“He’s got a dangerous left hook.” At the end of his trip to China in February, Chancellor Friedrich Merz was treated to a boxing match in Hangzhou—performed by robots from the company Unitree Robotics. What might seem like a mere curiosity is actually a signal: China is demonstrating robotics not just as a laboratory concept, but as an industrial product. For investors, the question is no longer whether humanoid robots will arrive, but rather how quickly they will evolve from a spectacle into a profitable business model.
Humanoid robots are machines with a physique modeled on the human form—featuring a torso, arms, and usually legs—enabling them to navigate environments designed for humans. And they are smart. While they cannot think like a human—meaning they lack intent and consciousness—they possess a combination of sensor-based perception, interpretation models, and control software that translates a goal into concrete movements. For instance: “Knock him out!”
“The market for humanoid robots is still in the prototype phase,” writes the management consultancy Roland Berger in a study. To date, the technology has been deployed in the dozens rather than the thousands. However, if current trends continue, the economic impact could be substantial. Roland Berger forecasts that the market for humanoid robots could grow to as much as $750 billion by 2035. Experts even anticipate a market value of $4 trillion by 2050—a scale comparable to the automotive industry. Consequently, humanoid robots represent a significant growth opportunity for industrial, automotive, and electronics companies; with projected operating costs of just two dollars per hour, they could become a key driver of major efficiency gains.
So far, the financial impact of this sector remains modest on the balance sheets of the companies entering the field. “But this year, humanoid robotics is entering the phase of productive application,” says Daniel Sailer, head of sustainable investments within the asset management division of Bankhaus Metzler in an interview with the F.A.Z. He and his team have analyzed the market, noting that the disappearance of jobs due to new technology also has social implications. Robots are evolving from rigid capital goods into flexible, AI-driven workers capable of utilizing existing infrastructure without requiring costly factory retooling. But which companies are poised to benefit from this trend in the long run?
While robotics start-ups dominate in the US and China, they exist in Germany as well. For instance, the Metzingen-based start-up Neura Robotics focuses on cognitive robots that use AI to effectively see, hear, and learn. However, major corporations are also looking to tap into this business sector.
"Automakers such as BMW, Mercedes, and Hyundai—the latter via a majority stake in Boston Dynamics—are already testing humanoid fleets in mass production," says Sailer. According to Metzler Asset Management, however, the greatest potential lies outside industrial applications and within the service sector. In elderly and medical care, for example, robots assist with lifting patients. They could also perform simple cleaning tasks. Pilot projects in care facilities and hospitals across Germany, France, and Canada have shown that while robots do not replace caregivers, they can assist with repetitive tasks. This frees up more time for human caregivers to focus on empathetic care.
According to Daniel Körner, however, the robotics industry still has a long, difficult road ahead before it reaches the scale of the automotive sector. "The data is missing," says the technology fund manager at the asset management firm DWS during a press briefing. If a humanoid robot is to unload a dishwasher, developers need precise knowledge of how humans move while performing this task. Such data must be collected. Furthermore, "the hand is the major challenge," says Kröger. Anyone slicing an avocado needs a delicate touch to avoid crushing it beforehand. Additionally, according to the study authors at Roland Berger, robotic hands often last less than a year when used in high-volume operations. Test labs already exist. And according to Sailer from Metzler, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has already halted two vehicle production lines in favor of robotics. Tesla’s website is currently recruiting deep learning and motion planning engineers for "Optimus"—the name given to the company's first robot. "Your task is to create a general-purpose, autonomous, bipedal humanoid robot capable of performing tasks that are unsafe, repetitive, or boring," the site states. There are currently no publicly traded companies that manufacture exclusively humanoid robots. However, the Chinese robot manufacturer Unitree is aiming for an IPO this year. Private investors can gain exposure to this theme through thematic ETFs and funds—such as the Euro iShares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF, the largest of its kind with assets of nearly four billion euros, or the L&G Robo Global Robotics and Automation UCITS ETF, which has a fund volume of just over one billion euros.
However, purchasing such baskets of stocks means investing not only in humanoid robots but in a broad ecosystem comprising automation, software, sensor technology, and computing power. Consequently, the humanoid theme usually enters an investor's portfolio only indirectly—if at all—through suppliers and key technology providers. In the BlackRock iShares ETF, for instance, which charges an annual total expense ratio of 0.4 percent, the ten largest companies account for nearly 40 percent of the total value.
As of the end of March 2026, the largest single holding is Advantest, a Japanese manufacturer of semiconductor test systems. It is followed by the US semiconductor corporation Intel and KLA, a US specialist in process control and metrology for semiconductor manufacturing. Nvidia also ranks among the top ten. For the L&G ETF, the annual total expense ratio is 0.8 percent. The largest single holding is Teradyne, a US corporation specializing in semiconductor test systems. Next in line are the Canadian electronics manufacturing services provider Celestica and the US company Intuitive Surgical, which specializes in surgical robotics.
In Germany, alongside automakers currently building up this business segment, automotive supplier Schaeffler and semiconductor manufacturer Infineon are also pivoting toward this new technology. "In our view, Infineon is the furthest along," says Sailer, noting that the company has established a strategic partnership with chip designer Nvidia. Even the world's most valuable company by market capitalization plans to offer its own robotic solutions.
Infineon could earn around $500 per robot. According to Sailer, the market potential is vast if—as estimates suggest—there is eventually one robot for every eight people. Schaeffler has set a target of generating around one billion euros in additional revenue in this segment. The business unit does not yet show any revenue in the 2025 financial statements. Most recently, the company announced a partnership with China’s Leju Robotics, supplying key components to the robot manufacturer.
According to Metzler Asset Management, the robot's body accounts for 40 percent of the costs, which vary significantly depending on production volume. Sensors represent a major cost component at 37 percent, followed by the battery at around one-fifth. The "brain"—or AI—accounts for only about four percent of the cost. Roland Berger estimates that a robot could cost just $20,000 to $30,000 by 2035 if it enters mass production.
Sailer advises private investors to exercise great caution when investing in this sector. "We would never buy a company solely because of its 'humanoid robotics' business segment." There is a risk that visionary corporations will invest heavily in this new segment without anyone knowing when—or if—it will actually pay off. Furthermore, are there even enough raw materials to produce a billion robots?
Many questions remain unanswered. However, the Metzler study establishes that the development of humanoid robots is driven by more than just technological curiosity; the primary drivers are fundamental economic realities: the global labor shortage and demographic change. Data from the World Bank and the UN Population Division indicate that the European Union, for instance, is facing a population decline after decades of growth. By 2050, it is expected to become the oldest region in the world, with a median age of 48.2 years. Among emerging economies, India is set to overtake China as the world's most populous nation. China’s population is already shrinking and aging rapidly.
The boxing match in Hangzhou was a spectacle. The real test begins when robots are no longer meant merely to impress, but must provide reliable assistance. "From science fiction to reality," writes Roland Berger. Whether this evolves into a viable business model will depend on how reliably they function in everyday life—and at what price.” [1]
1. Wie sich in Robotik anlegen lässt: Humanoide Roboter erwecken den Eindruck spielerischer Science-Fiction. Doch die Branche könnte so groß werden wie die Autoindustrie. So können Anleger davon profitieren. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; Frankfurt. 02 June 2026: 23. Von Sarah Speicher-Utsch, Frankfurt
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