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2024 m. balandžio 17 d., trečiadienis

Why the World Still Needs Immanuel Kant

 

"When I arrived in Berlin in 1982, I was writing a dissertation on Kant’s conception of reason. It was thrilling to learn that the apartment I’d sublet turned out to be located near Kantstrasse, though at the time I wondered in frustration: Why was there no James Street — Henry or William — in the Cambridge, Mass., I’d left behind; no streets honoring Emerson or Eliot? Were Americans as indifferent to culture as snooty Europeans supposed? It didn’t take long before I, too, could walk down Kantstrasse and turn right on Leibniz without a thought.

It’s harder to ignore the way Germany, like other European nations, sets aside entire years to honor its cultural heroes. This century has already seen an Einstein Year, a Beethoven Year, a Luther Year and a Marx Year, each commemorating some round-numbered anniversary of the hero in question. Federal and local governments provide considerable sums for events that celebrate the thinkers in question and debate their contemporary relevance.

Years before Immanuel Kant’s 300th birthday on April 22, 2024, the Academy of Science in Berlin, to which he once belonged, organized a conference to begin preparations for his tercentennial. A second conference published a report of the proceedings, but when I urged colleagues to use the occasion to create programs for a wider audience, I was met with puzzled silence. Reaching a wider audience is not a talent philosophy professors normally cultivate, but conversations with other cultural institutions showed this case to be especially thorny.

It wasn’t just uneasiness about celebrating “another dead white man,” as one museum director put it. The problems became deeper as the zeitgeist changed. “Immanuel Kant: A European Thinker” was a good title for that conference report in 2019, when Brexit seemed to threaten the ideal of European unification Germans supported. Just a few years later, “European” has become a slur. At a time when the Enlightenment is regularly derided as a Eurocentric movement designed to support colonialism, who feels comfortable throwing a yearlong birthday party for its greatest thinker?

Nonetheless, this year’s ceremonies will officially commence on April 22 with a speech by Chancellor Scholz and a memorial lunch that has taken place on the philosopher’s birthday every year since 1805. Two days earlier, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany will open an exhibit at the presidential palace devoted to Kant’s writing on peace.

The start of the year saw special Kant editions of four prominent German magazines. A Kant movie made for television premiered on March 1, and another is in production. Four exhibits on Kant and the Enlightenment will open in Bonn, Lüneburg, Potsdam and Berlin. The conferences will be numerous, including one organized by the Divan, Berlin’s house for Arab culture.

But why celebrate the Kant year at all?

The philosopher’s occasional autobiographical remarks provide a clue to the answer. As the son of a saddle maker, Kant would have led a workman’s life himself, had a pastor not suggested the bright lad deserved some higher education. He came to love his studies and to “despise the common people who knew nothing,” until “Rousseau set me right,” he wrote. Kant rejected his earlier elitism and declared his philosophy would restore the rights of humanity — otherwise they would be more useless than the work of a common laborer.

Chutzpah indeed. The claim becomes even more astonishing if you read a random page of his texts. How on earth, you may ask, are human rights connected with proving our need to think in categories like “cause” or “substance?” The question is seldom raised, and the autobiographical remarks usually ignored, for traditional readings of Kant focus on his epistemology, or theory of knowledge.

Before Kant, it’s said, philosophers were divided between Rationalists and Empiricists, who were concerned about the sources of knowledge. Does it come from our senses, or our reason? Can we ever know if anything is real? By showing that knowledge requires sensory experience as well as reason, we’re told, Kant refuted the skeptics’ worry that we never know if anything exists at all.

All this is true, but it hardly explains why the poet Heinrich Heine found Kant more ruthlessly revolutionary than Robespierre. Nor does it explain why Kant himself said only pedants care about that kind of skepticism. Ordinary people do not fret over the reality of tables or chairs or billiard balls. They do, however, wonder if ideas like freedom and justice are merely fantasies. Kant’s main goal was to show they are not.

