Counting what Lithuania has lost due conflicts with China and Russia: some experts are surprised by more than that

   "Two years ago, a decision was made that damaged relations between Lithuania and China - to establish a representative office of Taiwan in Lithuania. The decision was explained by the principles of value-based foreign policy. Those in power said they believed that other Western countries would also follow Lithuania's path. What came out of it? Did the value-based foreign policy work? This was discussed in the Žinių radio program "Open conversation". The members of the Seimas discussed: Matas Maldeikis, a member of the conservative faction, Lukas Savickas, a member of the "Vardan Lietuvos" faction of the Democratic Union, and Giedrius Surplys, a member of the Lithuanian Peasants' and Greens' Union faction.

 

     Understanding values - stands out

 

 

     When we talk about value-based foreign policy, now, most of the time, we see relations with China and with Taiwan. Political scientist Šarūnas Liekis has previously assessed that, unfortunately, such value policy did not work. As Seimas member M. Maldeikis stated, he never liked the concept of "value-based foreign policy", but he explained how, in his opinion, we should understand it.

 

     "Politics is a phenomenon of values, when you say: I am for something or I am against something - it is, first of all, about your values, followed by ideology. Ideology is a consequence of your values. The question is - what are those values? What we hear, for example, from Mr. Š. Liekis and from other people who talk about specific numbers, let's say, these are the values that they represent and those values are money. Those values are money and a specific business. A specific business - I mean the one that exports to China and that exports from China to Lithuania. They always talk about numbers and look clearly at that paradigm. They will always point to that logic. You know, it's just about the money and nothing else. It doesn't matter who you trade with: Putin, Xi Jinping, Stalin - it's about business," said M. Maldeikis.

 

     Thus, taking into account the opinion of M. Maldeikis, it can be assumed that for all those who critically evaluate the conservative foreign policy, the only important thing is how much money is earned from it.

 

     "At the end of the day, they always talk about numbers without looking at the wider context," he insisted.

 

     According to the interviewer, it can be noted that Angela Merkel also relied on such principles quite recently.

 

     "We remember: let's trade with Russia, let's trade with China - everything is fine, there will be no wars, it is important that a specific business earns and we move forward. We will solve everything through trade, mutual trade and other things. In Lithuania, probably the most prominent person who represents such an ideology is the mayor of Kaunas, Matijošaitis. Well, it's just business and nothing more, isn't it? My sons from the Kaunas Municipal Council will not go to war, so we can continue to trade. My values are different, my values are the national interests of the country as I understand them. And, in this case, my imagination in the aspect of national interests and security of Lithuania completely coincides, first of all, with our position, the so-called value position, regarding Russia and China, because it is about the same thing. People are still trying to separate somehow now, but these are inseparable things. Russia and China, in this case, are about the same thing. Only one started earlier, the other later", shared M. Maldeikis.

 

     According to him, we should understand that national interests are the most important of all.

 

     "We are no longer living in a period of peace. China with us, just like Russia with the Western world, is only fake news, business, sanctions, supply chains, migrants - whatever you want. These are simply different fields in which they are at war with us, and we still imagine that we live in a world that has long since changed. We still don't want to see the world that is actually happening," said the member of the Seimas.

 

     We cannot cut all the lines

 

     Seimas member L. Savickas reacted to the insights of his colleague M. Maldeikis.

 

     "The first feeling when listening is that this is probably such a good example, when you have some fairy tale and after repeating it many times, you suddenly believe that this fairy tale is the world in which you actually live and collect several examples and say that it is so indeed, but whether this is true, I think we can all see," he said.

 

     According to the interlocutor, it should be understood that we cannot simply take and cut all the connecting lines, because the interests of our state are such that there are jobs in the country, that the economy grows, that we remain competitive.

