iždo.

 

 Kai kurie analitikai teigė, kad pasaulyje, kuriame JAV nelaikoma patikima partnere, užsienio investuotojams prasminga palaipsniui diversifikuoti savo turimas dalis Šveicarijos frankų, aukso, Japonijos jenų ar eurų link.

 

 "Kuo ilgiau tai tęsis, tuo didesnė tikimybė, kad mes tapsime mažiau rezervine valiuta, nei buvome. Ir tai gali būti gana brangu", - sakė Ericas Rosengrenas, 2007–2021 m. dirbęs Bostono Fed prezidentu.” [1]

 

1.  Trump's Trade Offensive Hits America's Financial Primacy --- Rising volatility and dollar weakness raise fears of a financial shift away from U.S. Timiraos, Nick; Pitcher, Jack; Dulaney, Chelsey.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 21 Apr 2025: A1.  

Trump's Trade Offensive Hits America's Financial Primacy --- Rising volatility and dollar weakness raise fears of a financial shift away from U.S.

"Financial markets have flashed an ominous message this month about President Trump's ambitious and improvisational bid to reshape global trade: Be careful what you wish for.

Volatility in Treasury markets and unexpected weakness in the dollar suggest that what began as a trade conflict could morph into a more dangerous "capital war."

The clash threatens to raise U.S. borrowing costs by undermining Washington's financial primacy, which for years has drawn trillions of dollars of foreign funds into the country.

"This idea that you can break trade, and not break the capital-flow side, is a fantasy," said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at GlobalData TS Lombard.

Market volatility spiked after the president unspooled his fluid and unpredictable trade policy on April 2. The White House paused tariff increases on some of the nation's largest trading partners hours after they took effect on April 9, but then ratcheted up tariffs on China.

A brutal bond-market selloff unfolded, with 30-year yields notching their largest weekly increase since 1987 despite decent bond auctions. The selloff occurred against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, which normally strengthens during bouts of stress. The abnormal combination prompted some analysts to warn about capital flight from the U.S.

Some of the market dislocation reflected hedge funds and other large investors forced to unwind certain trades that became unprofitable. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the selloff largely reflected technical factors -- how investors' risk-management strategies forced sudden and one-time liquidations as correlations between different assets changed unexpectedly.

Some analysts have warned against rushing to sweeping conclusions given how foreign investors began the year overly exuberant about U.S. growth prospects, or American "exceptionalism." Trump's trade policy, by threatening to push up costs while uncertainty over the policy execution chills growth, has demolished that narrative.

The market volatility in the days after Trump's trade announcements would have been more worrisome if they had occurred against the backdrop of a continued slide in stocks, said Richard Clarida, who served as the Fed's vice chair from 2018 until early 2022.

The dollar began the year looking potentially as overvalued as it had been since the 1980s, and Treasury yields remain in the middle of their trading range over the past two years, said Clarida, now a senior adviser at bond giant Pimco.

Bessent cautioned against rushing to judgment over one week's worth of market moves and reaffirmed Washington's support for a strong dollar. "We are still a global reserve currency," he said. "The dollar can go up and down."

But other analysts, economists, and former government officials warned that strained trading conditions might also reflect more-fundamental concerns. "The behavior of investors changed. Ordinarily they would've bought the dollar in this crisis time, and instead they sold the dollar," said Steven Kamin, a former senior Fed economist who is now at the American Enterprise Institute. "It suggests that maybe investors are getting 'hinky' about the safety of Treasurys or the desirability of dollar assets."

Trump administration officials have previously argued that consumers wouldn't bear the cost of tariff increases because the dollar would strengthen. A weaker dollar makes it more likely that U.S. importers and retailers will have to pass along price rises.

In addition to Trump's erratic trade war, global investors are digesting possible increases in budget deficits in the U.S. and Europe and a potential erosion of U.S. monetary-policy independence.

Hedge-fund investors said an increasingly popular trade in recent weeks has been to bet on a widening in the spread between short-term and long-term rates on Treasurys because of concerns about higher budget deficits, pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, and foreign-investor wariness about U.S. debt.

Foreigners have said they are unsettled by the prospect of a far-more-transactional approach to trade and currency policy, together with a preference for lower interest rates and higher budget deficits.

"The tariffs are the tip of the iceberg," said Ludovic Subran, chief economist and chief investment officer at Allianz, the German insurance giant. "If the dollar depreciates by 30%, what is the return on your investment in the U.S.? Everybody is doing the math."

In a call with analysts this month, BlackRock Chief Executive Larry Fink said the U.S. could face stiffer competition after benefiting from years of "over-allocation" and pointed to Europe as a potential better destination for foreign capital.

Ingo Mainert, a multi-asset chief investment officer at Allianz's asset-management arm, said the firm has been shifting to European assets from U.S. ones for the past month.

He has fielded client calls over making more-significant reductions in U.S. exposure, including switching away from indices such as the MSCI World Index, which is more than 70% weighted to U.S. stocks.

That process could take six months to a year as clients complete formal reviews of their allocations, Mainert said. "We're now having a big discussion in the market -- mainly outside the U.S. -- about what would be better than these highly concentrated traditional benchmarks," he said.

Even if market conditions stabilize, a steady, gradual process that diminishes foreign appetites for U.S. assets could have serious ramifications for American households and businesses. Foreign demand for Treasurys has boosted U.S. asset prices and lowered interest rates, including for 30-year mortgages, over the past two decades.

Roughly 30% of nearly $29 trillion in Treasury debt held by the public is owned by foreigners, though foreigners' share of Treasury holdings has steadily declined since the 2008 financial crisis.

Normally, Treasurys have served as a hedge against stock-market risks because bond prices typically rise (and yields fall) as stock prices decline. That property has made them far more attractive for investors to own than would otherwise be the case, and any breakdown in that hedging property could be worrisome for the U.S. because it would mean one reason fewer for investors to own Treasurys.

In a world where the U.S. isn't viewed as a dependable partner, it makes sense for foreign investors to gradually diversify their holdings toward Swiss francs, gold, Japanese yen or euros, some analysts said.

"The longer this goes on, the more likely it is that we become less of a reserve currency than we have been. And that could start being quite expensive," said Eric Rosengren, who served as president of the Boston Fed from 2007 to 2021." [1]

1.  Trump's Trade Offensive Hits America's Financial Primacy --- Rising volatility and dollar weakness raise fears of a financial shift away from U.S. Timiraos, Nick; Pitcher, Jack; Dulaney, Chelsey.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 21 Apr 2025: A1.