The point is often missed, because Kant was as bad a writer as he was a great philosopher. By the time he finishes proving the existence of the objects of ordinary experience and is ready to show how they differ from ideas of reason, the semester is nearly over. Long-windedness is not, however, the only reason his work is often misinterpreted. Consider the effects of a bad review.

Had Kant died before his 57th birthday, he’d be remembered by a few scholars for some short, early texts. He withdrew from writing them in 1770 to conceive and compose his great “Critique of Pure Reason.” After what scholars call his “silent decade,” Kant pulled the text together in six months and finally published in 1781. For a year and a half, Kant waited for responses. When one finally appeared, it was a hatchet job accusing him of being a Berkeleyan solipsist: someone who denies the existence of ordinary objects.

Any author can imagine Kant’s dismay, and most likely his rage. In haste to refute the distortion of his life’s work, Kant wrote a second edition of the “Critique of Pure Reason,” and more fatefully, the “Prolegomena.” Since the latter is much shorter than the main book, it’s read far more often, and this has skewed the interpretation of Kant’s work as a whole. If the major problem of philosophy were proving the world’s existence, then Kant surely solved it. (Richard Rorty argued that he did, and that philosophy has little more to offer.)

In fact Kant was driven by a question that still plagues us: Are ideas like freedom and justice utopian daydreams, or are they more substantial? Their reality can’t be proven like that of material objects, for those ideas make entirely different claims on us — and some people are completely impervious to their claims. Could philosophy show that acting morally, if not particularly common, is at least possible?

A stunning thought experiment answers that question in his next book, the “Critique of Practical Reason.” Kant asks us to imagine a man who says temptation overwhelms him whenever he passes “a certain house.” (The 18th century was discrete.) But if a gallows were constructed to insure the fellow would be hanged upon exiting the brothel, he’d discover he can resist temptation very well. All mortal temptations fade in the face of threats to life itself.

Yet the same man would hesitate if asked to condemn an innocent man to death, even if a tyrant threatened him to execute him instead. Kant always emphasized the limits of our knowledge, and none of us know if we would crumble when faced with death or torture. Most of us probably would. But all of us know what we should do in such a case, and we know that we could.

This experiment shows we are radically free. Not pleasure but justice can move human beings to deeds that overcome the deepest of animal desires, the love of life. We want to determine the world, not only to be determined by it. We are born and we die as part of nature, but we feel most alive when we go beyond it: To be human is to refuse to accept the world we are given.

At the heart of Kant’s metaphysics stands the difference between the way the world is and the way the world ought to be. His thought experiment is an answer to those who argue that we are helpless in the face of pleasure and can be satisfied with bread and circuses — or artisanal chocolate and the latest iPhone. If that were true, benevolent despotism would be the best form of government.

But if we long, in our best moments, for the dignity of freedom and justice, Kant’s example has political consequences. It’s no surprise he thought the French Revolution confirmed our hopes for moral progress — unlike the followers of his predecessor David Hume, who thought it was dangerous to stray from tradition and habit.

This provides an answer to contemporary critics whose reading of Kant’s work focuses on the ways in which it violates our understanding of racism and sexism. Some of his remarks are undeniably offensive to 21st-century ears. But it’s fatal to forget that his work gave us the tools to fight racism and sexism, by providing the metaphysical basis of every claim to human rights.

Kant argued that each human being must be treated as an end and not as a means — which is why he called colonialism “evil” and congratulated the Chinese and Japanese for denying entry to European invaders. Contemporary dismissals of Enlightenment thinkers forget that those thinkers invented the concept of Eurocentrism, and urged their readers to consider the world from non-European perspectives. Montesquieu put his criticisms of French society in the mouths of fictitious Persians; Lahontan attacked European politics through dialogues with a Native American.

At a time when the advice to “be realistic” is best translated as the advice to decrease your expectations, Kant’s work asks deep questions about what reality is. He insisted that when we think morally, we should abstract from the cultural differences that divide us and recognize the potential human dignity in every human being. This requires the use of our reason. Contrary to trendy views that see reason as an instrument of domination, Kant saw reason’s potential as a tool for liberation.

