The Lithuanian government, which is doing nothing else but pouring snot on Russia, are naive ignoramuses, and by electing them, we expose the entire Lithuanian nation to the ridicule of the world

"Many Lithuanians are convinced that they understand and predict Russia's behavior better than Western democracies, including the United States. What is this belief based on? Data-based conclusions, prejudices, or the modern-day equivalent of ancient Roman prophecies from bird flights or detailed studies of the internal organs of sacrificed animals, especially the liver?

 

Did the Lithuanian specialists know that the conflict in Ukraine will start in February 2022? If so, they are extremely perceptive. Boris Bondarev, the responsible official of Russian foreign affairs, who defected to the West after the start of the conflict, wrote in the influential magazine "Foreign Affairs" that in 2022 month of January he did not believe that there would be such a conflict.

 

Ukraine in 2022 was clearly more unified and pro-Western than in 2014, the West's highly combative statements about a possible conflict made it clear that the United States and Europe would respond strongly. "My work in the field of weapons and exports has taught me that, except for Belarus, no country will offer us significant support. I thought that Putin must have known that too, despite all the gunmen who kept him from the truth."

 

He was wrong, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was also wrong, in 2022 at the end of January, after persistently urging the West not to panic about the Russian forces massed on his country's borders. US warnings about an imminent conflict allegedly pose a danger to Ukraine's economy. "There are signals even from respected heads of state, they simply say that there will be a conflict tomorrow. This is panic - how much is it costing our country?" According to him, the biggest threat to Ukraine is "destabilization of the situation inside the country".

 

The self-love of Lithuania and other Eastern European countries is flattered by some Western politicians, praising the correct assessment of the threats posed by Russia. For example, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said that Eastern European countries were right to warn Germany about the danger posed by Moscow. Lithuanian politicians repeatedly reminded the West that due to such an attitude, Vilnius received criticism from the members of the European Union (EU) and the United States. Less than two days after President Valdas Adamkaus' remarks in 2008 at the beginning of the year that Russia might be determined to start a new Cold War, the American Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called such talk "hyperbolized nonsense". Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė has claimed that it would have been better if Lithuania had made a mistake in assessing Moscow's threats.

 

Lithuania correctly predicted  that Russia is determined to act aggressively. But I return to the question on what basis Lithuania reached its conclusion and what was the specific content of the conclusion. The ability to understand Russia's domestic and foreign policy is not related to acquaintances or the past, the fact that Russia is Lithuania's neighbor, which has enslaved it for a long time, that (disproportionately) many Lithuanians speak Russian, have Russian acquaintances, play with Russians in the yard, watch or can watch Russian TV shows means little. Generally, in order to determine the foreign policy guidelines of another hostile country, one relies on intelligence information, assessments of political scientists, military and other specialists, insights and thoughtful decisions of journalists, students and other observers living, working or just visiting those countries. How much energy, funds, human resources are we devoting to the analysis of Russia?

 

The situation is quite sad. Lithuanian intelligence agencies are mediocre at best, if that. They do not have access to more sensitive information collected by the intelligence services of the United States, the United Kingdom and other powerful countries, because of fears that Lithuanian institutions have been infiltrated by Russian spies or that they may be otherwise compromised. And not without reason - it shows that the potentially leaked NATO Summit data is related to hacking into the systems of Lithuanian authorities.

 

Lithuania does not have a single first-rank contemporary Russian expert who publishes his articles in prestigious journals, we do not have a leading research center, even the Center for Eastern European Studies pays no less attention to other countries. Although we do not have real Russian specialists, we are in no hurry to develop them. Three years ago, I calculated that out of 60 doctoral dissertations on international relations defended at Vilnius University's Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (VU TSPMI), only 8 were about Russia. 

 

Usually, doctoral students researching a country live there for a year or two, collect material, communicate with local scientists, share insights, ask for advice. I don't know how many Lithuanian political scientists trained in Russia in this century, but I would guess that you can count them on your fingers.

 

Competent but not first-rank diplomats are appointed as ambassadors to Russia. One gets the impression that promising young diplomats are not sent to work in Moscow, but rather look to the West and compete for appointment to embassies in EU capitals. 

 

After returning to Lithuania, diplomats who worked in Russia are usually silent as mice, unlike the former ambassadors of the United States and the United Kingdom, who widely comment and evaluate Russian policy, write articles and books.

 

Today's politicians no longer have contact with their colleagues in Russia (more than a decade has passed since Andrius Kubilius and Dalia Grybauskaitė's conversations with V. Putin), and the knowledge gained thirty years ago while communicating with the politicians of the collapsing USSR does not enable a better understanding of V. Putin and his siloviki, who see the world differently than their predecessors.

 

A lack of interest in Russia, and therefore a low level of understanding of it, is an inevitable consequence of our "Kremliophobia", viewing Russia as a leper colony that is avoided like the plague. 

 

There is probably not a single Lithuanian who, like Mark Galeotti, the author and reviewer of many books on contemporary Russia, would often visit Russia, live there for a few months, rent an apartment in an ordinary neighborhood of Moscow, communicate with local residents or dare to publicly say, as he did five years ago, that Moscow is an attractive, interesting, rather Western city. More than one chairman of the Seimas committee would probably call such a scientist and his remarks an idiot useful to the Kremlin, spreading Kremlin propaganda. Major Western media organizations have excellent correspondents in Moscow, and we?

 

Lithuania knows Russia very little. Analyzes and assessments are not based on facts and data, except for those that are publicly published in the West or can be extrapolated from Russian social media, but on preconceived notions, worn-out templates of a mafia state, an image of an unchanging, eternally aggressive Russia. It's a pity, but it must be admitted that xenophobia is probably the most important factor determining the attitude of Lithuanians towards Russia.

 

It is puzzling that Lithuanian politicians are not interested in getting to know our eastern neighbor better. Russia poses the greatest danger to Lithuania, so in order to neutralize those threats as effectively as possible, it is necessary to collect as much objective information as possible about Russia, to determine its intentions and the possibilities of their implementation as accurately as possible, and not just to lazily think that Moscow is programmed to behave as we think a paradigmatic evil empire should behave. It is necessary to train specialists in Russian studies, allocate more scholarships to their students, and try to create conditions for them to do internships in Russia. If possible, Lithuania should invite international experts, and if they cannot come, send their best students to their universities. You need to generously fund or create your own think tanks and ensure that they focus on Russia, not Belarus. It would be important for the Western media to have their own correspondents in Moscow as an example, although it is not clear whether they would be accredited and would not be falsely accused of espionage like the US journalist Evan Gershkovich. Talented diplomats should be encouraged to work in Russia. There are many more similar tasks. If some of them are implemented, Russia will not be a mythical evil kingdom, but an enemy with which we will be better prepared to fight and about which we will be able to talk intelligently."