The Frailty Behind Europe's Triumphalism

"Davos, Switzerland -- The temperature was in the single digits as your Global View columnist struggled to drag his suitcase across the icy streets of Davos to catch the 6 a.m. shuttle bus to Zurich on Saturday. The first winter meeting of the World Economic Forum since 2020 had been a success. While few Chinese and no Russians were present, India and the Gulf states more than took up the slack, and participation from the private sector reached an all-time high.

For Klaus Schwab, the 84-year-old founder and chief impresario of the World Economic Forum, the 53rd annual meeting was a triumph. French President Emmanuel Macron, pushing unpopular reforms to his country's retirement system, prudently gave Davos a miss. But Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, and Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, joined German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in delivering major addresses. A closing panel on the global economic outlook featured the president of the International Monetary Fund, the heads of the European and Japanese central banks, and luminaries like Larry Summers.

No other event brings together this mix of power and prominence. With all its flaws, the World Economic Forum remains an essential destination for the global power elite. And when CEOs and world leaders flock to Davos, journalists and commentators can hardly stay away.

While much of the real business of Davos takes place among CEOs and investors in private meetings, the gathering's public agenda was dominated by two topics: climate change and the military operation in Ukraine.

The enthusiasm for Ukraine was vivid. Europeans wore yellow and blue to show their solidarity. President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the conference by video while Ukraine's first lady visited in person.

Both drew rapturous receptions -- though non-European, non-American participants from places like India and the Gulf were less enthusiastic.

European enthusiasm for Ukraine is driven partly by relief. The combination of a warm winter and efforts by European governments foiled Vladimir Putin's plan to bring the Continent to its knees by an energy embargo. And despite qualms in countries like Hungary, Greece and Slovakia, the European Union has been able to unite around economic sanctions against Russia and aid for Ukraine. Speaker after speaker returned to these themes: Europe is strong, Europe is united, Europe has become a major geopolitical actor like China and the U.S.

This latest bout of Euro triumphalism was unconvincing, and not only because of policy battles over issues like Germany's reluctance to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Europe's weakness matters even more than its divisions. If Ukraine had depended on Europe alone for help, the Russian flag would be flying over the ruins of Kharkiv, Kyiv and Odessa. More than 30 years after the end of the Cold War, Europe can't act in its own backyard without depending on the U.S. But Washington is increasingly preoccupied by challenges in the Indo-Pacific.

With many European leaders sheltering under the American security umbrella even as they double down on close economic relations with China, it isn't clear how long the U.S. will be willing or able to protect the EU from the consequences of its geopolitical incapacity.

This isn't an idle concern. Mr. Putin hasn't yet lost his military operation. Fears that Russian mobilization could bring hundreds of thousands of fresh if poorly trained troops into the conflict, along with a sober assessment of the effectiveness of the Russian air campaign, are leading some in Kyiv and elsewhere to warn of a massive Russian offensive in the spring.

If Germany relents and sends tanks to Ukraine, Russian hopes for a successful offensive will take a hit. Yet even then, without American money, equipment and ammunition, Ukraine can't continue the unequal struggle indefinitely.

In my last column, I noted that European hopes for concerted global action on climate change can't succeed without support from American Republicans. Europe's hopes for Ukraine likewise depend on GOP votes in Congress. The belief that the EU can achieve its core objectives without engaging seriously with American conservatives is magical thinking. Mr. Putin's military operation in Ukraine should have alerted Europeans to the danger of erecting foreign policy on wishes and dreams. That doesn't seem to have happened.

Europe is walking on thin ice. Russia, China and Iran challenge the existing world order.

Much of the Global South increasingly resents the status quo.

And in the U.S., the political consensus behind two generations of global American engagement is badly frayed.

European diplomats pride themselves on bridge building and dialogue, though they sometimes seem more willing to engage with Tehran and Beijing than with Ohio and Florida. Let's hope that 2023 will begin an era of engagement, facilitated perhaps by the WEF, between European leaders and the increasingly disgruntled American conservatives whose support they desperately need." [1]

 

Biden's subsidies killing European  industry show that all Americans, not only Republicans, are losing patience with European entitlements. We have to decide do we want to compete in today's economy or not. If not - stop complaining.

1. The Frailty Behind Europe's Triumphalism
Walter Russell Mead.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 24 Jan 2023: A.13.