He also argued that political and social relations must aim toward justice rather than power, however often those may be confused in practice. We’ve come to better understand how racism and sexism can preclude genuine universalism. Should we discard Kant’s commitment to universalism because he did not fully realize it himself — or rather celebrate the fact that we can make moral progress, an idea which Kant would wholeheartedly applaud?

In Germany, it’s now common to hear that the Enlightenment was at very best ambivalent. While it may have been an age of reason, it was also an age of slavery and colonialism: This argument ignores the fact that, like progressive intellectuals everywhere, Enlightenment thinkers did not win all their battles. It also neglects the fact that they fought for them anyway, despite the risks of censorship, exile and even death.

Significantly, many contemporary intellectuals from formerly colonized countries reject those arguments. Thinkers like the Ghanaian Ato Sekyi-Otu, the Nigerian Olufemi Taiwo, the Chilean Carlos Peña, the Brazilian Francisco Bosco or the Indian Benjamin Zachariah are hardly inclined to renounce Enlightenment ideas as Eurocentric.

The problem with ideas like universal human rights is not that they come from Europe, but that they were not realized outside of it. Perhaps we should take a lesson from the Enlightenment and listen to non-Western standpoints?" [1]

1. Why the World Still Needs Immanuel Kant: Essay. Neiman, Susan.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Apr 17, 2024.

 

Ko iš tikrųjų reikėtų, kad kiltų dar vienas Amerikos pilietinis karas

„O kaip antroji Trumpo administracija, kaip kibirkštis, atsižvelgiant į tai, kaip baigėsi paskutinė Trumpo administracija? O sausio 6 d.? O kaip būtų, kad turėtume dvišališkesnį požiūrį, protestų už juodųjų teises ir smurto bangos 2020 m. vasarą, miestai, degantys liepsnose, ašarinės dujos prie Baltųjų rūmų? 

 

Ar tada amerikiečiai nerodė apetito tarpusavio konfliktams?

 

     Atsakymas yra toks, kad jie tai padarė, nors ir iki 1860-ųjų lygio buvo toli. Tačiau gedimas įvyko tik pandemijos metais, esant nepaprastai neįprastoms sąlygoms ir spaudimui, kurių dauguma žmonių niekada anksčiau nebuvo patyrę. Kartą per šimtmetį įvykęs pasaulinis maras ir precedento neturintis visuomenės uždarymas karantinuose, susiliejęs su smarkiais rinkimais, iš tikrųjų pralaužė mano aprašomą audrą, virtualų vaidinimą pavertė tikra statulos puošyba ir dešiniąją svajonių politiką laikinai pavertė realia. 

 

Šia prasme 2020 m. parodė, kad bet koks bendras modelis ar tendencija gali būti sutrikdyta, atsižvelgiant į, beprotiškai atrodančias, aplinkybes ir egzistencinės krizės mentalitetą.

 

     Tačiau kai aplinkybės normalizavosi, protesto politikos patrauklumas išsisklaidė. Nebuvo jokių tolesnių veiksmų po sausio 6 d. dešinėje, jokios sukilimo smurto bangos, kurią vykdė tikri tikintys prezidento Bideno neteisėtumu, neskubėjo prisijungti prie „Proud Boys“ paprasti dešinieji. Lygiai taip pat ir kairėje, rasinis skaičiavimas vėl buvo įtrauktas į biurokratinę politiką, Sietlo „CHAZ“ komuna buvo išardyta, o ne imituojama, antifa vėl pasitraukė į šešėlį. Ne tai, kad išnyko protestų politika (pamatykite įvairius ardančius protestus Palestinos vardu) ar ekstremizmas, bet abu šie dalykai nepaprastai greitai grįžo į išskirtinumo karalystę.

