Landsbergis has already accepted Ukraine into the European Union. Or maybe not yet? And we don't know if Ukraine will be ever accepted

    "Last week, the political signal of the 27th (actually 26) Council of European Union leaders to open negotiations on EU membership for Ukraine, celebrated by Lithuania and some other EU countries, gave the impression that Ukraine is already in political and economic Europe. Well, if not today, then soon.

 

     The public space was happy that the enemy of the European progressive forces and the "bad guy" no. 1 Viktor Orban has come down. Wait wait - left the hall during voting. In any case, the promised Hungarian veto on negotiations with Ukraine did not happen.

 

     But is this magic of Brussels really the basis of decisions to be so happy? Is it soccer for a goal or more of a bureaucratic simulation of the game? My experience as an expert in preparing not only Ukraine for EU membership, but also other neighboring countries, says that the key to the candidate's productive dialogue with the EU and Brussels is managing expectations, not euphoria.

 

     Ukraine is at the end of the candidate queue

 

     In fact, the EU has not yet taken a final decision on the start of negotiations with Ukraine. Without delving into the procedural exercises of Brussels, let's prepare for another bureaucratic and political show in March next year. Let's say that Ukraine will successfully pass that stage - what then?

 

     That question would be best asked of other candidate countries for EU membership, which have already overcome the same barriers. Negotiations on EU membership were "opened" for the Balkan countries Albania and North Macedonia in the summer of 2022. In reality, they still haven't started even a year and a half after their "opening" - in the case of Albania, EU member Greece is putting up obstacles, and in North Macedonia - another member, Bulgaria. You ask how it is possible to "open" negotiations in Brussels, but not start them?... It is possible.

 

     Even after the start of the negotiations, it takes a very long time to fully overcome the 33 or 34 (depending on the candidate country) negotiating chapters, which affect most sectors of state management and economy. Another Balkan country, Montenegro, has been negotiating EU membership since 2012 and has closed only 3 negotiating chapters so far, Serbia - since 2014 (closed only 2).

 

     Negotiations may start, but then be "frozen" - as in the case of Turkey, which officially started negotiations for EU membership already two decades ago.

 

     Next to Ukraine and Moldova, the EU candidates include Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sakartvel and, as a "potential candidate", Kosovo. Norway, Switzerland and Iceland have also submitted applications for EU membership on time, but they do not actively implement them and do not conduct negotiations voluntarily.

 

     Let's not confuse the negotiations with the real expansion of the EU

 

      In order to assess the prospects of this negotiation process for Ukraine and other candidates, one should first realize that there are not one, but two key decision centers in Brussels: "bureaucratic Europe" with the European Commission at the head, and "political Europe" with the Council of the 27 EU countries. The European Parliament, elected by all the people of the EU, although theoretically adding weight to "political" Europe, is for now a peripheral player.

 

     "Bureaucratic" and "political" Europe do not always agree - and often openly clash. Because of the conflict with the authorities of Hungary and Poland, the European Commission has so far suspended tens of billions of EU structural support for these two countries.

 

     But the final - and most of the interim - decisions regarding EU membership will be made by "political" Europe. Or, in other words, the government of 27 countries elected by the people, And by unanimous decision. A lot of procedural barriers have been created on the way to EU membership - as many as 57 official stages. There are still many opportunities for V. Orban or someone else to leave the hall, or to stay in it when needed...

 

     The most interesting thing is that there is no official decision from the EU to expand the organization of political power at all. The EU is formally currently in "potential enlargement" mode, from which it is not clear when it will exit. The official statements of the leaders of France, as one of the de facto leaders of the EU, in the last few years suggest that the expansion of the Community in general may be frozen in favor of deeper integration among the existing EU members. The leaders of Germany have not spoken about unconditional further development either. The last country admitted to the EU so far is Croatia in 2013.

 

     Meanwhile, Brussels bureaucrats, together with the authorities of Ukraine and other candidates, can continue to actively work on the 33 negotiating chapters, gradually paving the way through the 57 negotiating stages. Who knows, sometimes the tail successfully wags the dog...

 

     What will the candidates' chances of joining the EU depend on

 

     The most realistic signal about the prospect of EU membership for Ukraine today was not given by jubilant bureaucrats in the corridors of Brussels or our politicians on social networks, but by Polish truck drivers. Polish logisticians have blocked the border with Ukraine for several weeks in protest against the free movement of goods to and from the EU. They say that Ukrainian counterparts are competing unfairly and should therefore not be admitted on equal terms to the EU transport market. According to the Polish, Ukrainian logisticians cheat in customs declarations, do not pay taxes, do not pay their drivers enough, use inappropriate and non-ecological equipment, etc.

 

     Speaking in expert jargon, compliance costs are lower in Ukraine. As a result, they can offer a lower price to EU customers. Maybe this is the fault of Brussels itself - the logistics companies of Poland and other countries are still "grateful" for the Mobility Package and other rules that contradict not only the EU Green Course, but also common sense. However, this Polish protest brought to the surface a dilemma - if we are going to compete equally in one market with new countries, then we must do it according to the same rules for everyone - both on paper and in practice.

 

     Due to very similar reasons, the political decisions of Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria and other EU countries either blocked or limited the import of grain and corn from Ukraine this year. The accusations are similar - Ukrainian producers compete unfairly, which is why they do not deserve free trade with the EU.

 

     And what will happen when the question of sharing the money pie of Brussels appears on the EU membership negotiation table? What will French farmers say when they have to share the still generous EU agricultural subsidies with Ukrainian farmers? And what do Lithuanian business associations and other interest groups think about it? Sooner or later, the authorities of the EU countries will have to coordinate these practical issues with people and business, and not conveniently push them aside.

 

     The "bad guy" still achieved his goal

 

     Another important fact remained on the sidelines of the euphoria of the opening of Ukraine's EU membership negotiations. Last week in Brussels, the "bad guy" Orban quietly achieved his goal - he blocked the promised EU financial support to Ukraine. In the perspective of 2024-2027, Brussels had to allocate more than EUR 50 billion to Ukraine - mostly in the form of deferred payment credits.

 

     This support is vital for Ukraine. Only in 2024 the budget deficit of over 40 billion euros (over 50%) has already been programmed in the country's budget. EU support, together with World Bank credits, was supposed to make up the lion's share of the missing money next year. If they do not reach the treasury, there will be nothing to pay the salaries of both the public sector and the army. A failed alternative could be money printing, which the Central Bank of Ukraine has successfully resisted so far.

 

     This discrepancy between reality and the rosy picture of relations with Ukraine created by Brussels bureaucrats and politicians of some EU countries will be harmful - primarily to the Community itself and its image. Euroscepticism is on the rise in the Balkan countries, which have been negotiating EU membership for a long time, nationalist populism is on the rise, and there is less and less faith in the EU as a goal perspective.

 

     As a Balkan government representative jokingly suggested to me recently, "What has to happen for us to finally get the EU's attention, to start a conflict again and destroy the country?"

 

The author of the comment is Dovydas Vitkauskas, an expert on justice and public management reforms"