"Henry Kissinger was the pre-eminent
statesman of post-World War II America. He was not just a policymaker; he was a
strategist who thought about the world in conceptual terms and drew on a
nuanced understanding of history and geopolitics to guide U.S. statecraft. Mr.
Kissinger adhered to a realist intellectual framework that produced enormous
strategic payoffs, enabling the United States to pivot from a failing war in
Vietnam to a much more limited and restrained version of the Cold War that
promoted international stability and restored domestic consensus.
In the aftermath of Mr. Kissinger’s
recent death, a chorus of critics has contended that he trampled on American
values as he played by the rules of realpolitik, sacrificing human rights and
democratic ideals in the service of geopolitical gain. He is guilty as charged.
During his tenure as national security adviser and secretary of state from 1969
until 1977, Washington often aided and abetted human suffering and cozied up to
odious regimes.
Yet Mr. Kissinger’s immoral excesses
do not compromise his accomplishments as a statesman.
The pragmatic realism that anchored his effective diplomacy
rested on two fundamental principles.
First, he understood that international stability depends on
preserving an equilibrium of power, which in turn rests on the practice of
strategic restraint and the forging of a set of ordering rules that all major
states deem to be legitimate.
Second, he understood that good strategy means keeping
commitments and resources in balance by pursuing attainable ends that are in
sync with available means. The result is a brand of statecraft that yields
success abroad and support at home.
Today Washington has lost touch with
these conceptual anchors and with Mr. Kissinger’s pragmatic realism. Fueled by
the ideological hubris that emerged at the Cold War’s end, the United States is
coming off two decades of strategic overreach in the Middle East.
Mr. Kissinger tamed relations with China and Russia while
dividing the Communist bloc, but the United States is now in a dangerous
rivalry with both powers that pushes them together.
The ends of U.S. policy are today
outstripping its political means, exacerbating polarization and the appeal of
an America First neoisolationism.
“The acid test of a policy,” as Mr. Kissinger presciently
warned in 1957, is its ability to obtain domestic support.”
Washington would now be wise to
rediscover the practice of realpolitik as a fractured America seeks to navigate
a fractured world.
Mr. Kissinger’s approach to global
affairs was heavily influenced by his interpretation of the history of the
Concert of Europe, a diplomatic forum that preserved great-power peace in
Europe for much of the 19th century.
The subject of his first book (“A
World Restored”), the Concert was founded in 1815 by Britain, Russia, Prussia
and Austria after they had finally defeated Napoleonic France. This great-power
directorate had the good sense to admit France in 1818, turning a vanquished
adversary into a stakeholder in the postwar peace.
The Concert preserved a stable
equilibrium of power by providing a forum in which its members could exercise
mutual restraint and resolve their disputes peacefully. Restraint applied to
ideology as well as to power. Concert members had their political differences, but
the five powers agreed to disagree about the merits of liberal reform versus
absolute monarchy, thereby preventing matters of ideology and domestic
governance from impairing international cooperation. As Mr. Kissinger concluded
in “A World Restored,” the architects of the Concert were “statesmen of the
equilibrium, seeking security in a balance of forces. Their goal was stability,
not perfection.”
Mr. Kissinger turned to restraint to secure his greatest achievement: the U.S.
opening to China in the early 1970s, a move that helped the United States
preserve an equilibrium of power by putting distance between China and the
Soviet Union. China and the United States shared little common ground
ideologically, but Mr. Kissinger, like the Concert architects he was modeling,
was placing interests before values in the service of geopolitical stability.
As relations between Washington and
Beijing matured, he also worked to reduce tensions with Moscow, clearing the
way for détente and laying the groundwork for decades of arms control
agreements. Exercising restraint toward the Soviet Union was about not only
reducing the intensity of East-West rivalry but also responding to the domestic
cleavages opened up by America’s costly war in Vietnam.
Although he initially doubled down
on U.S. involvement in the war, Mr. Kissinger came to appreciate that the
nation was overstretched abroad. He then sought to bring political means and
geopolitical ends back into alignment by withdrawing U.S. forces from Vietnam,
easing tensions with the Soviet Union, and undertaking a broader strategic
retrenchment. He helped shape the Nixon Doctrine, a new strategy that called on
America’s partners abroad to “assume the primary responsibility of providing
the manpower” for their own defense.
In the Middle East, Mr. Kissinger’s
shuttle diplomacy after the 1973 Yom Kippur War laid the groundwork for
Israel’s peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan and effectively brought an end to
decades of war between Israel and its Arab neighbors. He did largely set aside
the Israel-Palestinian piece of the puzzle, focusing instead on incrementally
advancing the cause of regional order. He sought stability, not perfection.
Mr. Kissinger did at times stray from his own realist
moorings. He continued to wield influence after leaving office, lending support
to the launch of NATO enlargement and backing the U.S. invasion of Iraq in
2003, policies that many other realists opposed. But such departures from
pragmatic realism were infrequent for him — and ultimately proved to be
strategic mistakes.
To be sure, Mr. Kissinger’s legacy is stained by the U.S. atrocities
committed during his watch. America’s carpet-bombing of Cambodia from 1969 to
1973 killed upward of 100,000 civilians and helped bring to power the murderous
Khmer Rouge. The United States supported Pakistan during its 1971 slaughter of
Bengalis in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh). Mr. Kissinger backed Gen. Augusto
Pinochet, who in 1973 toppled Chile’s Marxist leader, Salvador Allende, and was
responsible for countless abductions and murders.
