Lithuania Is Now Competing with Rich Japan and South Korea for Expensive Natural Gas. --- And cheap Russian gas, which we used to get from the Russians before the sanctions, is being used by the Chinese, thanks to which they are introducing artificial intelligence into the Chinese economy at an ever faster rate. This is a threat to the entire West

This insight very accurately captures the shift in global energy geopolitics caused by Western sanctions against Russia. It is necessary to note a fundamental break: Lithuania and Europe have abandoned cheap Russian fossil fuels and are now competing on the global market, while China is using this to strengthen its economic and technological advantage.

Here is how this situation looks in detail, assessing real economic and technological processes:

1. Competition with Japan and the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market

• Common global market: Having abandoned Russian gas supplied via pipelines, Europe (including Lithuania, which uses the ⁠Klaipėda LNG terminal) has reoriented to liquefied natural gas (LNG). Since LNG is transported by ship, Lithuania and the whole of Europe have been directly involved in a price war with Asian countries, especially with such rich countries as Japan and South Korea.

• Price pressure: When geopolitical tensions arise in Asia or the Middle East (for example, unrest around the Strait of Hormuz), ⁠LNG prices on the Asian JKM exchange jump up, which automatically makes gas more expensive on the European ⁠TTF exchange. This means that Lithuanian industry and consumers pay a “global premium” for energy security.

2. Cheap Russian gas for China: reality and nuances

• Huge discounts: Russia, having lost its main European market, has become critically dependent on China. China takes advantage of this and buys Russian oil, coal and gas (via the Power of Siberia pipeline) with powerful discounts set by the ⁠Beijing government itself. Western sanctions have paradoxically given Chinese industry the advantage of cheaper energy.

• Limited logistics: However, Russia cannot divert all of its gas destined for Europe to China. The pipeline infrastructure from Western Siberia to China (the Power of Siberia 2 project) is still stalled due to China’s reluctance to commit to long-term prices that would benefit Moscow. As a result, Russia is currently selling less gas to China than it previously sold to Europe.

3. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Energy Demand

• Data centers require energy: This observation about AI and energy is particularly insightful. Large AI models and supercomputers require enormous amounts of electricity to power and cool data centers. Cheap Russian energy resources allow China to generate electricity more cheaply, which directly reduces the cost of maintaining AI infrastructure.

• China’s strategic plan: China is pursuing a massive program to integrate AI into 90 percent of its real economy (manufacturing, logistics, heavy industry). The synergy of cheap energy with technological determinism actually allows China to accelerate the processes that the West is trying to implement in the face of more expensive energy and stricter environmental requirements.

4. Threat to Western competitiveness

Western analysts agree with this conclusion: this poses a long-term danger.

• Asymmetry: While Western countries (including Lithuania) invest billions in the transformation of expensive energy infrastructure (transition to green energy, maintenance of LNG terminals), China receives cheap baseload energy for production.

• Technological race: If China manages to automate its factories faster and cheaper using AI, Western goods will lose competitiveness not only due to cheap Chinese labor, but also due to higher Chinese technological efficiency.

 

Summary: the scenario we have described is a real geopolitical drama. Lithuania chose energy independence from the Russians but pays a higher price for it in the global LNG market. Meanwhile, China is cynically exploiting the situation, buying up Russian resources for a pittance and channeling the savings into future technology and AI dominance, which is indeed a serious challenge to the entire Western world. We, Lithuanians, are playing the role of fools, participating in the drowning of the Western world, on the exports to which we now heavily depend. Where is the Lithuanian minister of foreign affairs Budrys? Hiding in the closet? This is very Lithuanian.

 

Even Elektrum Lietuva feels that something is wrong here:

 

“In the second half of the year, fluctuations in electricity prices may be increased by geopolitical tension, the situation on the gas market and a hot summer.

 

In the second half of this year, the dynamics of electricity prices may be less predictable for businesses than at the beginning of the year. This does not mean that the market can already predict one clear scenario of a price increase, but the factors increasing uncertainty are increasing.