 

     Taigi, jei jums tikrai būtų įdomu, ko reikėtų, kad Jungtinės Valstijos iš tikrųjų pasinertų į ginkluotą konfliktą, būtų suskirstytos į kariaujančias stovyklas, o ne tik poliarizuotus rinkėjų blokus, 2020 m. pamoka yra ta, kad turėtumėte ieškoti kokių nors plyšimų, kažkokios pasaulį sukrėtusios išorinės ar vidinės jėgos, kaip būtinos prielaidos.

 

     Galbūt, pandemija, kuri daug blogesnė, nei Covid, kuri skatina valstijas uždaryti sienas ir suskaldo šalį daug labiau ir žiauriau, nei skirtumas tarp, tarkime, Niujorko ir Floridos pandemijos politikos.

 

     Galbūt, didelis pralaimėjimas kare ir ekonominė krizė – Kinija užėmė Taivaną, Šiaurės Korėja užkariavo Pietų Korėją, akcijų rinka griūva, žlugus Pax Americana, diskredituotos institucijos susiduria su naujomis demagogijos ir maišto formomis.

 

     Galbūt, koks nors radikalus technologinis vystymasis dirbtinio intelekto ribose, performuojantis įprasto gyvenimo kontūrus ir sukuriantis naujas utopizmo ar desperacijos nuotaikas.

 

     Galbūt, tikra klimato krizė, ne tik lėtai kylanti temperatūra, bet ir vienas iš pasaulinės nelaimės „rizikos uodegos“ scenarijų." [1]


1. What It Would Really Take to Have an American Civil War: Ross Douthat. Douthat, Ross.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Apr 17, 2024.

What It Would Really Take to Have One More American Civil War


"What about a second Trump administration as the spark, given the way the last Trump administration ended? What about Jan. 6? What about, to be more bipartisan, the waves of protest and violence in the summer of 2020, the cities on fire, the tear gas outside the White House? Didn’t Americans show an appetite for internecine conflict then?

The answer is that they did, albeit up to a well-short-of-the-1860s point. But the breakdown happened only in the pandemic year, under extremely unusual conditions and pressures most people had never experienced before. A once-in-a-century global plague and an unprecedented shutdown of society converging with a fraught election did, indeed, break through the torpor I’m describing, turn virtual playacting into actual statue-topping and make right-wing dreampolitik temporarily real. In that sense, 2020 showed that any general pattern or trend can be disrupted, given insane-seeming circumstances and a mentality of existential crisis.

But once the circumstances normalized, the appeal of protest politics dissipated. There was no follow-up to Jan. 6 on the right, no wave of insurrectionary violence carried out by true believers in President Biden’s illegitimacy, no rush to join the Proud Boys by ordinary right-wingers. Likewise on the left, the racial reckoning was subsumed back into bureaucratic politics, the “CHAZ” commune in Seattle was dismantled rather than imitated, antifa receded back into the shadows. It’s not that protest politics disappeared (witness the various disruptive protests on behalf of Palestine) or extremism vanished, but both returned to the realm of the exceptional remarkably swiftly.

So if you were really interested in what it would take for the United States to actually plunge into armed conflict, to be divided into warring camps and not just polarized blocs of voters, the lesson of 2020 is that you should be looking for some kind of rupture, some world-shaking external or internal force, as the necessary precondition.

Maybe a pandemic substantially worse than Covid, which prompts states to close their borders and splits the country much more completely and viciously than did the difference between, say, New York and Florida’s pandemic policies.

Maybe a great defeat in war and an economic crisis — China taking Taiwan, North Korea overrunning South Korea, the stock market melting down as the Pax Americana topples, a discredited establishment facing new forms of demagogy and revolt.

Maybe some radical technological development, out on the frontiers of A.I., that reshapes the contours of normal life and creates new moods of utopianism or desperation.

Maybe a true climate crisis, not just slowly rising temperatures but one of the “tail risk” scenarios for global disaster." [1]


1. What It Would Really Take to Have an American Civil War: Ross Douthat. Douthat, Ross.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Apr 17, 2024.