 

     "This does not mean that we are abandoning our value position. This means that we, knowing and communicating clearly, perceive the world as it is, that we have dependencies on each other and we have to manage those risks. There were excellent examples here, which are perhaps somewhat forgotten now, when, during the work of the previous Government, a mechanism was created specifically about how the state would protect its national interests. A mechanism was created that is still working and is valid, without certain precedents", he explained.

 

     According to L. Savickos, the example of Lithuania is unique and raises the question that if we have a really strong value position and strong diplomats - why don't we create a coalition?

 

     "Let's work together so that it is not only Lithuania's costs, only Lithuania's lost jobs, only Lithuania's emerging economy, but so that there is a common solution," he said.

 

     The interviewer revealed some interesting details in the show.

 

     "Here, Matas defends that position very energetically, but at the same time, we have been trying to harmonize an agreement on foreign policy here for a year, and it is very interesting that it is in that agreement, already in that draft that the negotiators are talking about, that it is necessary to move from value policy, to move towards the harmony of value and pragmatic policy, and to work with China not unilaterally, but together with the entire European Union. It seems to me that there is already an internal awareness that there has been pressure and an attempt is being made to move little by little towards such a policy with a more sense of reality", shared L. Savickas.

 

     Provided specific numbers

 

 

     Responding to the position expressed by L. Savickos, M. Maldeikis decided to speak with real examples - numbers.

 

     "If we take the figures of Lithuania's exports, which must reflect how much we lost due to China, how many jobs we lost and other things, what are you talking about. For the year 2022, Lithuanian exports increased by 27 percent. Lithuania has never exported so much in history. We used to export 170 million to China, now we export 45 million to China, while the export to the surrounding region alone, which is Japan, Indonesia, Australia, Taiwan, has increased to 500 million. That business you're talking about that lost jobs - it created jobs. The jobs were created due to the fact that Lithuania's exports increased by inhuman numbers," he said.

 

     According to M. Maldeikis, the image presented by L. Savickas and his expressed opinion are significantly different from reality.

 

     "When you say that Lithuania lost, Lithuania won, if we are talking only about the economy and not about security," he said.

 

     The answer was given by L. Savickas.

 

     "Matas' assumptions are probably that the world is static and that the reference point is the same, and we can only talk about the fact that if it grows, then everything is fine, but we are talking about opportunities that do not exist, about the Lithuanian economy, whose industry is the most quickly dying in all of Europe and to say that there was no effect is simply a myth," he said.

 

     Ten for the headlines, but not for the results

 

     According to G. Surplis, everyone who talks about value-based foreign policy should understand that there can be various rules, there can be beliefs, but results must be achieved.

 

     "Here, at this point, I would say that Lithuanian foreign policy in recent years can be rated top ten for PR, public relations, because there are certainly a lot of headlines in the world, but for effectiveness, which, anyway, should be the main goal of foreign policy - no ", he said.

 

     G. Surplys said that he does not agree with M. Maldeikis's position that everyone who criticizes foreign policy speaks thinking only about money.

 

     "This is not what we are talking about at all. Let's look at three things - Ukraine, Belarus and the United States of America. National interest is not only money, national interest is above all security. I think that's what we mean now. As for Ukraine, unfortunately, those famous promises that now that we have established relations with Taiwan, quarreled with China, we will get everything we want from America, did not lead to the fact that Ukraine was invited to NATO. As for Belarus, we have a situation that we know we cannot control. In fact, we are already thinking about how to limit the entry of Belarusians here, because there is a threat to national security. And, finally, the USA - now we are happy about the arrival of the German brigade to Lithuania, but let's remember that we started with the fact that we really wanted an American brigade. This, again, is that we get very loud headlines for naming the representaion office the way we did and still being the only one in the world - we haven't received very big dividends so far, not only in terms of economics, but also in terms of security," he said.

 

     According to the interlocutor, he agrees with L. Savicks's opinion that relations with China cannot be cut off in such a simple way either.