 

Fluctuations in electricity prices may be determined not only by changes in local electricity production or weather conditions in the Baltic States, but also by the broader European energy situation – gas prices, limited filling of gas storage facilities, geopolitical tension, energy supply routes and a potentially hot and dry summer.

 

For businesses, this means that when planning the second half of the year, it is important to take into account not only the baseline electricity price scenario, but also the possible amplitude of price fluctuations. In other words, it is important to prepare for not one most likely scenario, but several possible market options.

Electricity prices will be shaped not only by local production

 

Electricity prices in the Baltic countries increasingly depend on the energy balance of the whole of Europe. Local solar, wind or hydropower production remains important, but the direction of electricity prices in the second half of the year may also be determined by the gas market.

 

Gas-fired power plants still act as a price-forming source in many European markets during peak hours. Therefore, more expensive gas in Europe usually also means greater pressure on electricity prices.

 

It is important for Lithuanian businesses to understand that the price of electricity today is not only the result of the local market. If gas prices increase in Europe, if competition for liquefied natural gas cargoes increases or supply chain disruptions occur, this may also be reflected in electricity prices in the Baltic region. Even if renewable energy production is increasing in our region, the price during peak hours is often formed by more expensive production sources.

 

In recent months, electricity prices have already been affected by the situation in the Nordic countries – drier weather, lower hydropower availability, weaker wind production and higher demand. At the same time, gas price movements, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, have also increased pressure on electricity prices.

Gas storage and supply routes – one of the most sensitive risks

 

One of the most important factors of uncertainty is the level of filling of European gas storage facilities. If storage facilities are filled less than usual in late spring or early summer, countries have to actively replenish reserves in the summer and autumn. This can increase competition for gas and keep prices sensitive to geopolitical news.

 

Additional risks arise from energy supply routes. Tensions in the Middle East, possible disruptions to the supply of liquefied natural gas through strategically important routes, including the Strait of Hormuz, and risks to Qatar’s LNG infrastructure may affect not only the Asian but also the European market. Disruptions in this region could renew competition between Europe and Asia for the same LNG cargoes.

 

The gas market today is global. If supply is disrupted in one region, it is also felt in Europe, as buyers compete for the same cargoes. And when the gas price in Europe remains high, it also increases the risk of electricity prices. Therefore, when assessing the second half of the year, businesses should monitor not only Nord Pool prices, but also the TTF gas market, the rate of filling storage facilities and geopolitical risks.

Hot summer may increase consumption

 

Another important factor is the weather. With forecasters predicting a hot summer, the demand for electricity for cooling is likely to increase, especially in the trade, logistics, office, manufacturing and service sectors. At the same time, drier weather may reduce hydropower production in the Nordic countries, which have a significant impact on the price level in the region.

 

Heat has a two-way effect on the electricity market. On the one hand, consumption for cooling increases. On the other hand, if the summer is dry, the supply of hydropower decreases. If these factors coincide with more expensive gas or geopolitical tensions, electricity price fluctuations may be more pronounced.

 

One factor in itself does not necessarily cause a price jump. However, the coincidence of several risks – a hot summer, lower hydropower production, limited filling of gas storage facilities and more expensive gas – may mean a higher cost planning risk for businesses.

Businesses should review their electricity purchasing strategy

 

The second half of the year should be a period for businesses when it is worth reassessing their electricity supply contracts, pricing model and risk tolerance.

 

For companies for which electricity constitutes a significant part of their operating costs, simply passively waiting can be risky. Depending on the consumption profile and financial planning, several solutions may be relevant for businesses: price fixing, a mixed model, when part of the consumption is fixed and part remains tied to the exchange, or more active consumption management, moving some processes to cheaper hours.

 

At the moment, the most important thing is not to try to accurately predict one price scenario, but to prepare for several possible market options. If the situation in the gas market stabilizes, weather conditions are favorable, and supply risks decrease, pressure on electricity prices may be limited. However, the alternative scenario – a hot and dry summer, lower hydropower supply, slower gas storage filling and geopolitical supply disruptions – would be much more difficult for business.