„Tesla“ pritrūksta laiko savarankiškam vairavimui --- Panašu, kad elektrinių transporto priemonių pradininkė savo augimo viltis perkelia į dar neįrodytą automatinio vairavimo technologiją

   „Jei „Tesla“ nori būti vertinama kaip dirbtinio intelekto įmonė, o ne tik automobilių gamintoja, ji turi pateikti tvirtų duomenų, kad pagrįstų jos teiginius.

 

     Elektrinių transporto priemonių pradininkė mažina dešimtadalį savo darbo jėgos. Jos vyriausiasis vadovas, atsakingas už jėgos pavaros ir energijos inžineriją, Drew Baglino taip pat sakė, kad palieka po 18 metų darbo kompanijoje „Tesla“.

 

     Šios naujausios žinios, dėl kurių akcijos pirmadienį nukrito daugiau, nei 5%, atitinka naujausią modelį, rodantį strateginį poslinkį.

 

     Panašu, kad „Tesla“ pirmenybę teikia jos pastangoms, kad automobiliai taptų autonomiški, o ne ankstesniam sparčiam pardavimų augimui.

 

     Generalinis direktorius Elonas Muskas šį mėnesį tviteryje paskelbė, kad rugpjūčio 8 dieną bendrovė pristatys ilgai lauktą be vairuotojo „Tesla“ arba „robotaksį“.

 

     Darbuotojams buvo pasakyta, kad robotaksi dabar yra didesnis prioritetas, nei pigesnis „Tesla“ modelis, kuris anksčiau rėmė augimo lūkesčius, pranešė „The Wall Street Journal“.

 

     Dabartinė „Tesla“ vairuotojo automatizavimo programinė įranga gali atlikti daugumą vairavimo užduočių, tačiau vis tiek reikalauja, kad vairuotojai stebėtų kelią ir prireikus įsikištų.

 

     Bendrovė agresyviau skatino jos galimybes po to, kai praeitų metų pabaigoje buvo išleistas atnaujinimas, kuris pakeitė kai kuriuos žmogaus parašytus kodus dirbtiniu intelektu.

 

     Penktadienį „Tesla“ perpus sumažino pažangiausio bendrovės paketo, vadinamo „Visiškai autonominiu vairavimu (Full Self-Driving)“ arba FSD, prenumeratos kainą iki 99 dolerių per mėnesį.

 

     Perėjimas nuo transporto priemonės prie programinės įrangos pardavimo gali būti priežastis, kodėl Baglino pasitraukė iš geriausio bendrovės techninės įrangos inžinieriaus posto. Pripažinimas, kad bendrovė neparduos tiek automobilių, kiek tikėjosi, gali paaiškinti darbo vietų mažinimą, kuris taip pat turės įtakos gamyklos darbuotojams. 2022 m., kai paskutinį kartą „Tesla“ paskelbė apie atleidimus, sumažinimai palietė tik samdomus darbuotojus, o darbuotojų skaičius išaugo.

 

     Kodėl Tesla turėtų perkelti dėmesį? Akivaizdžiausia priežastis yra ta, kad dabartinė jos strategija neveikia: sumažinus kainas nepavyko išlaikyti tikslinio pardavimo augimo lėtėjančioje elektromobilių rinkoje. Labiausiai pastebimas jų poveikis buvo „Tesla“ maržos sumažinimas, sumažinant pelno lūkesčius ir akcijų kainą.

 

     Vis dėlto būtent šią problemą turėjo spręsti naujos kartos Tesla. Jei projektas atidedamas, gali būti, kad Muskas praranda pasitikėjimą bendrovės gebėjimu įveikti inžinerinį iššūkį – sukurti pigų, patrauklų ir pelningą elektromobilį.

 

     Kompaktiški automobiliai buvo sunkus verslas automobilių pramonei, net nepridėjus brangių elektromobilių akumuliatorių ir neseniai atvykusių konkurentų iš Kinijos.

