World Powers, Great and Small

"The Return of Great Powers

By Jim Sciutto

Dutton, 368 pages, $30

Cold War 2.0

By George S. Takach

Pegasus, 432 pages, $32

In "The Return of Great Powers: Russia, China, and the Next World War," Mr. Sciutto depicts a world made more dangerous by Chinese and Russian bravery. Drawing on his experience as CNN's chief national-security correspondent, Mr. Sciutto has written an eye-witness account of history as it unfolds. He brings us back to the early days of  2022 Ukraine events and traces the consequences not only in America and Ukraine but also along European trip wires. In one particularly vivid passage, he writes of Russian aircraft repeatedly buzzing a NATO squadron in the Baltic. He recounts a meeting with Kaja Kallas, the prime minister of Estonia, who tells him that her country fears being abandoned again. "The U.S. doesn't even know where we are."

Mr. Sciutto similarly stresses the growing alarm felt in Taiwan. The Chinese military has been increasingly provocative toward the island in both language and action, repeatedly conducting military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. But, the author points out, there has also been a marked decline in informal political links between Taiwan and China. Taiwanese officials tell Mr. Sciutto that there is considerable uncertainty about whether their communications reach all the way to China's leader, Xi Jinping. In the absence of any confirmation or response, the messages are seen as useless.

Mr. Sciutto's account is largely a familiar one. The world, he reminds us, has become a precarious place, not least for the U.S. The application of new and unconventional technologies, from spy balloons and cyberspace hacking to the weaponization of space assets, exposes the means by which China and Russia are seeking to identify and exploit American vulnerabilities and achieve Great Power status. 

Emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, are affecting weapons development globally, without the sort of frameworks that helped keep earlier power imbalances in check. Not that Russia or China would accept such guardrails, which they would view as limitations on their goal of undermining the West.

George Takach, a former lawyer in the area of technology law, has produced a longer study in "Cold War 2.0: Artificial Intelligence in the New Battle Between China, Russia, and America." The focus here is also on Great Power relationships, but Mr. Takach places his emphasis on technological change.

From this perspective, Taiwan is the more significant actor, both for its position as a technological powerhouse and as a flashpoint of conflict. 

Mr. Takach argues that the main difference between the Cold Wars past and future is the degree to which democracies now rely on the Chinese economy. 

This almost guarantees that all vital technologies -- including semiconductor chips, quantum computers and biotechnology -- are potentially a matter of political and military advantage. Mr. Takach is most concerned, however, with artificial intelligence, because of its ability to make almost all weapons more lethal.

If there is a flaw in China's armor, it lies, Mr. Takach suggests, in the excessive influence that Chinese bureaucrats exert over their country's ability to innovate -- thus conferring a competitive advantage on democracies. Certainly where simpler technologies are concerned -- railways, for example -- fiscally problematic Chinese entities may find it difficult to compete with the financial viability of American freight carriers. Mr. Takach is hopeful that "other important technologies," such as carmaking, shipbuilding, robotics and fusion energy, will similarly benefit. His argument is overoptimistic and unconvincing.

An emphasis of both books is on the leading nations -- and the leaders of the leading nations -- of the world. One problem that Messrs. Sciutto and Takach agree upon is Donald Trump. Mr. Sciutto expresses concern over the former president's apparent lack of interest in the differences between democratic and autocratic governments and portrays him as transactional, a seeker of sound bites and a threat to American security commitments abroad, including in East Asia. Mr. Takach calls Mr. Trump an "autocrat wannabe."

Messrs. Sciutto and Takach are also aware that the actions of smaller states may influence the international system, but both authors seem inclined to underestimate these countries' effect. Indeed, Messrs. Sciutto and Takach appear to share the widespread tendency to assume that the major powers are the driver of the system when in fact they, too, are greatly affected by the actions of smaller participants. North Korea, for example, should have received more attention in both books. 

If there was a lesson to be learned from the two world wars, it is that global conflict can be sparked by the actions of those on a front line, actions that, intentionally or not, propel great powers from confrontation to conflict.

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Mr. Black is the author of "A History of the Second World War in 100 Maps," among many other works." [1]

This why the bellicosity of Lithuanian leaders today is so dangerous. Nobody wants a nuclear war. We, the voters, have to keep this in mind.

1. World Powers, Great and Small. Black, Jeremy.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 12 Mar 2024: A.13.