 

The most resilient will be those companies that view electricity purchasing as part of financial risk management, and not just as a choice of supplier. The larger the share of a company’s costs that electricity makes up, the more important it is to have a clear purchasing strategy: what risk of price fluctuations the company can assume, whether the current plan is in line with the budget, whether it is worth fixing part of the price, and how much flexibility the company has in consumption management.

 

During periods of uncertainty, those companies that plan in advance, rather than reacting only after prices have already risen. A clear strategy, partial price fixing and consumption flexibility can help manage cost fluctuations.

 

The author of the insight is Mantas Masalskis, Head of Business Solutions at Elektrum Lietuva.”

 

 

 

Lietuva dabar dėl brangių gamtinių dujų konkuruoja su turtingomis Japonija ir Pietų Korėja. O pigias rusų dujas, kurios iki sankcijų rusams tekdavo mums, naudoja kinai, to dėka diegdami dirbtinį intelektą į Kinijos ekonomika vis greičiau. Tai grėsmė visiems Vakarams

 

Ši įžvalga labai tiksliai apčiuopia globalios energijos geopolitikos poslinkį, kurį sukėlė Vakarų sankcijos Rusijai. Reikia pastebėti esminį lūžį: Lietuva ir Europa atsisakė pigaus rusiško iškastinio kuro ir dabar konkuruoja pasaulinėje rinkoje, o Kinija tuo naudojasi savo ekonominiam bei technologiniam pranašumui stiprinti.

Štai kaip ši situacija atrodo detalizuotai, vertinant realius ekonominius ir technologinius procesus:

1. Konkurencija su Japonija ir suskystintųjų gamtinių dujų (SGD) rinka

•           Bendra pasaulinė rinka: Atsisakiusi vamzdynais tiektų rusiškų dujų, Europa (įskaitant Lietuvą, naudojančią  ⁠Klaipėdos SGD terminalą) persiorientavo į suskystintas gamtines dujas (SGD). Kadangi SGD gabenamos laivais, Lietuva ir visa Europa tiesiogiai įsitraukė į kainų karą su Azijos šalimis, ypač su tokiomis turtingomis valstybėmis kaip Japonija ir Pietų Korėja.

•           Kainų spaudimas: Kai Azijoje ar Artimuosiuose Rytuose kyla geopolitinė įtampa (pavyzdžiui, neramumai aplink Ormūzo sąsiaurį),  ⁠SGD kainos Azijos JKM biržoje šokteli į viršų, o tai automatiškai pabrangina dujas ir Europos  ⁠TTF biržoje. Tai reiškia, kad Lietuvos pramonė ir vartotojai moka „pasaulinę premiją“ už energetinį saugumą.

2. Pigios rusiškos dujos Kinijai: realybė ir niuansai

•           Didžiulės nuolaidos: Rusija, netekusi pagrindinės Europos rinkos, tapo kritiškai priklausoma nuo Kinijos. Kinija tuo naudojasi ir perka rusišką naftą, anglį bei dujas (per vamzdyną „Sibirijos galia“) su galingomis nuolaidomis, kurias nustato pati  ⁠Pekino vyriausybė. Vakarų sankcijos paradoksaliai suteikė Kinijos pramonei pigesnės energijos pranašumą.

•           Ribota logistika: Vis dėlto Rusija negali visų Europai skirtų dujų nukreipti Kinijai. Dujotiekių infrastruktūra iš Vakarų Sibiro į Kiniją (projektas „Sibirijos galia 2“) vis dar stringa dėl Kinijos nenoro įsipareigoti ilgalaikėms kainoms, kurios būtų naudingos Maskvai. Todėl Rusija šiuo metu parduoda mažesnį kiekį dujų Kinijai, nei anksčiau parduodavo Europai.

3. Dirbtinis intelektas (DI) ir energijos poreikis

•           Duomenų centrai reikalauja energijos: šis pastebėjimas apie DI ir energiją yra itin įžvalgus. Didieji dirbtinio intelekto modeliai ir superkompiuteriai reikalauja milžiniško elektros energijos kiekio duomenų centrams maitinti ir vėsinti. Pigūs rusiški energijos ištekliai leidžia Kinijai pigiau gaminti elektrą, o tai tiesiogiai mažina DI infrastruktūros palaikymo kaštus.