 

     "Let's not forget that it is not only economic interests that compel leaders like Biden or Macron to talk to China. China is important in both dealing with Russia and North Korea, and ultimately when dealing with issues like climate change, I agree with Lukas here that we can't just cut the phone and internet cable and pretend China doesn't exist. China is an important character and no one is saying that you need to have a great relationship with China, but at least some kind of relationship is needed," he assured.

 

     We are not living in a period of peace 

 

According to M. Maldeikis, the period we are living in now is based on the fact that countries such as Russia and China are using all instruments to change the world order and establish the rules of the game.

 

     "The price we are at right now, I believe, is a little different than what my opponents imagine today. In my opinion, the world order that China is trying to build, with the help of Russia, is a world order in which countries like Lithuania simply do not exist. Or they are being tried to be erased, as is being done in Ukraine, to simply erase the state, to erase its history, or, simply, by making it non-state-like. Our interest is a world order based on the world rules we joined after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This is some leadership from the United States of America and clear rules of the game," he said.

 

     According to a member of the Conservative group, our actions and value policies must be aimed at clearly articulating what and where we stand.

 

     "Believe me, when there will be a division of world power, and it is, in fact, already beginning to take place, a new world is just forming, which my opponents somehow try not to react to, in them those countries will say: look, I had to sell something there, I closed my eyes , I just needed to play the games - they will sell out soon. Countries that clearly articulate what, why and how they stand will look different at the same negotiating table. The United States of America sees that very well," said M. Maldeikis.

 

     So, according to M. Maldeikis, we must speak clearly about our position so that we are not the ones who have to ask for help later.

 

     Persuasion is a fundamental mistake

 

     According to Seimas member L. Savickas, one gets the impression that M. Maldeikis is trying to convince everyone that we can only prove what we believe in and what we stand for by the most painful actions for ourselves.

 

     "I think there's a fundamental mistake that's being made here, because if you're trying to say that we have a brick wall in front of us, the best way to knock it down is to headbutt all the bricks in a row, instead of finding a way to grab a few cornerstones, for that wall to fall," he said.

 

     According to him, now the business community communicates very clearly about their big losses, but they do not deny the fact that they would have gone to new markets, so it can be understood that delicacy is one of the tools we can use.

 

     "We can clearly communicate our value positions, make every effort to communicate that position not only from us, but collectively, in such formats as our friendly countries, the European Union, our strategic partners, open other markets and direct our investments there, but the chosen method is straightforward. A direct method creates a lot of damage that is not necessary," said L. Savickas.

 

     Will Lithuania be a guiding star that will move the world?

 

     According to G. Surplys, a member of the Lithuanian Peasants and Greens faction, although the discussion is heated, we must understand that everyone, at the level of goals, thinks the same way.

 

     "We all understand China's risks and, again, our former government took the first steps, limiting China's possible influence on Lithuania's strategic objects. We are certainly not the first swallow. Let's remember President Trump's economic wars with China. The world really sees what Matas says, no need to convince it. The question for the current government is about competence and strategic thinking, so that your values and beliefs achieve the results Lithuania needs. At this point, it is clear that we did not have a consensus not only between the ruling party and the opposition, not only between the Government and the President, but even between individual ministries regarding Taiwan's representation and China policy. Now, if we are preparing in that Chinese foreign policy agreement, which will definitely not be accepted, we wrote one sentence that we will develop relations with China within the framework of the European Union, which means that we realized that what we have done can be called banging our heads against a brick wall, but it was not productive. We just loudly repeated what we all already know, but, in principle, we were the only ones who got burned the most and that's the end of the story," he said. [1]

 

We fought for capitalism in Lithuania. We have it. But capitalism, useful only for the Landsbergis' clan. The Landsbergis' clan rose to the top of Lithuanian politics by deception. Now they are using politics (for example, the scandal with China) to destroy Lithuanian businesses and seize as much of the destroyed Lithuanian wealth as possible. Until we get rid of the Landsbergis' clan, there is no normal life in Lithuania.