Mr. Kissinger may have been more
outspoken in defending his actions than other American statesmen, but he was
hardly alone in pursuing policies that sacrificed U.S. values in the name of
U.S. interests or that caused enormous collateral damage. Throughout the Cold
War and after, successive administrations regularly worked with repressive
regimes in the cause of national security and pursued policies, including
America’s post-9/11 wars in the Middle East, that produced untold and unnecessary
death and destruction.
Mr. Kissinger admittedly turned his
back on American ideals too often and with seemingly little regret — and did
more harm than good to the nation’s security by tarnishing its brand in much of
the developing world. The United States can and should pursue a foreign policy
that more effectively advances the welfare and rights of all peoples. But as a
pragmatic realist steeped in history, Mr. Kissinger understood that in a
dangerous world inescapably afflicted by geopolitical competition, great powers
will often need to put their interests before their values.
It is not only Mr. Kissinger’s reputation that deserves
rehabilitation but also his brand of statecraft. Since the Cold War’s end, the
United States has fallen prey to idealist illusions, convinced that the time
has come to universalize the West’s liberal order. Rather than accommodating a
new equilibrium as power diffuses across the international system, Washington
has been vowing to preserve primacy. Instead of recognizing the limits of U.S.
power and heeding the painful lessons that Mr. Kissinger learned from America’s
futile war in Vietnam, the U.S. military spent the better part of the past two
decades spinning its wheels as it sought to turn Afghanistan and Iraq into stable
democracies.
America’s ends have come to far exceed its political means,
ensuring that a bipartisan internationalist consensus has given way to bitter
polarization.
The U.S. obsession with the
promotion of democracy has not only produced foolhardy bouts of nation building
but has also alienated the many countries that have embraced alternative forms
of government. In his 2014 book, “World Order,” Mr. Kissinger observed that the
United States treats nondemocracies as “less than fully legitimate,” meaning
that “a significant portion of the world lives under a kind of unsatisfactory,
probationary arrangement, and will one day be redeemed.” This approach can
hardly be the basis for stability in today’s world of broadly distributed power
and ideological diversity.
Any effort to return to a U.S.
foreign policy anchored by pragmatic realism must start with China. As China’s
strength and ambition continue to grow, strategic competition with the United
States will inevitably mount. But an interdependent globe cannot afford the
disarray that would accompany geopolitical fracture between the world’s two
pre-eminent powers. As Mr. Kissinger warned, the two countries need to blend “a
balance of power with a concept of partnership,” ensuring that competition is
“mitigated by agreement on norms and reinforced by elements of cooperation.”
That approach would also help wean China away from its partnership with Russia,
an important U.S. objective as it seeks to orchestrate a global equilibrium,
and help the United States and China team up to tackle climate change and other
global challenges.
To be sure, Americans will need to
take a leap of the political imagination if they are to embrace a world that is
ideologically diverse and work with a China whose autocratic ways are at odds
with America’s messianic commitment to spreading democracy. But it was
precisely such pluralism that enabled the Concert to preserve peace in an
ideologically diverse Europe. A more tolerant approach to how other nations
govern themselves would also advance U.S. interests in the Global South, where
Washington’s zealous promotion of democracy at times undercuts its leverage and
influence.
As for Russia, the United States should have done more to
anchor its vanquished adversary in the post-Cold War settlement — just as the
Concert integrated a defeated France into its ranks. Instead, Washington
launched a process of NATO expansion that excluded Russia. Despite his initial
support for NATO enlargement, Mr. Kissinger understood that opening the alliance
to Ukraine would provoke Moscow, writing in 2014
that Ukraine should function as a “bridge” between East and West and that the
country “should not join NATO.” Instead, NATO beckoned Ukraine, contributing to
the sense of grievance and threat that climaxed in Vladimir Putin’s actions
last year.
In the Middle East, just as Mr.
Kissinger advanced the cause of peace in the aftermath of the 1973 war, the
United States should begin a determined diplomatic push at the end of the
current round of bloodshed between Israel and Hamas. The goals should be to
broaden and deepen peace between Israel and its Arab neighbors and to begin
moving toward a two-state solution in which Israelis and Palestinians ultimately
live securely alongside each other. As Mr. Kissinger frequently insisted, order
must be legitimate if it is to last.
Despite his reputation as a callous practitioner of realpolitik, Mr. Kissinger
acknowledged “America’s exceptional nature” and encouraged the United States to
continue to advance “the human quest for freedom.” But he wisely cautioned that
“America’s moral aspirations need to be combined with an approach that takes
into account the strategic element of policy in terms the American people can
support.”
Ever the strategist, Mr. Kissinger,
in one of his last public messages a few months ago, warned that “we must develop a
concept of where we are going and how we intend to get there across party lines
and through political differences. Such is the requirement of leadership.” The
United States would do well to heed his wisdom.
Charles A. Kupchan is a professor of
international affairs at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the
Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author, most recently, of
“Isolationism: A History of America’s Efforts to Shield Itself From the World.”"
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