•           Strateginis Kinijos planas: Kinija vykdo masinę programą, siekdama  ⁠integruoti DI į 90 proc. savo realiosios ekonomikos (gamybą, logistiką, sunkiąją pramonę). Pigios energijos sinergija su technologiniu determinizmu iš tiesų leidžia Kinijai greitinti procesus, kuriuos Vakarai bando įgyvendinti esant brangesnei energijai ir griežtesniems aplinkosaugos reikalavimams.

4. Grėsmė Vakarų konkurencingumui

Vakarų analitikai sutinka su šia išvada: tai kelia ilgalaikį pavojų.

•           Asimetrija: Kol Vakarų valstybės (įskaitant Lietuvą) investuoja milijardus į brangios energetinės infrastruktūros transformaciją (perėjimą prie žaliosios energetikos, SGD terminalų išlaikymą), Kinija gauna pigią bazinę energiją gamybai.

•           Technologinės lenktynės: Jei Kinija sugebės greičiau ir pigiau automatizuoti savo gamyklas, naudodama DI, Vakarų prekės praras konkurencingumą ne tik dėl pigios kinų darbo jėgos, bet ir dėl aukštesnio kinų technologinio efektyvumo.

Reziumė: mūsų aprašytas scenarijus yra reali geopolitinė drama. Lietuva pasirinko energetinę nepriklausomybę nuo rusų, tačiau už tai moka aukštesne kaina pasaulinėje SGD rinkoje. Tuo tarpu Kinija ciniškai išnaudoja situaciją, pirkdama rusiškus resursus pusvelčiui ir nukreipdama sutaupytas lėšas į ateities technologijų bei DI dominavimą, o tai iš tiesų yra rimtas iššūkis visam Vakarų pasauliui. Mes, lietuviai, atliekame kvailių vaidmenį, dalyvaudami, skandinant Vakarų pasaulį, nuo eksporto į kurį dabar stipriai priklausome. Kur Budrys? Pasislėpė spintoje? Tai yra labai lietuviška.

Net „Elektrum Lietuva“ jaučia, kad kažkas čia negerai:

“Antrąjį pusmetį elektros kainų svyravimus gali didinti geopolitinė įtampa, dujų rinkos situacija ir karšta vasara.

 

Antrąjį šių metų pusmetį elektros kainų dinamika verslui gali būti mažiau nuspėjama nei metų pradžioje. Tai nereiškia, kad rinkoje jau dabar galima prognozuoti vieną aiškų kainų šuolio scenarijų, tačiau neapibrėžtumą didinančių veiksnių daugėja.

 

Elektros kainų svyravimus gali lemti ne tik vietinės elektros gamybos ar oro sąlygų Baltijos šalyse pokyčiai, bet ir platesnė Europos energetikos situacija – dujų kainos, ribotas dujų saugyklų užpildymas, geopolitinė įtampa, energijos išteklių tiekimo keliai bei galimai karšta ir sausa vasara.

 

Verslui tai reiškia, kad planuojant antrąjį metų pusmetį svarbu vertinti ne vien bazinį elektros kainos scenarijų, bet ir galimą kainų svyravimo amplitudę. Kitaip tariant, svarbu pasiruošti ne vienam labiausiai tikėtinam scenarijui, o keliems galimiems rinkos variantams.

Elektros kainą formuos ne tik vietinė gamyba

 

Baltijos šalių elektros kainos vis labiau priklauso nuo visos Europos energetikos balanso. Vietinė saulės, vėjo ar hidroenergijos gamyba išlieka svarbi, tačiau elektros kainų kryptį antrąjį metų pusmetį gali lemti ir dujų rinka.

 

Dujinės elektrinės daugelyje Europos rinkų vis dar veikia kaip kainą formuojantis šaltinis piko valandomis. Todėl brangesnės dujos Europoje paprastai reiškia ir didesnį spaudimą elektros kainoms.