 

     Dosnesnis aiškinimas yra tas, kad Muskas įgauna pasitikėjimo bendrovės programinės įrangos galimybėmis, todėl „Tesla“ gali iš naujo pabrėžti alternatyvią augimo strategiją, kurią anksčiau užgožė „Models 3“ ir „Y“ sėkmė.

 

      Programinės įrangos pardavimas jau seniai buvo pelningesnis verslas, nei automobilių pardavimas – jau nekalbant apie vienintelį dalyką, kuris galėtų pateisinti Teslos negabaritinį vertinimą. Taigi, jei įmonė iš tikrųjų mato veiksmingą vairuotojų automatizavimo produktą, prioriteto suteikimas jam yra akivaizdi strategija.

 

     Problema yra tas „jeigu“: Muskas jau seniai žadėjo, kad autonomija yra visai šalia. Jis yra „berniukas, kuris šaukė FSD“, kaip jis sakė praėjusiais metais. Tai kodėl dabar investuotojai turėtų juo tikėti?

 

     Akcininkai aiškumo dėl bendrovės strategijos ieškos kitą savaitę, kai surengs pokalbį aptarti pirmojo ketvirčio rezultatų. Tačiau jei iš tikrųjų vyksta perėjimas nuo aparatinės įrangos prie programinės įrangos, „Tesla“ turi suteikti investuotojams priežasčių manyti, kad naujausios kalbos apie FSD ir robotaksį yra daugiau, nei tie patys senieji pažadai.

 

     Dabartiniai įrodymai yra anekdotiniai, nes „Tesla“ vairuotojai socialinėje žiniasklaidoje skelbia savo nuomonę apie naujausią FSD versiją.

 

      Vienintelis dalykas, kurio investuotojai turi pasiremti, yra ilgėjanti sąskaita. Praėjusiais metais „Tesla“ padidino išlaidas moksliniams tyrimams ir plėtrai, nors augimas sulėtėjo, o tai padidino maržos spaudimą dėl transporto priemonių kainų mažinimo.

 

     Pradžia būtų nurodyti „Tesla“ savininkų, įsigijusių FSD arba užsisakiusių jį, skaičių. Iš esmės įmonė turi apibrėžti, atskleisti ir nukreipti gaminio našumo metriką, pvz., kiek vidutiniškai nueina, kol žmonėms reikia įsikišti, ir kaip tai pasikeitė, laikui bėgant. Tai ne tik investuotojams; taip pat reikia įtraukti reguliavimo institucijas ir visuomenę.

 

     Tik išsamiai ir patikimai atskleidus FSD veiklą, paaiškės, kada „Tesla“ gali pagalvoti apie teisinės atsakomybės už vairavimo funkcijas prisiėmimą, atveriant kelią tikrai autonominiam robotaksi. 

 

Rugpjūčio mėnesio atskleidimas gali pasirodyti, kaip raudonoji silkė, atsižvelgiant į vėlavimą tarp ankstesnių produktų pristatymų ir paruoštos rinkai produkcijos. „Tesla“ „Cybertruck“ gamyba prasidėjo praėjus ketveriems metams po jo pristatymo ir lėtai auga. Investuotojai gali džiaugtis dėl „Tesla“ planų sukurti kompaktišką elektromobilį dėl jos pasiekimų su „Model 3“ ir „Y“. Turėdama autonomiją, bendrovė vis dar turi viską įrodyti." [1]


1. Tesla Runs Out of Time on Self Driving --- Electric-vehicle pioneer seems to be shifting its growth hopes to the unproven technology of automated driving. Wilmot, Stephen.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 17 Apr 2024: B.13.

Tesla Runs Out of Time on Self Driving --- Electric-vehicle pioneer seems to be shifting its growth hopes to the unproven technology of automated driving


"If Tesla wants to be seen as an artificial-intelligence company rather than just a carmaker, it needs to come up with hard data to back its claims.

