Sanctions "whipped" Lithuania more than Russia

  "As a result of sanctions against Russia in the region, judging by port loading, Lithuania suffered the most. Who will compensate for the loss? During 2022 Klaipėda port lost 9.5 million. tons or 21 percent cargo compared to 2021. Such a drop was one of the biggest in the Baltic Sea region. Only in the Russian ports of St. Petersburg (by 25%) and Kaliningrad (by 22%) did cargo fall more. The fall of these Russian ports was directly caused by the sanctions applied to this country. The loading of the port of Kaliningrad also fell due to the difficulties in transporting goods by rail through Lithuania.    

 

     Lithuania partly caused the sanctions by itself, acting in such a way that the American veto was placed on potash fertilizers from Belarus. 

 

     In 2022 for more than 10 months, around February 20, Belarusian potash fertilizers stopped traveling through Lithuania. Klaipėda port in 2022 lost over 11 million tons of potash fertilizers from Belarus alone. The production difficulties of the Lithuanian fertilizer producers Achemos and Lifosa are also related to the sanctions. As a result, not only the port of Klaipėda suffered huge losses, but also "Lietuvos geležinkeliai", car carriers. Today, we do not hear whether, due to the fact that Lithuania lost a large part of its cargo, someone will compensate it for the market losses. What will happen to the buildings of the bulk cargo terminal, quays, in which a considerable amount of money has been invested and managed by the Lithuanian government's Klaipėda State Seaport Directorate?

 

     Recognized "oversalting"

 

     Did the Lithuanian authorities behave wisely in rejecting Belarusian cargo? Politically, the steps may be justified, especially since the regime of Aliaksandrs Lukashenka, who declared himself president, also carried out a hybrid attack against Lithuania with allegedly brought refugees from Iraq.    

 

     From an economic point of view, the rash policy of the young Lithuanian government is hardly justified in relation to Belarus, and even more so in relation to China. Lithuania probably suffered more than those countries as a result of such a policy.  

 

     Now we even hear the assessments of the President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nausėdas, that, at least in relation to China, Lithuania has "oversalted". If A. Lukashenka's regime does not directly engage in a military operation against Ukraine, but only continues to imitate "preparation" for the Russian president, will it not be "oversalted" with Belarus as well? Some military experts consider A. Lukashenka's "army preparation maneuvers" to be even wise in order to save the country from V. Putin's actions.  

 

     Only Russia won from the fact that Lithuania rejected Belarusian potash fertilizers. Belaruskalij fertilizer seems to have passed through the port of Ust Luga. 7.5 million were loaded into it last year. tons of fertilizer more than in 2021. The largest part of this increase is likely to come from Belaruskalij.  

 

     Latvians could load Russian coal, while Lithuania refused Belarusian cargo. It can be said that by "causing" sanctions on "Belaruskalij" fertilizers in this way, Lithuania somehow contributed to Russia's economic support.

 

     Due to the sanctions against Belarus, Klaipėda port in 2022 approximately one million tons of cargo transported by sea ferries was also lost. Losses due to the loss of Belarusian exports and imports were probably suffered not only by the port, but also by other transport companies.

 

     Return to 2014

 

     In Lithuania, justification is being sought for the 9.5 mln. tons of cargo loss. The unfavorable geopolitical situation is blamed. Sanctions against Klaipėda port for Belarus in 2022 pushed even to 2014 level. If Lithuania had been more pragmatic and had maintained Belarusian cargoes even in the face of a difficult geopolitical situation, it would have continued to reach the average, and maybe even higher than 5-6 percent annual growth rate in 2022. 

 

A kind of "phenomenon" of the port appeared - as much as 57 percent. the growth of container handling reached 1 mln. 47 thousand TEU level. It is surprising that a large part of cargo in containers from Latvia traveled through the port of Klaipėda, even though it has three sea ports of its own. This was determined by the activities of the world's largest container shipping company MSC in the port of Klaipėda. Unexpected 2022 the indicator was also the fact that more than in 2021 oil products are being loaded, although not a drop of Belarusian cargo from this area was left in Klaipėda port either. Much more energy cargo passed through Klaipėda port last year. There were also new cargoes, such as coal for Poland, with a load of about 40,000 tons. General Director of Klaipėda State Seaport Algis Latakas 2022 assessed as favorable, but emphasized that they could have been better. in 2021 30-32 million was predicted at the end of tons of annual cargo, and as much as 36 mln. tons.

     The only question remains - whether in 2023 will be better than 2022? The beginning of the year is not so optimistic so far.

     Sanctions did not work for everyone

     Why, when the port of Klaipėda fell sharply, other ports in the region increased their cargo? Latvian ports stood out. Their total cargo in 2022 was even 15.2 percent. higher than in 2021 In total, they loaded 48.1 million. The port of Riga handled 23.51 mln. tons (growth + 9.4%), Ventspils – 14.74 million. tons (growth +33.1%), Liepaja – 7.6 million. tons (7.6 percent growth). The growth of Latvian ports was determined by as much as 4.8 times to 8.41 million. tonnes of increased cargo of Russian coal. The question arises, why Latvians were able to load Russian cargo, while Lithuania refused Belarusian cargo?

 

     The loading results of Russian seaports are also interesting. According to Russian data, its ports in 2022 did not experience a fall. The total cargo amounted to 841.5 million. tons or 0.7 percent. more than 2021 In the Baltic Sea region, the loading of Russian ports was negative - 2.9 percent, lower than in 2021 This means that the sanctions against Russia mostly affected the Baltic Sea region, which is directly related to the EU countries. The port of Ust Luga seems to have felt no sanctions. It in 2022 loaded 15 million tons more than in 2021 in 2022 the loading of oil and its products in the Baltic Sea region has also significantly increased in the port of Primorsk in the Leningrad Region. The absolute best loading results in 2022. also demonstrated by Polish seaports. In Gdańsk, the loading of some cargoes sometimes increased, especially energy cargoes. When Poland was reorienting itself to new energy resources, its ports were unable to receive all the traffic, so part of it traveled through Klaipėda.

 

     The damage of sanctions to both Russia and Belarus was felt by large German ports. Both the ports of Hamburg and Bremerhaven saw less cargo. It is believed that part of the containers from German ports "leaked" directly to the port of Klaipėda via MSC lines."

 

Fertilizer sanctions drive up food prices around the world and starve the poor. Smart governments therefore avoid fertilizer sanctions. Apparently, we cannot classify the Lithuanian government as a group of smart people.