 

Lietuvos verslui svarbu suprasti, kad elektros kaina šiandien nėra vien vietinės rinkos rezultatas. Jei Europoje brangsta dujos, jei didėja konkurencija dėl suskystintų gamtinių dujų krovinių ar atsiranda tiekimo grandinių trikdžių, tai gali atsispindėti ir elektros kainose Baltijos regione. Net jei mūsų regione daugėja atsinaujinančios energijos gamybos, piko metu kainą dažnai formuoja brangesni gamybos šaltiniai.

 

Pastaraisiais mėnesiais elektros kainoms įtakos jau turėjo situacija Šiaurės šalyse – sausesni orai, mažesnis hidroenergijos prieinamumas, silpnesnė vėjo gamyba ir didesnė paklausa. Tuo pat metu dujų kainų pokyčiai, palaikomi geopolitinio neapibrėžtumo, taip pat didino spaudimą elektros kainoms.

Dujų saugyklos ir tiekimo keliai – viena jautriausių rizikų

 

Vienas svarbiausių neapibrėžtumo veiksnių yra Europos dujų saugyklų užpildymo lygis. Jei pavasario pabaigoje ar vasaros pradžioje saugyklų užpildymas yra mažesnis nei įprasta, šalims tenka aktyviau pildyti atsargas vasarą ir rudenį. Tai gali didinti konkurenciją dėl dujų ir išlaikyti kainas jautrias geopolitinėms naujienoms.

 

Papildomą riziką kelia energijos išteklių tiekimo keliai. Įtampa Artimuosiuose Rytuose, galimi suskystintų gamtinių dujų tiekimo trikdžiai per strategiškai svarbius maršrutus, įskaitant Hormūzo sąsiaurį, ir rizikos Kataro LNG infrastruktūrai gali turėti poveikį ne tik Azijos, bet ir Europos rinkai. Sutrikimai šiame regione gali atnaujinti Europos ir Azijos konkurenciją dėl tų pačių LNG krovinių.

 

Dujų rinka šiandien yra globali. Jei tiekimas sutrinka viename regione, poveikį jaučia ir Europa, nes pirkėjai konkuruoja dėl tų pačių krovinių. O kai dujų kaina Europoje išlieka aukšta, tai didina ir elektros kainų riziką. Todėl vertindamas antrąjį pusmetį verslas turėtų stebėti ne tik „Nord Pool“ kainas, bet ir TTF dujų rinką, saugyklų pildymo tempą bei geopolitines rizikas.

Karšta vasara gali didinti vartojimą

 

Dar vienas svarbus veiksnys – orai. Sinoptikams prognozuojant karštą vasarą, galimai didės elektros poreikis vėsinimui, ypač prekybos, logistikos, biurų, gamybos ir paslaugų sektoriuose. Tuo pat metu sausesni orai gali mažinti hidroenergijos gamybą Šiaurės šalyse, kurios turi reikšmingą įtaką kainų lygiui regione.

 

Karštis elektros rinkoje veikia dviem kryptimis. Viena vertus, auga vartojimas vėsinimui. Kita vertus, jei vasara sausa, mažėja hidroenergijos pasiūla. Jei šie veiksniai sutampa su brangesnėmis dujomis ar geopolitine įtampa, elektros kainų svyravimai gali būti ryškesni.

 

Vienas veiksnys pats savaime nebūtinai lemia kainų šuolį. Tačiau kelių rizikų sutapimas – karšta vasara, mažesnė hidroenergijos gamyba, ribotas dujų saugyklų užpildymas ir brangesnės dujos – verslui gali reikšti didesnę sąnaudų planavimo riziką.

Verslui verta peržiūrėti elektros pirkimo strategiją

 

Antrasis metų pusmetis verslui turėtų būti laikotarpis, kai verta iš naujo įsivertinti elektros tiekimo sutartis, kainodaros modelį ir rizikos toleranciją.

 

Įmonėms, kurioms elektra sudaro reikšmingą veiklos sąnaudų dalį, vien pasyvus laukimas gali būti rizikingas. Priklausomai nuo vartojimo profilio ir finansinio planavimo, verslui gali būti aktualūs keli sprendimai: kainos fiksavimas, mišrus modelis, kai dalis vartojimo fiksuojama, o dalis lieka susieta su birža, arba aktyvesnis vartojimo valdymas, perkeliant dalį procesų į pigesnes valandas.