The electric-vehicle pioneer is cutting a 10th of its workforce. Its top executive in charge of powertrain and energy engineering, Drew Baglino, also said he was leaving after 18 years at Tesla.

This latest news, which sent the shares down more than 5% on Monday, fits a recent pattern pointing to a strategic shift. 

Tesla seems to be giving priority to its efforts to make cars autonomous over its previous pursuit of the rapid sales growth.

Chief Executive Elon Musk tweeted this month that the company would unveil a long-awaited driverless Tesla or "robotaxi" on August 8. 

Employees have been told the robotaxi is now a higher priority than the cheaper Tesla model that previously underpinned expectations for growth, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Tesla's current driver-automation software can perform most driving tasks but still requires human drivers to keep their eyes on the road and intervene where necessary. 

The company has promoted its capabilities more aggressively since the release of an update late last year that replaced some human-written code with artificial intelligence.

On Friday Tesla halved the price of a subscription to $99 a month for the company's most advanced package, called "Full Self-Driving" or FSD. 

A pivot from vehicle to software sales could be a reason for Baglino's departure as the company's top hardware engineer. A recognition that the company won't sell as many cars as it hoped might explain the job cuts, which will affect factory workers too. In 2022, the last time Tesla announced layoffs, the cuts affected only salaried employees and its head count grew.

Why would Tesla shift focus? The most obvious reason is that its current strategy isn't working: Price cuts haven't succeeded in keeping its targeted sales growth on track in a slowing EV market. Their most noticeable effect has been to trim Tesla's margins, reducing profit expectations and the share price.

Still, this was precisely the problem the next-generation Tesla was supposed to address. If the project is being delayed, it could be Musk is losing confidence in the company's capacity to master the engineering challenge of making an EV that is cheap, attractive and profitable. 

Compact cars have been a tough business for the car industry, even without the addition of expensive EV batteries and the recent arrival of competitors from China.

A more generous interpretation is that Musk is gaining confidence in the company's software capabilities, allowing Tesla to re-emphasize an alternative growth strategy that was previously overshadowed by the success of the Models 3 and Y.

 Selling software has long been a more lucrative business than selling cars -- not to mention the only thing that could justify Tesla's outsize valuation. So if the company actually has sight of a workable driver-automation product, giving it priority is a strategic no-brainer.

The problem is this "if": Musk has a long record of promising that autonomy is just around the corner. He is "the boy who cried FSD," as he said last year. So why should investors believe him now?

Shareholders will look for clarity on the company's strategy next week, when it will hold a call to discuss its first-quarter results. But if a pivot from hardware to software is indeed under way, Tesla needs to give investors reasons to believe the latest talk of FSD and robotaxis amounts to more than just the same old promises.

The current evidence is anecdotal, as Tesla drivers air their opinions of the latest version of FSD on social media.

 Just about the only hard data investors have to go on is a lengthening bill. Tesla boosted spending on research and development last year even as growth slowed, adding to the margin squeeze from vehicle price cuts.

Giving the number of Tesla owners who bought FSD or subscribe to it would be a start. More fundamentally, the company needs to define, disclose and target metrics for the product's performance, such as how far it goes on average before human drivers need to intervene and how that changed over time. This isn't just for investors; regulators and the public also need to be brought on board.

Only with detailed, trustworthy disclosures on FSD's performance will it become clear when Tesla might think about taking legal responsibility for driving functions, paving the way for a genuinely autonomous robotaxi. The August reveal could prove to be a red herring, given the delay between past product unveils and road-ready output. Production of Tesla's Cybertruck started four years after its unveiling, and has been slow to increase.

Investors could get behind Tesla's plans for a compact EV because of its record with the Model 3 and Y. With autonomy, the company still has everything to prove." [1]

1. Tesla Runs Out of Time on Self Driving --- Electric-vehicle pioneer seems to be shifting its growth hopes to the unproven technology of automated driving. Wilmot, Stephen.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 17 Apr 2024: B.13.