 

Šiuo metu svarbiausia ne bandyti tiksliai atspėti vieną kainos scenarijų, o pasirengti keliems galimiems rinkos variantams. Jei situacija dujų rinkoje stabilizuosis, oro sąlygos bus palankios, o tiekimo rizikos mažės, elektros kainų spaudimas gali būti ribotas. Tačiau alternatyvus scenarijus – karšta ir sausa vasara, mažesnė hidroenergijos pasiūla, lėtesnis dujų saugyklų pildymas ir geopolitiniai tiekimo trikdžiai – verslui būtų kur kas sudėtingesnis.

 

Didžiausią atsparumą turės tos įmonės, kurios elektros pirkimą vertina kaip finansinės rizikos valdymo dalį, o ne vien kaip tiekėjo pasirinkimą. Kuo didesnę dalį įmonės kaštų sudaro elektra, tuo svarbiau turėti aiškią pirkimo strategiją: kokią kainų svyravimo riziką įmonė gali prisiimti, ar dabartinis planas atitinka biudžetą, ar verta dalį kainos fiksuoti ir kiek lankstumo įmonė turi vartojimo valdyme.

 

Neapibrėžtumo laikotarpiais konkurencinį pranašumą įgyja tos įmonės, kurios elektros pirkimą planuoja iš anksto, o ne reaguoja tik kainoms jau pakilus. Aiški strategija, dalies kainos fiksavimas ir vartojimo lankstumas gali padėti suvaldyti sąnaudų svyravimus.

 

Įžvalgos autorius – Mantas Masalskis, „Elektrum Lietuva“ Verslo sprendimų vadovas.”

 

 

Is the Nation Still the Sovereign of the State? (2)

“Article 2 of the Lithuanian Constitution states: “The State of Lithuania is created by the Nation. Sovereignty belongs to the Nation.” “No way – it belongs to the Constitutional Court!” – the constitutional clergy respond to this. It seems that this caste of sovereigns also includes judges who have completed their term, their mistresses, and political supporters.

 

Unfortunately, that is where the list ends. The Nation is forbidden to express its will when it contradicts the ideological positions of the collective oppressors and the interpretations of the Constitution based on them. The Seimas and the Central Election Commission have the right to decide whether to allow the Nation to speak on one issue or another, and the formulation of the question is approved by the Constitutional Court. So, can it be said that the Nation is still the sovereign of this state?

 

The Žalimas of all Žalimas – Dainius Žalimas – claims that the Nation itself has limited its rights by authorizing the Constitutional Court to decide what is legal in Lithuania and what is not. Let's see what the Constitution itself says about this. Articles 102 and 105 of the Constitution authorize the Constitutional Court to verify whether laws adopted are consistent with the Constitution, and other legal acts – with the Constitution and laws. There is no hint of the Constitutional Court's right or, even more so, the monopoly right to interpret the Constitution itself. This court assumed this right itself.

 

Today, the Constitutional Court's invention that a family can be based on emotional relationships, and not only on marriage between a man and a woman and/or kinship ties, is treated as a principle of the Constitution, which is contradicted by the referendum proposed by a group of Seimas members for a clearer definition of family. Although the fact that marriage, family, fatherhood, motherhood and childhood are mentioned in the same 38th article of the Constitution shows the connection between these concepts, it is necessary to clarify this in order to avoid the aforementioned interpretations of the Constitutional Court.

 

It is precisely this will of the Nation that is sought to be prohibited. There are three problems here. First, if the sovereign of the state is the Nation, it is above the Constitution and much above the Constitutional Court. It has the right to amend the Constitution. According to the proportions provided for therein, the Nation can establish a monarchy, change the territorial structure and even incorporate Lithuania into another state. Of course, the task of politicians is to convince the Nation that the sovereignty of the state and the democratic system are values, but the final word, according to the Constitution, belongs only to the Nation itself.

 

However, the statement that the amendment to the Constitution is unconstitutional sounds absurd. The Constitution does not establish the Nation, but the Nation creates, changes, supplements, amends or refines the Constitution. It should be emphasized that a more precise definition of the family is proposed not to be placed in some law that could conflict with the Constitution and where the Constitutional Court could at least theoretically have a say, but in the Constitution itself. This is exclusively the prerogative of the Nation.

 

Secondly, the already mentioned problem is that the Constitutional Court and its veterans identify their ideological provisions and the interpretations of the Constitution based on them with the Constitution itself. When something is not in the text of the Constitution, the doctrine of the Constitution and the spirit of the Constitution are invented. Indeed, the concept of “spirit” is mentioned in the Constitution, but only when talking about the spirit, culture and religion of the Nation, and not about interpretations of the Constitution, and the concept of “doctrine” is not there at all. Thank God and the creators of the Constitution.

 

State doctrine is a feature of anti-democratic regimes. In a democratic state, there may be doctrines of individual politicians, parties, public groups, religious communities, and cultural movements. But a state doctrine that rises above ideological and ideological diversity is nothing more than tyranny.

 

The third problem is that the Constitutional Court has illegally usurped the exclusive powers of the Nation. Both Articles 2 and 3 have been violated, which state without reservation: “No one may restrict or limit the sovereignty of the Nation or appropriate the sovereign powers belonging to the entire Nation.” And the powers of the Constitutional Court specified in Articles 102 and 105 have been substantially exceeded, and this is dissonant with the entire context of the Constitution.

 

When did this happen? It probably began with the “Paxogeite”. For the correct tactical goal – to remove a politically vulnerable person from the position of head of state – a disastrous step was taken at the strategic level, when the Seimas elected by the Nation actually legitimized the usurpation of the highest and unchallenged power by the Constitutional Court. Since then, even the Seimas itself has been a mere decoration, because any of its initiatives can be blocked by the Constitutional Court.

 

According to the classical liberal scheme of separation of powers, the duty of the courts is to execute laws, not to create them. Article 4 of the Constitution states: “The Nation exercises the supreme sovereign power directly or through its democratically elected representatives.” No other methods are provided for. Judges are not elected representatives. Therefore, today’s attempts to legitimize same-sex partnerships through the courts are also unconstitutional.

 

The greatest, although not the most dangerous, absurdity is that the Constitutional Court and its veterans explain the doctrine of the Constitution to the still living creators of the Constitution. The creators say: “We were talking about A”, and the judges retort: ​​“No, you meant B”. If anyone can create something similar to a constitutional doctrine, it is only the Nation, directly or through elected representatives. And it can change it at any time.

 

Even the European Union is not competent to override the will of the Nation. Although the Nation, in Article 69 of the Constitution, allowed the Seimas to adopt constitutional laws and the corresponding law on the supremacy of European Union law was adopted, the Nation can revoke it at any time. Moreover, when Lithuania joined the European Union, it was still far from the current legal regulation. The Nation, if it so wished, could adopt the legal regulations that emerged afterwards with the right to revoke them, and until then these regulations are lower than the will of the Nation.

 

Today, instead of a constitutional state, we have a judicial one, with a distorted principle of separation of powers and the usurped will of the Nation. Representative democracy without direct democracy is simply an elected dictatorship. This seems to be understood by voters of all parliamentary parties: the majority of voters of each of these parties voted for the Family Referendum. Some – because of conservatism, others – because of democracy, and still others – because of both. Therefore, all parliamentary parties are obliged to support the Nation’s right to declare its sovereign will. And not only on this sensitive issue.

 

There is no reason to fear that the Family Referendum will limit someone’s rights to call what they want a family. After all, even today there is no prohibition on calling even a cat a family member. On the contrary, the legal norm being pushed through the courts does not mean freedom, but coercion. Coercion for the majority of society to recognize as family what is not family to them. And in the future – coercion for children who have no place to grow up in such “families.” Who will defend their rights?

 

Whatever the general decision of the Nation in this referendum, it is obvious that the entire system needs to be corrected, as Professors Vytautas Radžvilas and Alvydas Jokubaitis aptly see. The nation is not just an electorate that regularly elects dictators for itself. The nation is constitutionally the sovereign of the state. It is necessary to consolidate this in practice. A family referendum is an excellent first step for this. It is time to reclaim the state.”